BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR
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Anyone say if this is normal soot/staining expected in this piece?
https://youtu.be/I9KphRd-OCY?t=158
https://youtu.be/I9KphRd-OCY?t=158
It points to a fire after initial event and for quite some time. It means that after initial event tail remained attached for quite some time.
Edit:
Actually this sooting is on the roof. Right where vertical stabilzer used to be. It could be oil. From pictures you can see, that this kind of "sooting" has been almost constant throughout this plane life. As there is no obvious sooting on a tail part roof, this is not an indication of fire around fuselage.
Last edited by Prada; 9th Nov 2015 at 09:56.
But the announcement of their conclusions, whatever they may be, is now going to have to be carefully stage-managed, given the developments of the last nine days. Don't hold your breath.
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To date, only the intelligence services in the UK and US have suggested that there are strong indications that it may have been a bomb. They haven't actually ever said it was a bomb.
But that's the intel business, experts making a guess from limited and inadequate information at best, and indulging in outright fabrication at worst.
A bit like PPRuNe in many ways.
But that's the intel business, experts making a guess from limited and inadequate information at best, and indulging in outright fabrication at worst.
A bit like PPRuNe in many ways.
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If for some reason the jackscrew link to the HS broke. The HS is not going to suddenly turn 90° but is surely going to suffer from intense flutter as it is no longer rigid? That could explain the elevator damage and final departure of the HS parts?
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London confirms that it has passed intelligence data to Moscow which confirms that the likely cause of the A321 plane crash over the Sinai Peninsula was likely due to a terrorist act, the British Foreign Office told Sputnik on Monday.
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Thanks Kulver.
In English:
Kremlin Confirms London Gave Moscow 'Certain Information' on A321 Crash
I guess more ducks in a row.
In English:
Kremlin Confirms London Gave Moscow 'Certain Information' on A321 Crash
I guess more ducks in a row.
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HS separation
A second effort to illustrate a possible interpretation of HS separation. I understand this possibility is contentious/debatable and, as with my previous suggestion that the HS assembly went 'straight out the back' as a result of near 90 degree breaking off the APU section completely as it went, some evidence appears to fit, some doesn't. For simplicity's sake I have ignored movement of the elevator relative to the HS in the diagram.
And as ever, irrespective of the plausibility of this scenario, the initiating factor remains unclear.
And as ever, irrespective of the plausibility of this scenario, the initiating factor remains unclear.
Last edited by Bertie Bonkers; 9th Nov 2015 at 11:03. Reason: Additional comment
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"But that's the intel business, experts making a guess from limited and inadequate information at best, and indulging in outright fabrication at worst.
A bit like PPRuNe in many ways".
Unquote
I think that statement is incorrect. The UK and USA Intelligence services are recognised as the best in the world in terms of global footprint and global reach. By sheer volume and diversity of (re)sources, the two biggest contributors to NATO is untouchable.
PPRuNe, members of PP Rumour Network, has thus far delivered some amazing analysis and knowledge on a very complex subject. This is the beauty of 21st Century communication, it is instantaneous, graphic and accessible by most almost anywhere.
Hiding and sweeping things under the carpet has become very difficult.
"But that's the intel business, experts making a guess from limited and inadequate information at best, and indulging in outright fabrication at worst.
A bit like PPRuNe in many ways".
Unquote
I think that statement is incorrect. The UK and USA Intelligence services are recognised as the best in the world in terms of global footprint and global reach. By sheer volume and diversity of (re)sources, the two biggest contributors to NATO is untouchable.
PPRuNe, members of PP Rumour Network, has thus far delivered some amazing analysis and knowledge on a very complex subject. This is the beauty of 21st Century communication, it is instantaneous, graphic and accessible by most almost anywhere.
Hiding and sweeping things under the carpet has become very difficult.
@ Bertie
The logic is not entirely flawed, but there are two things firmly against it:
The slots in the fuselage side conform to allowed HS up (max 5 deg) and down (12 deg) movements, and as we have seen on several photos it is framed by strong support beams. That would limit the possible downward movement of the HS in your scenario.
As the HS moves down, the aircraft nose pitches up, and this would be recorded on the FDR prior to loss of sgnal. As the FDR loss of signal was abrupt without anything but normal parameters, the tail separation had to be one of the first events.
The logic is not entirely flawed, but there are two things firmly against it:
The slots in the fuselage side conform to allowed HS up (max 5 deg) and down (12 deg) movements, and as we have seen on several photos it is framed by strong support beams. That would limit the possible downward movement of the HS in your scenario.
As the HS moves down, the aircraft nose pitches up, and this would be recorded on the FDR prior to loss of sgnal. As the FDR loss of signal was abrupt without anything but normal parameters, the tail separation had to be one of the first events.
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Bertie Bonkers
Why would HS drop down? Is there a drawing where you can compare HS areas front and aft of its horisontal axis along remaining joints ?
It should only do that if frontal area is bigger than that behind axis. AOA also has to be considered of course.
Why would HS drop down? Is there a drawing where you can compare HS areas front and aft of its horisontal axis along remaining joints ?
It should only do that if frontal area is bigger than that behind axis. AOA also has to be considered of course.
PPRuNe, members of PP Rumour Network, has thus far delivered some amazing analysis and knowledge on a very complex subject.
Don't we need to know what really happened before deciding whether the above is true or not....
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Thank HundredPercentPlease
That helps...you can see that at least most the staining was previous...
Is it all skydrol or as Kulver says APU exhaust leaking from within the APU cone idk..?!
Here is another shot for ref..underside looks clean enough to me..no evidence of soot..,
That helps...you can see that at least most the staining was previous...
Is it all skydrol or as Kulver says APU exhaust leaking from within the APU cone idk..?!
Here is another shot for ref..underside looks clean enough to me..no evidence of soot..,
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"Don't we need to know what really happened before deciding whether the above is true or not...."
Unquote
No we don't. This is where 21st Century style communication enters. PPRuNe, and others, fill a void whereby armchair 'detectives and analysers' can individually and collectively contribute knowledge in real time. The days of solely relying on 'others' to spoon feed us is long gone. Right here and now we have dozens of members contributing some very factual information and graphics. Your and my presence on this forum is proof of that quest for information
Welcome the future.
"Don't we need to know what really happened before deciding whether the above is true or not...."
Unquote
No we don't. This is where 21st Century style communication enters. PPRuNe, and others, fill a void whereby armchair 'detectives and analysers' can individually and collectively contribute knowledge in real time. The days of solely relying on 'others' to spoon feed us is long gone. Right here and now we have dozens of members contributing some very factual information and graphics. Your and my presence on this forum is proof of that quest for information
Welcome the future.
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No we don't. This is where 21st Century style communication enters. PPRuNe, and others, fill a void whereby armchair 'detectives and analysers' can individually and collectively contribute knowledge in real time. The days of solely relying on 'others' to spoon feed us is long gone. Right here and now we have dozens of members contributing some very factual information and graphics. Your and my presence on this forum is proof of that quest for information
Welcome the future.
Welcome the future.
I may have missed the crash where Pprune armchair experts got there first, but I don't remember one.....
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Still missing update 7
Based on the photos that i have seen thus far:
Missing - outside view, major components - assuming that the section before the wing was destroyed in the post crash fire,
a. rudder (and associated GFRP 'strip'),
b. box structure of the vertical tail (VS),
c. any trace of the (below cabin floor) aft cargo hold from forward of that aft pax door to probably 1 or 2 frames forward of the large cargo door,
d. part of the left hand upper panel with windows of above the aft cargo hold (ergo, above cabin floor). I have noted the right hand panel as a 'probable' (in my definition).
Note on the tail cone "soot" views ... I would certainly change that into "staining" ... for a number of reasons (clean surfaces inside and out, minimal staining inside the tail cone components - even less than visible on a number of photos of the plane from the last 2 years). Origin of stains (next those from normal operations) could come from the remaining fuel in the broken APU fuel line (which runs along left hand fuselage side), perhaps additional stains (maybe soot) if the APU oil tank cracked, but these effects have been minimal.
I am working on some 3D reconstructions. What is striking is how many photos you need to get some certainty. The photos in general are of low resolution. And when you get a shot from another angle, it can make quite a difference.
My impression is that i can reconstruct at least one section segment over the full 360.
So photos of the missing components of any kind are welcome. And even better resolution pictures of the known items. Thanks to all the posters providing them :-)
Next to this i am interested in if the flight plan and cargo manifest have been published. Till now i have only seen passenger bags which appear to be only the smaller ones (hand luggage?). No big suitcases or anything that looks like cargo. The inside parts of the cargo holds appear pristine like the rest.
Missing - outside view, major components - assuming that the section before the wing was destroyed in the post crash fire,
a. rudder (and associated GFRP 'strip'),
b. box structure of the vertical tail (VS),
c. any trace of the (below cabin floor) aft cargo hold from forward of that aft pax door to probably 1 or 2 frames forward of the large cargo door,
d. part of the left hand upper panel with windows of above the aft cargo hold (ergo, above cabin floor). I have noted the right hand panel as a 'probable' (in my definition).
Note on the tail cone "soot" views ... I would certainly change that into "staining" ... for a number of reasons (clean surfaces inside and out, minimal staining inside the tail cone components - even less than visible on a number of photos of the plane from the last 2 years). Origin of stains (next those from normal operations) could come from the remaining fuel in the broken APU fuel line (which runs along left hand fuselage side), perhaps additional stains (maybe soot) if the APU oil tank cracked, but these effects have been minimal.
I am working on some 3D reconstructions. What is striking is how many photos you need to get some certainty. The photos in general are of low resolution. And when you get a shot from another angle, it can make quite a difference.
My impression is that i can reconstruct at least one section segment over the full 360.
So photos of the missing components of any kind are welcome. And even better resolution pictures of the known items. Thanks to all the posters providing them :-)
Next to this i am interested in if the flight plan and cargo manifest have been published. Till now i have only seen passenger bags which appear to be only the smaller ones (hand luggage?). No big suitcases or anything that looks like cargo. The inside parts of the cargo holds appear pristine like the rest.
Last edited by A0283; 9th Nov 2015 at 12:23.