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EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo

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EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo

Old 19th May 2016, 18:20
  #141 (permalink)  
 
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"Wreckage of the missing EgyptAir flight has been found near Karpathosisland, the airline says.In a statement, EgyptAir says the confirmation has been made by Egypt's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to thecountry's Ministry of Civil Aviation." Statement from the BBC timeline of the accident.
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Old 19th May 2016, 18:22
  #142 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by A0283 View Post
1907hrs "Wreckage of the missing EgyptAir flight has been found near Karpathosisland, the airline says.In a statement, EgyptAir says theconfirmation has been made by Egypt's Ministry of Foreign Affairs to thecountry's Ministry of Civil Aviation." Statement from the BBC timeline of the accident.
Is it premature to offer a "well done" to all of those folks who pitched in for the search effort?
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Old 19th May 2016, 18:35
  #143 (permalink)  
 
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Lonewolf50 - I think you have to admire and support anyone involved in searches and recoveries like these, so in that sense not premature.

Wreckage is not the same as "wreck" though.

Wreckage, seafloor position location, wreck, lift and recovery is the sequence they still have to go through.
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Old 19th May 2016, 18:37
  #144 (permalink)  
 
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Greek CAA press release

Hellenic Civil Aviation Authority - News

no uncerfa or alerfa but immediate distress. well done for that controller.
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Old 19th May 2016, 18:40
  #145 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Jagwar View Post
Wageslave: Not amusing at all really - the obvious point is that we cannot any longer suppose that all flight crew, cabin crew and passengers had self preservation as a given. This kind of discussion would have been unbelievable 30 years ago.
It wouldn't have been completely unbelievable 30 years ago. 1982 had JAL 350, which was a clear case of "suicide by pilot".
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Old 19th May 2016, 18:46
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Is leaving airway at 90 degrees still a radio failure procedure? and a 360 an attention getter? after that things must have got more seriously wrong.
I don't think this turn was an attention getter. Remember no distress call was made which sounds very much like something went seriously wrong very quickly with no spare thinking capacity with nice 90 degree turns with consideration for others in the airway

Something either made the aircraft go into a violent left turn with attempts to gain control I keep thinking of the earlier Airbus rudder/tail damage

Some aircraft will bank as part of an emergency decent but not sure what the procedure is in the A320 and still you would not bank to a 90 degree turn

There is still the possibility of so many things its all guesswork even to a cargo fire or explosion interfering with control

They need the blackbox is that 15000 feet down or in shallower water ?
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Old 19th May 2016, 18:46
  #147 (permalink)  
 
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vmandr's link is to the official website of the Greek CAA , think it is helpful to put the full text here:


19 MAY2016 EGYPTAIR FLIGHT MSR 804 - HELLENIC REPUBLIC - MINISTRY OF INFRASTRUCTURE, TRANSPORT AND NETWORKS - CIVIL AVIATION AUTHORITY GOVERNOR Athens, May 19, 2016 PRESS RELEASE

SUBJECT: EGYPTAIR FLIGHT MSR 804

Egypt Air flight MSR 804, A320 en route from Paris to Cairo entered ATHINAI FIR at 02:24 am local time. It was Radar identified and cleared by the competent Air Traffic Controller for the flight path.

At 02:48 am local time, the flight was transferred to the next Area Control Center Sector and was cleared by the ATC for the exit point of ATHINAI FIR. The pilot was jocund and thanked in Greek.

At 03:27 am local time, ATHINAI Area Control Center tried to communicate with the flight for transfer of communication and control from ATHINAI FIR to CAIRO FIR.

Despite the repetitive calls, the flight did not respond and thus the Air Traffic Controller called on the emergency frequency without response.

At 03:29 am local time the flight was over the boundary point, between ATHINAI and CAIRO FIRs.

At 03:29:40 am local time the flight signal was lost from radar, almost 7 NM south/southeast from KUMBI point (boundary point, between ATHINAI and CAIRO FIRs), within Cairo FIR.

Immediate assistance of the Hellenic Air Force radars was requested for possible target tracking, with no avail.

At 03:45 am local time Search and Rescue (SAR) operations were activated through JRCC (Joint Rescue Coordination Center), NAOP (National Air Operations Center) and ADIC (Air Defense Information Center),while updating the Egyptian Civil Aviation Authorities.
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Old 19th May 2016, 18:55
  #148 (permalink)  
 
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As a response to lost of cabin pressure at FL37, turning 90 degrees off the airway prior to a rapid decent to 10,000 feet make sense. I do wonder if the quoted figures of 90 and 360 degrees from the Greek Defense Minister are actual figures, suggesting pilot control, or rounded numbers which suggest more precision/control than random numbers would.
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Old 19th May 2016, 18:59
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'Near Karpathos island' seems a long way from where the Oceanus and other vessels are searching.
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Old 19th May 2016, 19:01
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I presume they will conduct a methodical search along the track north of the located debris field.

At this point, an uncontained catastrophic engine failure cannot be ruled out.
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Old 19th May 2016, 19:02
  #151 (permalink)  
 
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Well that's interesting. Thanks to vmandr and the Hellenic CAA press release, we now know that Athinai ACC was calling 804, on en-route and emergency frequencies, without response, for 2 minutes and 40 seconds before "the flight signal was lost from radar".

What do we make of that?
But the last definite radio contact with the aircraft was at 02:48. Therefore, there's in fact 40 odd minutes unaccounted for before it went down.
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Old 19th May 2016, 19:06
  #152 (permalink)  
 
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Sequence reads;

0327 ATC tries to contact aircraft some 2 minutes from FIR boundary, and one assumes continues to call on working freq and Guard for next 2 mins or more.

0329 a/c crosses FIR boundary with no response to ATC - something is amiss in board.

40 seconds later something triggers a turn and rapid descent.

That ain't no coincidence the timing is just too cute. Looks like someone is out to deliver a nasty message to Egypt by the looks of it.

The turn and descent look not unlike a rapid depressurisation drill, not an unreasonable possibility after unlawful interference of a violent nature.

The FDR will be quickly recovered in those depths. We'll know soon enough.
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Old 19th May 2016, 19:09
  #153 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Pace View Post
I don't think this turn was an attention getter. Remember no distress call was made which sounds very much like something went seriously wrong very quickly with no spare thinking capacity with nice 90 degree turns with consideration for others in the airway

Something either made the aircraft go into a violent left turn with attempts to gain control I keep thinking of the earlier Airbus rudder/tail damage

Some aircraft will bank as part of an emergency decent but not sure what the procedure is in the A320 and still you would not bank to a 90 degree turn

There is still the possibility of so many things its all guesswork even to a cargo fire or explosion interfering with control

They need the blackbox is that 15000 feet down or in shallower water ?
Somewhere between 2 and 3000m in the area. "Herodotus Abyssal Plain".
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Old 19th May 2016, 19:09
  #154 (permalink)  
 
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SaturnV - I can't think of an instance of an I contained engine failure bringing a plane down. QF in Singapore was a pretty catastrophic failure but the plane got down.

DC10s and IL62s have history of a catastrophic engine failure bring the plane down but in modern history I can't think of an example.
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Old 19th May 2016, 19:11
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HT

why 'unaccounted' ? it was under POSITIVE radar contact, till the hand-over time to Cairo ACC / UIR boundary, and a little longer.


"The pilot was jocund and thanked in Greek." that is, in good mood, as far as the controller could tell.
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Old 19th May 2016, 19:25
  #156 (permalink)  
 
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It is a psychologically fundamental need to want to know of a serious incident as soon as possible. For obvious reasons. Whether in antiquity there were wolves around the sheep pen or a pilot next into an aircraft the need remains the same. It is impossible to override this need for immediate information and best if we dont even try.

Much of it will be misinformed, some wrong, some right and some untruthful, but we (as in humans rather than specialist professions) do have a knack for sorting out relevant information. Psychologically that is what we need to do. This site provides such informed information.
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Old 19th May 2016, 19:25
  #157 (permalink)  
 
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Here we go again.... Deja vu from Metrojet thread.

After theories of engine failures, the tail breaking off, loss of cabin pressure, we are now just waiting for the theory about lithium batteries in the hold/ cabin.

I could cut and paste previous posts on Metrojet.

3 probable causes;

1- Terrorism
2- Deliberate actions in the Flight Deck (could be combined with 1 above)
3 -LOC (as per Air Asia)

The wreckage, passenger bodies (RIP) and later, the CVR/ DFDR will confirm one of the above.

As it is an Egyptian carrier, out of Paris, at the border of the FIR, No.1 looks to be the more likely.
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Old 19th May 2016, 19:43
  #158 (permalink)  
 
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Here we go again.... Deja vu from Metrojet thread.

After theories of engine failures, the tail breaking off, loss of cabin pressure, we are now just waiting for the theory about lithium batteries in the hold/ cabin.

I could cut and paste previous posts on Metrojet.

3 probable causes;

1- Terrorism
2- Deliberate actions in the Flight Deck (could be combined with 1 above)
3 -LOC (as per Air Asia)

The wreckage, passenger bodies (RIP) and later, the CVR/ DFDR will confirm one of the above.

As it is an Egyptian carrier, out of Paris, at the border of the FIR, No.1 looks to be the more likely.
You forgot about Siberia Airlines Flight 1812

So, it is 4 probable causes
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Old 19th May 2016, 19:44
  #159 (permalink)  
 
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Rumors

First time, long time. I am not a pilot but currently working with the federal government of Egypt very closely on a large project there. I have dealt directly with members of the country's cabinet recently, although not in matters related to aviation.

There are people here that have said we should wait for more clear facts about the crash to arise before speculating. I'm going to take a wild guess that many of those people reside and in and have generally spent more of their professional lives in a developed country such an North America or Europe.

When dealing with this culture, integrity and facts simply are not valued in the same manner as they might be in other cultures, and I might imagine that this might have an impact of activities like an accident investigation. Face saving abounds in this culture. The regime also currently has taken widespread criticism over free speech in Egypt.

In the face of this, while I'm not a pilot and am in great admiration of the technical capacity, professionalism, and sense of mission of many on this blog, I have to disagree with those who seek to stifle debate about the events surrounding the apparent crash of this plane. In events like MS804 I think this blog and information like it actually serves as a helpful counterweight to forces within the country that might seek to limit a full explanation of the facts for a variety of reasons. I hope this continues.
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Old 19th May 2016, 19:50
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vmandr, unaccounted in as much as whatever may have developed prior to loss of radar contact at 03:29 may have occured at any time from the last radio TX from the aircraft at 02:48. It was only when ATC initiated a routine change of frequency TX at 03:27 that they realised there was no comm with the a/c. That doesn't mean that any problems the crew may have encountered was at that precise moment. It could have been any time after 02:48.

Last edited by Hotel Tango; 19th May 2016 at 20:00.
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