EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo
Join Date: May 2011
Location: UK
Age: 61
Posts: 48
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Yes, brilliant. So now you not only carry the weight of the dye (it not being fuel it'll just add to the fuel weight), you carry much more of it (since as you need to have enough to still be effective when the tanks are largely empty you'll have far more than needed when they're full), and to top it all off you burn your expensive dye during every flight. This is all assuming the dye would be effective anyway, and wouldn't screw up the engines, of course.
Chronus:
You cannot base a logical conclusion on "negative evidence".
Despite the best efforts of the fantasists who appear on Pprune after every incident, there is nothing that can yet be deduced from ACARS, the last minute of the flight path or the absence of communication except that the aircraft and/or crew had something happen to it and it went in the water.
Furthermore, the truth, if it is ever discovered, may be quite a bit stranger than the uninformed speculation here.
Furthermore again, the question of positively locating every commercial jet while in flight is not trivial, neither is finding a wreck on land or water.
There are no quick easy cheap solutions despite what some may think.
Surely the authorities must by now have more information . The question is if they do. then why are they keeping it under wraps. It follows that entertaining such thought will inevitably lead to even more speculation of all manner of skullduggery and mischief.
Despite the best efforts of the fantasists who appear on Pprune after every incident, there is nothing that can yet be deduced from ACARS, the last minute of the flight path or the absence of communication except that the aircraft and/or crew had something happen to it and it went in the water.
Furthermore, the truth, if it is ever discovered, may be quite a bit stranger than the uninformed speculation here.
Furthermore again, the question of positively locating every commercial jet while in flight is not trivial, neither is finding a wreck on land or water.
There are no quick easy cheap solutions despite what some may think.
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: PA
Age: 59
Posts: 30
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
My mistake. Not data storage, but data transmission. If every FDR/CVR equipped a/c and its operator was required to have the equipment fitted at manufacture then searching for tiny black boxes might be un-necessary as all the data would already be in the Ops room.
Join Date: Dec 2006
Location: Florida and wherever my laptop is
Posts: 1,350
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
If I was designing it then I would make the ELT casing of expanded polystyrene or similar it floats without anything active required. Passive is better than active in these types of equipment.
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Maine USA
Age: 82
Posts: 199
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Regarding the dye suggestion, the first thing is to find out how much dye would be needed to make a splotch visible from orbit and go from there. I do like oldoberon's idea of putting different colors at different extremities of the aircraft, for the reasons he gives.
Join Date: Jan 2009
Location: Earth
Posts: 74
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
With the A320 being in Service for almost 30years and more than 7000 of them produced and >6500 of them still flying and >150Million Flight Hours you find the huge bug in the Design that only by pure luck did not down them by the hundreds, previously????
Seriously....
Everytime you think it can't get any crazier...
Seriously....
Everytime you think it can't get any crazier...
Or consider Concorde had a perfect record until one accident in 2000, and suddenly design changes were required after a bad day.
No doubt the A320 series has proven to be a safe aircraft. But lack of accidents does not mean there are no underlying issues, and if any arise in the future they would need to be addressed.
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: New Zealand
Posts: 4
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Dye the fuel
In the 60's the JP4 (1mil US gallons a time) we delivered to the Antarctic was dyed bright pink so that it could be seen clearly if it leaked from any pipeline (sometimes up to 7km long) by a helo designated to check-fly the line. Worked well against the white ice/snow. Probably not as effective in the open ocean.
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: fairly close to the colonial capitol
Age: 55
Posts: 1,693
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The issue is indeed bandwidth and on SATCOM systems, that equates to cost.
For the most part, the current DFDR and CVR methods work fine in the overwhelming majority of crashes and incidents. Perhaps one way forward would be adding a fare tax that would support the use of SATCOM reporting for long over water flights.
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: fairly close to the colonial capitol
Age: 55
Posts: 1,693
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
[quote]
SATCOM ACARS is getting close to this idea and exists. Perhaps, as suggested in my previous post, a tax on flights over water might support expanded mandatory reporting systems.
If every FDR/CVR equipped a/c and its operator was required to have the equipment fitted at manufacture then searching for tiny black boxes might be un-necessary as all the data would already be in the Ops room. If operators couldn't do it then a Google type aviation data collection company could do so. I agree, this 'only on board' data retention method is archaic and expensive when required.
Join Date: Jun 2000
Location: last time I looked I was still here.
Posts: 4,507
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
RYR 350-500a/c. EZ 280-400a/c. Only 2 operators with plans for nearly 1000 a/c and none have Satcom/Acars systems because it is not mandatory. No doubt there are other similar operators worldwide who choose not to fit that equipment. That relates to 1000's of a/c, many flying in, around, over remote areas. If the basic equipment was fitted as standard and mandatory at manufacture what would it add to the cost? Peanuts I would suggest. Less than 1c per pax ticket over the lifetime of the a/c. If there was a satellite link to home base of all FDR/CVR data on a 2 hour rewrite disk then answers to WTF happened might start earlier. I'm sure they would still search for the ac/ and recover what they could of it and the pax, but the delay in finding answers would be less. Black boxes seem so low tech as the ONLY universal method. The techies will know more.
Just dye the fuel.
But the sceptic in me says it won't happen
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Yokel country
Age: 70
Posts: 3
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Just dye the fuel. Make some lovely con-trails too - And some discount flights for en-route sign-writing excursions.
Psychophysiological entity
Aircraft to aircraft exchange of data packages has always seemed logical to me. There is a limit on range when using VHF, even from cruise altitudes, and also, a fair time to post the data since the carrier frequency is so low, but all so often there are a lot of aircraft to do an exchange with. The time it has to be stored could also be sent.
Surely better than even occasional seabed searches.
Surely better than even occasional seabed searches.
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: wales
Age: 81
Posts: 316
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Adding dye bags, certification would only apply to current fleets then it would come fitted on new supplied frames.
Adding dye to fuel would need tests if not certification to every engine type, fuel tank & internal wiring, pipework and joint seals etc and as already pointed out quantity will diminish during flight, so how effective would be towards the end of a flight.
You are constantly using and renewing it, so cost are increased by mileage, may even be environmental issues.
KISS, passive systems less agro
Adding dye to fuel would need tests if not certification to every engine type, fuel tank & internal wiring, pipework and joint seals etc and as already pointed out quantity will diminish during flight, so how effective would be towards the end of a flight.
You are constantly using and renewing it, so cost are increased by mileage, may even be environmental issues.
KISS, passive systems less agro
Re "mystery" reports on MH370...
It has taken aviation a long time to develop present standards, procedures, formats and fact-checking to which the investigative process and final report must adhere.
While there are clear signs that we are rapidly leaving the age of rationality and enlightenment values, there are some human activities which remain within rationality's purview; - the investigative process is one.
The "mystery" document reads like all other conspiracy-theory publications. It survives on curiosity and pure volume of text and pictures, trying to be what it can never possibly be: the final report.
Sunfish, re the MSR804 ACARS tea-leaves, fully concur with your views. I recall the sometimes-wandering, sometimes quasi-prescient discussions of the AF447 ACARS messages which, until the 3rd Interim Report remained a logical mystery. It was a long time before even just the timing of the messages was understood and that such did not necessarily indicate which occurred first. When all was revealed, it was an interesting exercise to compare the various theories put forth with the actuality after the recorders had been read.
It is not the first time that reference here to various aspects of the remarkable series of threads discussing the loss of AF447 has been made, and with good reason I think.
It has taken aviation a long time to develop present standards, procedures, formats and fact-checking to which the investigative process and final report must adhere.
While there are clear signs that we are rapidly leaving the age of rationality and enlightenment values, there are some human activities which remain within rationality's purview; - the investigative process is one.
The "mystery" document reads like all other conspiracy-theory publications. It survives on curiosity and pure volume of text and pictures, trying to be what it can never possibly be: the final report.
Sunfish, re the MSR804 ACARS tea-leaves, fully concur with your views. I recall the sometimes-wandering, sometimes quasi-prescient discussions of the AF447 ACARS messages which, until the 3rd Interim Report remained a logical mystery. It was a long time before even just the timing of the messages was understood and that such did not necessarily indicate which occurred first. When all was revealed, it was an interesting exercise to compare the various theories put forth with the actuality after the recorders had been read.
It is not the first time that reference here to various aspects of the remarkable series of threads discussing the loss of AF447 has been made, and with good reason I think.
Last edited by PJ2; 3rd Jun 2016 at 13:59.
PJ2...
As always, a well written and very well thought out post.
As you suggest, some of the (many) lessons learned from AF447 were retrospective with respect to comparing the theories investigators had, versus what actually happened, and then delving into the resulting question: Can we (meaning investigators) use what we learned from AF447 in any valid way in analysing the known events of other so far "unsolved" accidents / disappearances; either to reinforce or to negate or weaken some aspects of a particular theory or postulation (ACARS messages being just one such source of information, albeit a potentially very valuable one).
Thanks also for your segue into logic and investigative procedures by referencing current events and the shadowy descending path so frighteningly evident in world affairs...
As always, a well written and very well thought out post.
As you suggest, some of the (many) lessons learned from AF447 were retrospective with respect to comparing the theories investigators had, versus what actually happened, and then delving into the resulting question: Can we (meaning investigators) use what we learned from AF447 in any valid way in analysing the known events of other so far "unsolved" accidents / disappearances; either to reinforce or to negate or weaken some aspects of a particular theory or postulation (ACARS messages being just one such source of information, albeit a potentially very valuable one).
Thanks also for your segue into logic and investigative procedures by referencing current events and the shadowy descending path so frighteningly evident in world affairs...
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: Surrey
Posts: 1,217
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The quest for better 'fast find' options
A number of posts are suggesting better ways to recover FDR/CVR data or find the crash site. The prime motivations seem to be 1 - reduce cost of search, 2 - improve speed of accident analysis, 3 - provide quick information for headlines and threads ;-).
It is worth considering that in many (probably the majority) of cases, physical examination of the wreckage is necessary to get to actionable corrective actions. That is, the data either says 'this is the pattern of failure, flight path, and crew commentary' (the what); or the data just stops (tells very little). The why, unless it is human motivated, normally needs an analysis of actual components of the wreck. Additionally, there normally is a very strong desire to recover as many bodies as possible to provide proper closure and respect. As such, regardless of how fast the initial location is identified, there is inevitably an extensive effort with a number of ships and expensive recovery equipment to recover the wreck and human remains. I am not an expert, but I would guess that in every case (other than MH370) the cost of locating the wreck is dwarfed by the cost of recovering the wreck. As such, regardless of the technology for locating or transmitting the FDR/CVR data, the main cost of recovery will not be avoided, so the economic balance is going to be against anything expensive.
It appears in this case that, as a matter of luck not design, an ELT did get off a transmission that localised the crash site, that surface debris was found pretty quickly (maybe one day later than a large dye marker) and it appears that the ULB has been localised within 12 hours of the correct gear arriving on station. Additionally, the aircraft was transmitting its location at GPS accuracy to ground stations every second until very likely the power was shut down, so no matter what extra technology was added, it is not likely the undersea location was going to be known to a significantly higher level of accuracy.
Speculating on the little information we have, I would bet the FDR is going to show a cascading set of faults that are consistent with an electrical fire/short circuit 'somewhere', and then the power being shut down. The CVR is likely to indicate the pilots thought there was a fire and took corrective action, and if it remained powered, which I suspect not, then that they lost control in a very difficult set of circumstances. ... But crucially NOT A CLUE as to what actually failed and why; and therefore, no indication of the corrective actions necessary. However, after recovering the wreckage, analysing the damage and context, the investigators, in due course, will provide a pretty clear view of what failed, why, and some recommended corrective actions.
Investing say $4,000 M ($100k per commercial aircraft - not a lot for any change) fitting slicker locator technology to save a thankfully rare and normally small incremental cost of finding the general crash site (even in the extreme MH370 case the cost appears to be budgeted for $130 M) and saving the initial two weeks of searching, in a process that normally takes over a year to reach its conclusions, seems a poor choice.
It is worth considering that in many (probably the majority) of cases, physical examination of the wreckage is necessary to get to actionable corrective actions. That is, the data either says 'this is the pattern of failure, flight path, and crew commentary' (the what); or the data just stops (tells very little). The why, unless it is human motivated, normally needs an analysis of actual components of the wreck. Additionally, there normally is a very strong desire to recover as many bodies as possible to provide proper closure and respect. As such, regardless of how fast the initial location is identified, there is inevitably an extensive effort with a number of ships and expensive recovery equipment to recover the wreck and human remains. I am not an expert, but I would guess that in every case (other than MH370) the cost of locating the wreck is dwarfed by the cost of recovering the wreck. As such, regardless of the technology for locating or transmitting the FDR/CVR data, the main cost of recovery will not be avoided, so the economic balance is going to be against anything expensive.
It appears in this case that, as a matter of luck not design, an ELT did get off a transmission that localised the crash site, that surface debris was found pretty quickly (maybe one day later than a large dye marker) and it appears that the ULB has been localised within 12 hours of the correct gear arriving on station. Additionally, the aircraft was transmitting its location at GPS accuracy to ground stations every second until very likely the power was shut down, so no matter what extra technology was added, it is not likely the undersea location was going to be known to a significantly higher level of accuracy.
Speculating on the little information we have, I would bet the FDR is going to show a cascading set of faults that are consistent with an electrical fire/short circuit 'somewhere', and then the power being shut down. The CVR is likely to indicate the pilots thought there was a fire and took corrective action, and if it remained powered, which I suspect not, then that they lost control in a very difficult set of circumstances. ... But crucially NOT A CLUE as to what actually failed and why; and therefore, no indication of the corrective actions necessary. However, after recovering the wreckage, analysing the damage and context, the investigators, in due course, will provide a pretty clear view of what failed, why, and some recommended corrective actions.
Investing say $4,000 M ($100k per commercial aircraft - not a lot for any change) fitting slicker locator technology to save a thankfully rare and normally small incremental cost of finding the general crash site (even in the extreme MH370 case the cost appears to be budgeted for $130 M) and saving the initial two weeks of searching, in a process that normally takes over a year to reach its conclusions, seems a poor choice.
Where to put the money? Not in Things, but in People!
Investing say $4,000 M ($100k per commercial aircraft - not a lot for any change) fitting slicker locator technology to save a thankfully rare and normally small incremental cost of finding the general crash site (even in the extreme MH370 case the cost appears to be budgeted for $130 M) and saving the initial two weeks of searching, in a process that normally takes over a year to reach its conclusions, seems a poor choice.
I apologize if this is thread drift, but the flying proficiency bit strikes me, as I read through PJ2's ref to AF 447, as the critical area of prevention of most accidents. How and whether it applies to this case -- if at all -- will be shown after the investigators dig into any recovered info.
Last edited by Lonewolf_50; 3rd Jun 2016 at 15:47. Reason: link
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Maine USA
Age: 82
Posts: 199
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Adding dye bags, certification would only apply to current fleets then it would come fitted on new supplied frames.
Adding dye to fuel would need tests if not certification to every engine type, fuel tank & internal wiring, pipework and joint seals etc and as already pointed out quantity will diminish during flight, so how effective would be towards the end of a flight.
You are constantly using and renewing it, so cost are increased by mileage, may even be environmental issues.
KISS, passive systems less agro
Adding dye to fuel would need tests if not certification to every engine type, fuel tank & internal wiring, pipework and joint seals etc and as already pointed out quantity will diminish during flight, so how effective would be towards the end of a flight.
You are constantly using and renewing it, so cost are increased by mileage, may even be environmental issues.
KISS, passive systems less agro
"Fluorescein" would appear to be the dye of choice: a powder, widely available, medically safe and already used as a sea stain. Bags of that could be thrown into cargo holds (or elsewhere) tomorrow. The sort of crashes we've been discussing have disintegrative impacts, so dispersal from inside the airframe shouldn't be a problem.
The extra weight and bulk of the dye pack shouldn't matter since most airline flights are at less than MGTOW, and bags stow anywhere.