Jet goes down on its way to Medellin, Colombia
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Thanks Hippy: I was wondering the same; why did TWR give takeoff clearance? If the FPL office had advised the TWR of the situation then TWR could have held the a/c, yes/no?
Early on it was said that there was a company RHS pilot and the lady was an observer. There was even speculation the F/O was a captain. I think that has not been confirmed; nor any data about the F/O. Indeed their role in this event is not mentioned by anyone. Wanting to keep your job & wanting to stay alive are quite different. I thought S.Americans could be more assertive. We've seen this cockpit gradient problem in the Far East & SE Asia, but S.America? Mind you this one horse outfit might be the last chance for a co-jo. But what was the experience of the F/O? That must surely be known and become a factor in this discussion.
As for the dispatcher, who boarded the a/c, it's like loading the rifles of your own firing squad. Bizarre; or perhaps he had free tickets to the game.
No doubt there will be a local AAIB investigation and then a police criminal one. Follow the money. It would be no surprise to find a brown envelope link between Conmebol & LaMia.
CON ME BOL is an appropriate name, perhaps. A bit like one of Jasper Carrot's very early stories where he accepted a gig in Jersey with the flight paid for by 'Contours' only to find out it was only one way.
Early on it was said that there was a company RHS pilot and the lady was an observer. There was even speculation the F/O was a captain. I think that has not been confirmed; nor any data about the F/O. Indeed their role in this event is not mentioned by anyone. Wanting to keep your job & wanting to stay alive are quite different. I thought S.Americans could be more assertive. We've seen this cockpit gradient problem in the Far East & SE Asia, but S.America? Mind you this one horse outfit might be the last chance for a co-jo. But what was the experience of the F/O? That must surely be known and become a factor in this discussion.
As for the dispatcher, who boarded the a/c, it's like loading the rifles of your own firing squad. Bizarre; or perhaps he had free tickets to the game.
No doubt there will be a local AAIB investigation and then a police criminal one. Follow the money. It would be no surprise to find a brown envelope link between Conmebol & LaMia.
CON ME BOL is an appropriate name, perhaps. A bit like one of Jasper Carrot's very early stories where he accepted a gig in Jersey with the flight paid for by 'Contours' only to find out it was only one way.
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When the Captain in the LHS is the company owner, the gradient between him and the rest of the crew is massive, it's not a normal Captain / FO relation.
In this case the Captain had most likely a lot to gain financially from pressing the endurance to the maximum. Being Captain and owner, he is basically giving you your job, paying your salary etc.
So go figure about the massive gradient on the flight deck, very unhealthy indeed. Massive conflict of interest.
In this case the Captain had most likely a lot to gain financially from pressing the endurance to the maximum. Being Captain and owner, he is basically giving you your job, paying your salary etc.
So go figure about the massive gradient on the flight deck, very unhealthy indeed. Massive conflict of interest.
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Fuel exhaustion/starvation is not unknown amongst airline transport category aircraft. Recall Air Canada's 767 gliding in to Gimli. Air Transat's Airbus gliding in to the Azores. United's DC-8 near PDX. Avianca's 707 near JFK..Lynard Skynard's Convair 240 fuex...the list goes on and on..nuff said.
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Maybe 'Nomaj' needs translating from Spanish?)
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A0283
At this stage a very very premature guesstimate of a more probable impact and break-up sequence could be:
a. plane in a slightly pitch up attitude, pointing approximately in the direction of the VOR, at a relatively low forward speed,
b. hits the high ridge, which breaks off the tail section behind the aft pax door, and leaves the tail and elevator with the tailspeedbrake on top of the high ridge,
c. the front of the plane pitches forward and contacts trees and ground, which breaks off the cockpit section and fuselage section in front of the wing, the cockpit and front section (and maybe one or more engines) then sliding down the high ridge,
d. the center section plus wing plus aft section is projected forward and impacts the hill opposite (!??),
e. this impact breaks off the wing with part of the associated fuselage structure, wing plus flips over forward, the aft fuselage section continues the movement forward and slides over the wing and comes to a halt,
There are other possible sequences but with the material that i have this would be the most probable.
The question with this scenario is, how did anyone survive? At least two different answers might be applicable.
The first is - pure luck - there are a number of possible explanations that improve chances.
The second is - based on a maximum energy dissipation and lowest G's scenario - people sitting (probably on the left hand side) in the fuselage section aft of the wing and before the aft doorframe. Cabin crew having taken a passenger seat aft or in aft facing folding crew seat inclusive.
Finding photo's of the cockpit section would be priority1 if you would want to reduce the number of possible scenario's.
At this stage a very very premature guesstimate of a more probable impact and break-up sequence could be:
a. plane in a slightly pitch up attitude, pointing approximately in the direction of the VOR, at a relatively low forward speed,
b. hits the high ridge, which breaks off the tail section behind the aft pax door, and leaves the tail and elevator with the tailspeedbrake on top of the high ridge,
c. the front of the plane pitches forward and contacts trees and ground, which breaks off the cockpit section and fuselage section in front of the wing, the cockpit and front section (and maybe one or more engines) then sliding down the high ridge,
d. the center section plus wing plus aft section is projected forward and impacts the hill opposite (!??),
e. this impact breaks off the wing with part of the associated fuselage structure, wing plus flips over forward, the aft fuselage section continues the movement forward and slides over the wing and comes to a halt,
There are other possible sequences but with the material that i have this would be the most probable.
The question with this scenario is, how did anyone survive? At least two different answers might be applicable.
The first is - pure luck - there are a number of possible explanations that improve chances.
The second is - based on a maximum energy dissipation and lowest G's scenario - people sitting (probably on the left hand side) in the fuselage section aft of the wing and before the aft doorframe. Cabin crew having taken a passenger seat aft or in aft facing folding crew seat inclusive.
Finding photo's of the cockpit section would be priority1 if you would want to reduce the number of possible scenario's.
It also was reported it was approximately four hours before the first responders reached the scene.
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Re Hippy's post no 634, I would guess that "NOMAJ" is a typo for "NOMAS".
"DCT" could be "directo", so when Sra Celia pointed out that the SID was missing he replied "please put it in yourself, madam, as [no more than/ just/simply] direct (to) VIR".
She refused , telling him to get the clearance by radio on the tower frequency.
("No mas" or "nomas" occurs several times in the document. It is a very commonly used phrase in Bolivian spoken Spanish meaning, usually, "no more", and is something of a verbal "tic". Among Paceños there are other nuances).
I understood from earlier messages that the founders of LaMia, and the now deceased Captains, were/are retired Air Force Generals, so the "Command Gradient" would have been particularly steep, both in the air and on the ground.
Poor Celia would have been exposed to Quispe's "machismo" as well.
(Many years ago I spent a couple of years teaching Science in Bolivia and have visited the country several times since. I have no flying qualifications).
"DCT" could be "directo", so when Sra Celia pointed out that the SID was missing he replied "please put it in yourself, madam, as [no more than/ just/simply] direct (to) VIR".
She refused , telling him to get the clearance by radio on the tower frequency.
("No mas" or "nomas" occurs several times in the document. It is a very commonly used phrase in Bolivian spoken Spanish meaning, usually, "no more", and is something of a verbal "tic". Among Paceños there are other nuances).
I understood from earlier messages that the founders of LaMia, and the now deceased Captains, were/are retired Air Force Generals, so the "Command Gradient" would have been particularly steep, both in the air and on the ground.
Poor Celia would have been exposed to Quispe's "machismo" as well.
(Many years ago I spent a couple of years teaching Science in Bolivia and have visited the country several times since. I have no flying qualifications).
O Estado de Sao Paulo claims to have analysed all the accident aircraft’s flights registered on Flightradar24 since 31 Jan 2016, during which time the aircraft made 201 flights.
22 Aug 2016 Medellin>/Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2,975km 4h28m
28 Oct 2016 Cochabamba>Medellin 2.816km 4h27m
29 Oct 2016 Medellin>Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2,975km 4h32m
04 Nov 2016 Medellin>Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2,975km 4h33m
In early November the aircraft carried the Argentine squad from Buenos Aires to Belo Horizonte and back for a game against Brazil, 2,217km. The flight north took 4h4m and the return, 3h29m.
"Normalisation of deviance" indeed.
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I'm interested in how many people outside immediate Crew might know of Lamia's apparent habit of flying beyond fuel reserve limits. We've learned of the SCruz ARO Miss Celia....
But I'd also seen a comment about a Bolivian hangar tech or mgr complaining about their flights arriving w near dry tanks.
It seems these are the types of people who would indeed have knowledge.
Do we have any links for those hangar-guy complaints?
But I'd also seen a comment about a Bolivian hangar tech or mgr complaining about their flights arriving w near dry tanks.
It seems these are the types of people who would indeed have knowledge.
Do we have any links for those hangar-guy complaints?
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Re Hippy's post no 634, I would guess that "NOMAJ" is a typo for "NOMAS".
"DCT" could be "directo", so when Sra Celia pointed out that the SID was missing he replied "please put it in yourself, madam, as [no more than/ just/simply] direct (to) VIR".
("No mas" or "nomas" occurs several times in the document. It is a very commonly used phrase in Bolivian spoken Spanish meaning, usually, "no more", and is something of a verbal "tic". Among Paceños there are other nuances).
"DCT" could be "directo", so when Sra Celia pointed out that the SID was missing he replied "please put it in yourself, madam, as [no more than/ just/simply] direct (to) VIR".
("No mas" or "nomas" occurs several times in the document. It is a very commonly used phrase in Bolivian spoken Spanish meaning, usually, "no more", and is something of a verbal "tic". Among Paceños there are other nuances).
They were due to be sent to the UK AAIB at Farnborough for analysis.
But protocol dictates that any announcement re the findings should come from the Colombian Grupo Investigación de Accidentes.
But protocol dictates that any announcement re the findings should come from the Colombian Grupo Investigación de Accidentes.
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O Estado de Sao Paulo claims to have analysed all the accident aircraft’s flights registered on Flightradar24 since 31 Jan 2016, during which time the aircraft made 201 flights.
22 Aug 2016 Medellin>/Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2,975km 4h28m
28 Oct 2016 Cochabamba>Medellin 2.816km 4h27m
29 Oct 2016 Medellin>Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2,975km 4h32m
04 Nov 2016 Medellin>Santa Cruz de la Sierra 2,975km 4h33m
In early November the aircraft carried the Argentine squad from Buenos Aires to Belo Horizonte and back for a game against Brazil, 2,217km. The flight north took 4h4m and the return, 3h29m
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But I'd also seen a comment about a Bolivian hangar tech or mgr complaining about their flights arriving w near dry tanks.
It seems these are the types of people who would indeed have knowledge.
Tech log pages, fuel uplift dockets and fuel invoices on file. Should be a strong paper trail for the CAA.
It seems these are the types of people who would indeed have knowledge.
Tech log pages, fuel uplift dockets and fuel invoices on file. Should be a strong paper trail for the CAA.
I Have Control
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There is usually a lot of water residue in the tanks; it is never a good idea to fly on low fuel anyhow. My guess is that Lamia never drained their tanks routinely. That would be good engineering practice, so unlikely to have been performed with this company.
As for the clown in charge of this flight, and his actions, words fail me.
But to balance the anti-South American comments made here, I know of at least one very senior British training captain who routinely browbeat inexperienced FO's into operating with fuel well below plog. (Including myself, once, 11 years back). And this idiot was not even management, simply obsessed. Thankfully he retired recently. The mania for fuel savings and time saving can exist everywhere. It has no place in safe aviation.
As for the clown in charge of this flight, and his actions, words fail me.
But to balance the anti-South American comments made here, I know of at least one very senior British training captain who routinely browbeat inexperienced FO's into operating with fuel well below plog. (Including myself, once, 11 years back). And this idiot was not even management, simply obsessed. Thankfully he retired recently. The mania for fuel savings and time saving can exist everywhere. It has no place in safe aviation.
Patowalker
Agree with the pinch of salt, ergo "...claims...". And I've not seen any other research which might confirm or dispute the OESP claim. On the face of it, if it's true that LaMia conducted four flights between Medellin (Rio Negro) and Santa Cruz de la Sierra or Cochabamba in the recent past, might one not think the LaMia pilots had discovered a neat way around the rules, considering they had a man in place in the Bolivian equivalent of FAA?
The broad brush is pretty clear as to what happened; details will be forthcoming in the days, weeks, months ahead. Doubt any could be more shocking than what we've heard already.
Agree with the pinch of salt, ergo "...claims...". And I've not seen any other research which might confirm or dispute the OESP claim. On the face of it, if it's true that LaMia conducted four flights between Medellin (Rio Negro) and Santa Cruz de la Sierra or Cochabamba in the recent past, might one not think the LaMia pilots had discovered a neat way around the rules, considering they had a man in place in the Bolivian equivalent of FAA?
The broad brush is pretty clear as to what happened; details will be forthcoming in the days, weeks, months ahead. Doubt any could be more shocking than what we've heard already.
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In another article on that site it shows that the Bolivian President flew in that same aircraft on 15th November.