EgyptAir 804 disappears from radar Paris-Cairo

[Lonewolf_50]

Grains of Salt Advised

Originally Posted by oleostrut

"A senior U.S. intelligence official familiar with the U.S. capabilities in the region told NBC News the cause of the crash remains unclear, but infrared and multispectral imagers indicate strongly there was an explosion on the flight. "

Source of the above: NBC news Live Blog. A further excerpt demonstrates how much noise gets added to signal ...

"It's not conclusive, but it's suggestive," a U.S. administration official concurred. "Now, the question is, if there was an explosion, what caused it? Mechanical failure? Explosives? No idea at this point."

Was it necessary for "a senior US Intelligence official" to open his mouth on this? No. Sharing such info as can be shared with Egypt/Greece/France (et al) can be done via the usual channels without using the news as a vehicle.

Was it necessary for "a U.S. administration official" to offer the "what does it mean" noise? No. (Sadly, feeding the 24/7 news cycles seems to be all that some 'officials' are good for )

[James7]

Hijack

If this was a mid air explosion then very likely debris would have been found by now. The med is a pretty busy place after all especially close to the islands. This seems more like a hijacking, by crew or pax. - aircraft disappearing etc sounds all to familiar. Hijacking and crash or hijacking and evade. Take your choice. Until there are pieces floating in the sea my bet is on evade.

[portmanteau]

BBC reporting no wreckage found yet and Egypt has apparently retracted earlier statements.

[anengineer]

I hope we're not going to be facing another 'fading pinger' scenario when they search for the CVDR from the bottom of the Med.

[Lonewolf_50]

Originally Posted by portmanteau

BBC reporting no wreckage found yet and Egypt has apparently retracted earlier statements.

Consistent with info on Lloyd's list (from your link)

Capt A Rotashnyuk of Laskaridis Shipping-operated ultramax Oceanus spoke exclusively to Lloyd’s List via satellite phone.“We didn’t find anything. No traces of fuel, no debris,” he confirmed.
Some objects were discovered, including a blanket, a canister and pieces of plastic, but it is not known if they are from the missing Airbus.
Oceanus has been in position since around 0600 local time, and will remain at the spot for the time being.

@anengineer: on the pinger score, the prospects are more hopeful than with MH370 (presuming it works) due to no delay / red herring as with that case, the greater amount of radar coverage in the area, and the proximity of airports/ports/etc much nearer. A far better LKP (well, datum, there's a smaller AoP) gives all of the search effort better chances, to include the more exotic equipment needed for the very deep water in the area.

[Old Boeing Driver]

Just my $.02

I don't think there is a significance about the lack of handover loss of communications.

That area has been known to have silent spots and sometimes you just have to fly until you hear Cairo and give them a call.

Maybe they didn't hear the Greeks, and had already changed to a Cairo frequency. I'm sure they knew what frequency they were going to be assigned.

I would go along with an earlier poster, that a device was installed at a location where security might not be as tough as CDG.

It could have been detonated by a timer (they really don't care when it blows), or by someone on board.

Look back at the crash out of Sharm El Sheikh.....many thought that was a trial run.

[Volume]

That area has been known to have silent spots and sometimes you just have to fly until you hear Cairo and give them a call.

If loss of communication is that common in this area, why did the greek ATC started to communicate on the emergency frequency?
Is it that common, that aircraft enter egypt FIR without explicit clearance from Cairo?
(it very may well be possible, I´m just curious)

[pfmayer]

BBC reports: "A US review of satellite images has produced no signs of an explosion on board, Reuters news agency reports, quoting officials from multiple US agencies."
Greek airforce is flying daily or twice a day recon missions from their two bases in Crete. If they didn't find debris in their well known seas with a lot of imagery from yesterday to compare with, there isn't any. Crash without debris - possible?

[James7]

Is it that common, that aircraft enter egypt FIR without explicit clearance from Cairo

Aircraft have been doing it for years. It is just a handover.

[Old Boeing Driver]

@Volume

Yes, it happens regularly.

They may have started the emergency drill due to their SOP's.

[Phalconphixer]

Couple of points picked up reading these comments and not making any wild accusations or suggestions just need to know.

Early comments suggest that ADS-B coverage in the area is flaky... this is not borne out when viewing real time FR24 coverage or a replay of the movements at the supposed time of the accident. All returns are solid except for MS804 and one other, briefly mentioned earlier but since ignored, UAE194.

There is, according to FR24, a definite conflict with MSR804 heading 147deg and alt 36,975' and UAE194 heading101deg at 37,000' All things being equal TCAS should have been screaming in RA mode... could it be that the hard left turn and rapid descent by MSR804 was initiated in response to an RA warning? Or even in an 'Oh ****' response to a sudden visual appearance of a B777 filling his windscreen just 25 ft above... (assuming high accuracy of the reporting altimeters...)
Strangely the FR24 trace on UAE 194 disappears shortly after the conflict... all other FR24 tracks are solid throughout, no 'flakyness.'

Outlandish suggestion? Tinfoil Hat time? No more than many other suggestions being made here... All too often these days political expediency seems to take priority over reality.

[Old Boeing Driver]

PhalconPhixer

I'm curious about UAE194. I haven't seen any of the ADS-B info

There are no airways in that area that would cause a 101 degree heading, so where was UAE194 coming from and going to?

Also, if Egyptair was on a 147 heading and UAE was on a 101 heading there would not be a "head-on" situation.

Not saying your premise is not correct, but just asking.

Thanks for your input.

[logansi]

Othe EK flight was not actually being tracked, but on replay it is tracked because it joins the last point and then when it is tracked again and joins the 2, it was not actually in that area

[SFI145]

Originally Posted by Phalconphixer

could it be that the hard left turn and rapid descent by MSR804 was initiated in response to an RA warning?

No an RA can never command a turn.

[MartinM]

@Phalconphixer. I like you theorie, but they would have been able to send our an emergency call. which here was not the case. And there was no collision like in Uberlingen.

[EEngr]

UAE194 has landed by now. So it would seem logical that someone has asked whether the flight was uneventful or otherwise.

Even the SLF might have noticed a sudden climb or descent at about the right time.

[Old Boeing Driver]

UAE194

I just researched UAE194 on Flightaware.

There is a lot lot of data missing during the flights that were operated through that area.

The UAE194 on 16 may actually has it going north to Greece, then back south to resume what looks like a normal path.

I also looked on FR24. it looks like they usually enter HECA airspace at Salun and go over El Daba. Nowhere near MS804.

[Old Boeing Driver]

@notapliot15

Since this happened to an Egyptian Airliner in Egyptian airpace, the facts may never be known. IMHO.

This is a great forum for speculations of all types. Sometimes the "off the wall" stuff is true.

Nobody has mentioned a meteor strike yet......... :-)

[vmandr]

@OBD?

Strange huh? seems some tracker software unable to drop erroneous position data. In your example 200nm North followed by another 200nm South, all potition nicely connected, all in a matter of minutes ?
UAE gone Supersonic ?

[Old Boeing Driver]

@vmandr

It looks like the ADS-B for the area around the northern Cairo FIR is just not reliable.

Having flown that area a lot (a long time ago), the equipment to get the ADS-B is probably still not there.

I know from friends flying in those areas now that radio communications have not changed much.