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An-148 missing after takeoff from Moscow

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An-148 missing after takeoff from Moscow

Old 11th Feb 2018, 23:17
  #61 (permalink)  
 
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I see here, in that video of impact, a replay of the final seconds of the Hawker airshow crash on a larger scale. More or less as Grumpi described - an attempted pullout from a high-speed dive for which there was simply not enough altitude for successful recovery.

Resulting in a shallow ground contact at very high airspeed, and ejecta from the aircraft (probably, from the flying fireball, the center wing/fuselage section containing fuel) and other debris forward over a large distance.

That, of course, will not be the critical cause, which is **whatever** occurred at or about 6000 feet and caused the steep dive in the first place. Simply the outcome.
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 00:15
  #62 (permalink)  
 
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i have it that Ivanov Vyacheslav the CFO of Rosatom was onboard.
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 00:53
  #63 (permalink)  
 
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The Moscow Regional Transportation Authority has opened a criminal case into the violation of safety rules -perhaps routine procedure
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 01:16
  #64 (permalink)  
 
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i have it that Ivanov Vyacheslav the CFO of Rosatom was onboard.
looked at the released list and different patronymic... so unlikely.
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 05:12
  #65 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by flash8 View Post
given the now pretty high security at DME would hopefully like to rule that one out. Huge improvements on the old days and now world class, I used to operate out of there and things really have changed.
I can 100% assure you, you are WRONG.

I flew through DME* in december and was astonished to see I could take items through hand baggage that would never ever have been allowed through a European airport.

Most of all that anti-terror BS in Putin's republic is just that,- to "reassure" the public that they can be seen to be doing something (mostly paranoiac, and time wasting).

Everywhere there are gates with metal detectors, stations, airports,border crossings, even going to visit ice castles in provincial towns!
None of it is any use,- providing employment for zillions of jobsworths.

I also note the world's press (+BBC) appears to believe Orenburg/Orsk is in the Ural "mountains" (sigh).

If they can't even learn basic school geography, what hope of reporting the slightest detail correctly?

*I have to qualify, SVO is no better, and a baggage check in the hall/corridor after aeroexpress causes nothing but massive annoyance, cos the organisation at busy periods is cr..p
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 06:30
  #66 (permalink)  
 
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 07:05
  #67 (permalink)  
 
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Kulver's latest video says the same story as the surveillance video camera. The main wreckage hit at a shallow angle with a substantial forward velocity.
The crucial question remains: where is the cockpit section shown on the initial video in relation to the main impact site. I have seen no trace of smoking wreckage on that frst video, so at a considerable distance I would presume - is it before or after... ?
Same applies to the mangled turbine shaft.
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 07:10
  #68 (permalink)  
 
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A special thank you to Kulverstukas for reposting photographs and videos from the crash site.

It makes a welcome break from the wild speculation all over the internet. I wish people wouldn't just guess in the absence of more details.
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 07:22
  #69 (permalink)  
 
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Impact place



Debris

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Old 12th Feb 2018, 07:38
  #70 (permalink)  
 
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Unverified so treat with caution.

.Saratov lost their certification not one year ago due to improper flight deck procedures during inspection

the same Antonov An-148 in the crash had been sold to Saratov after GTK Rossiya had complained on numerous occasions to Antonov about reliability issues with it's electrical and engine systems in cold weather
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 08:06
  #71 (permalink)  
 
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I am thinking blocked pitot, and increase in indicated speed with altitude, thrust perhaps coming to idle (auto throttle if it has) and stall.
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 08:13
  #72 (permalink)  
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.Saratov lost their certification not one year ago due to improper flight deck procedures during inspection
Mary Schiavo on CNN yesterday said it was due to someone other than the crew being in flight deck during a flight. A minor thing, She also said that lack of spares was an issue on the aircraft type. Do not know where she got this from but she is (was at least ) generally well informed.
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 08:58
  #73 (permalink)  
 
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The 2015 incident is written about in detail here: https://airlinegeeks.com/2018/02/11/...t-near-moscow/

2015 Controversy
Until Sunday’s accident, Saratov Airlines has had a mostly unblemished safety record. One exception is an unusual incident which occurred on Jul. 19 of 2015, where a surprise inspection by the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency found ‘a violation of Russian Federal Aviation Regulations concerning the presence of persons other than flight crew in the cockpit during operations.’

The subsequent investigation found that on a flight from Saratov Tsentralny (RTW) to Antalya, Turkey, a ‘close relative’ of the airline’s general director was found to be present on the flight-deck without official authorization.

As a result of this incursion, the airline was banned from operating international flights. At the time, foreign destinations included Ukraine, Azerbaijan, and Montenegro. As mentioned above, only international routes to Armenia and Georgia currently operate. In response, the airline took action against a number of employees, as well as introducing a number of policy changes to ensure no such errors would occur again.

And from the time:
Saratov Airlines loses its international business over security violation - Russian aviation news

Commenting on the implicit danger of letting an outsider inside the cockpit, Rosaviacia reminded another incident, that resulted in a crash that killed 75 people aboard an Aeroflot Airbus A310 aircraft in March 1994. The cause of the accident was a pilot’s decision to let his children into the cockpit and allow them to take control of the aircraft.
Which... well, it's quite a big jump from 'letting someone unauthorised onto the flight deck' to 'handing over control and walking away', but whatever.
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 09:01
  #74 (permalink)  
 
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 09:25
  #75 (permalink)  
 
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Can anyone here (Kulverstukas?) pinpoint the accident site with a latitude/longitude, or a screen shot of Google Maps/Earth?

The initial reports stated it was "in the vicinity of the village. Argunovo, Ramensky district, Moscow region", which is close to where the Flight Radar 24 track ended. There are a couple of candidate villages of that name in the vicinity of the end of the track, located at 55.284126, 38.393218 and 55.348870, 38.486665, though I suspect it is the former, which is much closer to the end of the flight track.

I have done a visual search of the topography of both areas in Google Maps satellite view, comparing them with the UAV video above (thanks to Kulverstukas), but have been unable to match features to locate the accident site. Admittedly, the current heavy snow cover doesn't help with such a visual search

Any ideas for a precise location? Just curious.


LATER EDIT: I think I have now found the precise spot: 55.299086, 38.403529. Curiosity satisfied.

Last edited by Abbey Road; 12th Feb 2018 at 09:40. Reason: Addition to detail.
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 09:27
  #76 (permalink)  
 
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The FR data is garbage; about all you can make up from it is that they climbed into IMC, turned 090, got the ground speed up to around 300 kts (~560 KPH) and bounced around 6000 feet/2000 meters for a while, then put the nose down. You might see wild accelerations in the (garbage) fine-grained data, but you can't conclude much more than that. Somatogravic illusion?
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 09:41
  #77 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Abbey Road View Post
Can anyone here (Kulverstukas?) pinpoint the accident site with a latitude/longitude, or a screen shot of Google Maps/Earth?
Camera https://goo.gl/maps/1nspZdbyexH2
Impact https://goo.gl/maps/VN3zEkdoVup
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 09:43
  #78 (permalink)  
 
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Left arrow - impact
Vertical arrow - engine part
Flight path - almost exactly W-E i.e. left to right.
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 09:48
  #79 (permalink)  
 
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Operation of Saratov's AN-148 is suspended
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Old 12th Feb 2018, 09:54
  #80 (permalink)  
 
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Kulverstukas, thanks, I think we got there at pretty much the same time.

I believe your second link is the correct spot, on the north-west side of Stepanovskoye.
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