An-148 missing after takeoff from Moscow

[10 DME ARC]

Some observations as a controller who's training 36 years ago was defiantly in the non automation era. Are we approaching a reverse of the improved accident rate with automation/technology where the accident rate will increase with lack of experience when things go wrong??
Plus with all this automation why can't a heater for pitot or static source automatically turn on when needed??!!

[Heathrow Harry]

No - one accident does not reverse the incredible improvement in accident rates

We have different accidents these days - or more likely we always had accidents like this - it's only because we've reduced the others (eg CFT, engine problems etc) that we focus on these loss-of-control occurrences

"On average, from the point of view of passengers, the airline industry as a whole, over the last five years was almost eight times safer than it was as recently as ten years ago and almost 20 times safer than 20 years ago."

Flight Accident Review of 2017

[Double Back]

We as an industry have gotten to a point where our customers think that we can deliver a 100% on-time, guaranteed and safe flight and arrival. Only we ourselves know what can go wrong and it sometimes will. That not all the variables and threats we can control.

During one of my flights we had to cancel the flight from BKK, bound for Europe, as some catering truck driver punctuated the hull and we needed an extra nite stop. Leaving BKK back to the city I talked to a father with two accompanied kids and he said the forced (but paid) stopover in the hotel posed problems to him as the extra expenses like calling home (was in the pre-mobile phone era) was impossible. He had spent ALL his money in BKK, till the last dime! Never occurred to him anything out-of-the-expected COULD happen to them. Just reach the airport, "hop" in the plane, sit the 11 hours out and be home.

[ATC Watcher]

@10 DME ARC :

Are we approaching a reverse of the improved accident rate with automation/technology where the accident rate will increase with lack of experience when things go wrong??

That was my way of thinking as well. I can see how far training has been reduced to minimum ,partly due to automation taking over many tasks, but at the same time , how much reliance is done on humans taking over when automation fails ( or fails to warn you) . That is a problem.

@Heathrow Harry :

We have different accidents these days - or more likely we always had accidents like this - it's only because we've reduced the others (eg CFT, engine problems etc) that we focus on these loss-of-control occurrences

You are probably right. A question to you if I may : Do you see the huge increase in safety regulations in the last decades having an impact on the reduction of accidents?

[Herod]

Flying has become much safer over recent years. However, as has been pointed out, it is impossible to make it completely risk-free. There will always be occasions where the crew need to take control and fly at least semi-manually. This is where training should be focused.

[10 DME ARC]

And it's not just one accident! Loss of control from an unusual experience, go around or a cruise disturbance are happening more and more! AFR447 was very disturbing two experienced pilots stalled the aircraft and then three couldn't work out how to recover from it! Especially leaving the most junior pilot in the captain's seat with side stick pulled back!!

[Heathrow Harry]

let's keep generic discussions of safety where they belong - on the safety thread...................

[flash8]

why can't a pilot simply ... use pitch/power...

It's a question I ask myself almost daily, but still hulls are lost every few years where recovery should have been straightforward, many often I suspect disorientated by conflicting instruments/warnings and unable to think calmly and straight. Like to think it wouldn't happen to me, but never say never, problem is situations like this escalate real fast into an irrecoverable state.

If its the case here it certainly won't be the last.

[Starbear]

Sheppey

Next time you are in a simulator ask the instructor to give you a blocked static vent before take off roll starts. First hint there is a problem is after lift off when both the altimeter and VSI fail to register. A few seconds later the ASI needle stops increasing as the aircraft climbs and then goes backwards. That may trigger a false windshear warning. Eventually the reducing IAS sets off a false stick shaker.

Are you sure that the stick shaker in this case was false? It should only be triggered by AoA and is usually the one thing that can be relied upon with erroneous Air Data (certianly for Boeing and Airbus a/c). In the Birgenair incident already referred to the stick shaker was the only valid reference and they all the other warnings go off as you described. I too have done this in the sim and it w as challenging enough even when briefed.

[Kulverstukas]

Part of CVR is leaking in the media today

CPT: Up! Th-a-a-t.
FO: Just a second.
CPT: And you dow...
FO: That’s a bull****!
CPT: No, well, I think you wanted it (does not finish the sentence). And you, on the contrary - down.
FO: Okay, okay, you'll talk later. I mean everything else. So, now control everything!
CPT: Everything, everything is fine.
FO: Ok, speed is ok now.
VOICE WARNING: Speed compare, speed compare.
FO: Wo-o-ops ... 390!
CPT: Why you down?! Where you down? Why down?! Where?!
VOICE WARNING: Speed compare, speed compare.
FO: Yes, because stop f*****g talking, speed is 200, f*****g ****!
CPT: Altitude! Altitude! Altitude!
VOICE WARNING: Terrain ahead! Terrain ahead! PULL UP! Terrain ahead!
CPT: Up!
VOICE WARNING: Terrain ahead! Terrain ahead! PULL UP! Terrain ahead!
CPT: That’s f*****g finish.
STOP OF REC

PS: is it fake or not is quite unclear. There is two major flaws:
- TAWS at An-148 speaks russian (and at this "transcript" it's in english) confirmed that there is EGPWS MK V on this plane
- unreliable speed warnings timings are not "in line" with MAK preliminary report - according to it, AP was switched off only after second one.

[Kulverstukas]

According to Rules for Investigation of Accidents and Incidents with Civil Aircraft in the Russian Federation (Gov.app. of June 18, 1998 No. 609, red. No. 854 of November 19, 2008) in 30 days after accident must be published itinerary report if investigation continues.

[czarnajama]

CVR release?

Originally Posted by Kulverstukas

According to Rules for Investigation of Accidents and Incidents with Civil Aircraft in the Russian Federation (Gov.app. of June 18, 1998 No. 609, red. No. 854 of November 19, 2008) in 30 days after accident must be published itinerary report if investigation continues.

Would the actual CVR recording be released? That (somehow!) was done for the 10 April 2010 crash of the Polish Presidential Tu-154M near Smolensk, and combined with other data (e.g. photographs, Google Earth etc.) allowed Prof. Pawel Artymowicz (University of Toronto) to construct an independent dynamical model of the final sequence of events (largely in agreement with Russian and Polish official simulations). His brother Andrzej was later attached to the official prosecutorial investigation and was able, in Moscow, to obtain much better playback and re-recording of the actual CVR, providing the best evidence to date of what actually happened (a matter of the greatest political significance in Poland). Although it is never done in the West, the release of the actual CVR recording in the end led to a much better investigation, even if highly uncomfortable for, and still suppressed by, the Law and Justice party, elected to government in Oct. 2015. In countries where government agencies are not widely trusted, the release of such material provides an important degree of transparency and allows the truth to be determined.

[Kulverstukas]

Originally Posted by czarnajama

Would the actual CVR recording be released?

Not in the interim report. I think in final report it will be published, at least key parts, as MAK usually did.

[core_dump]

Originally Posted by Kulverstukas

Not in the interim report. I think in final report it will be published, at least key parts

czarnajama was asking about the actual recording audio, not a transcript.

Originally Posted by czarnajama

Although it is never done in the West

It certainly was done in the past. I forget what year we outlawed that here; I want to say early 1980s?

[Kulverstukas]

Originally Posted by core_dump

czarnajama was asking about the actual recording audio, not a transcript.

AFAIK it was done by polish media, not officially.

[flash8]

From the CVR transcript

That’s f*****g finish.

Probably translated from the Russian p**detz if I had to guess, hard to translate it and convey exactly what it means (this is one interpretation), but I'd be almost sure that would have been the translated word.

[mikeepbc]

Originally Posted by Kulverstukas

AFAIK it was done by polish media, not officially.

Large parts of the CVR recording (including the most disturbing final part) were officially released by MAK in 2011.

You Tube

[Kulverstukas]

Originally Posted by mikeepbc

Large parts of the CVR recording (including the most disturbing final part) were officially released by MAK in 2011.

According to my memory and Wiki MAK published CVR only after it was done by Polish media which get it from Polish team involved in investigation.

[Kulverstukas]

Authorities grounded all flights of "Saratov Airline" (they also has five Yak-42D and two E-195) and all An-148 in other airlines (Angara airlines — 5; Rossya SF — 6; EMERCOM/MChS — 2; AirForces — 12)

[Kulverstukas]

Angara airlines dismissed information that it's fleet of An-148 was grounded.