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A380 - the best is yet to come

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A380 - the best is yet to come

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Old 30th Jul 2018, 13:18
  #161 (permalink)  
 
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If the cargo carried makes more money than the extra 200 passengers carried by the 380, can I ask why airlines are increasing the passenger numbers on the 773 by going 10 across in econ rather than 9? CX and BA are changing to it, and EK has always had it. As the aircraft (777) is MTOW limited on longer flights this means the cargo it can carry starts to reduce at 11hrs of flight time and is zero at 14hrs .the 380 can carry full ZFW out to a bit over 16hrs (in the EK case that's 527 pax and 8t cargo). So with the extra pax and cargo load available the 4 holer wins on ULR flying using your metric . This would be supported when looking at the EK network where the 380 has taken the majority of ULR flying .

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Old 30th Jul 2018, 14:28
  #162 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by KenV
Hmmmm. Tens of thousands of pilots are quite "absolute in their belief" that a landing gear failing to extend would be caught before landing. That gear is MUCH more complex, and the consequences of a failed gear MUCH more severe than a folding wingtip.

Similarly, tens of thousands of pilots are quite "absolute in their belief" that an assymetric flap extension would be caught and prevented before aircraft upset. The flap system is MUCH more complex and the consequences of a failed flap extension much more severe than a folding wingtip.
Until the human element is removed, the potential to forget to put the gear down, the wings up or the flaps out exists. I'm not as positive as you that the crew will catch it. Let's hope Boeing's wing fold config monitor is flawless.

I suspect if crews forget anything, it'll be to fold them up after landing and end up whacking things in the gate area.
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 14:47
  #163 (permalink)  
 
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The reason there’s been a relative dearth in widebody orders in recent years is due cheap fuel it made more economic sense to extend the life of your 744/767/772/330 etc than to buy a 350/787/Neo etc, as the cost of financing the new aircraft outweighs the cost of the extra fuel burn. Cheap fuel was there for a number of reasons but a major one was that Iran can extract oil far more cheaply than Saudi, so were actively flooding the market to hurt the Saudi economy, and under Obama the US was encouraging this to put pressure on Putin.

With sanctions kicking in again on Iran in a matter of weeks, the price will climb again, so we may see new widebody orders as a result.

Now I see we have a current Boeing employee in KenV and a former in tdracer. Is the 778 signicatly heavier than the 77W to allow the extra range? And if so, wouldn’t that make the A35K more efficient up to something like 80% of the 778s range, which is a fairly niche market?

I mean combined number of 77L and A345 built was roughly 100 right?
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 15:07
  #164 (permalink)  
 
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It’s funny to listen to all these arguments. As several of us keep posting the market has spoken. The airframe is dead.
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 16:01
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Originally Posted by donpizmeov
If the cargo carried makes more money than the extra 200 passengers carried by the 380, can I ask why airlines are increasing the passenger numbers on the 773 by going 10 across in econ rather than 9?
It depends a lot on whether the airline can actually consistently sell the additional 200 seats. It's clear that they can sell a few more seats on the 777 by going 10 across, else they wouldn't do it. The other factor is range. It used to take a four engine aircraft to have a range over 7500nm. Now there are three twins (777-200LR, 787 and A350) that can do it routinely, and soon a fourth (777X). One of the A380's biggest selling points (range) is gone and all it has left is passenger capacity. The market for such a large passenger capacity is not only small, but currently limited to one airline. The market is gradually but surely squeezing out the A380. So like the Concorde, its a very impressive machine, but without a viable market.
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 16:11
  #166 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by West Coast
Until the human element is removed, the potential to forget to put the gear down, the wings up or the flaps out exists. I'm not as positive as you that the crew will catch it.
Indeed, and yet there are literally tens of thousands of aircraft operating with retractable landing gear and retractable leading and trailing edge flaps. Clearly the operators and regulators recognize that the advantages far outweigh the risks.

Let's hope Boeing's wing fold config monitor is flawless.
Flawless? Why flawless? The landing gear and flap protection systems are far from flawless and the consequences of a failed or misconfigured gear or flaps is far far worse than misconfigured folding wingtip.

I suspect if crews forget anything, it'll be to fold them up after landing and end up whacking things in the gate area.
The thing about the gate area is that there are lots and lots of additional eyes in the gate area than just the flight crew. In addition, the gate area has a 25 ft clearance margin. The wing fold only reduces the span of each side by 10 ft. So while entering the gate area with unfolded wingtips will certainly result in a clearance violation, it will not necessarily result in a wingtip impact.
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 17:03
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There were lots of additional crew members, ground personnel, etc looking at plenty of other F’ ups as well.

If it it can be screwed up, it eventually will, saying otherwise ignores the fallible human and technology built by fallable humans. There likely won’t be just one reason but a compilation of them that will place the aircraft in an undesired state.

I’ve read your opinions and generally am in agreement (especially the political realm) but can’t agree with you that humans can be relied upon to the extent you think.
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 17:34
  #168 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by West Coast
If it it can be screwed up, it eventually will, saying otherwise ignores the fallible human and technology built by fallable humans.
There is zero doubt that at some point there will be a foul up regarding the folding wingtips. I never argued otherwise. I have argued that the benefits are worth the risk, just as the benefits of retracting landing gear, retracting leading and trailing edge flaps, engine thrust reversers, speed brakes, landing spoilers, all moving tailplanes, hydraulically powered flight controls, and a bevy of other features that add complexity to the aircraft are worth the risk. Heavens, Concorde had a drooping nose which if it failed would have made the aircraft a real handful at best (impossible at worst) to safely land. Aviation has a long long history of mitigating and accepting the risks brought by increased complexity. The 777X's folding wingtips are no exception in that regard.
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 20:31
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Originally Posted by Una Due Tfc
Now I see we have a current Boeing employee in KenV and a former in tdracer. Is the 778 signicatly heavier than the 77W to allow the extra range? And if so, wouldn’t that make the A35K more efficient up to something like 80% of the 778s range, which is a fairly niche market?
The 777X will actually be a bit lighter (MTOW) and carry less fuel than the corresponding 777 models (the GE9X engine will be rated for ~10,000 lbs less thrust than the GE90-115B). The range is from the reduced fuel burn due to the new wing and engines.
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 22:23
  #170 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by tdracer
The 777X will actually be a bit lighter (MTOW) and carry less fuel than the corresponding 777 models (the GE9X engine will be rated for ~10,000 lbs less thrust than the GE90-115B). The range is from the reduced fuel burn due to the new wing and engines.
Thanks TD. Hope retirement is treating you well.
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Old 30th Jul 2018, 23:33
  #171 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by Sailvi767
It’s funny to listen to all these arguments. As several of us keep posting the market has spoken. The airframe is dead.
I must admit I was thinking the same. There doesn't seem to be anything on the horizon that is going to change the perception of the market towards the A380 in the foreseable. Even Airbus would kill it off if it were not for EK.
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Old 31st Jul 2018, 03:59
  #172 (permalink)  
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Would someone care to enlighten me as to how the levels of comfort, noise and smoothness of the A350 stack up against the Boeing 777 competition?

IG
 
Old 31st Jul 2018, 04:08
  #173 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ImageGear
Would someone care to enlighten me as to how the levels of comfort, noise and smoothness of the A350 stack up against the Boeing 777 competition?

IG
A350 is a lot quieter. Comfort and smoothness are hard to quantify, flown CX and SQ regularly on both in J,W & Y. All been comfortable.
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Old 31st Jul 2018, 04:57
  #174 (permalink)  
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On the A380, the seat pitch, cabin height and arms reach storage lockers, make for very little stuff around one's feet. Also the sheer size and weight of the A380 seems to facilitate absorption of a lot of turbulence through the wings. In this case, size does seem to matter.

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Old 31st Jul 2018, 09:39
  #175 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ImageGear
Would someone care to enlighten me as to how the levels of comfort, noise and smoothness of the A350 stack up against the Boeing 777 competition?

IG
The 777 is noisy. My guess is the 777X will be even worse as they make it lighter. The A380 is one of the best aircraft when it comes to noise in the cabin. I have not paxed on the 350.
Not impressed with the noise levels in the B787 either.
Boeings fly slightly faster than Airbus, maybe that is a factor when it comes to noise?
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Old 31st Jul 2018, 12:12
  #176 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ImageGear
On the A380, the seat pitch, cabin height and arms reach storage lockers, make for very little stuff around one's feet. Also the sheer size and weight of the A380 seems to facilitate absorption of a lot of turbulence through the wings. In this case, size does seem to matter.

IG.
The cabin depends on the airline. The C Class of EK and QR is fantastic because of the bar, which allows you to stretch your legs and you generally end up meeting nice people over a cocktail or a glass of very decent bubbly. I and plenty others specifically choose their 380s whenever possible. C on SQ is ok too. On LH it's very underwhelming.
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Old 31st Jul 2018, 12:34
  #177 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by ManaAdaSystem

Boeings fly slightly faster than Airbus, maybe that is a factor when it comes to noise?
Not sure that is a universal truth any more, certainly not for the bigbus vs the T7. Whilst each sector is different and different companies have different cruise speed /cost index policies in general from what I’ve seen on ultra longhaul routes a 380 will almost certainly be flying a higher Mach number than a 772 and probably be flying a higher Mach number than a 77W....
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Old 31st Jul 2018, 17:14
  #178 (permalink)  
 
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A little oh BTW: Boeing is developing a 777-300ER freighter conversion. This freighter is aimed at the volumetric freighter market vs the density freighter marker targeted by the 777F. How does this relate to A380? The big reason for developing the freighter conversion is so that current 777-300ER operators have a secondary market they can sell their used -300ERs to. That's one of the big problems faced by operators of the A380: no freighter version and thus no secondary market.
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Old 31st Jul 2018, 17:37
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Has anyone done a study on an A380 Combi? Pax on the upper deck and cargo on the 2 lower decks? KLM still uses combi’s on certain routes if I am correct.
Might also be interesting as a “troopcarrier” for the armed forces?
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Old 31st Jul 2018, 17:49
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Originally Posted by Tommy Gavin
Has anyone done a study on an A380 Combi? Pax on the upper deck and cargo on the 2 lower decks?
There have been changes in the regulations governing combi type aircraft after some cargo fire related accidents (e.g. SAA Helderberg). Never say never, but it would be very, very difficult to certify a new combi aircraft to those regulations (I believe all the combi's currently in operation were certified to the previous regulations).
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