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Jeremy Vine Show - Pilotless Airliners

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Jeremy Vine Show - Pilotless Airliners

Old 20th Aug 2016, 17:44
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"When big electronics companies are able to produce a toaster that can toast a piece of bread the same colour on 2 sides,"

Couldn't they do this first, thus proving competence, then move onto the easy stuff of pilotless aircraft; it'll be a doddle after the toast hurdle.
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Old 20th Aug 2016, 17:44
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Originally Posted by InSoMnIaC
It is possible but it won't happen in our life time.

it will be extremely expensive to implement, overly complicated and less safe.
Cars are technically far trickier. All the major manufacturers are currently spending billions on autonomous cars and the y will be normal within 5 years.

They are also blazing the trail on the legal and insurance ramifications
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Old 20th Aug 2016, 17:55
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I've been trolling these hallowed threads for fifteen years or more. Pilotless airliners have been the Next Big Thing here for that entire period.

Didn't Missy Cummings predict they were about five years away... about seven years ago?

Let me tell you one fact that I do know - my airline is purchasing brand new 777F's at the factory... current rumor is that we will end up with near a hundred of them.... All staffed (usually) by four highly-paid, unionized pilots. New 767F's too....

As I've preached for years: Yes, it can be done. No, it can't be done cheaper.
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Old 20th Aug 2016, 17:59
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It could happen one day, after all, we have brainless radio presenters, Vine is a tabloid twerp!

Last edited by GGR155; 20th Aug 2016 at 18:56.
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Old 20th Aug 2016, 18:07
  #45 (permalink)  

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This program , & the contributions from the listening public contained within it, was a complete load of bullsh*t. They didn't have anyone on it who knew anything about the subject, & no one who could explain where we stand technically today & how this would all work out. All it consisted of were one or two people who had connections with victims of air crashes & a few meaningless anecdotes to share. It was all pointless nonsense !
It lived up to its usual standard.
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Old 20th Aug 2016, 19:30
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Indeed. Only about 1 percent of airliner landings are full autoland.
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Old 20th Aug 2016, 20:08
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All the major manufacturers are currently spending billions on autonomous cars and the y will be normal within 5 years.
Uh, no, they won't.

Even Google have said that widespread use of driverless cars could still be thirty years away (which, in tech terms, means 'forever'). By then, telepresense will have made them obsolete, anyway.
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Old 20th Aug 2016, 20:41
  #48 (permalink)  
 
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I remember when autoland "would NEVER work".
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Old 20th Aug 2016, 21:14
  #49 (permalink)  

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Jeremy Vine is a hopeless person intellectually, yet an able media guy in the best traditions of " The Sun". This radio programme proved it. He didn't research his subject but pontificated like a fool.

Heard him perform to the same low standard about the motor industry, Israel, and contemporary UK politics.
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Old 20th Aug 2016, 22:14
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Sevarg, as regards to your autoland comment I've been in the flightdeck when we've had to throw away an autoland because it was about to put us in a very dangerous position. Not to mention the fact that the wind limitations on an autoland are somewhat restrictive if you plan to do any flying in a Northern European winter.

What is one of the first things to happen in very turbulent conditions or when you get multiple failures? Yep that's right, autopilot gives up and hands control back to you. That's where we are right now. We are light years away from a fully autonomous AI flightdeck. You can bleat that "it's the future" and yes it almost certainly is, just as the Sun will inevitably swallow up the earth one day. But that doesn't mean it needs to concern us at the moment.
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Old 20th Aug 2016, 22:39
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I sometimes hear the Jeremy Vine Show as background noise when I am driving about. (Notice that I say “hear” and not “listen to”) There was a time when I made the mistake of taking his attitudes and statements as genuine reflections of what he actually thought and believed. That often made me very angry indeed. But over time I have come to realize that his job is to generate lively debate by inciting listeners to contribute their comments. He achieves this very effectively by spouting the most outlandish comments that he can think up. If you keep this fact in mind you will remain much calmer.

Personally I believe that we will have pilotless passenger aircraft at some time in the future. We already have pilotless vehicles flying to other planets and driving around on the surface of Mars, so pilotless passenger aircraft are not beyond the future bounds of possibility. Their introduction will provide a number of benefits and a number of new risks. Some people will be killed and some will be saved.


You may well be right. But, what is the human population going to do to earn its keep & pay for its travel on these computerized travel systems ?

You are making the mistake of assuming that we have been put on this planet to earn a living. Although people have needed to earn a living in the past, this will not necessarily be the case in the future. (we already have an increasingly large section of the population who get by quite happily without ever doing a days work). If we were to reach the stage at which automated machines could provide for all of our material needs, then there would be no need for anyone to work to earn a living. Given the option of getting everything you need for free, or flying passenger aircraft around the world, most people would go for the free option (and fly just for fun).
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Old 20th Aug 2016, 23:49
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Years ago, they thought Commercial Saturation Divers could be "done away with" and ROV's could take their place to do anything underwater from fixing oil pipelines to welding etc.----20 years later, Sat. Divers are still working world-wide doing the same jobs and no way will they be replaced----Similarly Pilots !
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Old 21st Aug 2016, 07:34
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Originally Posted by MG23
Uh, no, they won't.

Even Google have said that widespread use of driverless cars could still be thirty years away (which, in tech terms, means 'forever'). By then, telepresense will have made them obsolete, anyway.
Factually untrue.
Google are saying 2018

Forecasts | Driverless car market watch

Beyond Uber, Volvo and Ford: Other automakers' plans for self-driving vehicles - LA Times

Uber?s First Self-Driving Fleet Arrives in Pittsburgh This Month - Bloomberg

https://media.ford.com/content/fordm...elerating.html
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Old 21st Aug 2016, 09:45
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Keith Williams
What makes you think that in your scenario the State is going to provide for all our needs. True, it does so for some selfish, anti -social spongers ( & some unfortunate individuals) at the moment; but, it will never be able to meet all our needs - for everyone. In any case, what is the attraction of such a lifestyle. Do you really believe that we will be cosseted from the cradle to the grave ?
I have to question the point of taking everything challenging & enjoyable out of life (by way of computers taking over) & replacing those joys (& reasons for living ) by making us one homogenous group of robots all doing the same thing ie. nothing meaningful; & totally reliant on what "Big Brother" decides is good for us.
I have no great understanding of the science involved in your technical scenario - but I don't want to be any part of the " Brave New World" that you describe !
In any event, I can see incredible social unrest on the , very distant, horizon ; if you prove to be correct.
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Old 21st Aug 2016, 09:57
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I'll fly on a pilotless aircraft when, and only when, the Systems can pass the 'Hudson' test. Sudden loss of all power, huge metro area below: interesting bit of programming!

Ah, but by then our autopilots will have every crash, every incident, every technical anomaly, stored to call upon - in less than a second.

Most of the current drones are remotely piloted rather than "pilotless". It's worth noting that they have a much worse crash rate than any manned type.
While on my walks on Walton's Naze, I came across a display showing a radio controlled rocket being tested during the war. There was it seems, a spinning pit.

The radio valves/tubes were spun up in a centrifuge and those that survived were used in the trials. Not many survived the launch.

N.B. I worked with one of the electronics guys in the 50's and despite telling me numerous tales about that era, he never once mentioned that research. I can only guess he was still under orders to keep quiet about it.

Oh, and he made an electric car which was licensed to be tested on the roads.
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Old 21st Aug 2016, 09:59
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Originally Posted by kcockayne
Keith Williams
What makes you think that in your scenario the State is going to provide for all our needs. True, it does so for some selfish, anti -social spongers ( & some unfortunate individuals) at the moment; but, it will never be able to meet all our needs - for everyone. In any case, what is the attraction of such a lifestyle. Do you really believe that we will be cosseted from the cradle to the grave ?
I have to question the point of taking everything challenging & enjoyable out of life (by way of computers taking over) & replacing those joys (& reasons for living ) by making us one homogenous group of robots all doing the same thing ie. nothing meaningful; & totally reliant on what "Big Brother" decides is good for us.
I have no great understanding of the science involved in your technical scenario - but I don't want to be any part of the " Brave New World" that you describe !
In any event, I can see incredible social unrest on the , very distant, horizon ; if you prove to be correct.

Those very words could have been written by those facing the loss of their jobs in the "satanic mills"

Those arguments have been put forward before and found wanting.

With the benefit of hindsight, would you go back to those pre-industrial times?
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Old 21st Aug 2016, 10:27
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I'm with kcockayne.
T've seen this 'computers and technology will solve everything' malarky at close quarters, there are some crazy ideas out there.
You have to provide folks with gainful employment, otherwise they can't afford to be tourists and travel on these marvellous 'it's the future folks' pilotless aircraft.
Doubtless one day, they will sell seats on a pilotless airliner, but they won't sell one to me.
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Old 21st Aug 2016, 10:28
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Originally Posted by Tourist
Those very words could have been written by those facing the loss of their jobs in the "satanic mills"

Those arguments have been put forward before and found wanting.

With the benefit of hindsight, would you go back to those pre-industrial times?
I take your point, & there is much truth in what you say. It was a positive step to move on from the "Satanic Mills" etc. , but , we can go too far. Conditions today are very far from "the mills". The total population is far better off than in those times. Pilots on the flight deck are not the equivalent of children going up chimneys. We can use technology for the real benefits that it brings; but taking away the availability of the many enjoyable professions that are available is not, in my view, a beneficial development. And also begs the question, "why ?" The point still remains; how are we enriched by "machines taking over" ; & , how are we going to provide for ourselves when there are no jobs & no income available because of this ?
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Old 21st Aug 2016, 10:31
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The reality is that it will definitely come, but the technology is nowhere near that required for the number of aircraft in the skies.

Sure, many airliners can do an autoland today and have been able to do so, but imagine having LVPs in Heathrow 365 days a year to ensure safe operations. You wouldn't need 3, more like 6 runways.

The operational envelope would definitely have to reduce drastically to facilitate fully automatic flight. Just look at your aircraft's limitations for autoland. Only 20 kts crosswind, max. 3.15 approach angle, etc. Sure, you could run a Frankfurt to Heathrow flight in a summer without pilots even now with slight modifications (taxi and takeoff mode), but who will get the punters to their summer holiday destination which has an letdown VOR approach to a narrow runway less than 2000m long, preferrably with some CBs and crosswind?
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Old 21st Aug 2016, 11:47
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Flyingstone

You are making the assumption that an autonomous airliner would use 1950s tech autoland.

Why on earth would a future aircraft even consider such archaic tech as ILS/MLS/VOR/NDB? We only use it today because it is certified despite the fact that VOR and NDB approaches have awful safety statistics.

There are 1000's of better options if you are already making the jump to entirely new certifications.
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