Airbus warns about no-deal Brexit

[Gertrude the Wombat]

Originally Posted by Bergerie1

In my view it would be a disaster for Britain's aviation industry.

However 17,000,000 people think it's a price worth paying for BLUE PASSPORTS, so that's that.

[DC10RealMan]

The tories are very keen on Victorian values and by the time they have finished their infighting the UK will be back in the 19th century and we will all be "down pit" (if they hadn't closed them as well)

[brakedwell]

Originally Posted by Gertrude the Wombat

However 17,000,000 people think it's a price worth paying for BLUE PASSPORTS, so that's that.

A lot of them have passed on by now and will never be proud owners of BLUE PASSPORTS.

[EDLB]

I assume that China is eager to get access to production methods of the latest wing technology so they will offer a good deal to set up production there. In eastern Europe there are several companies and locations with airplane building know how with still moderate wages. So there are options to move. Might take two years until series production.

[Heathrow Harry]

" and try to solve them or find alternatives that work for the UK. "

and your suggestions are??????

Mine is not to leave - and that works fine

[Heathrow Harry]

" The national Governments of France, Germany and Spain will not want Airbus compromised by EU intransigence "

Have you READ anything they've said for heavens sake? The UK constantly believes it can divide and rule Europe - and all the evidence since the early '50's shows how successful we've been ... NOT

Given the choice between slightly reduced Airbus profits and the European dream which do you think they'll choose? They're see things beyond a balance sheet.................................

[infrequentflyer789]

Originally Posted by ORAC

In 2005 Airbus said its target was to have 50% of its components produced outside the EU. The current figure is about 25%. Strangely paperwork and customs don’t appear to be an issue.

Every little helps.....

So if/when Brexit happens, it helps them meet their target, so moving production out of the UK must be contingency planning so they can still meet targets if we _don't_ leave

[BAengineer]

Originally Posted by TangoAlphad

You can't claim the only decent wing makers are in the UK.
It will come down to cold hard cash and if it will be cheaper elsewhere or even just probably cheaper elsewhere due to uncertainty over tarrifs etc they will go.

You would need t have massive tariffs to make it financially worthwhile to shut down the existing factory and create a brand new one in another country - even if the UK left under WTO rules with no FTA how many years would it take for Airbus to recoup that investment just by not paying tariffs?.

Also I don't know how it works in France but in the UK if you import a component and that is added to a new assembly and then re-exported there is no import tariff due on that original component.

[AVR4000]

It is pretty self-explanatory that a loss of access to the common market paired with import duties and regulation issues connected with such things as exiting EASA and so on and so forth will hamper the UK industry.

Airbus is very much an "EU corporation" and having wing production outside of the EU and then having to deal with the hassle that means will be an end of said production - eventually. It could take a different turn *if* negotiations would produce a result that avoid the worst issues.

People voted for Brexit and for isolation doesn't seem to concerned about the global nature of the economy and that a lack of access to the common market will hamper different industries - not to mention that UK production become pretty "inconvenient" when it turns out that those products are "third country" suddenly and subject to import duties and regulatory issues.

The best solution under bad circumstances are a "Deal Brexit" where UK simply remain as "part members" of the EU one way or another, including access to the common market and EASA rather than a "Hard Brexit" where they are out of everything.

[SMT Member]

Whilst privatised, Airbus is still very much a political animal. Back in 2007 when EADS was formed and the UK government decided to leave the consortium, there were already rumours about moving wing production 'in house'. But Airbus instead took complete ownership of the factory and has kept production running in the UK, as it didn't make financial or technological sense moving it to e.g. Germany or France. One key reason to this was UK membership of the EU. Conversely, France and Germany retain around 11% each and Spain holds around 4%.

There are very strong franco/german thoughts about Brexit, and they are far from friendly and understanding. They feel betrayed, and that the political class in the UK are a bunch of idiots, to put it bluntly. Right or wrong, that's the state of play.

In this environment, and there being no fundamental reason why Airbus should retain such a key element of production in a 3rd country, the possibility of moving wing fabrication to the continent has gone from 'unlikely' to 'plausible'. It is highly unlikely they'll do it out of spite, or if it has obvious negative consequences, but I could see wing production having migrated to another EU country within the next 5 years. And if Spain is able to increase its ownership share, it could be the recipient.

[Steve6443]

Originally Posted by Heathrow Harry

Why SHOULD they do anything??

We're the ones who brought this fandango on ................... why should they spend any time or money on it? Would we do the same if things were reversed???

Harry, please, they brought it on themselves. They should have negotiated in good faith with David Cameron. My proposal would have been: 1) no benefit for benefits tourists for at least 6 months 2) all benefits payments made to EU citizens in a foreign country can be recouped from their home country. 3) Convicted criminals can be deported and refused entry for a period equal to 5 times the duration of the prison sentence they received.

Had the EU made an offer like that, then Brexit would have never happened, instead they decided to tell the Brits 'take it or leave it' - so, are you still claiming the Brits brought this upon themselves? It takes two to Tango....

Now, going back to Airbus, as others have said, and I've said it in other threads, it staggers me that wings are still produced in UK when it would be more efficient and certainly more cost effective to produce them on the continent. Nobody can fault Airbus, they are a shareholder owned company and they are looking for the best for their shareholders. Unfortunately GB is no longer a shareholder, not even a minority shareholder. Even if Brexit didn't happen, I'm pretty sure there would, sooner or later, have been moves afoot to move the jobs abroad. Or put it another way: did Brexit cause the Transit van production to move abroad? This is just a heaven sent idea for Airbus to claim that 'it's not our fault we are doing this'.

[LTNman]

So the American engines are fine then?

Oh and do what the French do with the workers going on strike until a deal is done. Airbus will soon change its mind

[SkodaVRS1963]

Yeah, right......

Many moons ago Airbus (or whatever name they were trading under back then) threatened to close the plant at Filton if they didn't get the go-ahead for a commercial airport at the site.

Workers (and I have family members who are employed there) were shamelessly bullied by management ("support a commercial airport here or look somewhere else for a job").

The commercial airport never happened (thankfully, I wouldn't trust Airbus to run a car boot sale stall) but the plant is still open.

The management at Airbus have previous form in issuing veiled threats.

[SMT Member]

Originally Posted by Steve6443

Harry, please, they brought it on themselves. They should have negotiated in good faith with David Cameron. My proposal would have been: 1) no benefit for benefits tourists for at least 6 months 2) all benefits payments made to EU citizens in a foreign country can be recouped from their home country. 3) Convicted criminals can be deported and refused entry for a period equal to 5 times the duration of the prison sentence they received.

Had the EU made an offer like that, then Brexit would have never happened, instead they decided to tell the Brits 'take it or leave it' - so, are you still claiming the Brits brought this upon themselves? It takes two to Tango....

The EU went out of their way to please the UK, but it wasn't enough. There's a limit to how far you can push the boundaries of a union, and Cameron was pushing for things the EU couldn't give him. The negotiations were very much in good faith as far as the EU goes, which is far more than can be said for the Cameron government who put EU membership to the vote. That was certainly not part of the negotiations and, right or wrong, seriously pissed off a lot of the EU.

Originally Posted by Steve6443

The irony is that certain people still believe Britain had any power and influence in the EU. Britain didn't. It just had to shut up and pay ever more cash for dubious projects.

That is absolute bovine manure. The UK regularly formed a block of like-minded countries such as Denmark and the Netherlands, and thus had enough votes to sway the day on numerous occasions. Obviously the bloc didn't get their way all of the time; that's not how a coalition driven democracy works. But to say the UK just payed and never had say is factually incorrect.

[BAengineer]

Originally Posted by SMT Member

In this environment, and there being no fundamental reason why Airbus should retain such a key element of production in a 3rd country, the possibility of moving wing fabrication to the continent has gone from 'unlikely' to 'plausible'. It is highly unlikely they'll do it out of spite, or if it has obvious negative consequences, but I could see wing production having migrated to another EU country within the next 5 years. And if Spain is able to increase its ownership share, it could be the recipient.

Are they going to start making their own engines instead of importing them from the UK and US?. It is actual Airbus policy to move 40% of its supply chain out of Europe so even if the UK stayed in nothing would be guaranteed.

The UK needs to make itself attractive in a worldwide competitive environment - Brexit is irrelevant to that.

[Spartacan]

The reality is that the British Prime Minister is in a very strong position and the EU knows that. The PM has the backing of the British electorate who voted to leave the EU then voted for a Parliament dominated by MP's whose constituents voted to leave. The PM clearly has control of the House of Commons which has voted through the EU withdrawal Bill.

Airbus needs its supply chain to work the day after we leave the EU. Responsibility for that lies with the EU. They have consistently been obstructive toward Britain but if they continue to do so they will damage Airbus Industry not just in Britain but in France, Germany and Spain. I doubt that the electorates of these countries will thank them for that. and I dare say the unions will be unimpressed.

It's not Britain that Airbus need to put pressure on it is the EU.

[maat]

Heathrow Harry posted:

"Mine is not to leave - and that works fine"

"Do you feel ANY responsibility for the chaos this is causing?"

- Whether you or I like it or not Harry, the democratic vote was to leave the EU.

[BAengineer]

Originally Posted by SMT Member

The negotiations were very much in good faith as far as the EU goes, which is far more than can be said for the Cameron government who put EU membership to the vote. That was certainly not part of the negotiations and, right or wrong, seriously pissed off a lot of the EU.

If you are suggesting that the public shouldn't have had the opportunity to express a view over the result of Cameron's renegotiation, do you not think that would have made the EU even less popular in the UK than it already was?

At some point in any political process you have to try and take the majority with you.

[WB627]

And now BMW issue the same warning as Airbus...….

Will the last European Company to leave the UK, please turn out the lights...….

[bvcu]

Cant understand the upset ? If it was important Bae shouldn't have been allowed to sell and we have pumped a huge amount of govt money to keep the work here ! EU is a failed state now