EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo
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"It would be infantile and churlish to engage in any form of speculation about the cause(s) of this crash, until relevant evidence and information from FDR and CVR has been gathered and analysed in the coming days and weeks" said no media organisation, aviation pundit or Monday morning quarterback ever.............!!
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What I take away is the small number of alerts over a 3-minute period means a bomb was less likely to be at the origin of this disaster than an avionics bay fire-- that could have been an in-air mirror of the 777 MS incident at Cairo Airport.
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I haven't seen any timed data from the radar source anywhere. Only the manoeuvers were described, but it's way too vague at this point. No com reported is somewhat a clue about the situation of the crew by itself. One can imagine a fast pace of events taking place in a very short time.
1 - the last clean data item from FR24 is at 0:29:33
2 - Greek ATC say the lost primary radar contact at 00:30 (implied descending through 9 or 10 thousand feet).
There is no data other than the Greek defence Minister's statement that the aircraft made the manoeuvres attributed. The slick graphics are AFAIK all made up by the media outlets. The time frame between everything OK and claimed loss of radar contact is too short for ATC radar to have reliably detected the claimed heading changes. This would not be the first time a defence official attributed more information to the radar returns than appropriate (this happened both with the Brazil mid air collision and MH17).
I feel that particular comment is being given massively excessive weight and will likely prove to be a red herring.
The most likely scenario is everything progessed normally up to 0:26z and then by 0:29:33 there was fully developed catastrophe that resulted in the failure of all/most systems and the subsequent loss of the aircraft. Determine the sequence of events in leading to the catastrophe will need a few more days items to clarify.
One item, that is in the hands of the investigators, is the time stamped radar data. This will indicate if there really were 'controlled' turns or just an uncontrolled aircraft or fragments of aircraft tumbling down.
The claimed timeline would indicate a slightly negative g descent coupled with a 4-6 g set of turns sustained for about 30-50 seconds (for a net positive 3.5-6 g load). I would believe no sane A320 pilot would choose to initiate that kind of maneuver. However, it would be totally consistent with free falling debris.
Of course if the Greeks really lost radar contact at 0:35, then there would be plenty of time for pilot controlled maneuvers. But we don't have the data and will need to wait for it to be published.
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I know they may have been in a poor ATC communication area
was checking AIP Greece, lowest control limit (airway floor) for UN132 is 7000 FT.
Last edited by vmandr; 21st May 2016 at 19:08. Reason: added AIP info
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From the fault messages observed I would suspect a explosive device in the fwd galley area carts/cannisters. The explosion has breached the RHS of the aircraft causing the windshield heat controller, flight warning computer/air data fault, avionics smoke and in turn lav smoke faults. The explosion in that area also behind the flight deck circuit breaker panels 121VU etc ... very sad 😢
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How many watts is that window deicing system? If you were to look at cockpit items that could possibly cause a fire, a window heater would be near the top of the list. High current next to condensation and vibration is a really good way to cause a fire, as many boaters have discovered.
Contrary to popular belief, circuit breakers do not protect you from fires. They protect you from one condition that can cause a fire but they do nothing to save you from a loose connection that heats up and melts the insulation. If there was resistance in the heating circuit the window would not get to temperature and the thermostat would keep calling for more heat, and the loose connection would keep getting hotter. I'm sure it is not that simple or it would happen more often, but I suspect we are about to learn a lot more about window deicing systems.
The three messages related to the RH window are telling us something.
Contrary to popular belief, circuit breakers do not protect you from fires. They protect you from one condition that can cause a fire but they do nothing to save you from a loose connection that heats up and melts the insulation. If there was resistance in the heating circuit the window would not get to temperature and the thermostat would keep calling for more heat, and the loose connection would keep getting hotter. I'm sure it is not that simple or it would happen more often, but I suspect we are about to learn a lot more about window deicing systems.
The three messages related to the RH window are telling us something.
From the fault messages observed I would suspect a explosive device in the fwd galley area carts/cannisters. The explosion has breached the RHS of the aircraft causing the windshield heat controller, flight warning computer/air data fault, avionics smoke and in turn lav smoke faults. The explosion in that area also behind the flight deck circuit breaker panels 121VU etc ... very sad
Now, if you change your device to something incendiary... maybe?
- GY
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From the fault messages observed I would suspect a explosive device in the fwd galley area carts/cannisters. The explosion has breached the RHS of the aircraft causing the windshield heat controller, flight warning computer/air data fault, avionics smoke and in turn lav smoke faults. The explosion in that area also behind the flight deck circuit breaker panels 121VU etc ... very sad ��
Last edited by CONSO; 21st May 2016 at 19:43. Reason: typos
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@Takata
Wonder on basis of chklsts you provided whether, whatever the cause (small explosion not excluded), fltcrew as per prescribed drills did shed the AC BUS1 by shutting down GEN1, while the GEN2 driven electrical system was compromised, and may have hampered transfer to AC ESS FEED. May well explain the transponder going down too around 02:30, like everything electrical on board, including ability to communicate or to get transponder setting 7700 effectively through.
In addition, this is of course still to be confirmed, if I understood it well from the Greek defence ministers' report, the manoeuvres of MS804 (90° left, followed by 360° right, rapidly descending) took place between 02:27 and 02:29. Never mind the FR24 report that A/C maintained heading and altitude until 02:30, which is likely to be based on extrapolation.
Regards
In addition, this is of course still to be confirmed, if I understood it well from the Greek defence ministers' report, the manoeuvres of MS804 (90° left, followed by 360° right, rapidly descending) took place between 02:27 and 02:29. Never mind the FR24 report that A/C maintained heading and altitude until 02:30, which is likely to be based on extrapolation.
Regards
@ MM Flynn
"I don't believe there is anything other than
1 - the last clean data item from FR24 is at 0:29:33
2 - Greek ATC say the lost primary radar contact at 00:30 (implied descending through 9 or 10 thousand feet)."
I realize these time stamps may not be coordinated, but if I am reading this correctly.....they went from FL370 to 9 or 10,000 feet in 27 seconds?
1 - the last clean data item from FR24 is at 0:29:33
2 - Greek ATC say the lost primary radar contact at 00:30 (implied descending through 9 or 10 thousand feet)."
I realize these time stamps may not be coordinated, but if I am reading this correctly.....they went from FL370 to 9 or 10,000 feet in 27 seconds?
It's a rumor network
Lots of people here just want to ask questions and form opinions.
That's one of the purposes of this forum.
Agreed, we should wait for answers, however, they may never come with the Egyptians in charge of the investigation.
That's one of the purposes of this forum.
Agreed, we should wait for answers, however, they may never come with the Egyptians in charge of the investigation.
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Some aircraft initiate an emergency descent when certain events are sensed.
I don't know if this plane, or any of the newer Boeings or Buses are so equipped.
As an example, the Gulfstream 450-650 models automatically initiate an emergency descent to 15,000 and slow there to 250kts if a cabin depressurization occurs at altitude. It also changes heading by 90 degrees.
This happens provided the A/P and the auto-throttles are on.
I don't know if this plane, or any of the newer Boeings or Buses are so equipped.
As an example, the Gulfstream 450-650 models automatically initiate an emergency descent to 15,000 and slow there to 250kts if a cabin depressurization occurs at altitude. It also changes heading by 90 degrees.
This happens provided the A/P and the auto-throttles are on.
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Auto Descent
The Airbus family don't have a feature of commencing an automatic descent incase of a decompression. The 787 doesn't even have this feature. I couldn't speak for the A350 though.
Greek ATC radar
What I should like to know is when the Greek ATC lost MS804 from its secondary radar maybe a useful indication to the state of the aircraft.
Last edited by Rwy in Sight; 21st May 2016 at 20:48.
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When an aircraft dies.
The confounding elements and those that distinguish this particular loss, is the aircraft`s so far known behaviour in its dying throes. So far the link between its trajectories, both in the lateral and vertical planes and its electronic emissions, do not present any previously fitting or comparable pattern.
It will be sometime before any substantive evidence emerges which may assist in formulating any reasonable speculation as to the circumstance(s) which may have led to its demise.
The confounding elements and those that distinguish this particular loss, is the aircraft`s so far known behaviour in its dying throes. So far the link between its trajectories, both in the lateral and vertical planes and its electronic emissions, do not present any previously fitting or comparable pattern.
It will be sometime before any substantive evidence emerges which may assist in formulating any reasonable speculation as to the circumstance(s) which may have led to its demise.
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@Rwy In Sight
was covered by two MSSRs, Rhodes and Karpathos. According to the AIP Greece these
radars 'see' from ~7000 ( for KUMBI area I believe at least FL100 ) up.
when - aircraft/radar target reached that floor - was according to HCAA statement at 00:29:40 Z.
Interesting till now, they did not say, if they called immediately after aircraft departed assigned altitude or if the call was just for UIR handover and then they realized it was descending.
was covered by two MSSRs, Rhodes and Karpathos. According to the AIP Greece these
radars 'see' from ~7000 ( for KUMBI area I believe at least FL100 ) up.
when - aircraft/radar target reached that floor - was according to HCAA statement at 00:29:40 Z.
Interesting till now, they did not say, if they called immediately after aircraft departed assigned altitude or if the call was just for UIR handover and then they realized it was descending.
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The ACARS message are interesting, but the only thing that seems to fit is a 'fire' that then caused a sudden and catastrophic loss of power (so no more data) and then loss of control/integrity (resulting in the rapid descent - probably closer to a fall).
The descent timing based on the available statements appears to be close to what one would expect from a free fall, although the lack of clarity on the radar time makes this only a rough calculation.
Ps
The HCAA statement on the loss of 'radar signal' is ambiguous in that it probably meant the SSR return, but might have meant the primary return due to the descent going below the radar horizon. The various claims of turns and specific levels the aircraft descended through imply A - the SSR/ADSB data was being sent, B - there was some height finding radar (normally military) data, C - it is just noise that is not actually fact,
I think C is most probable, but that there is a time when the primary target disappeared, which is later than 00;29;40, but not clear if it is 20 seconds 1 minute or 3 minutes after this.
Last edited by mm_flynn; 21st May 2016 at 21:18.