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Old 19th Mar 2016, 04:56   #21 (permalink)
 
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https://www.flightradar24.com/data/a...6-fdn/#922b3bd

Here's the FR24 playback.

C.A
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 05:13   #22 (permalink)
 
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First Video from the crash scene, it appears the plane almost nose dived into the runway
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 05:14   #23 (permalink)
 
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Realizing that the radar shows ground speed and not airspeed, it still brings up the possibility of a stall. Someone with some more time tonight can probably calculate the final decent 's VVI.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 05:19   #24 (permalink)
 
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If the video is real, looks very similar to that of the Tartastan accident at Kazan.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 05:22   #25 (permalink)
 
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FDP limitations a reason for not diverting?!

If these guys would have diverted, they might have had to layover... You cannot make it back to DXB in one FDP with 3 sectors.
For sure if you are carrying enough fuel to hold for 2 hours, it means you don't want to divert!
FZ and EK are known to push FDL to the limit!
Poor sods...
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 05:29   #26 (permalink)
 
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preliminary passenger list has been published

http://lifenews.ru/news/191188

google will translate
https://translate.google.com.au/tran...Fnews%2F191188
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 05:44   #27 (permalink)
 
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Careful with those allegations that the aircraft "may have been on fire" judging from those seconds shown on the video.

Aircraft are known to show landing lights during approach; those are a perfectly good explanation for the lights seen and according to Occams Razor much more probable than an inflight fire.

I suggest that respect for the colleagues and their passengers on board dictates a cautious approach to speculating.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 05:53   #28 (permalink)
 
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FR24 Observations

16.29 Fairly close to airport at 11K ft.
16.42 On approach then began to climb and increase speed so did a missed approach from an altitude of 1750ft
16.50 climbed out to 8K ft. southwest and from there into a circle towards the northeast
17.15 After circling to the northeast of the airport, increased altitude to 15K ft to fly to holding pattern southeast of runway
17.27 Enter holding pattern southeast of airport at altitude of 15K ft.
18.24 On the 9th circuit of the hold, began decent and approach to airport
18.36 Turned into runway heading on approach at 2750ft
18.38 Began decent from 2750ft to airport
------Approached looks normal, speeds mirror first approach (105-115Kts) until seemingly almost the same point on the approach where they aborted the first time.
18.40 Speed increases and altitude increases from a low point of 1550ft so a second missed approach seems to be happening
18.41 Speed at 185Kts and altitude at 3975ft but next to last data point
18.42 Last data point. Speed up to 197Kts but altitude has fallen to 925ft

So from missed approach at ~16.42 until beginning second approach at ~18.24, pilots obviously troubleshooting or waiting for weather for about one hour and 42 minutes. Approach looks fine before it all went south with the time from the 2nd missed approach to the crash only being around 2 minutes. The final decent seems to be at high speed and high angle of decent (3K feet decent in less than a minute at almost 200Kts). Speeds don't decay low enough to indicate a stall...but that can depend on a lot of other things (AoA, configuration of the flaps, etc.) we don't have yet so could have happened. Fuel starvation (complete) is highly doubtful because they managed to increase speed and altitude which means they had power.

Last edited by PuraVidaTransport; 19th Mar 2016 at 06:05.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 06:07   #29 (permalink)
 
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Looked at another flight tracker. Looks like they got slow on second miss. About 40 knots GS below what their approach speed was on the second attempt. (Which was 129)

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Old 19th Mar 2016, 06:20   #30 (permalink)
 
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Local (Rostov) people confirm that the weather was really bad that night: rain and strong wind. But the visibility was not that bad. It was reported on TV that shortly before that tragic crash two Russian planes (one from Moscow, another from St-Petersburg) decided not to land and diverted to Krasnodar, which is just 20 min to the south. Though their crews of course knew the Rostov airport quite well. One more Aeroflot plane managed to land after 2-3 attempts. Why the Dubai plane did not go to another airport???
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 06:23   #31 (permalink)
 
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ATC Comms

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Old 19th Mar 2016, 06:35   #32 (permalink)
 
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Based on ATC comms above:

Their worry seamed defiantly to be wind/windshear not visibility.
Also noted a few issue with accent and also altitude in meters.
Also confirmation they were in a go around before the crash, sounded very normal and causal reporting of 'skydubai 981 going around' - no issue at that time.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 06:41   #33 (permalink)
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Just a couple of points:
Quote:
- does not matter if they was qualified for ALL WX, as the airport was only a Cat 1 airport
1). That aircraft was fully capable of carrying out a coupled approach to Cat1 minima and continue for a manual landing.

2). It is possible that they were tankering fuel, (due cost), if not carrying round trip fuel. Quite possibly plenty of holding fuel and still enough for a diversion.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 06:59   #34 (permalink)
 
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CNN reported that the aircraft's tail "clipped the runway" ?

Flydubai airliner crashes in Russia; 62 dead - CNN.com

I heard the ATC recordings as well and unless they declared a go around (verbal comms) and then only went around (action), maybe they then had a tailstrike?

They did sound very calm and collected as well in the recordings, unlike a crew having a low fuel scenario. Inclined to believe they tankered anyway.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 07:02   #35 (permalink)
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From avherald.com

Quote:
The aircraft carried fuel for trip, contingency, alternate, final fuel reserve (30 minutes) and additional holding for about 2:30 hours, total fuel for an endurance of about 8.5 hours. The aircraft had been airborne until time of impact for 06:02 hours.
Quote:
After about 2 hours of holding the aircraft commenced another approach to Rostov's runway 22, winds from 240 degrees at 27 knots (14 m/s) gusting 42 knots (22 m/s), but struck a wing onto the runway at about 3:43 (00:43Z), broke up, came to a rest near the end and to the right of the runway and burst into flames.
Quote:
We are aware of the video but for now have dismissed this video (which appears to be in contradiction to available radar data and official announcements, e.g. by MAK)
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 07:04   #36 (permalink)
 
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Security video

Room for misreporting and poor translation, Ministry of Emergenciencies says that the "tail hit the ground".


Airliner crashes in Russia; 61 aboard reported dead http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/18/europe/russia-plane-crash/index.html


Re the video:
Using the passing car as a reference, the security camera is sensitive to the IR emitting in Nav, landing lights and flame.

There appears to be two distinct targets (lights) descending that do not alter their relative position on descent.

The online video looks to have been recorded off a screen.

This would explain the curious framing for a security camera.

The original recording should have more detail.

Mickjoebill

Last edited by mickjoebill; 19th Mar 2016 at 07:42.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 07:10   #37 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
but struck a wing onto the runway at about 3:43 (00:43Z), broke up, came to a rest near the end and to the right of the runway and burst into flames.
This point i feel doesn't make sence to me - all the wreckage (from life news) appears to be very small, more like a crash from altitude, where as this would suggest damage more like the Fedex crash in Toyko
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 07:23   #38 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by swish266 View Post
Unless we get a time print with the transcript, I would say the "going around" phrase could be from the first G/A...
Its the second attempt because earlier in the recording the pilot asks if the conditions are better than the first time
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 07:32   #39 (permalink)
 
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Quote:
but struck a wing onto the runway at about 3:43 (00:43Z), broke up, came to a rest near the end and to the right of the runway and burst into flames.
Quote:
This point i feel doesn't make sence to me - all the wreckage (from life news) appears to be very small, more like a crash from altitude, where as this would suggest damage more like the Fedex crash in Toyko
A paradigm that might fit the scenario is that the initial wing strike took place near the beginning of the runway, this rendering the aircraft uncontrollable (for any number of reasons) but, since the crew were overshooting, they had time to gain a bit of height before the final impact sequence.

Not saying that's the case, of course.
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Old 19th Mar 2016, 07:33   #40 (permalink)
 
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Holy smokes, watch the video again. Those are lights on the Aircraft, a bright Landing light a flashing strobe and maybe a Nav light.......it was a steep impact......
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