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Ethiopian airliner down in Africa

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Ethiopian airliner down in Africa

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Old 25th Mar 2019, 07:22
  #2481 (permalink)  
 
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Smoke and mirrors alright. A bunch of training Captains who have been briefed and have been researching the scenario for ten days and know it is about to occur landed safely? What a surprise. It’s pretty low to publish it in those words in my mind.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 08:25
  #2482 (permalink)  
 
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Boeing will now make the disagree light standard in all new 737 Max planes, and will provide the indicator free of charge for customers who want it.

“All primary flight information required to safely and efficiently operate the 737 Max is included on the baseline primary flight display,” Boeing said. “All 737 Max airplanes display this data in a way that is consistent with pilot training and the fundamental instrument scan pattern that pilots are trained to use.”
If everything required was already fitted, why the change to include extra instruments ?

And likewise, if all for safety and efficiency was already included, the stockholders of the US airlines who spent not inconsequential sums on buyig these extra options will presumably ask their board why money was "squandered" on extra frippery.

Someone at Seattle really needs to tell the seemingly totally disconnected PR-corporate media managers in Chicago a home truth or two.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 08:32
  #2483 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GordonR_Cape
Lena.Kiev



Boeing showed a few pilots how a functioning MCAS operates, and how the trim cutouts work. I assume they did not show AOA disagree, stick shaker and stall warning at the same time? Does anyone feel reassured by this demonstration, given all the issues discussed in this thread?
Dear Gordon
i would hope that the simulations that were run included all the failures experienced by Lionair. If not pretty worthless My guess is that they did include all faults. I’ve done loads of these deja vue replication flights and we always look for that sort of unrealistic replication. The pilots from the third party airlines present want a safe outcome and are not going to approve a botched pantomime of a demo. Yes they do know it’s coming up and are ready. So you approach it from the point of view “Things that now lie in the past, once lay in the future” so you try to see it through the eyes of a regular line pilot who might be on day 5 and of average skill.
Hope that helps?
Yanrair
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 08:38
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And of course how else can you test the scenario at headquarters on Boeing Sims without pilots who have studied the crash in minute detail and are fully expecting it?
All pilots world wide are pretty aware by now. It’s like tying to find a clean jury. Actually you can.
You. Introduce the failure on a regular sim session with a crew who think they are doing something completely different and are not training captains. We do it all the time on sim checks. Then you see how they cope.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 09:12
  #2485 (permalink)  
 
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Boeing is going to hoist itself on its own petard. By previously maintaining that a falsely triggered MCAS event posed no serious risk they pegged out their position. Now they are trotting out well-briefed and coached training pilots to fly their new software and hopefully sing hosannas thereto. A typically venomous tort lawyer will have a field day with the logical disconnect between those two positions.

Either an aircraft is safe when flown by the lowest common denominator crew or it isn’t. And then what?
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 09:15
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Introduce the failure on a regular sim session with a crew who think they are doing something completely different and are not training captains. We do it all the time on sim checks. Then you see how they cope.
But that’s not what they did.....might have been too embarrassing.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 09:18
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Looking beyond the technical fix that Boeing say they are close to completing, what interests me is the global reaction to this fix from airworthiness authorities. It seems likely that the FAA will approve the modification – presumably they are very much in the loop – but what about outside the US? We know at least EASA and the Canadian TCCA have said they will want to independently certify the fix, and possibly go deeper? Are other authorities likely to follow suit? Also one wonders when this process would start; immediately after Boeing release the mod, after the preliminary Ethiopian Airlines crash Report or even the final Lion Air and Ethiopian reports?

And then of course there is the timescale for such approvals or certifications to be implemented; how long would it take, not forgetting the pressure that will be on them from the affected Airlines. Assuming the US 737 Max fleet gets the go ahead and embodies the software update would we see 737 Max’s flying there but still grounded outside the US, maybe for months. One can imagine the American public’s unease at flying on the aircraft, knowing it is still grounded elsewhere.

Lastly, and the worst case scenario for Boeing, what if non-US authorities fail to certify the fix. It seems to me very unwise of Boeing/FAA to permit flying to commence in the US, knowing that other airworthiness authorities haven’t completed their own certification.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:32
  #2488 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by GordonR_Cape
Lena.Kiev



Boeing showed a few pilots how a functioning MCAS operates, and how the trim cutouts work. I assume they did not show AOA disagree, stick shaker and stall warning at the same time? Does anyone feel reassured by this demonstration, given all the issues discussed in this thread?
What a lot of strange responses. From the article above (my highlights)

At the gathering, pilots from the three American carriers, plus two smaller non-US airlines, ran simulated flights designed to mimic the situation that brought down the Lion Air flight in Indonesia last year, using the current and updated software, according to the person briefed on the session.
That seems to mean they would have had AoA disagree and that would give all the symptoms of stick shaker etc. The 'simulators' are not training simulators they are engineering test simulators with actual operational avionics. What would you expect Boeing to do? They had said that the problem with MCAS and AoA disagree could be handled by running the runaway trim NNC. So they had pilots in the simulators with the same effects show that it was correct and that the runaway trim NNC with Stab Trim cut out switched to off, stopped MCAS. Then repeat with new software and show problems do not occur and/or have become easier to solve.

They have a lot of confidence rebuilding to do. It would seem there is a lot of hostility too.


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Old 25th Mar 2019, 11:40
  #2489 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 73qanda
Introduce the failure on a regular sim session with a crew who think they are doing something completely different and are not training captains. We do it all the time on sim checks. Then you see how they cope.
But that’s not what they did.....might have been too embarrassing.
Who would it have been embarrassing for?
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 12:03
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Two crashes bad. Third crash - jail time for all involved. And I would mean top to bottom at Boeing and the FAA.

So lemme see. Boeing rushed some software in in a rush, in a couple of years due to the NEO threat. Now they've rushed some more software in, in a few months, and this is somehow better? Have they even started to write test plans for all the interactions with other systems? Started to look at the AD converters? Perhaps the Boeing board would like to spend next week strapped in a MAX cabin doing high speed touch and go's in Africa with the greenest crew from Ethiopian Airlines/Lionair, people with 50 hours each on type and a messed up sleep pattern on a plane fixed by the greenest mechanics going with airline bosses yelling to keep the schedule going regardless? Is the USAF/USN letting this new software go onto their 737 derivatives?

G
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 12:21
  #2491 (permalink)  
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Started to look at the AD converters?
I find the A to D fault giving just over 20 degrees error such a compelling hypothesis that I'm deeply concerned when all I hear is Boeing rewriting MCAS code and recommending training.

With such an error lurking, it won't matter how many AoA vanes are replaced, or how gently the fault now manifests itself. It will still be a fault.

I'm worrying about nothing. Boeing can't be that blinkered . . . can they?
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 13:00
  #2492 (permalink)  
 
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Fairly obviously, it will be very difficult for the FAA to certify a fix without first having a review of the FDR of the Ethiopian flight. Further difficulties are likely because other authorities may not approve certification without independent assessments of the "fixes". The only solution will be considerably more transparency from the FAA and the Boeing. Public opinion is the final arbiter for the future of the the MAX aircraft and perhaps even Boeing itself.

Having read the contributions, there is still considerable controversy about how the AOA/MCAS/Automation systems actually operates in ALL circumstances. While it seems the intention that MCAS is triggered in manual flight without flaps; it is not absolutely clear what are all the circumstances that it may maintain authority. Certainly, autopilot would appear to be disabled, and even if it were not, it may be affected by AOA errors. It is also not clear that a flap condition totally disables MCAS in all circumstances. There are also discrepancies over the left/right authority and the left and right seat controls and feedback. Above all it is fairly clear that the automated controls are inappropriately attempting to force a nose down condition that must be "rescued" by pilots. It is also not clear that there is enough time available to pilots to rescue that erroneous condition.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 13:47
  #2493 (permalink)  
 
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Update From WSJ this morning:
Ethiopian Airlines’ chief executive said a stall-prevention system on Boeing’s 737 MAX appears to have been activated on a jet that crashed earlier this month—the first time an aviation official familiar with the flight has specifically said that the system could have been switched on during the accident.
Mr. Gebremariam didn’t detail how he had made his determination about MCAS. He doesn’t have access to the precise detail from the data and voice recording devices, but he has listened to recorded radio communications between the cockpit of the flight and the tower at Addis Ababa airport, from which the flight departed on March 10.
“To the best of our knowledge,” MCAS was activated on the flight, Mr. Gebremariam said in the interview, adding though that he wanted to wait for the investigation for conclusive evidence.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 14:03
  #2494 (permalink)  
 
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“yanrair”
regular line pilot who might be on day 5 and of average skill.
you know that many companies roster more than 5 days, don’t you.

and
multiple warnings
you have the answer right there
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 14:52
  #2495 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by yanrair
And of course how else can you test the scenario at headquarters on Boeing Sims without pilots who have studied the crash in minute detail and are fully expecting it?
All pilots world wide are pretty aware by now. It’s like tying to find a clean jury. Actually you can.
You. Introduce the failure on a regular sim session with a crew who think they are doing something completely different and are not training captains. We do it all the time on sim checks. Then you see how they cope.
Even better try it on a 737NG (Not MAX) crew expecting unreliable air speed or similar fault and see what happens. Just mimic the (existing) MCAS actions using the trim.

This would match what Lion air pilots were faced with, before MCAS was 'discovered' behaviour was claimed to match 737NG.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 14:54
  #2496 (permalink)  
 
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That has got to be one of the most lame PR exercises that I have ever seen and betrays a lack of an engineering mindset at America's premiere aerospace company. Congratulations, Boeing, you have proven that any competent pilot could have flown your faulty aircraft before the fix, any competent pilot can fly your aircraft after the fix, so Joe Passenger should have no worries at all about pilot skill and pay when boarding Economy Airlines -- who happen to be your target customer for the Max!

If you can't reproduce the problem, then you don't know what the problem is. I would feel more comfortable if the story were that these elite pilots had a really hard time recovering the aircraft before the fix, and after the fix all was good.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 15:27
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Originally Posted by groundbum
Two crashes bad. Third crash - jail time for all involved. And I would mean top to bottom at Boeing and the FAA.

So lemme see. Boeing rushed some software in in a rush, in a couple of years due to the NEO threat. Now they've rushed some more software in, in a few months, and this is somehow better? Have they even started to write test plans for all the interactions with other systems? Started to look at the AD converters? Perhaps the Boeing board would like to spend next week strapped in a MAX cabin doing high speed touch and go's in Africa with the greenest crew from Ethiopian Airlines/Lionair, people with 50 hours each on type and a messed up sleep pattern on a plane fixed by the greenest mechanics going with airline bosses yelling to keep the schedule going regardless? Is the USAF/USN letting this new software go onto their 737 derivatives?

G
To me I suspect they rushed this plane into production because of Airbus competition and got caught with a faulty product. Its too bad the company did not think through it all and now...? What they lost in terms of product confidence, trust in Boeing and the FAA cannot be bought back,
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 15:46
  #2498 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by groundbum
Perhaps the Boeing board would like to spend next week strapped in a MAX cabin doing high speed touch and go's in Africa with the greenest crew from Ethiopian Airlines/Lionair, people with 50 hours each on type and a messed up sleep pattern on a plane fixed by the greenest mechanics going with airline bosses yelling to keep the schedule going regardless?
Good one , but if only half of what we read here turns out to be correct , they might have to do something like this to restore confidence in the flying public..
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 16:06
  #2499 (permalink)  
 
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At present there are very few sims capable of demonstrating MCAS.

A CAA might justifiably require MAX8 crews be presented Lion and/or Ethiopian scenarios on an MCAS capable sim.
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Old 25th Mar 2019, 16:16
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Why would any operator need to experience a Lion MCAS event if the purpose of the ‘fix’ is to prevent such a failure, or at least its severity.
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