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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 7th Nov 2015, 08:07
  #1561 (permalink)  
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Are we sure that an explosive decompression has an explosive sound? Having experienced bang chambers I don't recall particularly loud noises. Of course that could be a function of scale. It can also be a function of the low speed of sound at low pressures. Mind you, I have not experienced a bang from 8,000 feet.

Regarding passenger unaccompanied baggage. I submit that this is a regular event. Consider how often your luggage fails to arrive with you? It usually arrives a day or more later.

Now it is clearly impossible for a passenger to plan this but not impossible for someone to tamper with it while it is air side. Remember the nickname of Thiefrow years ago?
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 08:18
  #1562 (permalink)  
 
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It would appear you most certainly can, and with a simple bridge camera, with the aircraft allegedly at 38,000:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nu18uDHzMzA

How does this support or dispel the YouTube video of the incident?
Neither I'd suggest, several posters with more expertise than me in video editing have pointed out that the pattern of movement in the Isis videos is strange and advanced the opinion that the video(s) is a composite and a poor one at that.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 08:23
  #1563 (permalink)  
 
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https://youtube.com/watch?v=Fi1_1l7M8FA

Should sound something like this, even if a charge was used.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 08:26
  #1564 (permalink)  
 
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Pontius Navigator mentioned unaccompanied baggage turning up a day or 2 later.


This is a regular occurrence, known as rush bags they undergo additional security measures before being carried, supposedly. I am confident in taking these from UK airports down route you have to trust the rules are being followed and your company security people have done their homework on your destination airport.

Last edited by Council Van; 7th Nov 2015 at 08:41.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 08:32
  #1565 (permalink)  
 
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Regarding the seating plan as depicted in post #1496 by Etud lAvia and accompanying comment;


In a previously posted image of a group of three seats, which was a still taken from a Russian video of the crash site, it appeared that only the seat to the furthest left (if facing forward) of the group was affected by multiple small holes in the seat back.


Were this to be the group DEF in row 37, to the rear of the cabin and just forward of the lavatories &c, it would only be this seat, marked in yellow (D37) whose back section would be directly exposed to the area aft of the seats, as the other two in the group have seats behind them (row 38).


Might this be relevant, considering the similar appearing damage to the R4 door top panel?

http://avia.pro/sites/default/files/...rbus_a3211.jpg


NB Regarding Kulverstukas' remark that this is a Ural airlines plan - it was from the article first linked to in your post, but that isn't your fault if the website has used the wrong image - does anyone have a seating plan for the airliner in question? Thank you.

Last edited by susier; 7th Nov 2015 at 09:05. Reason: Replace large picture with link and reply to Kulver.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 08:44
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for what its worth....and slightly off topic
Paragraph right at the end of this D.Telegraph article saying that KLM is now only accepting hand luggage on flights out of Cairo.
British flights grounded after Sharm airport CCTV showed security lapses - Telegraph
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 08:49
  #1567 (permalink)  
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Kopit, you don't even need that. My old video camera had a x700 zoom and a cheap Kodak has x16 optical and I know not what digital.

A key element in long distance photography is ambient light and visibility. If there is no atmospheric dust then light conditions would be excellent. I don't know what conditions are like there. I know it can vary from heavy dust to Crystal clear. Looking at the photos it looks more likely the latter.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 08:53
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This seating plan is from Ural Airlines not Metrojet/Kolavia. (susier, it's why I don't post it here yesterday, because I trying to check and main reason for doubt was that I read from guy flying at this plane recently that is has only two loo in rear)

You can check image link even...

Last edited by Kulverstukas; 7th Nov 2015 at 09:28.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 08:54
  #1569 (permalink)  
 
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Sharm el-Sheikh flight from Stansted dodged missile in August

Security checks are obviously an issue, but overall security in the Sinai too. It's a war zone, therefore hazardous, even if in that very incident the A/C wasn't targeted by the Egyptian miltary.

Sharm el-Sheikh flight from Stansted dodged missile in August | UK news | The Guardian

Last edited by ettore; 7th Nov 2015 at 08:56. Reason: typo
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 09:11
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@sopwithnz

I suggest that you give up on your quest to validate the said video(s). Firstly, the aircraft was flying in a NNW'ly direction and the sun was rising in the east. The lighting is all wrong; it should becoming from the right and below.

There is no need to go into any of the other problems - just accept that it is not "exemplar".
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 09:13
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Right place at the right time

@kokpit: videoing an aircraft 6 miles up is one thing. Positioning yourself directly underneath said aircraft just as a planted bomb explodes so you can video it is quite another.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 09:14
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If the recording channels have sufficient bandwidth such that the rise time of the received signal isn't characterised by limited channel response, the difference between a 'pyrotechnic' and decompression event will be very clear.

From all the discussion here, I didn't see anything clear about the separation of the rudder and HS. Is it possible for aerodynamic loads alone to shear these off if at an adverse attitude to airflow?

Pax only.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 09:14
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Eh, i politely want to remind that even if it were any explosion, it didn't give us the cause of the crash, only the initial event.
For example, this event could not lead to the loss of the aircraft itself, but, trigger some structural failure that would not occur on another vessel. Weakened tail theories?
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 09:19
  #1574 (permalink)  
 
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Alleged ISIS video

Quick point re this - the alleged ISIS video shows what appears to be an explosion at the centre fuel tank followed by a trail of black smoke as the plane flies on with the tail still attached (no sign of any large parts detaching from aircraft). The VS section debris on the ground shows no sign of the heavy sooting I would expect if the video were genuine.

I'm still more inclined to it being video game footage filmed from a flat screen tv with a mobile phone - game graphics really are that good these days.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 09:36
  #1575 (permalink)  
 
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For question about ACT fitted, it was fitted on 3 of 321 planes in their fleet

http://cdn.aviaforum.ru/images/2015/...5011655409.png

http://aviaforum.ru/attachments/uplo...29-png.500349/
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 09:44
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With all this speculation over checked baggage security or lack of, are we going to see an increase in airlines refusing to carry hold baggage or increasing the passenger fares to cover additional security checks for hold baggage.
We have all experienced the increased delays and such with carry on bags so I assume that now that the hold bag security is in doubt it would be a natural progression.
What level of security is hold baggage subjected to normally? By this I mean at the likes of LHR and most European departures. I'm assuming that it is at least X-rayed.
I know that I have had my hold luggage opened on a regular basis in the US but not that I know of in Europe.
I'm also aware of the lax hold bags security in a lot of shall we say non western airports.
If this is proven to be a bomb concealed in hold baggage flying will really become more of a heartache than presently.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 09:46
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Another sad picture...

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Old 7th Nov 2015, 09:48
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Video by ISIS

I have seen many videos that look clearly fake whilst in fact they are instead genuine. Poor quality and in some cases inflated post video enhancements can confuse us, nobody has officially confirmed that the ISIS video of this incident is 100% fake. Many experts have said that it is the wrong aircraft type, which is not the case in my opinion: I see the correct aircraft type and the location of explosion on aircraft seems to coincide with latest developments from the investigation Teams and info passed to governments by intelligence agencies, e.g. burnt bodies sitting at the rear, explosive device in hold etc.
Do you remember the ATR72 crash video in Taiwan?... this video also looked fake for various reasons but it is 100% genuine. Unprofessional but genuine.
Definitely the ISIS video is very badly made, it is unprofessional and possibly full of post-video editing enhancements but the video itself might contain the "artificially enhanced" images of this incident. Previous posts have explained why video timing could be an easy win for those on the ground.
The fact remains that if we combine the ISIS video with the recent developments it is too much of a coincidence that everything seems to match. A very unprofessional video does not mean fake. It could easily be a genuine video that has been very badly edited for propaganda purposes.
Those who made the video also stated that "they 'brought down' the plane on the first anniversary of the Sinai group's signed allegiance to Isis/Daesh" which cannot be another coincidence as the anniversary date seems to be in fact correct.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 09:48
  #1579 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by kokpit
Thanks Pontius Navigator. I realise that video's have a hellish zoom, but initially I was really sceptical that someone could video an aircraft at cruise altitude from the ground.

This was one of my reasons for doubting the 'video of the event'.

I was discounting any electronic zoom, as that typically degrades the end result too much, but the camera in the example has a 500 optical zoom.

However, it seems it certainly can be done, but judging by the very small number of results through Google, I suspect it isn't something that is easy or often brings about the desired results.
I played with this last evening. Using a 6 inch telescope, I can see airliners flying at cruise altitude 30-40 miles away, in better quality than the alleged ISIS video. I can even take pictures directly through the eyepiece using a cell phone. The tricky part is tracking the aircraft, since, at that zoom level, they cross the field of view in mere seconds, especially if they are flying perpendicular to line of sight. And taking pictures would require either a helper or some way to hold the phone/camera in place.

I'll try the same tomorrow with a DSLR camera and a camera-telescope adapter.
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Old 7th Nov 2015, 09:55
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oldchina wrote:
Lessors are known to be very strict when it comes to return conditions. They want it back in at least as good condition as when it went out.

Edit - the following rant is NOT directed at the lessor of this AC - ILFC/Aercap are in my experience one of the better lessors in the business.


AC Lessors are not in the airplane business, they are in the money business. They just happen to get their money from aircraft.
Lessors only want one thing, that their asset is earning revenue for them.

If there will be a gap between end of lease with one customer, and start with another, then indeed they can be very picky over the state of the AC and its records on return. If the Lessor can find fault with the AC or records then it means they are still getting rent and very lucrative penalty payments from the lessee until the aircraft is up to spec.

On the other hand, if the lessee is a bankrupt airline then the lessor wants their asset back, they will just take it. Or if the lessor has a customer waiting for the AC, they will attempt to handle their requirements as quickly and cheaply as possible. They will try to palm off any old on to the new lessee, to get the asset earning rent again. When leasing out an AC the lessor will indeed only do the absolute bare minimum required, using the cheapest maintenance facilities and cheapest parts. Maintenance standards mean nothing to them, its all about stamps on paper to show legal compliance. If the aircraft does crash, the airline takes the rap, and the lessor gets a big fat insurance cheque for the value of the lost asset and lost future rent.

I personally don't believe in the structural failure hypothesis for this incident (my money is on a small device in the rear cargo hold, setting off the additional centre tank as a fuel/air bomb, ripping apart the fuselage aft of the wing, but lets see what the investigation finds). But please, never allow yourself to believe that an aircraft lessor has a safety oriented mindset anything like we Airline Professionals have.

Last edited by GroundedSpanner; 7th Nov 2015 at 11:58. Reason: Remove libel / slander
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