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Safest airline is Finnair or Qantas ?

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Safest airline is Finnair or Qantas ?

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Old 3rd Jan 2019, 23:05
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Safest airline is Finnair or Qantas ?

Each time in the new-born year I'm staggered seeing two worlds collide.

In World1 there is a change on top Finnair displaced Emirates as the first airline in the world

Whereas in World2 it steadfastly stays all the same https://www.traveldailynews.com/post...ntas-is-on-top

Can anyone see through this without becoming a non-believer in such ratings at all ?
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Old 3rd Jan 2019, 23:45
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If only there was a ratings site that rated the ratings sites ...
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 05:00
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Originally Posted by readywhenreaching View Post
Each time in the new-born year I'm staggered seeing two worlds collide.

In World1 there is a change on top Finnair displaced Emirates as the first airline in the world

Whereas in World2 it steadfastly stays all the same https://www.traveldailynews.com/post...ntas-is-on-top

Can anyone see through this without becoming a non-believer in such ratings at all ?
I'm not sure what the problem is. Those ratings include some things that are easily (fairly) measurable, like safety records (should it be fatalities per passenger-kilometre flown, or per passenger take-off/landing, or per aircraft-kilometre?--but still, they're countable); and some things that involve a measure of judgement. Since the safest airlines are all very safe, the differences between the top ten are going to be very small indeed, so there's going to be uncertainty about the precise ranking, and whether an airline comes out at, say, number 3 or number 5 is pretty meaningless for a punter buying a seat.

Long ago, I remember a comparison of airlines based on the insurance premiums they were charged; that wasn't perfect, because very large airlines, apparently, got a discount just on the basis of volume, but still, insurance companies are professionals at risk. I don't suppose that information is available these days.

Or have I missed the point entirely?
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 07:36
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Since the safest airlines are all very safe, the differences between the top ten are going to be very small indeed, so there's going to be uncertainty about the precise ranking, and whether an airline comes out at, say, number 3 or number 5 is pretty meaningless for a punter buying a seat.
How precisely does one measure something that having not occurred deems an airline 'safe'?
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 14:39
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Originally Posted by Rated De View Post
How precisely does one measure something that having not occurred deems an airline 'safe'?
Quite. I once worked for an (UK) airline that did virtually no maintenance whatsoever, 4/5 of the fleet were unfit to fly in IFR, no defects allowed in the tech log, expectation to bust minima routinely...
Astonishingly they only had one accident (and naturally failed to report it) but despite a public 100% safety record they were the most dangerous outfit imaginable.
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Old 4th Jan 2019, 20:46
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I was impressed by one UK newspaper headline stating: Safest Airlines for 2019. How useful for them to have been able to predict the rest of year. It is not just statistics they do not understand.
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 00:35
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Originally Posted by Rated De View Post
How precisely does one measure something that having not occurred deems an airline 'safe'?
Well, I think one measure, which is sort of accepted generally, is that the more chances something has to happen, but it doesn't, then, on the whole, as a rule of thumb, in default of any better measures, or would you rather use a horoscope? it is less likely to happen the next time. Which is consoling if that thing that doesn't happen is a crash.

I am well aware that safety is a well developed discipline of which I am ignorant, but I'm still, genuinely, puzzled as to why those particular routine articles arouse ire. Is it that they include in the list of safe airlines a company which is known to be operating unsafely, and whose absence of accidents is purely a result of luck?

When it comes to major carriers, I assume that ranking is very unreliable, but isn't there a certain use in attempting to pick out the low-cost operators that will get you there, in however much discomfort, as opposed to the operators who are likely not to get you to even near to your destination?
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 06:16
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Well, I think one measure, which is sort of accepted generally, is that the more chances something has to happen, but it doesn't, then, on the whole, as a rule of thumb, in default of any better measures, or would you rather use a horoscope? it is less likely to happen the next time. Which is consoling if that thing that doesn't happen is a crash. I am well aware that safety is a well developed discipline of which I am ignorant, but I'm still, genuinely, puzzled as to why those particular routine articles arouse ire. Is it that they include in the list of safe airlines a company which is known to be operating unsafely, and whose absence of accidents is purely a result of luck?



Quite
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 11:51
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Also look at route structure. Of all the majors, QF (apparently) have the fewest global destinations on their network - you could therefore argue that their threat exposure is significantly lower than other airlines flying all around Asia/Africa/S.America etc and this would certainly keep them up at the top. Maintenance standards are obviously high though and they identified very early on during QA assessments that the threat from fake parts coming from a few dubious countries warranted a major shift in focus and I believe it was they who set the standard for tracking non-OEM parts.

As has been alluded to, accident reports are not the true indicator of safety. Not 1 airline publishes any information on "almost" events that were saved by crew actions!
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 17:11
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Originally Posted by petrichor View Post
As has been alluded to, accident reports are not the true indicator of safety. Not 1 airline publishes any information on "almost" events that were saved by crew actions!
Yes, but if you're implying that such events are not shared within the industry I would beg to differ. While things may be much different in certain countries, activities like the FAA's ASAP Infoshare conferences allow airlines, airline unions and the FAA to speak freely of their experiences, problems and solutions. And by law they are shielded from lawyers and the press.

To not report something under ASAP is likely to bring far graver consequences than admitting someone or something screwed up and trying to figure out why. That's the whole point.

To get back on topic, though, I agree that published numbers of this type are mostly meaningless, and less so in anything that relies on advertising revenue from circulation numbers...
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Old 5th Jan 2019, 21:31
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Originally Posted by Carbon Bootprint View Post
Yes, but if you're implying that such events are not shared within the industry I would beg to differ. While things may be much different in certain countries, activities like the FAA's ASAP Infoshare conferences allow airlines, airline unions and the FAA to speak freely of their experiences, problems and solutions. And by law they are shielded from lawyers and the press.

To not report something under ASAP is likely to bring far graver consequences than admitting someone or something screwed up and trying to figure out why. That's the whole point.
Exactly - things such as 21.3 reports are required for the more serious occurrences and what requires a 21.3 report is clearly spelled out in the regulations (e.g. in-flight shutdowns, RTO's above a certain speed (60 knots IIRC), etc.). Failure to supply such reports when required will get you seriously crossed up with the authorities.
Boeing keeps an on-line data base called COSP - Continued Operational Safety Program - where all the incoming reports are posted (I'd scan COSP one a week looking for events of interest to my area). The FAA has access to COSP (although my understanding was their access didn't include who the operator was) and they'd sometimes contact us asking for additional information. However as Carbon states, those reports are not available to the press or the public.

I don't consider those press ratings to be worth the pixels they're posted with. Didn't Emirates end up near the top of one of those 'safest' lists right after they crashed a 777 by attempting an aborted landing with the throttles at idle?
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Old 6th Jan 2019, 07:27
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So accepting that the published lists in the press are oversimplified (as are all such ranking lists), is there any way in which a prospective traveller, flying into an unfamiliar part of the world where the airlines well-known to them don't operate, can choose between more safe and less safe airlines?

There seems to be a tendency to go rather rapidly from pointing out the shortfalls in rankings of this kind, to suggesting that no sort of ranking has any value, or perhaps that airline safety is a dark mystery, only known to insiders.
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Old 6th Jan 2019, 12:30
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Originally Posted by petrichor View Post
Also look at route structure. Of all the majors, QF ............... Maintenance standards are obviously high though and they identified very early on during QA assessments that the threat from fake parts coming from a few dubious countries warranted a major shift in focus and I believe it was they who set the standard for tracking non-OEM parts.

this is not a new problem. EK Gann wrote there were lots of fake Boeing parts, and that a 100% reliable way of picking them was by glancing at the price tag.... this will not have changed CMIIW
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Old 6th Jan 2019, 14:37
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If we are talking about the same german flight safety bureau doing these rankings every year, I wouldn't take their's overly serious. Homebrewn self-made statistics. Using some very questionable statistical standards and methods. Although they changed their system some years ago they still are more hobbyists than researchers. They make a living from selling "safety expertises" to individual travelers. Like aunty Else going to the baleares islands wanting to know the "safety ranking" of her airline.

Here is some more robust safety information to be found:
https://aviation-safety.net
The Aviation Herald

Last edited by Kerosene Kraut; 6th Jan 2019 at 18:44.
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Old 6th Jan 2019, 14:43
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Originally Posted by meleagertoo View Post
Quite. I once worked for an (UK) airline that did virtually no maintenance whatsoever, 4/5 of the fleet were unfit to fly in IFR, no defects allowed in the tech log, expectation to bust minima routinely...
Astonishingly they only had one accident (and naturally failed to report it) but despite a public 100% safety record they were the most dangerous outfit imaginable.
So, how did you like working in Southend, then?
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 05:11
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Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut View Post
If we are talking about the same german flight safety bureau doing these rankings every year, I wouldn't take their's overly serious. Homebrewn self-made statistics. Using some very questionable statistical standards and methods. Although they changed their system some years ago they still are more hobbyists than researchers. They make a living from selling "safety expertises" to individual travelers. Like aunty Else going to the baleares islands wanting to know the "safety ranking" of her airline.

Here is some more robust safety information to be found:
https://aviation-safety.net
The Aviation Herald
Those two sites are well-known, but as far as I've seen, they don't help with choice of airline. Let us leave out cheap cracks about Aunts going to the Balearics, and consider a real question. Suppose someone is travelling to and in the PRC. Chinese production and services range from exquisite near-perfection to cynical crap; a potential traveller would be glad of information on where any particular airline sits on that spectrum. Not whether they're 2 or 3, or 16 or 17, but crudely whether they're ok or a bit dodgy. Or. perhaps, there is a floor under the quality of Chinese airlines, so that even the least good ones are quite decent: it would be reassuring to know that. Similarly, I assume there are some decent airlines in Africa: there would be real value in even a rough guide there.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 14:44
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Oh, aviation-safety.net and Aviation Herald are quite helpful if you are willing to do your own research.

Go do aviaton-safety.net, country index and look for your airline and possible also its subsidiaries or former names / entities. There was a time when AF had a hull loss every other year, as compared to other legacy carriers of similar size that had one ever 20 to 40 years. These days, they are doing much better, but if you look at the incidents, there are still quite a lot can be attributed to carelessness or complacency.

You can apply this approach to any airline or airplane type. However, your I wouldn't bet that all incidents in Chinese airlines get first reported to the authorties and then make it into these two sites.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 17:32
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Originally Posted by Kerosene Kraut View Post
...Here is some more robust safety information to be found:
https://aviation-safety.net
The Aviation Herald
How can I rate an airline in terms of operational safety on AvHerald or ASN ? They all about singular accident cases.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 17:40
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Originally Posted by readywhenreaching View Post
How can I rate an airline in terms of operational safety on AvHerald or ASN ? They all about singular accident cases.
The simple answer is you can't.
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Old 7th Jan 2019, 17:54
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Looking back doesn‘t necessarily tell you everything about the future. There is the old saying that any airline considering itself safe is in fact unsafe. Best advice might be to avoid government blacklisted airlines and maybe prefer profitable ones.
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