A380 - the best is yet to come
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
Boeing are hardly going to be bullish about that market, given that they have more or less abandoned the B748 in its passenger role.
Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
Boeing are hardly going to be bullish about that market, given that they have more or less abandoned the B748 in its passenger role.
Airbus thought they could sell a bunch of A380s to replace old 747s - but that didn't happen. Most operators are replacing their old 747s with big twins, not new A380s or 747s.
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It never stop to amaze me that we are working in an industry where the client ( the paying pax ) has in fact nothing to say but accept what others decide is best for them. and we are supposed to live in a market oriented global business!
Interesting also to see that on routes where the same airline offers different types ( e.g SQ or LH ) the fares on the A380 are generally significantly higher that on the 747 or the 777 as people are apparently prepared to pay a premium for the 380 .
Interesting also to see that on routes where the same airline offers different types ( e.g SQ or LH ) the fares on the A380 are generally significantly higher that on the 747 or the 777 as people are apparently prepared to pay a premium for the 380 .
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I recall reading various articles in which Sir Tim Clark was commenting on the introduction of the A380 into Manchester.
He was clear that the A380 created it's own market share wherever it was introduced, and I think their massive increase at MAN has proved that point. Three per day and each one either full or very nearly. It's the best aircraft I have flown on but I have my next flight booked on the Qatar A350, which also seems to be rated very highly, so it will be interesting to compare the two. The B787's are okay, better than a B767, but you don't leave with the wow factor like you do on the big airbus.
He was clear that the A380 created it's own market share wherever it was introduced, and I think their massive increase at MAN has proved that point. Three per day and each one either full or very nearly. It's the best aircraft I have flown on but I have my next flight booked on the Qatar A350, which also seems to be rated very highly, so it will be interesting to compare the two. The B787's are okay, better than a B767, but you don't leave with the wow factor like you do on the big airbus.
Last edited by Trav a la; 22nd Jul 2018 at 22:11.
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Originally Posted by ATC Watcher
It never stop to amaze me that we are working in an industry where the client ( the paying pax ) has in fact nothing to say but accept what others decide is best for them. and we are supposed to live in a market oriented global business!
It's also not only this industry. Tried to buy a mobile phone with a removable battery recently? I actually want to replace my 4yr old smart phone, in a few months, it's getting a bit slow and starting to struggle with what passes for mobile web sites today and the OS version is now out of support. I have a list of about 6 - 8 features that my four year old phone already has that I want, plus faster processor and more memory, nothing available, even with money-no-issue budget. Take list to phone shop "sorry no one makes a phone like that now", what, "does no one want A B C X Y Z?", "oh yes, but most people don't care".
And that in the end is what will probably do for the A380 - "most people don't care". Sad thing is that it will leave as it arrived, an ugly duckling, which the 900 or 1000 stretches might well have fixed.
I have been flying and passengering around in aeroplanes for a good 55 + years now and I can say categorically that the A380 is the most comfortable aeroplane I have ever been in by a long shot.
So quiet and smooth it is an absolute delight to be a passenger in.
I just hope it keeps being built so that many others in years to come can get as much pleasure from it as I have.
Like so many things it might not look really beautiful but it's sure nice once you get inside!!!
Thanks Airbus for such a lovely aeroplane to fly in.
So quiet and smooth it is an absolute delight to be a passenger in.
I just hope it keeps being built so that many others in years to come can get as much pleasure from it as I have.
Like so many things it might not look really beautiful but it's sure nice once you get inside!!!
Thanks Airbus for such a lovely aeroplane to fly in.
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From a passengers point of view, the A380 is simply the most comfortable plane to fly.
However, didn't Airbus build there own nail in the coffin of the A380 by introducing the A350-1000?
However, didn't Airbus build there own nail in the coffin of the A380 by introducing the A350-1000?
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...most people don't care
)IG
It never stop to amaze me that we are working in an industry where the client ( the paying pax ) has in fact nothing to say but accept what others decide is best for them. and we are supposed to live in a market oriented global business!
Everyone complains about the cramped seats in the 10 across 777 and 9 across 787. If most paying passengers boycotted those operators and only fly on those with 9 across 777s and 8 across 787s, the cattle car seating would quickly go away. But they don't - they may bitch and complain, but they still buy the cheapest ticket.
So the market based solution is cramped, uncomfortable seating and crappy service with dirt cheap prices because that is exactly what the majority of travelers have voted for with their wallets. Most of the people on this form hate it - with good reason - but we are a small minority. Personally, I always check the aircraft type and check it out on seatguru when booking air travel - but my wife doesn't care, she just wants the lowest price so she can spend the money shopping after we get there.
Originally Posted by tdracer
DR, I think you need to consider the cause and effect at play - would Boeing abandon the passenger 747-8 if they saw a significant market there?
Originally Posted by tdracer
Airbus thought they could sell a bunch of A380s to replace old 747s - but that didn't happen. Most operators are replacing their old 747s with big twins, not new A380s or 747s.
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The open market has stated, repeatedly, that the average consumer is primarily cost driven.
The market has demonstrated that if given the choice, people are willing to pay a premium for a better product. If however the product offered is inconsistent and you never know what you really get for your money, then of course everybody opts for lowest cost.
Those airlines who explicitly offer the A380 as premium product have succeded to sell the more expensive tickets.
You would have a hard job flying on an Air France 747 to anywhere - they do not have any ! They retired the last one at least 2 years ago.
Anyway, they switched back from A380 to two planes within less than 2 hours, just like they did before there was an A380 available.
Most operators are replacing their old 747s with big twins, not new A380s
Many even replace their old 747 with 787, not with 77W, as they do not need the size.
The hub concept requires efficient and convenient airports, most major airports of major cities however are very old, and have grown without a real concept behind. If it takes longer to change terminals at a major airport than flying to smaller airport and take a train or car to your destination, many people will do just that. It is not just the airspace or the runways, it is the full aiport infrastructure which prevents the A380 from using its full potential. Only a handful of airports worldwide is truly "A380 ready".
If you operate from an airport with overloaded terminals, you do not make your A380 passengers happy. And if you operate from small efficient airports, you can not fill an A380.
Which probably is the reason why the premium economy has become a big market success, it is simply cheaper than economy class...
The market has demonstrated that if given the choice, people are willing to pay a premium for a better product. If however the product offered is inconsistent and you never know what you really get for your money, then of course everybody opts for lowest cost.
Those airlines who explicitly offer the A380 as premium product have succeded to sell the more expensive tickets.
The market has demonstrated that if given the choice, people are willing to pay a premium for a better product. If however the product offered is inconsistent and you never know what you really get for your money, then of course everybody opts for lowest cost.
Those airlines who explicitly offer the A380 as premium product have succeded to sell the more expensive tickets.
If the airlines could routinely make more money flying the A380 than big twins, they'd be buying more of them. I can count the number of airlines that have done that on one finger.
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If you operate from an airport with overloaded terminals, you do not make your A380 passengers happy. And if you operate from small efficient airports, you can not fill an A380.
Given that more runways are near impossible, the capacity needs to be on the ac, not more of them.
While the Lazy B keeps pumping out the 737 series, the miscues certainly have cost them dearly...757, 767, 748, and losing the C Series. The Embraer deal is a bit amusing, but C919 and ARJ21 ill have to be dealt with.
Like imagegear stated, the 787 rattles and squeeks with center overhead baggage acting like a yodlers uvula in even slight turbulence.
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
No, the question is: would Boeing have abandoned the pax B748 if they saw a market capable of supporting two competitors? Nobody seriously thinks there is, it was just Boeing who blinked first, as everyone expected.
Both parts of that statement are undoubtedly true (and you could equally say that Boeing thought they could sell a bunch of B748s to replace old 747s). But to imply, as Boeing's forecast does, that Airbus are only going to sell an average of 3 A380s per year over the next 20 years sounds awfully like sour grapes.
Both parts of that statement are undoubtedly true (and you could equally say that Boeing thought they could sell a bunch of B748s to replace old 747s). But to imply, as Boeing's forecast does, that Airbus are only going to sell an average of 3 A380s per year over the next 20 years sounds awfully like sour grapes.
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The point of buying and operating an airliner is to make money. Making money boils down to two points.
1. Most passengers are willing to grit their teeth during their flight in order to pay the least amount possible. To profit in that environment requires operating a twinjet.
2. Airlines also make money moving freight in the belly. To profit in that environment requires a single deck aircraft. Double deckers tend to fill their belly with passenger luggage.
Sadly, as superb as the airplane is, the A380 violates both points 1 and 2.
A lesser but still important point is resale value. Airlines need to be able to sell used aircraft to the secondary market at a reasonable price. That means freighter conversions and high density versions for charter operations. There is no freighter conversion and it is unlikely that a high density version of the A380 can be filled. Right now 10 year old A380s have more value as scrap than as airliners. This may change as later build A380s reach their 10 year point, but this is far from certain.
And even assuming charter operators could fill high density A380s, how many terminals could handle 800+ people disembarking from a single aircraft? And will 800+ people's luggage fit in the belly or would the airline have to restrict the amount of baggage a passenger could take with him/her?
So much like the Concorde which was an engineering marvel, the realities of the market means the A380 (like the Concorde before it) operates in a niche. There's not a lot of profit in niche markets and what profit there is seems to have been mostly captured by a single operator, Emirates. And note that Emirates operate from a huge terminal dedicated exclusively for the A380. Could any airline anywhere duplicate such a terminal? And yes, Emirates operates a whole bunch of A380s, but they ALSO operate even more B777 (indeed they are the largest operator of the B777-300ER) and have ordered hundreds more. So even in the rarified world Emirates operates in, they're buying more B777 than A380. So not even Emirates can make as big a profit flying A380 as they can flying B777, else they'd buy and fly more A380 and less B777.
1. Most passengers are willing to grit their teeth during their flight in order to pay the least amount possible. To profit in that environment requires operating a twinjet.
2. Airlines also make money moving freight in the belly. To profit in that environment requires a single deck aircraft. Double deckers tend to fill their belly with passenger luggage.
Sadly, as superb as the airplane is, the A380 violates both points 1 and 2.
A lesser but still important point is resale value. Airlines need to be able to sell used aircraft to the secondary market at a reasonable price. That means freighter conversions and high density versions for charter operations. There is no freighter conversion and it is unlikely that a high density version of the A380 can be filled. Right now 10 year old A380s have more value as scrap than as airliners. This may change as later build A380s reach their 10 year point, but this is far from certain.
And even assuming charter operators could fill high density A380s, how many terminals could handle 800+ people disembarking from a single aircraft? And will 800+ people's luggage fit in the belly or would the airline have to restrict the amount of baggage a passenger could take with him/her?
So much like the Concorde which was an engineering marvel, the realities of the market means the A380 (like the Concorde before it) operates in a niche. There's not a lot of profit in niche markets and what profit there is seems to have been mostly captured by a single operator, Emirates. And note that Emirates operate from a huge terminal dedicated exclusively for the A380. Could any airline anywhere duplicate such a terminal? And yes, Emirates operates a whole bunch of A380s, but they ALSO operate even more B777 (indeed they are the largest operator of the B777-300ER) and have ordered hundreds more. So even in the rarified world Emirates operates in, they're buying more B777 than A380. So not even Emirates can make as big a profit flying A380 as they can flying B777, else they'd buy and fly more A380 and less B777.
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Originally Posted by TURIN
.... I flew on four aircraft types within 24hrs on a trip to Oz last year. 320, 380, 777, Dash 8. the 777 was by far the worst. Bumpy ride, rattley and noisy.....
As some have pointed out here, at one time the airlines used wide bodies , DC-10 etc on domestic and holiday routes. They have all switched to narrow bodies. Load, frequency and turn around mean better economics and money rules.
What is interesting is Atlantic traffic is going the same way, see Norwegian and Primeria.
I haven't flown the A380 but everyone I know who has loves it. But then people loved the Concorde, even with the cramped seating.
The good thing is, smaller planes = more jobs for pilots !
What is interesting is Atlantic traffic is going the same way, see Norwegian and Primeria.
I haven't flown the A380 but everyone I know who has loves it. But then people loved the Concorde, even with the cramped seating.
The good thing is, smaller planes = more jobs for pilots !
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As I said in another post. The market has spoken on the A380. The last Emerites order for 20 airframes will most likely be replacement aircraft for some of their older A380’s. They placed their order to keep the production line open and preserve the resale and current book value of their A380’s airframes. If the production line closes the value of existing airframes plummets. It’s pretty low already.
