Pilot shortage - myth or reality?

[hec7or]

I think there’s a clue in the username.....

[bafanguy]

Originally Posted by N1EPR

There are thousands of US pilots commuting to work in foreign lands. I know most or all of them would be quick to take a job in the US if the pay was right.

Well, in many but not all places in the US, the pay IS right but will come with some affiliated considerations that might not suit everyone, e.g., going to the bottom of a seniority list, etc. Some expats have come back with success while others tried and failed. They can claim there's no age bias in their hiring but I just don't believe that despite seeing them trot out an example or two of some 50 y/o candidate. And experience ? Do they think you might just have a little too much experience to be trainable according to their notions of cultural fit ? They'll never admit that...

But more importantly, it's not as easy as just agreeing to come home to one of those positions with the good pay and career potential. The HR types (and that includes those with a license and medical in their pockets) have some notion of ignoring experience and technical competence in favor of something called a good "cultural" fit...you know, a proper employee. These 30 potential years of employment suitability are determined by 30 minutes across from an interview panel and some shrink-related testing.

They will (and currently do...even the lesser quality carriers) pass up untold numbers of experienced candidates here in the US and have constructed a gauntlet of hurdles to even getting an interview: career "expos" where you spend money and time just getting there to stand in lines for hours for the "opportunity" for a few minutes face to face with some recruiter, meet-the-chief-pilot events (same idea as expo but fewer numbers and much harder to get an invitation), video interviews, online application processes that stymie even the most astute applicant if not completely prevent his data from being submitted at all in the form allegedly demanded by the HR types. All this to just get an interview.

So, all of this mumbo-jumbo in lieu of hiring experienced aviators... proven entities...and then convincing them they made the right choice in accepting the job by not treating them like dirt once on the payroll thereby creating a suitable employee.

[and no, I'm not looking for a job nor is any job looking for me...I just observe]

[eiffel]

It would be interesting to know the 2019 recruitment figures for european airlines……
EasyJet, Eurowings, Volotea, Ryanair, Lufthansa, BA, Air France, Wizzair, Vueling….

[MaverickPrime]

I’m just an outsider looking in, but I see a perfect storm brewing in the USA that could potentially leave them short of pilots.

Take a look at Ryanair here in the EU. A cadet leaves flying school with 250hrs, joins Ryanair straight on to a 737. In their 2nd year they are earning equivalent $98k, 4 years they are a captain earning equivalent $168k, 8 years they are a TRE(check pilot) earning $191k. They can be based near home and have 12/13 days a month off excluding standby duties. They also dont have to pay for their healthcare or kids education and if they’ve any sense, they will pick a low tax EU country to base themselves in. Incidentally Ryanair has a perfect 30 year safety record.

Whilst salaries in the USA can be much higher than this, it takes a long long time to get them. IMVHO, there are no opportunities like Ryanair in the USA and I think that is detering a lot of people from aiming for the airlines in the USA. We moan and groan in the EU about getting a break in the industry, but to be honest I think things in europe are better for pilots than just about any other part of the world.

[MaverickPrime]

Originally Posted by eiffel

It would be interesting to know the 2019 recruitment figures for european airlines……
EasyJet, Eurowings, Volotea, Ryanair, Lufthansa, BA, Air France, Wizzair, Vueling….

Ryanair recruited 1100 pilots in 2018, majority cadets.

[JPJP]

Originally Posted by FlightDetent

Exactly my point.

Southwest has nearly triple the fleet size (~ 750), and makes ~ 4000 landings per day. I’ve never seen a comparative breakdown of landing incidents between Easyjet and Southwest. How about you ?

[FlightDetent]

Originally Posted by JPJP

Southwest has nearly triple the fleet size (~ 750), and makes ~ 4000 landings per day. I’ve never seen a comparative breakdown of landing incidents between Easyjet and Southwest. How about you?

I did not come here to pick up a fight, as you will clearly see in the original post. The ratio seems to be 4:1. Given the difference in operating size, extent of which I was not completely aware of, that looks allright.

[Meikleour]

"Incidentally Ryanair has a perfect 30 year safety record."

I take it that you haven't followed RYR for very long or is your definition of safety simply not killing anyone?!

[polax52]

Originally Posted by Who stole my meds

No not usually. I'm far from a top gun. But when the Captain is an obnoxious piece of work it is quite satisfying when I can fly the aircraft better than him.
Wouldn't you agree?

Lets be honest. You sound obnoxious as well. Rightly or wrongly the Captain is the Captain. If you respect the Captains which you fly with then pretty likely you'll soon be a Captain yourself..

[cumulustratus]

Originally Posted by Who stole my meds

No not usually. I'm far from a top gun. But when the Captain is an obnoxious piece of work it is quite satisfying when I can fly the aircraft better than him.
Wouldn't you agree?

Great that you take satisfaction in doing your job well. You do realise that a pilot's role is so much more than handling the aircraft, right? That's why we have the autopilot.

[ph-sbe]

Originally Posted by MaverickPrime

Take a look at Ryanair here in the EU. A cadet leaves flying school with 250hrs, joins Ryanair straight on to a 737. In their 2nd year they are earning equivalent $98k, 4 years they are a captain earning equivalent $168k, 8 years they are a TRE(check pilot) earning $191k.

Whereas I got my CPL+MEP+IR and instead of flying students for the rest of my life I learned how to code. Now I fly and teach for fun and make way, way more than your TRE pilot in Silicon Valley.

Everyone on this forum that was able to learn how fly and operate large aircraft is more than intelligent enough to be able to learn how to code. If you get treated like crap at an airline, you go do something that pays better. It always helps to have a plan B.

If that pilot shortage really comes, I always have the option to join the airlines: if the price is right.

[JPJP]

Originally Posted by FlightDetent

I did not come here to pick up a fight, as you will clearly see in the original post. The ratio seems to be 4:1. Given the difference in operating size, extent of which I was not completely aware of, that looks allright.

No worries. My question was genuine, not snark. I hadn’t seen any comparisons

[speedrestriction]

The comment about the average new hires having 250hrs to European locos is not accurate - whilst cadets do make a significant proportion of RHS recruitment, there is also a stream of experienced individuals being recruited to both seats. Last month I was working with a recently hired SFO who joined from a legacy European carrier with 16(!) years experience.

[polax52]

Originally Posted by speedrestriction

The comment about the average new hires having 250hrs to European locos is not accurate - whilst cadets do make a significant proportion of RHS recruitment, there is also a stream of experienced individuals being recruited to both seats. Last month I was working with a recently hired SFO who joined from a legacy European carrier with 16(!) years experience.

Poor bugger, he should have learnt to code.

[mustafagander]

It makes you wonder - 16 years as F/O??

[Easyheat]

In CPH/SAS it is 25+ years before LH Captain.

16 years is nothing if it is LH in a European Legacy Carrier.

[Denti]

Originally Posted by mustafagander

It makes you wonder - 16 years as F/O??

Not that unusual in some legacy carriers in the EU. Worked for one where the average time to command was 16 to 17 years.

Still stupid to join as an SFO, buy a command via P2F and then join on the left side, it is easier and faster than internal upgrades.

[iggy]

Originally Posted by Denti

...buy a command via P2F and then join on the left side, it is easier and faster than internal upgrades.

As usual, pilots are their own worst enemy.

[RatherBeFlying]

Originally Posted by ph-sbe

Whereas I got my CPL+MEP+IR and instead of flying students for the rest of my life I learned how to code. Now I fly and teach for fun and make way, way more than your TRE pilot in Silicon Valley.

Everyone on this forum that was able to learn how fly and operate large aircraft is more than intelligent enough to be able to learn how to code. If you get treated like crap at an airline, you go do something that pays better. It always helps to have a plan B.

If that pilot shortage really comes, I always have the option to join the airlines: if the price is right.

Some decades ago I was much in the same position and found coding paid multiples better than any available flying position.

Then I got downsized at 55 into a job market that was just as brutal to old coders as it was to low hour pilots.

So keep building that Plan A as you will likely be needing it not too long after you turn 35

[flash8]

Everyone on this forum that was able to learn how fly and operate large aircraft is more than intelligent enough to be able to learn how to code. If you get treated like crap at an airline, you go do something that pays better. It always helps to have a plan B.

Indeed I went from a Computer Science degree to a well paid IT Consultancy position, that funded a CPL/IR after resignation, then 737-300, and then back to IT/Government consultancy. I recall many Captains after I stated my previous pre-airline salary look at me as if I were crazy to give it up, and more than one told me I was foolish.

There are youtube videos of a recent BA A320 captain in his early 30's give up flying to code... starting from his last days up front to his new career.