Jet goes down on its way to Medellin, Colombia
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: LSZG
Age: 52
Posts: 107
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Awesome. Thank you!
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: LSZG
Age: 52
Posts: 107
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Join Date: Sep 2001
Location: Third planet from the sun
Posts: 383
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I find this additional info recently added on avherald.com very interesting. It shows that even without payload they would have been approximately 1450 kg short of a legal blocks fuel to perform the flight. I think it's pretty sure that they departed very much above Max TOW. Even with optimistic weights being used, there would have been less fuel in the tanks then the required trip fuel! 
Originally Posted by avherald.com
Fuel Computations
A dispatcher at a large airline together with input from The Aviation Herald computed various flight plan possibilities with respect to distances and fuel needed according to Bolivia's law. During the accident flight the enroute winds averaged at a headwind component of 4 knots.
In summary it can be said, that flights from Santa Cruz (VVI) to Medellin (MDE) or Bogota (BOG) could not have been planned legally, even if the aircraft was equipped with pannier tanks. Even in optimistic computations the computed trip fuel alone, without any taxi, contingency, diversion or reserve fuel, would have exceeded the standard fuel tank capacity (9362kg).
The dispatcher computed three different flight plans, see in detail at the PDF:
Santa Cruz-Medellin Alternate Bogota with no payload: Trip Fuel 8,660kg, Release Fuel 11,838kg
Santa Cruz-Medellin Alternate Bogota optimistic weights: Trip Fuel 9,380kg, Release Fuel 12,461kg
Santa Cruz-Bogota Alternate Medellin optimistic weights: Trip Fuel 9,260kg, Release Fuel 12,578kg
Fuel Stop Possibilities
Along the route following possibilities were checked with respect of a possible fuel stop (rounded Great Circle distances used for first leg to fuel stop and second leg to Medellin):
- Cobija (Bolivia, SLCO, 500nm+1100nm): operating from sunrise to sunset only, not open anymore at estimated time of arrival
- Tabatinga (Brazil, SBTT, 900nm+700nm): Brazil did not permit flights from Brazil to Colombia for the Bolivia registered operator, in addition the aerodrome and fuel facilities would have been closed after 23:00Z
- Leticia (Colombia, SKLT, 900nm+700nm): The airport would be open 24/7, fuel services however officially only available until 00:30Z, too tight for estimated arrival
- Bogota (Colombia, SKBO, 1500nm+100nm): as seen above not legally possible
Summary: provided an arrangement with the fuel services in Leticia could have been reached, so that refuelling would have been possible after usual service hours, Leticia would have been an ideal fuel stop.
A dispatcher at a large airline together with input from The Aviation Herald computed various flight plan possibilities with respect to distances and fuel needed according to Bolivia's law. During the accident flight the enroute winds averaged at a headwind component of 4 knots.
In summary it can be said, that flights from Santa Cruz (VVI) to Medellin (MDE) or Bogota (BOG) could not have been planned legally, even if the aircraft was equipped with pannier tanks. Even in optimistic computations the computed trip fuel alone, without any taxi, contingency, diversion or reserve fuel, would have exceeded the standard fuel tank capacity (9362kg).
The dispatcher computed three different flight plans, see in detail at the PDF:
Santa Cruz-Medellin Alternate Bogota with no payload: Trip Fuel 8,660kg, Release Fuel 11,838kg
Santa Cruz-Medellin Alternate Bogota optimistic weights: Trip Fuel 9,380kg, Release Fuel 12,461kg
Santa Cruz-Bogota Alternate Medellin optimistic weights: Trip Fuel 9,260kg, Release Fuel 12,578kg
Fuel Stop Possibilities
Along the route following possibilities were checked with respect of a possible fuel stop (rounded Great Circle distances used for first leg to fuel stop and second leg to Medellin):
- Cobija (Bolivia, SLCO, 500nm+1100nm): operating from sunrise to sunset only, not open anymore at estimated time of arrival
- Tabatinga (Brazil, SBTT, 900nm+700nm): Brazil did not permit flights from Brazil to Colombia for the Bolivia registered operator, in addition the aerodrome and fuel facilities would have been closed after 23:00Z
- Leticia (Colombia, SKLT, 900nm+700nm): The airport would be open 24/7, fuel services however officially only available until 00:30Z, too tight for estimated arrival
- Bogota (Colombia, SKBO, 1500nm+100nm): as seen above not legally possible
Summary: provided an arrangement with the fuel services in Leticia could have been reached, so that refuelling would have been possible after usual service hours, Leticia would have been an ideal fuel stop.
Last edited by sabenaboy; 8th Dec 2016 at 08:59.
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: UK
Posts: 15
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
When I say "media", I'm referring to the South American press being able to use data from sites such as Flight24, avHerald and yes, even discussion forums such as this, in order to jump on the story and press some difficult questions from the outset.
And whilst the Anglo-speaking media has been abysmal on the basic facts & details, that extra international attention has surely been beneficial in providing extra momentum. ( That's what they are saying in the S. Am. press at any rate and let's face it Bolivia doesn't want to be downgraded again by FAA.)
For example, within 24 hrs those journalists had the info. on the aircraft endurance and within a few days were attempting to analyse it's previous flight history.
Estadão Data has analyzed all the flights of Avro RJ85 since January 31 of this year, date from which there are registrations in the site Flightradar24.com. In those 303 days, the plane left the ground on 201 occasions. In 83% of the cases where the time of the route was recorded by Flightradar24.com (151 times), the trips lasted less than two hours and a half.
In the interviews with the surviving owners/shareholders, it was noticeable that in the immediate aftermath, (on the 29th, they hadn't yet appreciated that the cat was out of the bag across various "rumour mills". *
This meant both the surviving owners, employees, even the son of the pilot, were all making initial statements wtte : the aircraft had the endurance to fly that distance direct. (After closing ranks, it moved to - it's all just pilot Quiroga's fault. See final link at end which claims Quiroga actually had no managerial input in the company.)
* A few examples from LaMia employees :
29.11 M. Pacheco (company spokesman) was claiming the aircraft had a "4-5 hour flight range" ! and adds that “ there were devices( dispositivi) to increase the endurance, according to the flight plan” and "The representative, however, pointed out that, depending on the level of the flight, capacity could vary. It depends a lot on the flight levels that the aircraft uses."
Mario Pacheco, portavoz de aerolínea en donde viajaba Chapecoense: nuestros aviones tienen entre 10 y 15 años de fabricación - LA F.m.
Voo poderia parar e reabastecer mas plano B complicou, diz diretor da Lamia - Tribuna Hoje - O portal de notícias que mais cresce em Alagoas Tribuna Hoje - O portal de notícias que mais cresce em Alagoas
30.11.owner Vargas "We have never experienced any incident before and had already made a direct flight from Santa Cruz to Medellin before,"
Lamia, la pequeña aerolínea operada en Bolivia que protagonizó el trágico accidente del club de fútbol Chapecoense cerca de Medellín - BBC Mundo
Only FA X.Suarez was upfront, after rescue - she says she had crewed the same aircraft when she worked for SAM and knew what RJ stood for and that with Lamia "the operation of the aircraft was stretched to its limit in an improper manner."
Anyway, after seeing the brief footage of the investigation team's meeting yesterday, am slightly more optimistic that this won't be a totally limited investigation. ( Att.Generals of all three nations met yesterday and their "white-board" with their flow-chart of initial questions was displayed.) At the link below, the points they say they are investigating include
- (under the sub-heading of manslaughter)Ministry of Public Works as well as Aasana, DGAC, M.Quiroga & LaMia.
- "administrative corruption"
- "relationship with ConMebol"
Jornal Nacional - Promotores de Bolívia, Colômbia e Brasil investigam acidente da LaMia
However, I very much doubt the investigation will go as far as this next Bolivian journalist. Corruscating and depressing. ( He's also currently in exile, in Brazil, due to reporting on Bolivian "irregularities.")
Sol de Pando. Quintana, el padrino de LaMia - eju.tv
Last edited by jess15; 8th Dec 2016 at 11:44. Reason: typos
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Schiphol
Posts: 475
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Update 4 - tail and seating
Adding to my Update number 3 at #729. Jet goes down on its way to Medellin, Colombia - Page 37 - PPRuNe Forums
I found a second video showing the high ridge more clearly and from a better angle. It shows the horizontal and vertical tail still connected with relatively little deformation, sitting on the top edge of the high ridge. The tailspeedbrake is lying just a few meters away from the tail. This trends to confirm the impact and breakup guesstimate scenario.
In my update 3 - I stated that, based on the indicated seating arrangement, the three players were very lucky. I found an article which stated that at least one of the surviving players had changed seats during the flight with one of the medical staff. Which means the player moved to a seat more aft.
Still no sign of the front of the plane, neither cockpit nor front cabin fuselage, except for the captains main instrument panel plus the captains jacket. But the location where these were found is not clear. It is possible that the nose, cockpit and front are located under the large crown of the big tree that was pushed over. If so, then that would corroborate the guesstimated impact and breakup scenario. If true, then my impression is that the speed at impact was less than what is indicated in most newspaper articles.
I found a second video showing the high ridge more clearly and from a better angle. It shows the horizontal and vertical tail still connected with relatively little deformation, sitting on the top edge of the high ridge. The tailspeedbrake is lying just a few meters away from the tail. This trends to confirm the impact and breakup guesstimate scenario.
In my update 3 - I stated that, based on the indicated seating arrangement, the three players were very lucky. I found an article which stated that at least one of the surviving players had changed seats during the flight with one of the medical staff. Which means the player moved to a seat more aft.
Still no sign of the front of the plane, neither cockpit nor front cabin fuselage, except for the captains main instrument panel plus the captains jacket. But the location where these were found is not clear. It is possible that the nose, cockpit and front are located under the large crown of the big tree that was pushed over. If so, then that would corroborate the guesstimated impact and breakup scenario. If true, then my impression is that the speed at impact was less than what is indicated in most newspaper articles.
Apart from all the others that this incompetent individual did that was the final straw. I heard it on the CVR that he had called for gear down but was unsure of when exactly. An experienced First officer might have "forgotten" to hear that.That was his last chance gone. Better a wheels up on the runway than what happened.
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: LSZG
Age: 52
Posts: 107
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Not sure about the CVR. The communications we are hearing, which leaked, i believe that it is the voice recorder from the ATC and not from the Flight deck. There were 3 persons in cockpit and you don't hear any voices loud and clear from others.
For me, so far, nothing leaked from the plane FDR or CVR. This is all TWR recordings. A pity that liveatc has an outage in SKGR since october.
Asides from this, you are correct. You will notice that on his flight profile, his speed dropped from roughly 200 knots down to 140 knots with a steady sink rate. Continuing the plot, you will realize that he ended exactly where he ended if you don't change something.
But there is a factor.
At the time when the lowered gear, they had the last drop of fuel. A few seconds after this, they don't. There was no more way to raise the gear. As per my knowledge, there is no manual handle to raise a gear.
Unfortunately, not even if we ever get to hear the CVR, we will know why he decided to lower the gear. He was still in decent, around 12nm away from the airport. He confirmed being on localizer but he was not on GS yet. Additionaly I still don't get it why they would need any vectors if previously they confirmed to ATC that they are already descending and on localizer.
And that the pice of ... already left FL210 before the ATC instructed to descend is another bad thing. he took the risk of a collision with the LAN3020 which was flying below him on FL180.
Bad airman ship!
For me, so far, nothing leaked from the plane FDR or CVR. This is all TWR recordings. A pity that liveatc has an outage in SKGR since october.
Asides from this, you are correct. You will notice that on his flight profile, his speed dropped from roughly 200 knots down to 140 knots with a steady sink rate. Continuing the plot, you will realize that he ended exactly where he ended if you don't change something.
But there is a factor.
At the time when the lowered gear, they had the last drop of fuel. A few seconds after this, they don't. There was no more way to raise the gear. As per my knowledge, there is no manual handle to raise a gear.
Unfortunately, not even if we ever get to hear the CVR, we will know why he decided to lower the gear. He was still in decent, around 12nm away from the airport. He confirmed being on localizer but he was not on GS yet. Additionaly I still don't get it why they would need any vectors if previously they confirmed to ATC that they are already descending and on localizer.
And that the pice of ... already left FL210 before the ATC instructed to descend is another bad thing. he took the risk of a collision with the LAN3020 which was flying below him on FL180.
Bad airman ship!
The real issue is they ran out of fuel because they made a choice to ignore almost every rule involved in flight planning not to mention common sense.
Join Date: May 2010
Location: Amazon Jungle
Age: 38
Posts: 304
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
This would require 7th freedom rights. Is this likely, considering 6th freedom was not granted?
(I know nothing about the Chicago Convention )
(I know nothing about the Chicago Convention )
Join Date: Apr 2002
Location: London UK
Posts: 171
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
However, I very much doubt the investigation will go as far as this next Bolivian journalist. Corruscating and depressing. ( He's also currently in exile, in Brazil, due to reporting on Bolivian "irregularities.")
Sol de Pando. Quintana, el padrino de LaMia - eju.tv
Sol de Pando. Quintana, el padrino de LaMia - eju.tv
Last edited by Hippy; 8th Dec 2016 at 16:39.
Murky stuff indeed.
One thing I don't understand is the reference - in this and other articles - to Quiroga not having had any managerial responsibility at Lamia, when his LinkedIn profile (still viewable) lists him as Chief Pilot since September 2014.
One thing I don't understand is the reference - in this and other articles - to Quiroga not having had any managerial responsibility at Lamia, when his LinkedIn profile (still viewable) lists him as Chief Pilot since September 2014.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: London
Posts: 58
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
My guess, only a guess, goes something like this:
His previous company ecojet was prevented from getting off the ground by the "government"
He had family and friendship connections with LaMia.
He was reportedly short of money.
They gave him a job flying for LaMia, though he was reportedly uncomfortable with the Venezuelan/chavista origins of the company.
So, give him the job of chief pilot in name only and don't involve him in any company decisions or dodgy dealings.
It's ironic that the same source as that article, eju.tv, reports that he hadn't been paid for 8 months.
His previous company ecojet was prevented from getting off the ground by the "government"
He had family and friendship connections with LaMia.
He was reportedly short of money.
They gave him a job flying for LaMia, though he was reportedly uncomfortable with the Venezuelan/chavista origins of the company.
So, give him the job of chief pilot in name only and don't involve him in any company decisions or dodgy dealings.
It's ironic that the same source as that article, eju.tv, reports that he hadn't been paid for 8 months.
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: Kirkland, WA
Posts: 26
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
AerocatS2A - thanks for sharing the procedures - I took the liberty to add them to my post, hope OK, I mentioned the source. Can you advise what speed would be appropriate assuming something like 7,500 kg payload and zero fuel? Did the slow down to what appears to be about 125 KCAS seem about right for landing configuration? If you have the time, please let me know if I have the RJ85 features covered correctly. Thanks!
Peter
Satcom Guru: LMI2933 LAMIA AVRO RJ85 Medellín Deadstick
Join Date: Dec 2016
Location: UK
Posts: 15
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
AFAIK Ecojet is still operating.
Re Quiroga salary.
According to his father-in-law Pinto, at least 4 of the crew were not being paid at some point.
Piloto de LaMia pasaba apuros económicos | Noticias de Bolivia y el Mundo - EL DEBER
(Don't know if Pinto is believable but the company's financials were accessed by journalists last week. On paper, they had about US $16k.) Anyway if it's true, perhaps it helps add another explanation to this shared denial & risk-taking?
Re Quiroga salary.
According to his father-in-law Pinto, at least 4 of the crew were not being paid at some point.
“Upon receipt of the proposal to form the company, it teamed with other former military pilots like him, and formed the company.They took out loans in the bank to pay Bisa insurance of the ship and civilians, and all that corresponds in the proceedings, only then could rent the aircraft. He is not guilty as they want to accuse "he added. Eight months ago he and his four associates who formed his crew could not pay their own salaries.
(Don't know if Pinto is believable but the company's financials were accessed by journalists last week. On paper, they had about US $16k.) Anyway if it's true, perhaps it helps add another explanation to this shared denial & risk-taking?
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Bournemouth
Age: 78
Posts: 38
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There is an article on Celia in the current "El Deber" which includes her statement giving her side of the story and explaining her presence in Brazil. She says she has been under pressure to alter her original report.
The statement shows as a jpg file and needs magnifying to make it legible. It confirms what is already know rather than add much that is new.
Castedo: "Me ordenaron modificar el informe" | Noticias de Bolivia y el Mundo - EL DEBER
Oh and the Government has grounded TAM, the military airline .....
The statement shows as a jpg file and needs magnifying to make it legible. It confirms what is already know rather than add much that is new.
Castedo: "Me ordenaron modificar el informe" | Noticias de Bolivia y el Mundo - EL DEBER
Oh and the Government has grounded TAM, the military airline .....
lemme, I only have access to a BAe146-300 speed card and the speeds might be a few knots off compared to an RJ85 for the same weight. That said, it would appear they were far too slow for a glide. Speed for glide is Vfto + 30. Vfto for a 146-300 at 33000 kg is 165 knots, so best glide would have been around about 195 knots. That is with gear down or up, the only thing that would change that speed is flap selection and they wouldn't have been able to do that (unless possibly they already had Flap 18 in the hold).
For the glide, once you get the gear down, if you are unable to select flap, then you increase speed to maintain the 1NM / 1000' gear down glide profile. In other words that 1/1 profile is an easily remembered target that is achievable with the gear down rather than the best the aircraft can do.
For the glide, once you get the gear down, if you are unable to select flap, then you increase speed to maintain the 1NM / 1000' gear down glide profile. In other words that 1/1 profile is an easily remembered target that is achievable with the gear down rather than the best the aircraft can do.
