EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo

[ETOPS]

What evidence is, so far, that this aircraft has actually crashed?

Sure it is overdue and the radar return ceased over the Med but take a look sideways....

Turn off the transponder at the know area of poor RT coverage, make a spiral descent to low level over the sea then head for another destination as opposed to Cairo.

[andrasz]

Originally Posted by ETOPS

What evidence is, so far, that this aircraft has actually crashed?

None. All we know with reasonable certainty is that after an uneventful cruise at F370 with normal communications, ADS-B signal was lost just inside Cairo FIR, no further communication was received from the aircraft, and if we can trust the Greek minister's statement, primary radar tracked its descent to FL100 after which it was lost over the horizon.

Everything else at present is extrapolation/speculation.

While an unlikely scenario, the point of disappearance is exactly in the middle of the "blind spot" for both Greek and Egyptian primary radar below FL100, and there are plenty of runways in Northern Libya within expected endurance where an A320 could land. Hiding it after daybreak from prying satellite eyes is another story, and were this the case we would probably have heard the demands by now...

[log0008]

Very surprised we still have no wreckage, being such a busy area i expected it to be found very quickly, if its not found soon the headlines will be starting to see it like MH370

[milsabords]

Originally Posted by Gramsky

Conspiracy theory! But if true the only possible other destination without being detected crossing a coastline by radar would possibly be Libya. Which would mean it was highjacked by ISIS. But surely the USA military would have seen it on rader.

Is it possible that the US and/or Israel have AWACS monitoring this area ?

[Pace]

Today's papers all point to an explosion and IS attack again from
Point of origin in Paris
The US are convinced there was an explosion whether caused by terrorism or mechanical failure
It is also claimed that the aircraft went into a spin and crashed

[kbootb]

Summary time

Signal to noise on these threads becomes a problem very quickly.

Declaration: interested civilian with no qualifications to propose theories.

But, can anyone state for certain:

1). Is the rapid descent and turns a fact? Does anybody the source? e.g. the location of the radar - was it radar or a trace of transponder or other transmissions?
2) Last know definite position - not based on tracks that have been through software and are prone to extrapolations between updates.

3) Media sources state the flight level as 370 but have various times to run until landing, ranging from 20 to 30 mins. AT what point would you expect a descent to start? Is the flight level and last know position what you would expect on this flight plan?

Thanks in advance.

[underfire]

The US Navy certainly has a presence in that area, with ultimate tracking abilities.

[Heathrow Harry]

I think Israel will have the best coverage TBH..................

[mary meagher]

Onetrack, in post 213, makes sense. A well built aircraft can withstand a rupture in the hull, even with explosive decompression. But the elevator and the rudder if damaged could lead to unusual attitudes. The flight path described certainly looks like a spin, the turn one way, then the very rapid spiral descent. As for no communication, we all know the rules. Com comes last on that list.

The Med must be the worst place to search for floating evidence, it must be full of rubbish of every sort, especially life jackets near Greek islands....seems to me the sooner they can try to locate the ping from the recorders, the sooner they may find the wreckage.

[andrasz]

HH, the point of disappearance is 600km from the Israeli shoreline, too far for any land based radar even at FL370.

[BillS]

Radar coverage : https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAF_Akrotiri : see recent operations.

[xollob]

juristriction

if the Greeks couldn't raise the crew for a period of time why is it being handled by the Egyptians ? had it actually crossed Into their airspace confirmed by transponder returns or is this all based on expected position from flight route ?

I'm sure the world would rather this was handled by European investigators, rather than a country that is adamant that its security is sound and trying to convince the flying masses that it is a safe country to be bringing visitors to following the unfortunate Russian incident last year.

[Pace]

A well built aircraft can withstand a rupture in the hull, even with explosive decompression. But the elevator and the rudder if damaged could lead to unusual attitudes. The flight path described certainly looks like a spin, the turn one way, then the very rapid spiral descent. As for no communication, we all know the rules. Com comes last on that list.

What Mary Meagre says makes most sense to me i would just add that the A320 is fly by wire so we don't know what was damaged in the explosion which gave the crew little or no control

[andrasz]

@kbootb

1) No. It is inferred from the statement of the Greek minister of transport, but we have seen many such statements in the past from unqualified officials quickly changed or revoked.
2) Confirmed by both Greek ATC statement (can be taken as authentic) and also Egyptair. Also as seen from plenty of past events, FR24/Flightaware data are pretty reliable as long as real data are received, and in this case it does appear to be in agreement with official sources.
3) Fits perfectly, top of descent into Cairo along this route is usually just before the Egyptian shoreline, with 20-25 minutes left to landing. At their LKP they still had at least 35-40 minutes flight time left.

[mickjoebill]

visibility

According to my interpretation of the moon calculators, the moon was 90% (nearly full) and 20-50degress above the horizon at 270degrees.

If the weather was clear, I imagine it would be visible from copilots seat?

Mickjoebill

[Evanelpus]

I'm shocked that in 2016, we can't pinpoint to a fairly decent degree of certainty where the aircraft could be after 24hrs of daylight since it went missing.

The aircraft went missing in what was primarily 'European' airspace, so we are not talking Pacific Ocean or vast areas of dead zone radar coverage here.

I've avoided phrases like crash, downed, blown up etc because we don't know what happened here and my thoughts go out to all the families and friends of those onboard who must be going through hell at this very difficult time.

[ETOPS]

Just to re-iterate the loss of RT here is entirely normal. I've flown this route for over a decade and Greek ATC fades about 10 minutes from their FIR boundary. I always ask them to give me the expected Cairo freq beforehand so I can change over when crossing KUMBI. It can take a couple of minutes before you can hear the Egyptian controller but this is again entirely normal.

[Kerosene]

Was there an ELT signal following the disappearance? How is it known the plane crashed?

[Miraculix]

Global Pilots on missing Egyptair flight MS804

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

MONTREAL - The International Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations (IFALPA) is closely monitoring the developments related to the disappearance of Egyptair flight MS 804, an Airbus A320 en-route from Paris (CDG) to Cairo (CAI).

Our thoughts and best hopes are with the 66 crew and passengers onboard the aircraft, and their families.

Whilst the search and rescue efforts are taking place, IFALPA stresses the need to avoid speculation as to what happened to the aircraft. The Federation has reached out to the Egyptian Air Line Pilots’ Association and will offer its expertise to the Egyptian Accident Investigation Agency in order to help gather facts and any other information which may be pertinent to this event.

For further information, please contact Captain Martin Chalk, IFALPA President, at [phone] or [email protected], or Mrs. Anna Lou, IFALPA Communications & Marketing Coor- dinator, at [phone] or [email protected].
###
Note to Editors: The International Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations represents in excess of 100,000 pilots in about 100 countries around the globe. The mission of IFALPA is to promote the highest level of aviation safety worldwide and to be the global advocate of the piloting profession; providing representation, services and support to both our members and the aviation industry.
See the Federation website Home - IFALPA
©2016 The International Federation of Air Line Pilots’ Associations
In the interests of flight safety, reproduction of this Press Release in whole or in part is encouraged. It may not be offered of sale or used commercially. All reprints must credit IFALPA.

[fchan]

Originally Posted by ETOPS

Just to re-iterate the loss of RT here is entirely normal. I've flown this route for over a decade and Greek ATC fades about 10 minutes from their FIR boundary. I always ask them to give me the expected Cairo freq beforehand so I can change over when crossing KUMBI. It can take a couple of minutes before you can hear the Egyptian controller but this is again entirely normal.

Are you referring to the air to ground direction here too because, if so, any mayday call may not have been picked up.