EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo
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Why do airline professionals, whose careers have been most negatively affected by terrorism, strive so hard to accept any cause over even the mere suggestion of foul play? It doesn't compute.
Heating short circuits and arcing are common on many aircraft types. It does not however bring jets down.
Drinks are also spilt all the time and we do not see disasters each week.
wheelsright
A few points
It's early yet.
At this point, I'd suggest betting for getting the CVR and FDR rather than against. It's early yet. The search effort is still underway.
AF 447 was in more than 12,000 feet of water. Once the site was found (after what, 2 years?) a great deal of information was gleaned from what the were able to obtain and examine with a variety of technology. A lot depends upon how well the investigation is run, and how much assistance and advice from experts in recent crashes over water the Egyptians will accept. (Your point about the difficulties in being able to isolate wiring issues once the aircraft is in parts and has been underwater for a while is understood).
I recall the volumes of criticism BEA received over the AF 447 accident. Well, don't you wish they were running this one?
A few points
Unless explosives can be confirmed from debris analysis (and perhaps even if it is), it leaves the distinct possibility that there is a potential weak spot in the related wiring harnesses or protection thereof.
If the FDR and CVR are recovered, they may not provide sufficient information to resolve precisely what that weakness is, or how the chain of events may have started.
Locating the wiring and equipment involved, and raising from 10k may be impossible. This will leave the investigators having to try to recreate the circumstances...
I recall the volumes of criticism BEA received over the AF 447 accident. Well, don't you wish they were running this one?
Why do airline professionals, whose careers have been most negatively affected by terrorism, strive so hard to accept any cause over even the mere suggestion of foul play? It doesn't compute.
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Massive deny of everything: all informations are wrong
That the only link about MS804 provided by Egyptair (on Fr page).
And their link for "plus d'informations" will simply loop into the same communiqué.
http://www.egyptair.com/fr/about-egy...ris-cairo.aspx
And their link for "plus d'informations" will simply loop into the same communiqué.
http://www.egyptair.com/fr/about-egy...ris-cairo.aspx
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Wheelsright
I did say that the drink spill incident was on a very early aircraft that had Kapton wiring.
Kapton wire was one of the great cock ups of the industry as it had some very bad habits if there was a wiring fault, following a number of incidents the industry at considerable cost removed all the Kapton wire from service.
The last place I saw Kapton wire fitted was in a B738NG IFE system in about 2000. Even then the IFE was locked out until the whole IFE loom assembly was removed and replaced with something a lot better.
Due to the date of construction I am sure that you would not find any Kapton wire on this ( or any other ) Airbus manufactured after about 1995 and any fitted to earlier aircraft should have been removed by now.
Experience tells me that the aircraft had big electrical issues and the Airbus electrical fire and smoke removal non normal check lists go around in circles so it is not an easy situation to contain but the reason that the problems started is only going to become clear when the accident investigators have finished their work.
Kapton wire was one of the great cock ups of the industry as it had some very bad habits if there was a wiring fault, following a number of incidents the industry at considerable cost removed all the Kapton wire from service.
The last place I saw Kapton wire fitted was in a B738NG IFE system in about 2000. Even then the IFE was locked out until the whole IFE loom assembly was removed and replaced with something a lot better.
Due to the date of construction I am sure that you would not find any Kapton wire on this ( or any other ) Airbus manufactured after about 1995 and any fitted to earlier aircraft should have been removed by now.
Experience tells me that the aircraft had big electrical issues and the Airbus electrical fire and smoke removal non normal check lists go around in circles so it is not an easy situation to contain but the reason that the problems started is only going to become clear when the accident investigators have finished their work.
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Reuters:
"Egypt's head of forensics denied reports that an initial examination of human remains belonging to victims aboard the EgyptAir jet that crashed in the Mediterranean pointed toward an explosion, state news agency MENA said on Tuesday.
Everything published about this matter is completely false, and mere assumptions that did not come from the Forensics Authority"
Huge relief
"Egypt's head of forensics denied reports that an initial examination of human remains belonging to victims aboard the EgyptAir jet that crashed in the Mediterranean pointed toward an explosion, state news agency MENA said on Tuesday.
Everything published about this matter is completely false, and mere assumptions that did not come from the Forensics Authority"
Huge relief
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Lonewolf: "I recall the volumes of criticism BEA received over the AF 447 accident. Well, don't you wish they were running this one?"
Does anyone with knowledge of ICAO / UN protocols know how professional a country's investigators have to be before they're allowed to take the lead? It's accepted that most African countries don't have the capability and would ask another state to help. In other words how to remove that responsibility from a state that is sure to find only what suits them (MSR990 ....)
Does anyone with knowledge of ICAO / UN protocols know how professional a country's investigators have to be before they're allowed to take the lead? It's accepted that most African countries don't have the capability and would ask another state to help. In other words how to remove that responsibility from a state that is sure to find only what suits them (MSR990 ....)
"Allowed" by whom?
It's their aeroplane and they are the ICAO "National Competent Body" responsible for overseeing its airworthiness and operation.
Unless you want to lodge an appeal to one of the Grand Lizard Overlords I'm not sure anyone is in any position to be an uber-authority that could stop them.
PDR
It's their aeroplane and they are the ICAO "National Competent Body" responsible for overseeing its airworthiness and operation.
Unless you want to lodge an appeal to one of the Grand Lizard Overlords I'm not sure anyone is in any position to be an uber-authority that could stop them.
PDR
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Indeed, "It was terrorism" is a nice, open-and-shut case. Nobody above a certain pay grade gets blamed and nothing gets improved. Even better, such claims can motivate other kinds of political and economic decisions. It's very convenient.
It's right up there with those other news commonplaces, like "Airplanes don't just fall out of the sky." Yeah, they do, but very, very rarely. You're looking at an event that "just doesn't happen." So what, among all these unlikely scenarios is the most likely?
Making it worse is the ratio of media exposure to data available. It's always been bad, but since CNN discovered that MH370 doubled their ratings, "aviation crash mysteries" command worldwide attention. The lack of data is actually an advantage, since television news bits don't like to go over 30 seconds these days. The enormous pressure means that people who have even less knowledge than many of those posting here suddenly find themselves in a position of power with respect to news outlets. And we get ignorant "leaks" about bombs and right turns. At least the idiot who said it had to be an explosive was honest about his grounds for thinking that.
So all we have at the moment is a field of wreckage and a series of ACARS messages, transmitted over a couple minutes. Now, those messages could mean anything. What they do say is "electrical fault, smoke in the lavatory, smoke in the avionics bay." And, if you were not to posit anything else but those messages, you'd expect the people up front to start shedding non-necessary electrical systems.
As we've seen, an Airbus, at night, in Alternate Law is already a challenge for some pilots. The rest is a balance between how bad the situation was and how badly it was handled, and we cannot know that at the moment.
As for causes of the message: iPad batteries and bombs are at the bottom of the list, just below spilling the cologne on the O2 supply.
Oh, and the sideshow about alcohol? Yes, alcohol is an accelerant, but a pretty poor one, even at 95%. Sure, it's burned teenagers' faces off before, but at normal concentrations of oxygen, it just doesn't generate enough heat by itself to be useful for starting fires.
It's right up there with those other news commonplaces, like "Airplanes don't just fall out of the sky." Yeah, they do, but very, very rarely. You're looking at an event that "just doesn't happen." So what, among all these unlikely scenarios is the most likely?
Making it worse is the ratio of media exposure to data available. It's always been bad, but since CNN discovered that MH370 doubled their ratings, "aviation crash mysteries" command worldwide attention. The lack of data is actually an advantage, since television news bits don't like to go over 30 seconds these days. The enormous pressure means that people who have even less knowledge than many of those posting here suddenly find themselves in a position of power with respect to news outlets. And we get ignorant "leaks" about bombs and right turns. At least the idiot who said it had to be an explosive was honest about his grounds for thinking that.
So all we have at the moment is a field of wreckage and a series of ACARS messages, transmitted over a couple minutes. Now, those messages could mean anything. What they do say is "electrical fault, smoke in the lavatory, smoke in the avionics bay." And, if you were not to posit anything else but those messages, you'd expect the people up front to start shedding non-necessary electrical systems.
As we've seen, an Airbus, at night, in Alternate Law is already a challenge for some pilots. The rest is a balance between how bad the situation was and how badly it was handled, and we cannot know that at the moment.
As for causes of the message: iPad batteries and bombs are at the bottom of the list, just below spilling the cologne on the O2 supply.
Oh, and the sideshow about alcohol? Yes, alcohol is an accelerant, but a pretty poor one, even at 95%. Sure, it's burned teenagers' faces off before, but at normal concentrations of oxygen, it just doesn't generate enough heat by itself to be useful for starting fires.
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Some notes Regarding ACARS messages...
00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT
Source Document http://www.gauci.info/gone2fly/A320%...tes%202004.pdf
An extraction fan draws air from the cabin through the lavatories and
galleys and exhausts it near the outflow valve. The extraction fan runs
continuously when electrical power is available.
My observation -> If there is smoke in the cabin, it will be drawn into the lavatories to the smoke detector. Smoke source not necessarily in the lavatory.
In Smoke Configuration the main bus bars are shedded. Same as
emergency electrical configuration except that the fuel pumps are
connected upstream of the GEN 1 line contactor. 75% of equipment is
shed, all that is remained is supplied from the CBs on the overhead panel.
• A smoke detector in the air extraction duct detects smoke in the avionics
compartment. If smoke is detected for more than 5 min it can be cleared
but remains latched. A dual FCU reset on ground can de-latch it.
• One smoke detector is in each lavatory. It sends signals to an SDCU
(Smoke Detection Control Unit) which in turn sends signals to the FWC and
CIDS.
Flight Controls
• Flight control surfaces are electrically controlled and hydraulically activated.
• The stabilizer and rudder can be mechanically controlled.
• There are seven Flight Control Computers:
o Two ELACs
Normal elevator and stabilizer control.
Aileron control.
o Three SECs
Spoiler control.
Standby elevator and stabilizer control.
o Two FACs
Electrical rudder control.
• Also, there are two FCDC (Flight Control Data Concentrators) which
acquire data from the ELACs and the SECs and send it to the CFDS and
EIS
SEC 3 – Controls Spoiler 2.
If a SEC fails, its spoilers are retracted.
Speedbrake
• The Speedbrake is made up of spoilers 2, 3 and 4.
• Extension is inhibited if:
o SEC 1 and SEC 3 have faults.
Flight Control - Mechanical Backup
• Mechanical backup happens in the case of a complete loss of electrical
power.
• Pitch is controlled manually using the THS. (Trimmable Horizontal Stabilizer)
• Lateral control is through the rudders.
00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT
Source Document http://www.gauci.info/gone2fly/A320%...tes%202004.pdf
An extraction fan draws air from the cabin through the lavatories and
galleys and exhausts it near the outflow valve. The extraction fan runs
continuously when electrical power is available.
My observation -> If there is smoke in the cabin, it will be drawn into the lavatories to the smoke detector. Smoke source not necessarily in the lavatory.
In Smoke Configuration the main bus bars are shedded. Same as
emergency electrical configuration except that the fuel pumps are
connected upstream of the GEN 1 line contactor. 75% of equipment is
shed, all that is remained is supplied from the CBs on the overhead panel.
• A smoke detector in the air extraction duct detects smoke in the avionics
compartment. If smoke is detected for more than 5 min it can be cleared
but remains latched. A dual FCU reset on ground can de-latch it.
• One smoke detector is in each lavatory. It sends signals to an SDCU
(Smoke Detection Control Unit) which in turn sends signals to the FWC and
CIDS.
Flight Controls
• Flight control surfaces are electrically controlled and hydraulically activated.
• The stabilizer and rudder can be mechanically controlled.
• There are seven Flight Control Computers:
o Two ELACs
Normal elevator and stabilizer control.
Aileron control.
o Three SECs
Spoiler control.
Standby elevator and stabilizer control.
o Two FACs
Electrical rudder control.
• Also, there are two FCDC (Flight Control Data Concentrators) which
acquire data from the ELACs and the SECs and send it to the CFDS and
EIS
SEC 3 – Controls Spoiler 2.
If a SEC fails, its spoilers are retracted.
Speedbrake
• The Speedbrake is made up of spoilers 2, 3 and 4.
• Extension is inhibited if:
o SEC 1 and SEC 3 have faults.
Flight Control - Mechanical Backup
• Mechanical backup happens in the case of a complete loss of electrical
power.
• Pitch is controlled manually using the THS. (Trimmable Horizontal Stabilizer)
• Lateral control is through the rudders.
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Who says ICAO has any authority. It just writes rules(non binding guidelines) member countries agreed upon, and hope same countries follow those rules. Nothing it can do if some country ignores those.
Malaysia didn't even had CAA organization structure, team to investigate accidents and even required templates to document MH370. Yet it is the competitive authority per Annex.13.
Malaysia didn't even had CAA organization structure, team to investigate accidents and even required templates to document MH370. Yet it is the competitive authority per Annex.13.
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A and C
The reference to the drinks spill is far-fetched and I wasn't promoting it as being likely as I am sure you were not.
This is probable, but without further evidence the cause could still be terrorism or a defect. The only thing that is looking unlikely is pilot error.
There is no way to rule out a bomb causing damage to the electrical system or even explosive decompression. The time frame for the ACARS messages, abrupt end to the messages, and lack of voice communication all suggest that things went wrong very quickly.
Somebody with an in depth knowledge of the electrical system may be able to shed further light. For instance, a localized electrical fault (even with fire) is unlikely to take out multiple systems in a very short space of time unless they were physically or electrically close. That would suggest a wider more dramatic issue at play.
Prior to the loss of communication the pilots presumably were not aware of a serious problem.
The reference to the drinks spill is far-fetched and I wasn't promoting it as being likely as I am sure you were not.
Experience tells me that the aircraft had big electrical issues
There is no way to rule out a bomb causing damage to the electrical system or even explosive decompression. The time frame for the ACARS messages, abrupt end to the messages, and lack of voice communication all suggest that things went wrong very quickly.
Somebody with an in depth knowledge of the electrical system may be able to shed further light. For instance, a localized electrical fault (even with fire) is unlikely to take out multiple systems in a very short space of time unless they were physically or electrically close. That would suggest a wider more dramatic issue at play.
Prior to the loss of communication the pilots presumably were not aware of a serious problem.
Last edited by wheelsright; 24th May 2016 at 13:23. Reason: typo
Administrator
By examining the VHF ACARS coverage on page 20 of this ACARS service summary and this slightly older estimate, I see four stations with some possibility of being send/receive stations as the aircraft headed (roughly) over Karpathos and southeast toward CAI, at least as LOS is measured ... depending on where along the track the aircraft is. Signal strength is another matter once over the basin of the Levantine Sea/Eastern Med.
HER, RHO, PFO, ALY and (ultimately CAI).
Does Egyptair use Satcom and VHF ACARS on their A320's, or only VHF? (Recalling that MH 370 apparently didn't use all of the Satcom services that the aircraft could have been subscribed to ...)
HER, RHO, PFO, ALY and (ultimately CAI).
Does Egyptair use Satcom and VHF ACARS on their A320's, or only VHF? (Recalling that MH 370 apparently didn't use all of the Satcom services that the aircraft could have been subscribed to ...)
Last edited by T28B; 24th May 2016 at 16:07. Reason: Egyptair does not use sitcom services, and this is no laughing matter
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" There is no way to rule out a bomb causing damage to the electrical system or even explosive decompression. The time frame for the ACARS messages, abrupt end to the messages, and lack of voice communication all suggest that things went wrong very quickly.
Decompression via explosives or otherewise (open lor broken window ) as an initiator before going offline is NOT likely.
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Conso
To assume that ACARS must have transmitted loss of cabin pressure in a compromised situation is unwise. It is also unwise to assume that a bomb would immediately destroy all systems or for that matter properly explode or rupture the cabin.
These ACARS transmissions may only be a small subset of fault conditions prior to being completely disabled. However, the idea of a fire taking hold and disabling all communication and a number of other systems in 2 minutes, or so, is unrealistic.
To assume that ACARS must have transmitted loss of cabin pressure in a compromised situation is unwise. It is also unwise to assume that a bomb would immediately destroy all systems or for that matter properly explode or rupture the cabin.
These ACARS transmissions may only be a small subset of fault conditions prior to being completely disabled. However, the idea of a fire taking hold and disabling all communication and a number of other systems in 2 minutes, or so, is unrealistic.
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Images of apparently sizeable debris fields, by US Navy P3 Orion based at Naval Air Station Sigonella, Sicily, Italy.
U.S. Navy P-3 Orion Assists in Search for Egyptair Flight MS804 | U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa / U.S. 6th Fleet
"UPDATE 6
May 23, 2016 at 14:30 UTC
Yesterday, (May 22), U.S. Navy P-3s continued to support the search effort with two missions (6th and 7th) from NAS Sigonella. The first flight of the day (6th overall) discovered another debris field that was a radius of three nautical miles in size. Once reported to the Egyptian on scene commander, the aircraft was sent elsewhere to search for additional debris fields. The Egyptians deployed small vessels to retrieve debris in the field they discovered. From post mission reporting and the plotting of debris fields, two confirmed debris fields have been located by U.S. Navy aircraft supporting the effort."
U.S. Navy P-3 Orion Assists in Search for Egyptair Flight MS804 | U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa / U.S. 6th Fleet
"UPDATE 6
May 23, 2016 at 14:30 UTC
Yesterday, (May 22), U.S. Navy P-3s continued to support the search effort with two missions (6th and 7th) from NAS Sigonella. The first flight of the day (6th overall) discovered another debris field that was a radius of three nautical miles in size. Once reported to the Egyptian on scene commander, the aircraft was sent elsewhere to search for additional debris fields. The Egyptians deployed small vessels to retrieve debris in the field they discovered. From post mission reporting and the plotting of debris fields, two confirmed debris fields have been located by U.S. Navy aircraft supporting the effort."
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Conso
To assume that ACARS must have transmitted loss of cabin pressure in a compromised situation is unwise. It is also unwise to assume that a bomb would immediately destroy all systems or for that matter properly explode or rupture the cabin.
These ACARS transmissions may only be a small subset of fault conditions prior to being completely disabled. However, the idea of a fire taking hold and disabling all communication and a number of other systems in 2 minutes, or so, is unrealistic.
To assume that ACARS must have transmitted loss of cabin pressure in a compromised situation is unwise. It is also unwise to assume that a bomb would immediately destroy all systems or for that matter properly explode or rupture the cabin.
These ACARS transmissions may only be a small subset of fault conditions prior to being completely disabled. However, the idea of a fire taking hold and disabling all communication and a number of other systems in 2 minutes, or so, is unrealistic.
U.S. Navy P-3 Orion Assists in Search for Egyptair Flight MS804 | U.S. Naval Forces Europe-Africa / U.S. 6th Fleet
- The first flight of the day (6th overall) discovered another debris field that was a radius of three nautical miles in size.
- The Egyptians deployed small vessels to retrieve debris in the field they discovered.
- ... two confirmed debris fields have been located by U.S. Navy aircraft supporting the effort."
Without trying to steal mm43's thunder, the drift plotting team are doubtless working on where these debris fields drifted from. How many days of useful battery life do the FDR/CVR pingers have left? Using back of napkin ... 24.