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China junk duck and cover 43N to 43 S

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China junk duck and cover 43N to 43 S

Old 7th Mar 2018, 04:05
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China junk duck and cover 43N to 43 S

?Uncontrolled? Space Station To Crash In Early April, Experts Say « CBS Denver


China’s government reportedly lost control of their space lab, Tiangong-1, in June of 2016 and initially announced that the station would crash back to Earth in late 2017. That prediction was later revised to March 2018 after other international space agencies realized China had lost contact with the lab and began tracking its course.
The ESA has now released a new window for Tiangong-1’s eventual crash landing. Scientists believe the station will hit Earth between March 29 and April 9. The space agency admitted however, they won’t be able to pin down an exact date because of the space lab’s out-of-control route. “At no time will a precise time/location prediction from ESA be possible,” the ESA wrote on their blog.
Scientists also haven’t been able to narrow down the crash zone, which is predicted to be between the 43° North and 43° South latitudes. That massive section of the planet includes parts of every inhabited continent on Earth. “Even a couple of days before it re-enters we probably won’t know better than six or seven hours, plus or minus, when it’s going to come down,” Harvard astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell told The Guardian in 2016.
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Old 7th Mar 2018, 14:20
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Ah, Skylab redux.....anyone taking bets on Esperance?
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Old 7th Mar 2018, 15:32
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Will any pieces that are recovered by nearby residents have any collector value?
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Old 7th Mar 2018, 15:51
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TFOA* has been replaced with TFFS.

(Things Falling Off Aircraft)
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 08:11
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EBay

Originally Posted by lomapaseo View Post
Will any pieces that are recovered by nearby residents have any collector value?
Who knows, but easily tested with EBay...
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 09:25
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If bits of this go through my house roof, it is going to be an interesting insurance form to fill in. Am I insured for this?

Last edited by HHornet; 11th Mar 2018 at 13:37.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 09:30
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well if you ask your insurance company they tell you NO and they'll make a note in their records that you are planning to install a great big magnet to ensure a hit and a claim.................
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 11:25
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"Toxic or corrosive"? What power source does it have?
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 12:16
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If you ask your insurance company they, using that peculiar twisted reasoning that they use, will declare you a high risk client because you were worried enough to call them about it, and load your premium as well as alerting all the other companies that you are riskier than average. And that's before they come to look for the magnet.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 12:39
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Originally Posted by jolihokistix View Post
"Toxic or corrosive"? What power source does it have?
Not so much the power source as the fuel, hydrazine is a good bet for anything in space, the tanks may well survive reentry and they won't be empty because there was at least enough for a controlled de-orbit burn before they lost command link. Hydrazine is of course toxic and corrosive and generally worth avoiding.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 14:22
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Thank you infrequentflyer. Just done some remedial reading about it.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 14:49
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Originally Posted by TangoAlphad View Post
What are the odds of anything significant in size surviving re-entry?
Very high, in fact almost certain some parts will reach the surface, assuming by significant size you mean large enough to cause an injury.

But the chances of anything hitting people, buildings, cars etc are astronomically low. I mean, it might make a hole in some farmers field...

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Old 11th Mar 2018, 16:13
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Originally Posted by TangoAlphad View Post
What are the odds of anything significant in size surviving re-entry?
Fairly high. The odds of those pieces causing any trouble, however, is fairly low. Planet Earth is a big place (regardless of what Herr Trump says) and a space station is relatively small. Statistics plays against anyone or anything [aside from desert/sea] being hit by by this debris.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 16:34
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Chinese roulette, but relatively smaller than the Russian and US ones that came down some years ago.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 16:45
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If bits of this go through my house roof, it is going to be an interesting insurance form to fill in. Am I insured for this?
well if you ask your insurance company they tell you NO and they'll make a note in their records that you are planning to install a great big magnet to ensure a hit and a claim.................
If you ask your insurance company they, using that peculiar twisted reasoning that they use, will declare you a high risk client because you were worried enough to call them about it, and load your premium as well as alerting all the other companies that you are riskier than average. And that's before they come to look for the magnet.
Or, you can have a socialised insurance like in my Canton which insures all residences in the Canton for all risks. Low premiums* combined with complete coverage.

*I also usually get a rebate each year because claims haven't kept up with the premiums.

Last edited by ExXB; 11th Mar 2018 at 19:46.
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Old 11th Mar 2018, 21:09
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Originally Posted by donotdespisethesnake View Post
Very high, in fact almost certain some parts will reach the surface, assuming by significant size you mean large enough to cause an injury.

But the chances of anything hitting people, buildings, cars etc are astronomically low. I mean, it might make a hole in some farmers field...
Well per my earlier post, the object in that video looks a lot like a propellant tank, and if it did come from space and if it was a hydrazine tank (or if I didn't know...) then I would be staying a bit further away from it than those people are...
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Old 12th Mar 2018, 17:29
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TIANGONG 1 - NORAD 37820 - 3D Online Satellite Tracking
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Old 12th Mar 2018, 23:28
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In the lobby of the old Carnarvon WA tracking station in the early 70's they had on display a small fuel tank that had survived re-entry.

From memory it was about 250 - 300 mm diameter and looked pretty much intact except that it was split about half way around, presumably damage from when it had hit the ground.
Not a bad effort considering that the shell thickness was probably (again from memory) only about 0.5 mm - total mass only about 0.6.kg.
Would I like to have been hit by that? No I would not.
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Old 13th Mar 2018, 01:19
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Originally Posted by TangoAlphad View Post
What are the odds of anything significant in size surviving re-entry?
I was on one of the Space Shuttle Columbia's recovery team, at least one of the hydrazine tank was intact and still half full ... It was incredible that some of the items were completely burnt up, while others looked like quite shiny and new.
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Old 30th Mar 2018, 00:36
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E) navigation warning: Aircraft are advised that a potential hazard
may occur due to uncontrolled re-entry of tiangong-1 satellite
fragments into the earth atmosphere estimated by italian airspace
agency (asi) in a time frame btn 28th march 2018 hr 1537 and 4th
april 2018 hr 0543. According to the forecast trajectory,
tiangong-1 satellite could jeopardize the overall italian fir
south of 440000n
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