Boeing reports that Asia will need 240,000 pilots in next 20 years
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Boeing reports that Asia will need 240,000 pilots in next 20 years
So, could we extend the "ARBITRARY" retirement age (see other threads) to 90 ? I could do with a five year stint at Jakarta.............best Hard Rock Cafe in the world !............!
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If they can start to shift the management and safety culture away from its current dreadful state they might have more interest.
As is stands the horror stories come thick and fast, I guess you have to be mighty brave and/or desperate to pack it in and move to China.
As is stands the horror stories come thick and fast, I guess you have to be mighty brave and/or desperate to pack it in and move to China.
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There's already a LOT of money to be made by flying in China! The problem is that you have to live in China for most of the jobs, and put up with the Chinese bureaucracy for all of them.
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Before we get to fully pilotless we will see the advent of the "cockpit minder" on about half the pay of a current 1st Officer.
No I am not dreaming that is exactly what happened with the first generation of robots and NC machines back in the 1960's. Machine minders looked after the robots and if anything went wrong they knew where the big red "STOP" button was and pushed it. Not much skill required in that and my guess is that flying will go the same way.
I learned to fly on gliders (CCF) and got my PPL on Tiger Moths where the two most useful instruments in the aircraft were your backside and your eyes. Later progressing to more complex aircraft where it could take quite awhile to find your way around all the switches and dials, never mind all the mind blowing calculations you had to do in your head regarding route, weather, C of G, etc. Then along came round one of automation, GPS and the little disk you stuck in the dashboard which took most of the fun out of flying.
I doubt I will get to see it but my guess is we will see the advent of something like the cockpit minder in the not too distant future. God help us!
No I am not dreaming that is exactly what happened with the first generation of robots and NC machines back in the 1960's. Machine minders looked after the robots and if anything went wrong they knew where the big red "STOP" button was and pushed it. Not much skill required in that and my guess is that flying will go the same way.
I learned to fly on gliders (CCF) and got my PPL on Tiger Moths where the two most useful instruments in the aircraft were your backside and your eyes. Later progressing to more complex aircraft where it could take quite awhile to find your way around all the switches and dials, never mind all the mind blowing calculations you had to do in your head regarding route, weather, C of G, etc. Then along came round one of automation, GPS and the little disk you stuck in the dashboard which took most of the fun out of flying.
I doubt I will get to see it but my guess is we will see the advent of something like the cockpit minder in the not too distant future. God help us!
On the one hand Boeing are saying 240,000 pilots in the next 20 years and on the other they are saying that they are developing autonomous aircraft within a similar timescale. They are hyping up the pilot numbers to generate business for their training centres while at the same time hyping up the time frame for no pilot aircraft which would make their training centres redundant! Maybe the autonomous aircraft hype is for the benefit of airline CEO's who can see a big performance bonus for reducing staffing KPIs. The reality of both predictions will be borne out by the next generation of narrow body aircraft designs. If Boeing commit to autonomous aircraft production and the airlines commit to firm orders then we will know which area of the Boeing business has won the argument. Until then the current pilot shortage and the exit of experienced pilots over the next 10 years from the industry is still an airline CEO's reality.
Cargo ships ply the oceans and when leaving and arriving in port they are taken over by local marine pilots who guide the ship in as they have local knowledge.
This means of transport is predictable and moves in two dimensions. It would be ripe for automation but that is not happening.
Trains run on FIXED tracks and in some places are driverless but this is not widespread. I think that is because the passengers want someone up the front who has a vested interest in getting there safely.
So until both of these forms of transport are largely autonomous then pilotless aircraft are just a wet dream of people like MOL. Even the so called US drone aircraft have pilots in a room in the US. They are remotely controlled.
Boeing need to glass up? What does that mean?
This means of transport is predictable and moves in two dimensions. It would be ripe for automation but that is not happening.
Trains run on FIXED tracks and in some places are driverless but this is not widespread. I think that is because the passengers want someone up the front who has a vested interest in getting there safely.
So until both of these forms of transport are largely autonomous then pilotless aircraft are just a wet dream of people like MOL. Even the so called US drone aircraft have pilots in a room in the US. They are remotely controlled.
Boeing need to glass up? What does that mean?
Ultimately it will come down to cost and afraid that is what is the driver of it.
A 100 fleet SH carrier will need circa 12 qualified pilots per aircraft on average, and assumming cost is $200k a year each that includes Salary, Taxes, training costs etc etc then that is £200-250 million dollar cost per year.
Assumming Boeing / Airbus can roll this out and I believe they can and will then their is a real benefit to airline owners.
The arguement will be passenger worries.............. well post 9/11 nobody in Europe wanted to fly on an aircraft, Ryanair introduce 1p fares and people overcome their worries very quickly for a cheap fare.
I would expect 2-3 years iof transition where Pilots are present in the cockpit but from first introduction I would expect 10 years before we have automated fleets in many countries.
Circa 2040 is probably not unrealistic.
A 100 fleet SH carrier will need circa 12 qualified pilots per aircraft on average, and assumming cost is $200k a year each that includes Salary, Taxes, training costs etc etc then that is £200-250 million dollar cost per year.
Assumming Boeing / Airbus can roll this out and I believe they can and will then their is a real benefit to airline owners.
The arguement will be passenger worries.............. well post 9/11 nobody in Europe wanted to fly on an aircraft, Ryanair introduce 1p fares and people overcome their worries very quickly for a cheap fare.
I would expect 2-3 years iof transition where Pilots are present in the cockpit but from first introduction I would expect 10 years before we have automated fleets in many countries.
Circa 2040 is probably not unrealistic.
I would expect 2-3 years iof transition where Pilots are present in the cockpit but from first introduction I would expect 10 years before we have automated fleets in many countries.
Circa 2040 is probably not unrealistic.
Circa 2040 is probably not unrealistic.
Last edited by wiggy; 2nd Sep 2018 at 13:48.
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Don't forget guys that the automation will not be just in the aircraft but also on the ground as well. This will require common international standards for infrastructure and I do not see that happening over night.
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It is a selling argument for Boeing. If you produce toy airplanes. And you want to sell those all over the world.
you have to make sure that there are enough batteries to go with your toyplane. Otherwise the toyplane does not work.
So, Boeing is makeing sure that the supply of pilots will not dry out by promising big pilot numbers.
As long as there are pilots sleeping in carparks and paying for their training there is no pilot shortage. Boeing likes
to keep the market as it is. Cheap pilots/Batteries will sell their toy airplanes better than expensive Batteries/Pilots.
Same is valid for Airbus.
MPL was invented by Boeing. With their training provider Alteon. If you want to sell Airplanes, you need pilots.
cheap and a lot.
Falck
you have to make sure that there are enough batteries to go with your toyplane. Otherwise the toyplane does not work.
So, Boeing is makeing sure that the supply of pilots will not dry out by promising big pilot numbers.
As long as there are pilots sleeping in carparks and paying for their training there is no pilot shortage. Boeing likes
to keep the market as it is. Cheap pilots/Batteries will sell their toy airplanes better than expensive Batteries/Pilots.
Same is valid for Airbus.
MPL was invented by Boeing. With their training provider Alteon. If you want to sell Airplanes, you need pilots.
cheap and a lot.
Falck
Last edited by Falck; 31st Aug 2018 at 16:55.
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? So you are expecting to see the first autonomous but manned flights in passenger operation in 10 to 12 years from now, with automated fleets in many countries by 2040?
Dreamland.
The entire infrastructure needs to be in place, worldwide, before full automation becomes reality, and it's not going to happen that fast.
Automation is fine when everything goes to plan. It's all fine and good saying that when a robotic production line goes t*ts up you can push a red button and it all stops, but it's not quite that simple if you're at 20,000 ft with one engine out and aiming for the nearest long enough runway with serious crosswinds.
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Seems bbc got it from:
https://www.boeing.com/commercial/ma...pilot-outlook/
But the numbers don`t match. For Asia-Pacific it is 261,000 and for World Demand 790000.
Maybe they are working on a mass production assembly line to produce pilots. More likely is this forecast will be the excuse for pilotless aircraft. Namely the numbers required not achievable so the only way ahead is full automation with ground control for back up.
https://www.boeing.com/commercial/ma...pilot-outlook/
But the numbers don`t match. For Asia-Pacific it is 261,000 and for World Demand 790000.
Maybe they are working on a mass production assembly line to produce pilots. More likely is this forecast will be the excuse for pilotless aircraft. Namely the numbers required not achievable so the only way ahead is full automation with ground control for back up.