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EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo

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EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo

Old 19th May 2016, 08:41
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If you look at the Fightaware plots for previous days, there is consistency in the data. Noteably, there is ADS-B coverage for the entire sector...for previous flights. So ADS-B coverage is complete and the flight hasn't gone into a ADS-B 'blindspot' and then failed to come out again. It has just stopped transmitting ADS-B data. From then on Flightaware asesses it's expected position unless it receives further real data from the aircraft, which in this case it never did.

Last edited by Lord Farringdon; 19th May 2016 at 08:45. Reason: spelling
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Old 19th May 2016, 08:47
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Everything so far would point to sabotage as the obvious - but as we know that isn't always the case. However, it if were to be I doubt the Egyptian airspace is a direct corrolation to this as the only way such a system would work would be on a GPS reliant system. If it is sabotage, it's more likely based on a timer or an altitude as we've seen previously - was the aircraft beginning to descend?

It may have been timed to occur based on a calculation when it entered said airspace but not directly related to it entering said airspace, if that makes sense.

Regardless, it raises concerns about security at CDG if it was the case. Was the aircraft on the ground long at CDG? The time of this is also important - just as the West begins it's holiday "Season" which would have substantial consequences for Egypt's already severely damaged tourism industry.
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Old 19th May 2016, 08:52
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Probably not relevant to the incident itself, but there is some confusion here between Egyptian airspace and the Egyptian FIR. In most cases FIR's will extend well beyond the generally agreed 12nms which is the extent of territorial airspace, and beyond that limit is international airspace. I'm assuming most on here already know that, but it's as well to use the correct terminology.
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:09
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Timer device ex Cairo (in wheel-well IED) that gets it through Paris and after departure CDG, completes the circuit to the barometric device that then initiates on descent Cairo. Not rocket science at all - but diverts attention to a security problem at Charles de Gaulle airport (when it's really a Cairo-based initiative and perp).
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:11
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Just like Metrojet 9268. In that case a US infrared satellite apparently detected a heat flash which could have been either an exploding fuel tank or a bomb explosion. It seems the satellite imagery also ruled out a missile attack. So, it will be interesting to see what they come up with this time.
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:15
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In that case a US infrared satellite apparently detected a heat flash which could have been either an exploding fuel tank or a bomb explosion.
Have you got any source for this statement?
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:21
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Have you got any source for this statement?
Metrojet Flight 9268: U.S. satellite imagery detected heat around jet before crash - World - CBC News
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:26
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A note on the aeronautical geography,
UL612 runs between SITIA VOR, (located at the SE end of Crete), and BALTIM VOR, (located on the coast, mid-way between Alexandria and Port Said). BALTIM is 70nm NNW of HECA.
Waypoint KUMBI is on UL612, at the boundary with Athinai (LGGG), and Cairo (HECC), FIRs, 151nm SE of SATIA VOR. It is 248nm NW of HECA.
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:27
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@chucko It was 16km into Egyptian airspace, 280KM from the Egyptian coast.
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:46
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Mawkish

PPrune should perhaps not allow a thread to start on a crash incident until 48 hours after the event. It might stop the torrent of morbid drivel that we seem to get when an incident is first reported. From the prize to see who can start the thread to those suggesting causes when the aircraft hasn't even been confirmed as down - it's like a plane-spotters' morbid conspiracy-fest. It's notable how few comments immediately after a 'crash' becomes news seem to come from professional pilots. Presumably because they wait for the acts to emerge before spouting forth.
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:46
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Greek media report that the airbus 320 had fallend vertically from 37000 ft to 9000 ft, and then a few seconds later it disappeared from radars.
src:EgyptAir: ?? ?????????? ?????? «??????????» ??? ?? 37.000 ??? 9.000 ?????
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:48
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A note on the aeronautical geography,
UL612 runs between SITIA VOR, (located at the SE end of Crete), and BALTIM VOR, (located on the coast, mid-way between Alexandria and Port Said). BALTIM is 70nm NNW of HECA.
Waypoint KUMBI is on UL612, at the boundary with Athinai (LGGG), and Cairo (HECC), FIRs, 151nm SE of SATIA VOR. It is 248nm NW of HECA.
____________________________________________________________ _________________________

For sure KUMBI isn't a top of descent
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:53
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Greek Media

The Governor of Hellenic Civil Aviation, Konstantinos Litzerakos, described the moments before the EgyptAir aircraft disappeared from radar.
“According to standard practice, when an aircraft enters another FIR, air traffic controllers of the previous FIR contact the pilot to inform him that he will communicate with the traffic controllers of the next FIR. That’s what our traffic controllers did, but the pilot of EgyptAir did not respond” Mr. Litzerakos said.
“The traffic controller continued calling the pilot, but with no result. At 3:29 and when the aircraft was flying in Cairo’s FIR the aircraft disappeared from radar, “he said adding: “We notified the Egyptian authorities, they did not know anything”.
Traffic controller spoke to the pilot over the island of Kea, in what was thought to be the last broadcast from the aircraft, but “The pilot did not mention any problems,” Mr. Litzerakos said.
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:58
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That’s what our traffic controllers did, but the pilot of EgyptAir did not respond
Normal for that route at that point - well known "dead spot" lasting for about 10 minutes.
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:58
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Originally Posted by Lord Farringdon
Just like Metrojet 9268. In that case a US infrared satellite apparently detected a heat flash which could have been either an exploding fuel tank or a bomb explosion. It seems the satellite imagery also ruled out a missile attack. So, it will be interesting to see what they come up with this time.
I bet the same.
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Old 19th May 2016, 09:59
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Originally Posted by WeeWinkyWilly
Timer device ex Cairo (in wheel-well IED) that gets it through Paris and after departure CDG, completes the circuit to the barometric device that then initiates on descent Cairo. Not rocket science at all - but diverts attention to a security problem at Charles de Gaulle airport (when it's really a Cairo-based initiative and perp).
Likely wasn't ex-Cairo before CDG, flightradar24 has SU-GCC visiting Tunis & Asmara in Eritrea on May 18 before flying the return from Paris to Cairo.......but your theory is therefore still very feasible.
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Old 19th May 2016, 10:00
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What was the time lapse from the frequency change r/t transmission by Greek ATC and the eventual radar disappearance at 03:29?
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Old 19th May 2016, 10:03
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Originally Posted by Lord Farringdon
If you look at the Flightaware plots for previous days, there is consistency in the data. Noteably, there is ADS-B coverage for the entire sector...for previous flights. So ADS-B coverage is complete and the flight hasn't gone into a ADS-B 'blindspot' and then failed to come out again.
An ADS-B "blindspot" in this context simply means that there isn't an enthusiast with a receiver within range of the flight, capturing data for Flightaware.

Likewise, the fact that previous days' plots are shown as continuous doesn't mean continuous data capture, all the enthusiast ADS-B networks use interpolation/extrapolation to some extent.

To put it another way, the precise point at which today's flight suffered a catastrophe can't be inferred with any certainty from what has been published by the flight tracking networks.
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Old 19th May 2016, 10:04
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Lots of "weather was fine" comments in press etc. Actually on my forecast charts I can see a 110kts jet stream FL350 flowing west to east, exactly at the location of lost contact.
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Old 19th May 2016, 10:05
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Podcast, the SBIRS satellites are designed to detect an ICBM launch and, coincidently, can sometimes detect the flash of an explosion in the upper atmosphere - if one of the 5 LEO birds is over the right area. As far as I am aware, nobody is suggesting MH370 exploded.
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