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Atlas Air 767 down/Texas

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Atlas Air 767 down/Texas

Old 12th Mar 2019, 16:19
  #461 (permalink)  
 
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Salute!

Yeah, Bubba, looks like the CVR will provide more than the gruesome data plots.
I mentioned something to 'bird about a possible crew change of position nd then a bit of turbulence that moved bodies about. I am not ruling that out except for the power change.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 16:23
  #462 (permalink)  
 
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That is indeed a headscratcher...

​​​​​​Too bad nothing from the CVR
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 16:26
  #463 (permalink)  
 
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WASHINGTON (March 12, 2019) — The descent of Atlas Air flight 3591 and the communication between air traffic control and the aircraft pilots on Feb. 23, 2019, is depicted in this graphic. Atlas Air flight 3591, carrying cargo for Amazon and the U.S. Postal Service, crashed about 40 miles from Houston’s George Bush Intercontinental Airport. Three people died in the crash. (NTSB Graphic)


This is in agreement with DaveReidUK's ADS-B data analysis posted here the day after the mishap:

Originally Posted by DaveReidUK View Post
The FR24 data, as usual, contains numerous artifacts and synchronisation issues.

That said, once cleaned up it appears to show a slight but unmistakeable climb interrupting the descent just before reaching 6000', starting about 10 seconds before the beginning of the final dive.

It's exaggerated, obviously, in this foreshortened view (apologies for the skewed verticals):








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Old 12th Mar 2019, 16:26
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Also, about this time, the FDR data indicated that some small vertical accelerations consistent with the airplane entering turbulence. Shortly after, when the airplane’s indicated airspeed was steady about 230 knots, the engines increased to maximum thrust, and the airplane pitch increased to about 4° nose up and then rapidly pitched nose down to about 49° in response to column input. The stall warning (stick shaker) did not activate.
FDR, radar, and ADS-B data indicated that the airplane entered a rapid descent on a heading of 270°, reaching an airspeed of about 430 knots. A security camera video captured the airplane in a steep, generally wings-level attitude until impact with the swamp. FDR data indicated that the airplane gradually pitched up to about 20 degrees nose down during the descent.
Question: if pilot slumps over due to incapacitation / heart attack, would the body movement and eventual pitch fit the above sequence of events?
Yeah, I am reaching, but that seems really weird to me.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 16:33
  #465 (permalink)  
 
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There aren't many explanations that would push the throttles and yoke forward at the same time...
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 16:37
  #466 (permalink)  
 
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This is not even speculation, just a "scenario" that might fit that reported throttle and control-input reading.

Massive incapacitation of PF (bird through the windscreen, medical, other), body pitches forward onto both column and (hand) throttle levers. Nose-over forces make it impossible for the other pilot and jumpseater to clear the controls until too late (that possible last-second attempt to get the nose up).

EDIT: I see I'm not alone - but it would certainly require a "Black Swan" event.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 16:43
  #467 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Airbubba View Post
There aren't many explanations that would push the throttles and yoke forward at the same time...
That might also account for why the NTSB aren't saying what's on the CVR.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 16:51
  #468 (permalink)  
 
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Has it been stated that the CVR cannot provide additional information? As I read the release from the NTSB issued on 7th March it suggests that with filtering it may be possible to determine more elements of FD communications and environmental noise. Today's information offered by 9gmax, although I can't see it on the NTSB website, seems only to include ATC communications which are likely to have come from ground recordings. The earlier release talks about crew communications being consistent with a loss control of the aircraft....but this is not really consistent with FD actions. As with the ET accident, I find the wording of the information that is being issued by key agencies to be interesting - the text from NTSB refers to 'engines increased to maximum thrust', but does not mention TL movement. But, perhaps I am reading too much into this.

Hopefully there is enough information available or ultimately accessible to enable some of the present questions to be answered.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 16:57
  #469 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by LookingForAJob View Post
Hopefully there is enough information available or ultimately accessible to enable some of the present questions to be answered.
I strongly suspect that the answers to some of these questions are already known.

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Old 12th Mar 2019, 17:08
  #470 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by 9gmax View Post
FDR data indicated that the airplane gradually pitched up to about 20 degrees nose down during the descent.
Well, so much about ad-hominem attacks on my primitive video analysis in which I suggested they were indeed pulling up.

The excerpt of what NTSB is sharing is interesting and basically is saying „not Beoing‘s fault“ - important due to ET crash. However, it offers no explanation to what initiated the maneuver, which could be very unfair to the crew. Fly Dubai was also not a „black swan”.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 17:36
  #471 (permalink)  

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Sadly this looks likely to be a sudden and deliberate act.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 18:36
  #472 (permalink)  

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Holy [email protected]
Highjack, suicide, mental illness on the flight deck, Egypt 990 Allah Akbar, or what.
Hopefully none of the above..
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 18:46
  #473 (permalink)  
 
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An unexpected and sad turn in this accident....
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 18:53
  #474 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RoyHudd View Post
Sadly this looks likely to be a sudden and deliberate act.
Sadly there aren't too many other realistic scenarios. Still the Questions is: Germanwings or hefty spatial disorientation. The fact that they were IMC, entering turbulence and have stopped the descent very shortly before (which will create somatogravic illusions of climbing) plus the fact that they started to try and recover once visual with the ground makes me tend more to the latter scenario. Still a very sobering scenario.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 19:31
  #475 (permalink)  
 
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Just wait for the answers

There's still a lot of information to come out. This guy is a respected former investigator whom most likely is talking with former colleagues.

Gregory Allen "Greg" Feith is an American former Senior Air Safety Investigator with the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB). Today on Denver News Channel 9, while commenting on the 737 Max crashes, Greg Feith said this, verbatim:

“...and a lot of carriers overseas, they are so automation dependent that they don’t know, based on their training, when to intervene, and if there is a problem they continue to try to use the automation. We’ve seen that now in three accidents. Lion Air, Ethiopian, and in fact, Atlas Air, the one that crashed in Houston. The automation was still coupled, the pilots didn’t hand fly the airplane when they lost control and even through the recovery they were fighting the automation.”
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 19:39
  #476 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by RoyHudd View Post
Sadly this looks likely to be a sudden and deliberate act.
Final descending approach to an airport at the end of a flight, is an odd time to choose suicide. Either pilot incapacitation or some loss of control upset in turbulence seems far more likely to me.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 19:40
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Originally Posted by LookingForAJob View Post
Has it been stated that the CVR cannot provide additional information? As I read the release from the NTSB issued on 7th March it suggests that with filtering it may be possible to determine more elements of FD communications and environmental noise. Today's information offered by 9gmax, although I can't see it on the NTSB website, seems only to include ATC communications which are likely to have come from ground recordings. The earlier release talks about crew communications being consistent with a loss control of the aircraft....but this is not really consistent with FD actions. As with the ET accident, I find the wording of the information that is being issued by key agencies to be interesting - the text from NTSB refers to 'engines increased to maximum thrust', but does not mention TL movement. But, perhaps I am reading too much into this.

Hopefully there is enough information available or ultimately accessible to enable some of the present questions to be answered.
link : https://www.ntsb.gov/investigations/...CA19MA086.aspx
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 19:47
  #478 (permalink)  
 
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Ahh, thanks, I was looking for a news/media release.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 19:49
  #479 (permalink)  
 
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Atlas Air, the one that crashed in Houston. The automation was still coupled, the pilots didn’t hand fly the airplane when they lost control and even through the recovery they were fighting the automation.”
Imagine that! The AP has a dive bomb mode.
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Old 12th Mar 2019, 19:54
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Originally Posted by 9gmax View Post
The phraseology in part of that link now reads
The airplane then pitched nose down over the next 18 seconds to about 49° in response to nose-down elevator deflection. The stall warning (stick shaker) did not activate.
Previously the bolded part said "a control input".
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