Indonesian aircraft missing off Jakarta

[chumley]

Originally Posted by mickjoebill

Another incident where emergency locator beacons did not operate.

mjb

Maybe the beacon is operating but submerged. Bit early to make that comment.

[A Squared]

Originally Posted by mickjoebill

Another incident where emergency locator beacons did not operate.

mjb

In a case where a tugboat crew observed the plane crash into the water, this seems to be a point of relatively minor academic interest.

[Birdstrike737]

It’s OK to offer a hypothesis!

To those of you admonishing your colleagues for tossing around first-impressions while “bodies are still warm,” THAT’S WHAT WE DO! WE’RE PILOTS! This thread is not a news organization, it’s a crowded pub. It’s OK to put your bets on the table about what happened before the investigation has even begun, much less ended.
Maybe someone should start a different thread titled “Indonesia 737 Max crash: FACTS ONLY.” And stay there. And wait.

[A Squared]

Originally Posted by Birdstrike737

To those of you admonishing your colleagues for tossing around first-impressions while “bodies are still warm,” THAT’S WHAT WE DO! WE’RE PILOTS! This thread is not a news organization, it’s a crowded pub. It’s OK to put your bets on the table about what happened before the investigation has even begun, much less ended.

I don't disagree with you on the larger principle, that it's natural and reasonable to speculate on what might have been involved. I do however, object to the bigots who, on the basis virtually no information at all, beyond "airplane lost control and crashed" have immediately leaped to the conclusion that the crash is certainly the result of the incompetency of the aircrew, simply because of their assumed ethnicity.

[wheels_down]

That drop at the end is fairly rapid. 30k ft per minute fall. After maintaining whilst a still fairly rough attempt at level flight, It’s like they lost the fin or something.

Elevator/Fin related?

[garpal gumnut]

Originally Posted by A Squared

I don't disagree with you on the larger principle, that it's natural and reasonable to speculate on what might have been involved. I do however, object to the bigots who, on the basis virtually no information at all, beyond "airplane lost control and crashed" have immediately leaped to the conclusion that the crash is certainly the result of the incompetency of the aircrew, simply because of their assumed ethnicity.

Agree.
One can fly from one end of the "known" UK to t'other in just over twice the length of the projected flight time for JT610. And with jolly fellows of the right ethnicity.
Shall we drop into Cardiff or Manchester chaps, a bit of vibration.

gg

[Lord Farringdon]

Originally Posted by Birdstrike737

To those of you admonishing your colleagues for tossing around first-impressions while “bodies are still warm,” THAT’S WHAT WE DO! WE’RE PILOTS! This thread is not a news organization, it’s a crowded pub. It’s OK to put your bets on the table about what happened before the investigation has even begun, much less ended.
Maybe someone should start a different thread titled “Indonesia 737 Max crash: FACTS ONLY.” And stay there. And wait.

Well said Birdstrike737. It's absolutely natural whenever an accident or disaster occurs that we ask 'what happened?". In the absence of a coherent answer we postulate, theorize and generally second guess. But what we don't do, or at least shouldn't do is start apportioning blame on the basis of racist remarks about crew and perceived in-competencies as some on here have already done. Aviation has a lotta gotcha's and some very good crews have succumbed to them perhaps even more so in this day and age of multiple computer controlled systems with algorithms and logic flows that make your head spin even on a good day.Prayers and blessings to all the families.

[torquemada60]

Lion and Malindo

Very sad and prayers and thoughts to families. But I am not surprised. Lion air and that other dreadful airline called Malindo should be investigated for safety issues.

[BAe 146-100]

Just heard From a Indonesian pilot who is in the know, highly suspected it was unreliable airspeed and unusual attitude ....

[TheEdge]

Originally Posted by Birdstrike737

To those of you admonishing your colleagues for tossing around first-impressions while “bodies are still warm,” THAT’S WHAT WE DO! WE’RE PILOTS! This thread is not a news organization, it’s a crowded pub. It’s OK to put your bets on the table about what happened before the investigation has even begun, much less ended.
Maybe someone should start a different thread titled “Indonesia 737 Max crash: FACTS ONLY.” And stay there. And wait.

Well said Birdstrike !!

[Polska]

Pitot covers still installed?

[GlueBall]

Hello Captain . . .

Originally Posted by A Squared

I don't disagree with you on the larger principle, that it's natural and reasonable to speculate on what might have been involved. I do however, object to the bigots who, on the basis virtually no information at all, beyond "airplane lost control and crashed" have immediately leaped to the conclusion that the crash is certainly the result of the incompetency of the aircrew, simply because of their assumed ethnicity.

But that's why YOU have a brain to differentiate and sort it out in your mind, because not everyone here is an aviation professional.

[sabenaboy]

Reader comment on Avherald says the aircraft had been snagged the day before for unreliable airspeed and alt disagree.

[Localiser Green]

The same aircraft apparently had an unreliable speed issue on the previous flight from Bali to Jakarta last night. This was reported by the pilots according to Bloomberg.

FR24 data from that flight shows the aircraft enters a descent after takeoff, with increasing speed, similar to the event which happened on this flight at approximately 2,000ft. However on the DPS-CGK flight it happened at around 5,500ft.

14:25:21 - 5,500ft - 282kt
14:25:48 - 4,625ft - 324kt
14:26:13 - 5,400ft - 303kt
14:26:25 - 6,300ft - 276kt
14:26:37 - 6,600ft - 265kt
14:26:49 - 7,400ft - 247kt



Suggests around 2,000fpm descent rate with 42kt speed gain, followed by 3,000fpm climb losing 77kt. That's not a normal climb profile so something went wrong here, assuming the ADS data is accurate.

[garpal gumnut]

Originally Posted by StormyKnight

Comparison of the flight the day before. Note the Different Aircraft registrations.
Top Graph 28/10/2018 B738M PK-LQP

Bottom Graph 27/10/2018 B738 PK-LPQ

Looks like a significant upset very shortly after take-off.
Altitude dropped around the 2 minute mark with a subsequent increase in air speed.

Source: https://www.flightradar24.com/data/f...jt610#1e5ff318
The Pilots appear to be struggling to maintain a steady altitude for the whole 10 minutes of the flight.

This is the moot post.

What happened between 22.53. and 23.23.

gg

[logansi]

Is it possible the ADS data is corrupted by unreliable speed data - which source does it use.

[StormyKnight]

Originally Posted by Polska

Pitot covers still installed?

Or just 1... Flightradar data shows resonable airspeed, maybe a little high for so early in the flight, but if the pilots were getting a stall warning, they may have increased the throttle setting.
I wonder where the flightradar data transmitted from the plane comes from, i.e. which pitot tibe or which flight computer? Is it the one currently selected as the main by the pilots?
If just on pitot was faulty, airspeed & stick shaker warnings will operate until it is determined which one needs to be disabled. This should leave two to work with. How quickly the faulty one can be determined is an interesting question.
I hope the pilot in control was flying the plane rather than trying to diagnose the issue.

[A Squared]

Originally Posted by logansi

Is it possible the ADS data is corrupted by unreliable speed data - which source does it use.

The Speeds broadcast as part of the ADS-B information are GPS derived. Mode S ES has the capability of transmitting Indicated Airspeed but that’s an optional feature.

[WingNut60]

Indonesia travel advice
Monday, 29 October 2018

Latest update
Following the fatal crash of a Lion Air plane on 29 October 2018, Australian government officials and contractors have been instructed not to fly on Lion Air. This decision will be reviewed when the findings of the crash investigation are clear (see Local travel). .......

Did anyone ever see any report for the Bali ditching other than the initial 30 day report?

[jolihokistix]

The last line of this article in Japanese quotes Indonesian aviation sources saying that the pilot(s) requested a return to Jakarta before the aircraft disappeared.
189?????????????? ??????????????????20?????????AFPBB News
同機はレーダーから消える前に、ジャカルタへの帰還の許可を求めていたとしている。(c)AFP
"This same aircraft was requesting permission to return to Jakarta before it disappeared from radar."