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4th Aug 2018 Junkers JU52 crashed in Switzerland

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4th Aug 2018 Junkers JU52 crashed in Switzerland

Old 8th Aug 2018, 12:30
  #161 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Apr 2007
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Originally Posted by PaxBritannica View Post
This what you meant?
Can't get the resolution any better than that.
I got the highest resolution possible, enhanced the shadows and compared the images. My result: No Ju visible in the 16:50 photo and wreck visible in the 17:00 photo. Which more or less means that we unfortunately cannot get anymore information form the webcam images.

Maybe the operator has access to more archive images. Just to be sure, I notified them...
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 13:12
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks, DRDR.

A question. The flight is not there at 16.50, but presumably must be fairly close, within ten miles or so, if it's down by 17.00. I've strained my eyes on the panoramic view for 16.50, but I can't pick it out anywhere. Which way would it likely approach?
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 14:10
  #163 (permalink)  
 
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Now we have to understand why they apparently completely lost control. I remain perplexed.
Maybe English is not your first language - I don't know- by I find your use of the word "perplexed" extremely perplexing.

I would have thought anyone with even a rudimentary knowledge of aviation could easily come up with several obvious scenarios as to how the aircraft came to the fate it did - given the circumstances we already know. Some choose to speculate, on here and elsewhere, some choose not to. I choose not to, but I would observe that some of the comments on here regarding age/experience etc, show a degree of a lack of awareness of how dynamic and variable human factors are.

Maybe that contributes to your puzzlement, maybe it does not. Either way - no offence meant, and my condolences to everybody affected by this horrible tragedy.
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 14:31
  #164 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by The Old Fat One View Post
could easily come up with several obvious scenarios as to how the aircraft came to the fate it did - given the circumstances we already know.
Since the Ju52 is a slow bird, it takes more than a simple stall to wind down in an arrow like descending crash. Normally you and especial the two experienced pilots would have recovered the bird within 500 to 1000 feet even from a power-on or power-off stall. And it did not crash in a flat spin. There is reason to believe that they had those altitude margin. So there is more to the story which hopefully will come to light in due time.

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Old 8th Aug 2018, 14:52
  #165 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by EDLB View Post


Since the Ju52 is a slow bird, it takes more than a simple stall to wind down in an arrow like descending crash. Normally you and especial the two experienced pilots would have recovered the bird within 500 to 1000 feet even from a power-on or power-off stall. And it did not crash in a flat spin. There is reason to believe that they had those altitude margin. So there is more to the story which hopefully will come to light in due time.
Thanks.
This indeed, more eloquently than I would have been able, summarize while I'm perplexed.
I don't see any obvious scenario where they would end up in an almost vertical dive from apparent controlled flight, with no structural damage, relatively tame weather and a very experienced crew. Sure there are some less likely situations that could think of but this remains somewhat baffling. Time will hopefully tell.
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 15:01
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by PaxBritannica View Post
Thanks, DRDR.

A question. The flight is not there at 16.50, but presumably must be fairly close, within ten miles or so, if it's down by 17.00. I've strained my eyes on the panoramic view for 16.50, but I can't pick it out anywhere. Which way would it likely approach?
I have no idea. Like you I cannot find the aircraft anywhere in the 360° (horizontal!) image taken at 16:50. So it must have been out of the rather wide view of the 22 megapixel panoramic camera system for up to 5 minutes or it must have been just above it.

By the way: The operator of the camera came back to me: They have already been approached by the authorities, but unfortunately they do not have any further images.
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 15:23
  #167 (permalink)  
 
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The aircraft was seen apparently flying normally yet a few minutes later impacted the ground vertically and partially inverted with wings and control surfaces apparently intact.

The aircraft was flying at modest airspeed speed, compared to more modern aircraft, in a mountainous area which was subject to winds measuring a significant percentage of the airspeed.

A sharp stall combined with an abrupt forward shift in the center of gravity of the aircraft accounts for the observed results. The exact details will be established by investigators, but this was an aircraft that was nearly 80 years old. It may have been in perfect condition but it was built to standards that were still being explored with single wings a novelty as an alternative to biplane wings!

A huge loss to aviation history and a great tragedy for all involved.
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 15:50
  #168 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by DRDR View Post
I have no idea. Like you I cannot find the aircraft anywhere in the 360° (horizontal!) image taken at 16:50. So it must have been out of the rather wide view of the 22 megapixel panoramic camera system for up to 5 minutes or it must have been just above it.

By the way: The operator of the camera came back to me: They have already been approached by the authorities, but unfortunately they do not have any further images.
DRDR,



There is a possible aircraft approaching in the Mutta Rodunda 1650hrs panorama.

As a newcomer, I don’t think my previous attempt to upload annotated image clips succeeded, so here is a verbose verbal target indication:

Roughly SW of the camera (if the direction icon at the top right of the screen is to be believed), is a wooden post, range approx. 10m. Beyond this is a green ridge-line range approx. 4km. Go slightly left from the post along the top of the ridge-line, and there is a lone cable-car pylon. Go further left again (about the same angle), and there is a white cable-car station building. Go back half-way between the station building and the pylon, and look higher up on the image… just below the most distant (much darker) ridge-line. There appears to be an aeroplane approaching at around the same elevation as the camera (± a few 1000ft). It’s too distant to make out much (even using 500% image magnification), other than it appears to be in level flight.

Would you be able to upload a clip from this image for me, please?
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 16:53
  #169 (permalink)  
 
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I think I'm right in saying that the Ju-52 passenger compartment and cockpit are not separated by any door or structure, yes?
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 16:58
  #170 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FollowTheSupper View Post
DRDR,
Would you be able to upload a clip from this image for me, please?
Sorry, I don't want to post photographs without permission from the copyright holders. You can download the complete panorama by clicking the downwards arrow at the control panel at the bottom of the screen. You can then find two flying objects, which are far away:

flying object #1:
x = 9138 y = 926

flying object #2:
x = 10049 y = 936

The left most object might fit to the estimated flightpath.
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 17:04
  #171 (permalink)  
 
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The cockpit is a separate compartment, but there is no door between pax and crew. Pax are invited one after the other to the cockpit (standing behind pilots) and get things explained.
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 17:20
  #172 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by clearedtocross View Post
The cockpit is a separate compartment, but there is no door between pax and crew. Pax are invited one after the other to the cockpit (standing behind pilots) and get things explained.
Thanks, that was what I thought.
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 17:23
  #173 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
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Originally Posted by PaxBritannica View Post
Thanks, DRDR.

A question. The flight is not there at 16.50, but presumably must be fairly close, within ten miles or so, if it's down by 17.00. I've strained my eyes on the panoramic view for 16.50, but I can't pick it out anywhere. Which way would it likely approach?
So the JU has go from Locarno to Dübendorf via Lodrino (LSML) than direct to Biasca - Olivone - GreinaPass - Sumvitg - Ilanz - Piz Segnas

From my calculations the impact happened at 16.57 LT (14.57 UTC), also comparing the webcame images from 16.50 and 17.00. I also look for the JU in the panoramic images but I think it was more or less abeam Illanz at 16.50 so too far away.
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 17:33
  #174 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Feathers McGraw View Post
I think I'm right in saying that the Ju-52 passenger compartment and cockpit are not separated by any door or structure, yes?
There's a photo of the interior of a Ju-52 in the Blick article--it's no. 20 of the 32 photos in the slideshow at the bottom of the story. If that's the accident aircraft or one just like it, there's open access but through a cutout, and a normal-sized adult (certainly men) would have to hunker down to get through.
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 19:44
  #175 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FollowTheSupper View Post
DRDR,



There is a possible aircraft approaching in the Mutta Rodunda 1650hrs panorama.

As a newcomer, I don’t think my previous attempt to upload annotated image clips succeeded, so here is a verbose verbal target indication:

Roughly SW of the camera (if the direction icon at the top right of the screen is to be believed), is a wooden post, range approx. 10m. Beyond this is a green ridge-line range approx. 4km. Go slightly left from the post along the top of the ridge-line, and there is a lone cable-car pylon. Go further left again (about the same angle), and there is a white cable-car station building. Go back half-way between the station building and the pylon, and look higher up on the image… just below the most distant (much darker) ridge-line. There appears to be an aeroplane approaching at around the same elevation as the camera (± a few 1000ft). It’s too distant to make out much (even using 500% image magnification), other than it appears to be in level flight.

Would you be able to upload a clip from this image for me, please?
Excellent directions, FTS. I followed them to here:



Looks like the likely path if coming from the direction of Ilanz over the ridge with the cable car line.

Still taken from Flims panorama https://laax.roundshot.com/mutta-rodunda/
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 20:19
  #176 (permalink)  
 
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They probably are even over Sumvitg over there. @FollowTheSupper, incredible that you found it on that panorama pictures. Well Done!!
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 20:21
  #177 (permalink)  
 
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If we accept the witness reports that the aircraft made a 180 turn before crashing, the all too important question raised is why did it make the turn. Was it for sightseeing or was it because it could no longer continue safely on its course to its destination. What we currently lack is information on any comms with the aircraft.
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Old 8th Aug 2018, 21:56
  #178 (permalink)  
 
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Blick published a photo taken by a passenger on the day before the crash. Shows the left wing and engine. Photo from inside plane
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Old 9th Aug 2018, 00:40
  #179 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by spoon84 View Post
They probably are even over Sumvitg over there. @FollowTheSupper, incredible that you found it on that panorama pictures. Well Done!!

Thanks for the encouraging comments spoon84 and PB… I will put it down to being a spotter in a previous existence! My apologies that as a newcomer I can’t post a few simple maps and images here, which might save a thousand words.


Personally, I believe that the approaching aircraft in the panoramic image, is actually well to the East of Sumvitg, and so therefore if it is the JU52, and if it is heading towards the camera, it may have taken a more scenic, easterly-lying route than you have suggested.

My reasoning is this:

1. The ski-lift top-station at Mutta Rodunda appears in the panoramic image to be about 700m to the WNW of the camera, so the camera is probably near to the end of the rough track (which can be seen leading down from the station), perhaps at around grid 2736470mE, 1192300mN (approx. elevation 2360m). [Map coordinates can be found at the bottom of the screen on the excellent online mapping website, which was referred to in the link at post #157.]



2. The white cable-car mid-station building (referred to in post #168), which sits on top of the ridge (at a range of approx. 4km), appears to be at Crap Sogn Gion, at grid 2735550mE 1188650mN (approx. elevation 2210m).



3. There is an alp (or farmstead) vertically below the mid-station building in the image, on the near side of the valley (at a range of about 1500m). This has a building with a long, silver roof heading almost in line away from the camera, beside some slightly-red, levelled ground (or paddock?), and with a second building closer to the camera and slightly to the left, on the near side of the track. I believe that this is at Mughels, at grid 2736140mE, 1190960mN (approx. elevation 2000m). [The orientation of these buildings is clearly displayed on the map, if you zoom in fully.]

The camera and these other two positions should therefore be in a line, which passes through Piz Aul (range about 28km) on the map. The latter summit would then be the one seen in the image, immediately above the Crap Sogn Gion cable-car station. (Its prominence is supported by the fact that it is also the closest over-3000m summit to the camera, in that general direction.) The approaching aircraft is slightly to our right (i.e. to the west) of the sightline towards Piz Aul, which I would suggest puts it near to (or over) the relatively low (at 2063m) summit of Piz Mundaun (2731575mE, 1178270mN)... the north facing cliffs of which I believe can be seen below the approaching aircraft, and behind the cable-car cable. (The distance to the aircraft is very difficult to estimate, even roughly.)

Sumvitg on the other hand, is around 15km to the west of Piz Mundaun, and although the town itself is obscured in low ground, the bearing to it from the camera would pass through the cable-car top-station at Crap Masegn, at grid 2732830mE 1189390mN (approx. elevation 2470m). The latter is easily visible in the image, well to the right of the wooden post (also referred to in #168), where the wide gap in the distant skyline marks the course of the Upper Rhein valley.




Although I live roughly 100km SW from the crash site, I distinctly heard the drone of a JU52 passing on the previous day. The sound is fairly rare, but not unknown around here. Perhaps it was the same aircraft taking a different route on the outbound leg… or maybe it was a separate trip by a sister aircraft. Unusually, I was so busy that I did not interrupt my work, in order to pop outside and savour its fly-past.

I should therefore strongly echo G0ULI’s recent comments about loss and tragedy, which somehow didn’t appear as intended at the end of my earlier post.
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Old 9th Aug 2018, 01:23
  #180 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2006
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First of all the published picture was not taken on the accident flight.

Looking at the picture I don't see any problems. They are not even close to the mountains on the side. That is very relaxed mountain flying.

Last edited by Pilot DAR; 9th Aug 2018 at 07:15. Reason: Editied removed quote
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