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Indonesian aircraft missing off Jakarta

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Indonesian aircraft missing off Jakarta

Old 31st Oct 2018, 05:32
  #281 (permalink)  
 
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Possible finding of aircraft:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-10-...found/10451774
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 06:21
  #282 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by krismiler View Post
Malaysian Airlines had unreliable airspeed recently on an A330 out of Brisbane.
They sure did - they got airborne with the pitot covers still on. Preliminary report here: https://www.atsb.gov.au/publications...r/ao-2018-053/
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 06:49
  #283 (permalink)  
 
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Lion Air - the worst airline in the world,hard to believe but no African airline is even worse but it is true, it had the worst track record even before this accident, over 12 accidents/incidents since 2002. I suspect it is no coincidence, the “quality” of this airline and this crash are directly related.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 07:06
  #284 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by AndyJS View Post
"The jet that crashed in Indonesia flew erratically during a flight the previous evening and experienced a "technical problem", according to flight tracking website FlightRadar24.
After taking off from Denpasar on the holiday island of Bali on Sunday evening - the day before the crash - the Lion Air Boeing 737 MAX jet reported unusual variations in altitude and airspeed at the beginning of the flight.This included an 875ft drop over 27 seconds, when it would normally be ascending, before stabilising and flying on to Jakarta"

https://news.sky.com/story/lion-air-...crash-11539864
The Sky News article you cite conflates a number of different sources, including a story that originally appeared in Detik that has since been retracted. Sky News, for example, quotes Conchita Caroline — who, it's now been confirmed, flew on a different aircraft (same route, same airline, different time), not PQ-LQP. I've looked over the ADS-B data from JT43 on the previous night, and there was indeed a loss of a few hundred feet during climb. So keep this kind of thing in mind while considering what parts of the Sky article (or any article) you find credible, and which should be disregarded. English-language media sometimes have trouble keeping up with the Indonesian-language media on fast-moving stories like this, and some of the rules they play by are different.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 08:32
  #285 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Longtimer View Post
Despite a vessel seeing the aircraft strike the ocean and the relative low depths involved, I find it amazing that they are still unable to locate the wreck.
Given the speed with which the aircraft apparently hit the sea (based on the data we're not supposed to mention), it's likely that there is no "wreck" in the sense of large, recognisable parts of an aircraft structure, with the possible exception of the engines.

Look at the media photos of the debris recovered so far, for example.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 08:48
  #286 (permalink)  
 
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I find it amazing that they are still unable to locate the wreck.
Maybe because there is no "wreck", just a million small pieces of debris scattered over the ocean bed...
Look at the ROW debris field on the runway. At 500 mph the water surface is not significantly softer than a concrete runway.

Unless the aircraft already broke apart in the air (which slows down the pieces, no longer having an aerodynamic shape), we cannot expect many large pieces of wreckage left.
Which means the investigators will be mainly left with the CVR/FDR data and not too much "hardware" which still tells a story.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 08:56
  #287 (permalink)  
 
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Sixty-foot section of something found. See Captain Bloggs above, post #285
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 09:19
  #288 (permalink)  
 
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https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/se...er-plane-crash

The blame game has started or the deflective smoke screen.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 09:24
  #289 (permalink)  
 
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Classic third world response , find someone to blame and get rid of them ! Problem solved ! It will never happen again ! CVR and FDR still floating around the bottom of the sea but they have it sorted .
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 10:33
  #290 (permalink)  
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“Today we will replace Lion’s technical director with somebody else, along with engineers being in charge of and recommending the flight,” Transportation Minister Budi Karya Sumadi said, according to Detik news.
I hope the NTSC were able to interview them before they were 'replaced'. If not, information useful to the investigation may be lost.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 10:33
  #291 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix View Post
Sixty-foot section of something found. See Captain Bloggs above, post #285
Reportedly 72 ft (22 m). If it turns out to be part of the aircraft, that's pretty close to the length of half a 737-8 wing with the centre wing box attached.

That could suggest it was no longer attached to the fuselage (and falling considerably more slowly, hence remaining relatively intact) by the time it hit the water.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 10:41
  #292 (permalink)  
 
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That could suggest it was no longer attached to the fuselage (and falling considerably more slowly, hence remaining relatively intact) by the time it hit the water.
That level of extrapolation is brilliant, you really should work for the NTSB, ATSB, AAI...

Let's see if it is part of an aeroplane first.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 11:46
  #293 (permalink)  
 
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Can somebody familiar with the Speed Trim System please comment on whether it would have been engaging and disengaging if the aircraft accelerated and decelerated through 300 KIAS. Thanks.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 11:56
  #294 (permalink)  
 
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ADS B;
Just which transponder was active is unknown, and what air data sources it was using also unknown. Just in case 'unreliable airspeed" had occurred, (usually this fault may well have included altitude)
Let's not read too much (or anything at all) into the radar24 kind of source. (on some of the latest systems, and this plane sure was the latest, GPS data may have been providing , but that's unlikely in my view although I don't know the ground station resources)

Flight Controls;
The 737 does not have any system capable of denying or overriding pilots control of the basic elevator/aileron/rudder and even FADEC, on a Boeing,does not override within the range needed to essentially have full thrust control. So.....

Flight conditions; (IMC/VMC).....instrument/visual control
If this plane was in VMC, there is no reason (except structural failure) why the crew could not continue in a 'rough-and-ready' way and return more or less safely. Pretty well all pilots have done the 'no instruments circuit' in the simulator. It's rough and ready but doable. In IMC there is a different dynamic, requiring the pilots to ignore their motion sensations and obey the instruments! This assumes
they are able to evaluate which ones are accurate, but the plane is certificated with reliable independent standby essential instruments to assist this evaluation .
Should controlled flight be lost though,the moment the plane comes out into VMC again the crew can instantly regain orientation and proceed in the 'no instruments' emergency mode.
I have no idea, like all of us, what caused this terrible accident. But let's not read too much into what ADSB monitoring sites report.

Last edited by T28B; 31st Oct 2018 at 19:20. Reason: awful formatting corrected
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 12:29
  #295 (permalink)  
 
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Bomb could have caused Lion Air crash - aviation expert

"We have an airplane that started a normal descent [sic] and then just nosed over"
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 13:20
  #296 (permalink)  
 
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Spoiler Control Valve QA Question

Wasn’t there a long running discussion on Techlog regarding a whistleblower reporting manufacturing QA violations on 737 Spoiler Control valves?
What would be the impact of a stuck or cycling spoiler on control?
I’m thinking that stuck up would be manageable, but random cycling would be interesting.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 13:28
  #297 (permalink)  
 
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What is ridiculous is that in 2018 a covered static vent is able to create such a situation and basically crash a plane.
What is most ridulous is that in 1988 most pilots would have easily handled such situation...

Modern aircraft rely much more on automation of highly integrated systems and profit from the significaltly higher reliability of the modern systems (electronics vs. electromechanical).
At the same time pilot training has changed from basic flying perfection to efficient procedures and system management, well trained to handle any situation the engineers thought of by the best procedure.
If all goes well, safety figures go up a lot. There is no question that aviation is mucher safer today than it has been 30 years ago.
If for any reason something goes wrong, no matter how low the probability, you lose a lot. And not every pilot is able to handle what is left, especially if something he was not trained for goes wrong,

If this plane was in VMC, there is no reason (except structural failure) why the crew could not continue in a 'rough-and-ready' way and return more or less safely.
Well, actually there are quite some more scenarios than structural failure, smoke in the cockpit or third party action, to name some. But none of them (including the structural failure) look likely today.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 13:59
  #298 (permalink)  
 
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Boeing which is participating in the probe, has privately expressed an interest in whether the pilots received unreliable speed data and about the maintenance history of the plane, according to people familiar with the conversations.

A Boeing spokesman declined to comment, referring to the company’s previous statement that it was providing technical assistance in the probe and directing questions to Indonesian authorities.
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 14:11
  #299 (permalink)  
 
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Will they haul the thing roughly out of the sea like they did the last one?
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Old 31st Oct 2018, 14:19
  #300 (permalink)  
 
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If anyone actually cares about the quality of various ADS-B sources then this is worth a read, in German unofunrtately but google translate does an OK job: https://www5.in.tum.de/pub/Zintl2017_BA.pdf
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