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EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo

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EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo

Old 24th May 2016, 15:05
  #701 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Lonewolf_50
It's early yet. The search effort is still underway.
AF 447 was in more than 12,000 feet of water. Once the site was found (after what, 2 years?) a great deal of information was gleaned from what the were able to obtain and examine with a variety of technology.
Air France (with the French Navy) searched for nearly two years for the AF 447 wreckage. In April 2011, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (Cape Cod, Massachusetts) arrived on the scene and located the AF 447 aircraft in about a week using Waitt Institute vehicles. You may recall that WHOI was also the organization that located the Titanic back in the 1980s.

Locating and recovering the flight recorders was another matter. The French government hired Phoenix International (Largo, Maryland) to do this. Using Remora 6000 vehicles operated from a French chartered ship, Phoenix found and recovered the flight recorders within a week of arriving at the site in April 2011. The flight data recorder's memory unit was no longer inside the flight recorder's orange housing and had to be located and retrieved separately from the sea floor.

Hopefully this search in the Med will be far less challenging than the mid-Atlantic, and there are no severe terrain challenges and mid ocean mountain ranges to overcome. The pingers may even still be pinging, which would be a terrific advantage. However if the local search authorities cannot find the wreckage in a timely matter, it would benefit all to bring in the experts who have a track record at finding and recovering aircraft and flight recorders from the bottom of the sea.

Last edited by Feathered; 24th May 2016 at 15:15.
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Old 24th May 2016, 15:20
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Good question T28B, I see what you are getting at. Other pilots on this forum have indicated that the area has marginal VHF voice coverage.

If the ACARS data is transmitted VHF-only, and all of the ground stations sites are just on the edge of the VHF ACARS range, one could assume the possibility of ACARS data drop-outs.

The decoded reports such as what we have seen so far would normally only show the error-free messages. I presume there are recordings of the raw data that can be further dissected.
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Old 24th May 2016, 15:54
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It would be a good idea for people to look back over the AF447 thread. The wreck could have been found a lot earlier if the search pattern hadn't been interrupted by a spurious indication of a pinger picked up apparently by a nuclear sub the Emeraude. This red herring caused the search vessels to divert, and lose the remainder of their search time for that season. Also as far as this incident is concerned there are a lot of assets in the med, there is a much more accurate LKP and much closer ports for search vessels to use.

Last edited by swordfish41; 24th May 2016 at 15:55. Reason: auto spelling of Emeraude
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Old 24th May 2016, 16:02
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Responding to doubts about these ACARS messages:

In post #652, Water Pilot said "In my career I saw lots of messed up computer transmissions, but these messages have a logical coherence. I'm not saying it is not possible that the messages are bogus, but there are a whole lot of ACARS messages possible for the computer to pick randomly from."

In my 45 year career as a software engineer, I know that you need to keep some doubt in mind about the cause of a message until you have fixed the problem and successfully tested it. And, although I have worked with SCADA systems before, I don't have specific knowledge about the ACARS system.

That being said, these ACARS messages reflect substantial functionality of the system. They are properly formed and properly time-stamped and followed the communication protocols well-enough to be received. Also, with that level of functionality, most safety related systems are designed to report problems with the system itself - and there are no reports that the ACARS system detected any such problems.

If I were looking at these messages for the purpose of diagnosing a problem with the damaged aircraft systems, my initial expectation would be that the source of these reports were, in fact, from the sensors denoted in the reports.

I don't want to get involved in how confident we can be about these ACARS reports because that can only be done in the context of how you want to use the information. But I certainly find it reasonable to have a discussion that presume their validity - so long as we keep some doubt in mind.

I would also defend "impatience" for other data. Althoug we all have high hopes for the recovery of the recorders, we do not what additional data will actually become available.
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Old 24th May 2016, 16:04
  #705 (permalink)  
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Even though the LKP for MSR804 has not been reliably determined, it may be worthwhile reading/reviewing the Report to the BEA document by Metron Scientific Solutions regarding methodologies for determining the location of the final crash site of AF447, entitled, Search Analysis for the Location of the AF447 Underwater Wreckage

Another document, which I cannot locate online yet, was a report, (presentationMAK.ppt), apparently written by the IAC/MAK concerning known aircraft descent trajectories of previous LOC accidents. I know that this point has been made earlier in the thread but the presentation reinforces the notion that crash sites are almost always within ~12nm of the LKP.

@.Scott - Given the recoveries of recorders from the AF447 & AirAsia accidents and given similar search conditions, I am confident that the recorders will be found. I expect that there will be a multi-national specialist group with hand-to-hand recording of the "evidence trail" at any such recovery, transport, disassembly, and reading of same. The A320 recorders (and where it survives, the QAR), typically records ~2000 parameters. This of course varies with data frame and installation. What occurred in both the cited cases herein show that a very good determination of what transpired immediately prior to the accident sequence, will be known and understood, providing all the usual protocols and processes for such investigations are followed to ensure transparency, and documented for all to witness. It is far too early to make any further statements regarding cause.

Last edited by PJ2; 24th May 2016 at 16:16.
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Old 24th May 2016, 16:23
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D Bru.

Images of apparently sizeable debris fields, by US Navy P3 Orion based at Naval Air Station Sigonella, Sicily, Italy.
A bit surprised that all the US Navy can provide, is a video from a hand-held iPhone. If that is the state of their surveillance capability, no wonder the search is taking so long.

Strata
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Old 24th May 2016, 16:44
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@ silverstrata

Well, as a European, this accident having happened on the EU's border, I'm happy with the US publishing at least some debris field images. Apart from some small items recovered, I don't think the Egyptian, Greek nor French Navy posted something similar. This is in stark contrast with the transparency of the Brazilian Airforce handling AF447, which saw from day 1 a steady stream of images, including flown grids, what was found where and so on.

PS Isn't it remarkable that at least the VS hasn't been located yet....
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Old 24th May 2016, 16:45
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Not surprising that the Navy only posted iThing video. The P-3 is a military reconnaissance aircraft, and they're unlikely to post video that demonstrates the plane's true capabilities, just to trend on Twitter or whatever.
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Old 24th May 2016, 16:56
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Quote from #711 .Scott
If I were looking at these messages for the purpose of diagnosing a problem with the damaged aircraft systems, my initial expectation would be that the source of these reports were, in fact, from the sensors denoted in the reports.
There is no reason not to consider the possibility that the sensors were the source. On that basis one might suspect failure of the right hand windows and decompression followed by progressive hull failure. There would have to be some way of connecting the window faults with the FCU and SEC faults for this scenario; what if not hull failure?

The cause of the window failure could still be a bomb?

That is why I prefer the wiring/power theory, but little can be ruled out at this stage.
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Old 24th May 2016, 17:00
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News reports say that one Egyptian forensics expert has examined 80 body fragments, the largest of which is a hand. Some of these tiny fragments show burn marks. None of them are large. Of course, this may or may not be true.

I was a TWA pilot when TWA 800 went down. The failure was at a relatively high altitude and quite catastrophic. There were some body fragments, but many were intact except their clothes were blown off while some were fully clothed with no sign of damage at all, like you would expect in a swimming pool drowning. I think it's safe to say the TWA 800 parts impacted the water at a significant speed, but not at ultra high speed as might be the case with an intact, but out-of-control aircraft nosing in at Vne.

Are there airline crashes at sea where there were no large human remains? Or does the lack of large body parts not indicate anything definitive?
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Old 24th May 2016, 17:08
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Originally Posted by Mozella
News reports say that one Egyptian forensics expert has examined 80 body fragments, the largest of which is a hand. Some of these tiny fragments show burn marks. None of them are large. Of course, this may or may not be true.

I was a TWA pilot when TWA 800 went down. The failure was at a relatively high altitude and quite catastrophic. There were some body fragments, but many were intact except their clothes were blown off while some were fully clothed with no sign of damage at all, like you would expect in a swimming pool drowning. I think it's safe to say the TWA 800 parts impacted the water at a significant speed, but not at ultra high speed as might be the case with an intact, but out-of-control aircraft nosing in at Vne.

Are there airline crashes at sea where there were no large human remains? Or does the lack of large body parts not indicate anything definitive?
Swissair 111 crashed at sea and according to a report I read, only one body was intact.
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Old 24th May 2016, 17:14
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This is probable, but without further evidence the cause could still be terrorism or a defect. The only thing that is looking unlikely is pilot error.
I don't think so. There was some triggering event. Overheating, crushing of glass, arc or short circuit, battery runaway, explosion, smoke etc. It was after midnight, nobody was fresh. Remember AF477 - nobody told "stall", all three were fully confused. They surely knew what the stall is, but in that moment they couldn't see it, they didn't believe computer warnings. In our case the crew might be confused and did some wrong actions too. I hope that they didn't, but experience teaches us that we all do mistakes. We must wait for a more data.

Are there airline crashes at sea where there were no large human remains?
I can remember KE007, MA240
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Old 24th May 2016, 17:25
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Originally Posted by silverstrata
A bit surprised that all the US Navy can provide, is a video from a hand-held iPhone. If that is the state of their surveillance capability, no wonder the search is taking so long.

Strata
What the USN can provide, and will provide to a variety of interested parties like the Egyptian MoD, Aviation Ministry, etc, to BEA, and others is a bit more than that. What the 6th Fleet chose to provide for the ravening maw that is the 24/7 news cycle is ... PR stuff.
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Old 24th May 2016, 17:27
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Originally Posted by Mozella
Are there airline crashes at sea where there were no large human remains? Or does the lack of large body parts not indicate anything definitive?
SR111
Transportation Safety Board of Canada - Aviation Investigation Report A98H0003
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Old 24th May 2016, 17:52
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US Navy Update #5

UPDATE 5
May 22, 2016 at 11:20 UTC
May 21, the U.S. Navy P-3 Orion maritime patrol aircrafts continued to support the search effort with two missions from NAS Sigonella. While on station the first (4th flight) aircraft coordinated its search efforts with the Egyptian Navy and located a large debris field with over 100 pieces to include approximately four pieces of large debris (approx. 10ft x 10ft). The pieces were positively identified as aircraft debris and the location and description of all debris was passed to the Egyptian Navy. The second aircraft (5th flight) did not find anything.
Not sure if this had been posted here, but I am assuming no pictures of the large debris mentioned above (four pieces 10ft x 10ft)?

- GY
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Old 24th May 2016, 17:58
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Originally Posted by PJ2
Another document, which I cannot locate online yet, was a report, (presentationMAK.ppt), apparently written by the IAC/MAK concerning known aircraft descent trajectories of previous LOC accidents. I know that this point has been made earlier in the thread but the presentation reinforces the notion that crash sites are almost always within ~12nm of the LKP.
A small summary of the results of the Briefing including a graphic showing the distribution of distance of travel between LoC and Impact in 9 previous cases you can find in
http://fusion.isif.org/proceedings/F...papers/140.pdf on page 1063, Figure 2


It would probably wise to start from LKP in this case as well. LKP being the point where primary radar signal was lost. They should find it in a circle of much less than 5NM from there. Compared to AF447 (or even MH370) finding this one should be a walk in the park.
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Old 24th May 2016, 18:03
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Originally Posted by silverstrata
A bit surprised that all the US Navy can provide, is a video from a hand-held iPhone. If that is the state of their surveillance capability, no wonder the search is taking so long.

Strata
I don't believe anyone claimed that all the U.S. Navy can provide is handheld video. USN is much smarter than releasing handiwork of its capabilities and has no need see itself on the evening news. Relevant information for the investigation will of course be provided to the relevant investigative parties that need to know.
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Old 24th May 2016, 18:16
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henra, re, "They should find it in a circle of much less than 5NM from there. Compared to AF447 (or even MH370) finding this one should be a walk in the park. "

Completely agree.
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Old 24th May 2016, 18:20
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Featherbed.

I don't believe anyone claimed that all the U.S. Navy can provide is handheld video. USN is much smarter than releasing handiwork of its capabilities and has no need see itself on the evening news.
There is a big difference between releasing your full capabilities and making yourself look incompetent. All they need do is degrade the quality of the proper surveillance photos by 90% and release those. But to release an iPhone video through a frosted window on an official USN website, is a PR blunder of epic proportions. But having watched a recent documentary on Canadian SAR aircraft, where the equipment was three decades old and barely worked, I do wonder.
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Old 24th May 2016, 18:24
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Has anyone thought about a fire on the flight deck that got out of hand very quickly forcing the crew to evacuate the flight deck?
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