EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by Pace

The media are all claiming this was terrorism a bomb. I am not convinced for a number of reasons firstly if the aircraft left Paris is would expose a very serious security hole at Paris which would have implications for thousands of aircraft operating out of there

You don't think it was a bomb because it if was, the repercussions would be enormous?

Isn't that slightly back-to-front logic?

[neilki]

Multi Media

Sadly the bad guys have proved themselves to be fairly sophisticated manipulators of the media. Why not bask in days of speculative media coverage then as things start to quiet down, attach a radical name to it. Double exposure. In addition, perhaps they're giving bad guys time to disappear.
The assumption that the Aircraft left Paris, so Paris must have been where a bomb boarded is pretty weak.

[Jagwar]

And given the way the current batch of terrorists operate it isn't difficult to understand how a small group of like minded airport security staff can coordinate the passage of explosives onto an aircraft at any major European airport , including CDG.
Additionally, there doesn't appear to be any kind of common sense profiling in operation due to various so called human rights acts.

[Vc10Tail]

Pilot flying flies and monitors communication whilst non flying pilot Assists in managing the abnormality or emergency.PF can always in 3 seconds say "Mayday mayday mayday Flt 804.Stby further..or PNF can activate the emergency transponder code..part of the procefure in an emergency descent...which if so should have been controllable unless there was fire in the rear and tailplane electrics affected to have lost control.
from 37000 ft its a long drop and if in the radio blind spot they couldnt alert anyone on radio but transonder would have alerted radar controllers.

The ANC (Av Nav Com) is just a guide fellas..not the grail@

Lets hear what the CVR and FDR have to say but too early to tule out technical failure. We are still in the recovery phase.Terrorism shouldnt even be factored until after forensics.Lets not Trump our way into "100% terrorism"...it is too brash.

[Rwy in Sight]

neilki,

Re bomb be placed in Paris:
why anyone would let a bomb to use it a sector or two down the line when it can be spotted or the aircraft can go tech.

[MartinM]

The loss of one Autoflight FCU 2, neither the loss of SEC3 would have incapacitated the aircraft from flying. Automatically the system would switch to another FCU channel.

We got no warning of alternate law, neither the loss of protection, neither the loss of any AFS module. Nor a warning of cabin VS.

The ACARS don't appear to be real, to me

[oleostrut]

The ACARS may or may not be accurate.
But, bear in mind, the 1st class galley is on the right, just aft of the cockpit bulkhead. High wattage circuits run to it from below, and wire bundles for it and other circuits run under the floor, up the bulkhead and up the outer fuselage wall.

Both the lavs and especially the galleys are very high maintenance areas, subject to heavy use and wear.

[Seggy]

Out of curiosity, does Egypt Air have an alternate procedure if they get an AVIONICS SMOKE ECAM?

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by MartinM

The loss of one Autoflight FCU 2, neither the loss of SEC3 would have incapacitated the aircraft from flying.

Granted. With the exception of the AVIONICS SMOKE warning, all of the other ACARS messages, if not daily occurrences, are certainly observable from time to time and don't typically result in the subject aircraft falling out of the sky.

The ACARS don't appear to be real, to me

That doesn't follow. The fault codes quoted match the error messages - they could be genuine.

[GSeries_jetcrew]

Originally Posted by ILS27LEFT

We all probably agree that this was a very sudden event however we cannot exclude that the trigger was an external object going straight into the cockpit through the windscreen, terrorism obviously should not be excluded but the Acars messages, if confirmed, are also compatible with various other events beyond terrorism including , as an example, sudden loss of cabin pressure after compromised windscreen. I know it is extremely unlikely but we all know that it is not totally impossible for an aircraft to hit something...a tiny object can cause a total loss of aircraft if the impact point is vulnerable e.g. badly damaged windscreen at max altitude, high speed, can easily lead to a catastrophic series of events. Acars messages look genuine. Terrorists look for maximum carnage: this was a very late flight, low nr of pax, and why wait such a long time into the flight?... more likely an incident caused by an external object or internal interference but probably nothing to do with terrorism, unless something went very wrong in this individual's plan hence the illogical delay. No terrorist group has claimed responsibility neither which is unusual.

You make a very valid point. One day years ago when I was flying and we had just commenced descent, we had a meteorite flash very close to us and in fact ATC contacted us (we were approx 50m from the radar centre) to say they heard a sonic boom and asked if we were ok. Now I understand they burn up at a reasonably high altitude but still is there a possibility this could ever happen does anyone know?

[Islay]

CB's in the galley should trip if any high powered components fail such as ovens, boilers etc.

The only high power component in the toilet is the water heater and this also has a thermal cutout protection.

ACARS is just a communication system. Sending fault messages to the airline via the CMC, SDAC's,FWC's etc.

Avionics Smoke ECAM warning has a clear procedure to determine the problem, the SEC 2 fault shouldn't cause any problems to the aircraft by it self. The LAV Smoke caution is set off by a lav smoke detector. The ECAM caution wouldn't state which toilet this refers to. This would show on the FAP.

According to these ECAM warnings and cautions, the only one of real corncern would be the Avionics Smoke one. But this could be related to the others. Let's not forget where the cockpit oxygen cylinder is also located.

[mm43]

The ACARS may or may not be accurate.

The ACARS doesn't appear to be reproduced in the correct format, e.g. the following is an example of the final ACARS from AF447.

http://oi54.tinypic.com/2qx4yzs.jpg

Note that the AF447 sent sequence gave F/CTL warnings priority over other events - where possible. In respect of the purported MS804 sequence, some of the type identifiers appear truncated.

[Vc10Tail]

ACARS is bound to offer more useful intelligence to work with then terror dramatic theories.

Toilet,Avionics smoke and with light pax load possible panic caused a weight and balance problem??

why was the 360 degree turn?To revert to Greece or Cyprus for improved comm reception and emergency alternate? Was the turn inadvertently scrolled on Sel HDG due to smoked cockpit?Was one crew member incapacitated? We just dont know...CVR will tell.

I wonder how long it can take to comb the reported 11000 ft seabed?

[DaveReidUK]

Originally Posted by mm43

The ACARS doesn't appear to be reproduced in the correct format

I don't see how you can say that without knowing where the data was sourced from. AFAIK we don't know that.

If it was raw ACARS intercepted enroute from MS804 to the ground station, then I agree there would be lots of formatting stuff as per your AF447 example.

But if it's been dumped from Egyptair's (or ARINC/SITA's) ACARS processing application, I would expect it to look much as we are seeing, with all the extraneous stuff stripped out and only the error codes and messages displayed.

[BlankBox]

...lots of opportunities..maybe...at earlier stops?

[skridlov]

Originally Posted by highflyer40

Then where is the claim for responsibility? Terrorists live for the moment they can brag about what they have done. It's all quiet on that front. I would say that angle is becoming less and less likely each hour of silence.

This is a very simplistic idea of "what terrorists live for..." Given the rapidity with which various high-level agencies have countenanced the possibility of a malevolent cause, it's not really necessary to brag. Indeed the silence may be even more effective, giving a second opportunity to revive the story when it begins to show signs of flagging.

I have no more idea of the cause of this disaster than anyone else, and less than many, but given the nationality of the carrier and that country's recent history terrorism has got to be a significant possibility.

In that respect the fact that this aircraft's last location before its leg to Paris was Tunisia has occasioned less comment than I would have expected - given that the number of Tunisian members of Daish/Isis in Syria and Iraq exceeds that from any other country by a substantial factor.

[Admiral346]

00:26Z 3044 ANTI ICE R WINDOW
00:26Z 561200 R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR
00:26Z 2600 SMOKE LAVATORY SMOKE
00:27Z 2600 AVIONICS SMOKE
00:28Z 561100 R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR
00:29Z 2200 AUTO FLT FCU 2 FAULT
00:29Z 2700 F/CTL SEC 3 FAULT
no further ACARS messages were received

It's been a while since I've flown an A320...

So R SLIDING WINDOW SENSOR is the window open sensor?
And the R FIXED WINDOW SENSOR does what?

The clear thingy in front of my face used to be called windshield... Even in AB terms.

The rest is clear to me.
Maybe somone on type could enlighten me.

Thanks.


PS: To speculate, this does not sound like there was an explosion at all. If this report is true, and there had been an explosion, there'd be a list of messages as long as your leg...
It reads like a fire spreading in the avionics bay, right hand side.

[neilah]

Originally Posted by highflyer40

Then where is the claim for responsibility? Terrorists live for the moment they can brag about what they have done. It's all quiet on that front. I would say that angle is becoming less and less likely each hour of silence.

Unless the reveal of the terrorist unit also reveals the method of infiltration -- thereby cutting off future such terror success.

I honestly wonder if a bomb could've been onboard for two trips -- planted at CAI, but somehow waiting for a second low-pressure reading. Doesn't make sense against ACARS messages, but who knows. It's a thought.

[takata]

Hi all,
it looks to be a genuine ACARS report :
source : http://edition.cnn.com/2016/05/20/mi...ight-804-main/

[SquintyMagoo]

Swissair 111?