BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

[Mesoman]

Not conclusive

"He said the explosion would not be secondary to engine failure, which would remove the assumption of the accident."

This does not remove the possibility of an accident. For example, a fuel tank explosion like TWA800 need not be related to an engine failure.

It sounds like a probable fact that the explosion was not preceded by abnormal readings, but that fact is leading to an inappropriate inference of a non-accidental cause.

BTW... I used Google Chrome to translate the web page from French to English, so the above quote is a result of an automatic translation. Chrome is very handy for this purpose - in my case, it put up a question above the page asking if I wanted it translated.

[Nightingale14]

Anyone here interested in Black Box analysis, who does not already own it, might be interested in purchasing a copy of Beyond the Black Box by George Bibel. In it he describes how modern explosives detonate (send shock waves throughout the plane) so that they generate distinctive patterns of damage which are readily identified by experienced flight accident investigators.

[WNTT]

It would be interesting if everyone who is convinced about a bomb could share their thoughts on the following:

1. The damaged vertical stabilizer.
2. The detached horizontal stabilizers.
3. The 25 seconds of FR24 data transmitted after the event.
4. The damages to the tail section with separated APU compartment.

My thoughts are that a bomb in the aft cargo bay didn’t result in the rear fuselage/tail becoming structurally detached straight away, but large sections of the rear fuselage where free / released in the jet stream and impacted with the tail resulting in the detachment/damage of the APU, HS, VS, and tail (this is swept backwards). Then finally in the detachment of the tail, maybe from ‘flapping’ around in the jet stream.

[Kulverstukas]

This comes after the official statement that stated there was no data on either recorder.

No, there was official statement that FDR was stopped before event and that CVR is damaged and will take some time to read. There was also "it is possible that CVR will not contain moment of event too" phrase in official statement, not that there WAS no data.

[22/04]

I am beginning to think that some people know a lot more than we are being told now.

Reluctantly believing there is evidence of a bomb which is known but not released.

We have seen (and being trying to armchair investigate) lots of pictures but nothing from the investigating team- quite unlike the Germanwings situation or the investigation into the crashed helicopter here in the UK.

Probably in the rear cargo hold and involved the centre fuel tank.

But I still think the DAISH video is a fake- aircraft looks more like say a king air at the start that a 321

[AlphaZuluRomeo]

Originally Posted by RTM Boy

As EZY9022 and TCX270 are on approach to LCA, it's amazing that LCA can handle all the unscheduled arrivals, but SSH apparently can't. Funny that. Where will TOM898 end up..?

LCA too.

There was also TCX2706 that made a U-turn over the Albanian-greek border, and is now almost back at Manchester.

[MrSnuggles]

Linked article INFO FRANCE 2. Crash dans le Sinaï*: l'explosion n'était pas d'origine accidentelle, indiquent les boîtes noires :

nterrogée par l'AFP, une source proche du dossier indique qu'une des boîtes noires confirme le caractère "brutal, soudain" de l'événement. "Tout est normal, absolument normal pendant le vol, et brutalement plus rien", a déclaré cette source. "Cela va dans le sens de la soudaineté, du caractère immédiat, de l'événement", a-t-elle ajouté, alors que les deux boîtes noires, celle des paramètres de vol et celle contenant les conversations de l'équipage, ont été analysées.

My translation:
"Questioned by AFP, a source with insight* claims that one of the black boxes confirms the idea of a "brutal and sudden" event. "Everything is normal, absolutely normal during the flight and suddenly nothing", said this source. "This is where the feeling of abruptness, an immediate event, sets in", said the source even though** both the black boxes, with their flight parametres and voice recordings are still being analysed."

*something like "close to the investigation" or "with access to the information" - proche = closeby, dossier = dossier

**meanwhile/during, "still in the process of"

[oleostrut]

"No, there was official statement that FDR was stopped before event and that CVR is damaged and will take some time to read. There was also "it is possible that CVR will not contain moment of event too" phrase in official statement, not that there WAS no data."

The official statements posted here indicated there was no data after the event. All normal readings, then everything stopped.

I did not imply the recorders were blank, but that they recorded nothing associated with the event, they just stopped at that point.

[puffyflyer]

Devils advocate

Wreckage....

Tail is totally seperate...a distinctly "unzipped" look about it across the top of the fuselage...majority of the rudder and at least one stabiliser AWOL...what has been found landed right way up apart from the very end part with the APU that seems to be on its side with APU doors open

Fuselage & wings.....pretty much together, burned wings and middle/aft fuselage...but upside down

Things that jump out as "erm...what the heck?"

Luggage...bearing in mind the fuselage is burned around 66% of its length, there is alot of intact and soot free luggage...with zipped cases still zipped up and no real "crash/bash/burn" damage

Seats...again...bearing in mind the amount of fuselage lost to fire...which probably happened upon impact due to the plane having loaded tanks....on the whole the seats are not in too bad shape...bloodied, dusty, torn...but nothing more than would be expected after a crash

Bodies...autopy results pointing at burns...well there was a fire, so bodies would be burned....BUT...so far no reports of sooting in the lungs, which would be the case in the inflight fire scenario...people breathing in soot, sits on lungs and they succumb....no confirmed lung sooting as yet.....so til that is confirmed, we are likely looking at post impact with ground fire and not midair fire

Historical damage...the plane had a 3 month repair period after a severe tailstrike in Cairo 2001...what do we KNOW about that repair, who did it, were they qualified etc (remember JAL123 had her tail repaired by Boeing in Haneda in 1978 only for that "official" repair to fail in 1985) so an "official" repair is by no means a good repair

Internals....jackscrew etc....going back to the tailstrike...is it possible that during the strike repair that damage was overlooked/missed...of course it is, engineers are only human and can easily miss things that they are not actually looking for

China Airlines 611...she had nicotine stains for years on her tail after the tailstrike repair, she was serviced/maintained/resprayed...no-one questions where those nicotine stains came from...they were missed and as it turned out, they might have saved lives had they been noticed and investigated

Could this be foul play...well yes...but by now and with the amount of media scrutiny, let alone political scrutiny, any trace of explosive residue found would be screaming across every headline from here to mars by now...(remember TWA800...FBI spokesman.."it was a missile"...then they calmed down, stopped jumping to conclusions and discovered it was a tiny design flaw)

Egyptian investigations...can we really get the truth....I don't know...EgyptAir 990 showed tht they really cannot cope well with taking the blame...and now we have a possible scenario of blame plus loss of tourism...with the best will in the world they stand to lose massively if this really was foul play,,,so for now, jury is out til they can prove to be impartial

So...what are we left with....a Rubik's cube of a plane mystery, 224 people snuffed out before their time.....my money, not that its worth alot...still goes with that tailstrike...that tail and the repair and the fact the plane was a charter baby always chopping and changing operators which will inevitably mean some maintenance records accidently go walkies and a tailstrike in 2001 that no-one really knows much about (which would be my interpretation of the airline's "external" impact cos they did not use the plane back then)

These poor people suffered a similar event to that of JAL 123 and China 611 in that a poor repair several years before caught up with them and the only explosion was the explosive decompression when that tail went...and the toddler was likely in the back toilet having a nappy change cos babies usually poo when the plane is taking off...seriously, they do

[Bertie Bonkers]

Originally Posted by oleostrut

"06/11/2015 18:11 BREAKING French media claims black box data confirms Metrojet A321 was bombed over Sinai
The black boxes of the aircraft made it possible to clearly hear the sound of an explosion during the flight, said Friday, November 6th an investigator to France2."

This comes after the official statement that stated there was no data on either recorder.

But it might explain Russia's flight cancellations into the area.

Though one man's 'gunshot' is another man's 'cricket bat hitting a toilet door', as debated at length in court during the trial of Oscar Pistorius.

[oldchina]

22/04

"I am beginning to think that some people know a lot more than we are being told now"

Bravo! Eureka!
Someone has seen the light.
You private detectives have no right to be told anything!
The truth will come out in due course. In the meantime the investigators will do their work.

[Andy Furlong]

Although this forum generates a lot of guesswork when accidents occur, there are people, like me, who find all theories fascinating. As someone once said: 'Suffer fools gladly because sometimes they're right'.

[andrasz]

@AVR4000

On the first (and only) video screencap we have of the left HS it is very clearly visible that the upper composite skin failed after it was bent up 90 degrees against the fuselage. If the HS support structure failed first, the entire HS would have parted in one piece as it is a very strong component.

The fact that it did not indicates that the damage was due to aerodynamic loads after the tail separated.

The reason it had to happen after separation is that had the aircraft entered an attitude that would snap the HS off the wings would have snapped too. All this talk about whether the jackscrew is visible on the photo or not is pretty meaningless in this context.

This implies that the structural disintegration started in front of the tail, somewhere in the rear fuselage. A structural failure of a well placed bomb would produce EXACTLY the same symptoms. The only way to tell for certain is to find components with clear explosion damage. I'm sure IF there are any traces, the investigators now by now (as do the involved governments). However the lack of any formal announcement puts this into doubt, everyone is talking about 'possibly' or 'likely' which to me either means that they themselves have no clue, or the Egyptians who are leading the investigation do not want to admit it.

[Kulverstukas]

If this in fact was a bomb, as it seems its the direction its going now, how safe are other airports such as Turkey, Morocco and many others in 3.rd world countries?

If also take in account that a lot of ISIS people confirmed as GB, France and other "First World" born and raised, how safe are other airports?

[funfly]

Andy Furlong

[Kulverstukas]

or the Egyptians who are leading the investigation do not want to admit it.

EMERCOM head said today that samples of all a/c parts was collected and sent to RF for examination of explosive contamination. So Egyptians has no chance to fool anybody...

[The Sultan]

FDR's

One common misperception is that FDR's record real time. Before digital they may have, but now the data supplier or the actual recorder buffers the data before writing it to memory. I have heard as long as the last two minutes can be lost. New regs trying to reduce this feature to a few seconds.

The Sultan

[sooty655]

Originally Posted by Syntax Error

Of course it is not politically correct to imply that the airport have employed 50% of their staff that could be likely recruitment tools for ISIS.

Since many of ISIS recruits have been western converts, it is not only not politically correct, it is also just plain not correct.

[JulioLS]

HS ripped off

Originally Posted by WNTT

My thoughts are that a bomb in the aft cargo bay didn’t result in the rear fuselage/tail becoming structurally detached straight away, but large sections of the rear fuselage where free / released in the jet stream and impacted with the tail resulting in the detachment/damage of the APU, HS, VS, and tail (this is swept backwards). Then finally in the detachment of the tail, maybe from ‘flapping’ around in the jet stream.

No evidence of contact damage on the HS... and the rudder yet to be shown.

Key point is that the HS seems sheered off without cany contact...

Puzzling I know.... but it does not support your theory.

[oldoberon]

Originally Posted by AVR4000

It would be interesting if everyone who is convinced about a bomb could share their thoughts on the following:

1. The damaged vertical stabilizer.
2. The detached horizontal stabilizers.
3. The 25 seconds of FR24 data transmitted after the event.
4. The damages to the tail section with separated APU compartment.

I have a hard time to see how the tail section can be so damaged if a bomb detached it. Earlier bombings such as the destruction of a JAT DC-9 clearly shows that a tail section remains more or less intact if it separates due to an explosion in the cabin or cargo hold.

The damages to the tail is a strong indicator that something happened there and until images prove otherwise, the rear pressure bulkhead and/or stabilizer assembly continues to create questions.

A detached tail section (if we assume the fuselage broke apart behind the wings and in front of the rear cabin doors) would fall more or less in one piece with the stabilizers still attached.

It is also worth to mention the simple fact that different groups has been claiming responsibility for bombs even if the cause is something else. If there is an official statement from the investigation team about damages caused by a bomb blast, then there is little doubt but I have a strong suspicion that bomb speculations are a diversion from the true cause of the accident.

Edit: It is normal that a "bang" is heard on the CVR and I wouldn't pay too much attention to "breaking news" unless there is press conference with the investigative team where it is stated without a doubt that "analysis of the sound on the CVR confirm that it was an explosion rather than structural failure".

I'll have a go at that for you, two scenarios for a bomb which converge.

a) Bomb in rear baggage hold, large chunk of LH side fuselage hit LH HS sheering it off, also starts centre tank fire - stop

B) bomb in galley- ruptures RPB forces HS full down (vertical), LH HS sheers externally. HS screw jack assembly forced through top skin causing 2/3rd of VS to break away. RH HS and stump of LH VS now "flapping " around, then departs rearwards and upwards forcing the section of HS inside HS compartment downwards, this causes floor and skin of HS compartment to break away.

The apu may have detached as a result of the initial galley blast or as a result of the airflow once the HS comp ceased to exist, but it seems to have been undamaged in the air

The remaining rear section now has zero structural strength the top starts to "sag" putting stress on joints further fwd which coupled with the effect of a bomb in either location cause it to snap off just fwd of the rear doors. Time taken for total disintegration single figure seconds.

My only problem is the fire, A) would probably cause it immediately B) it would have to be caused by leakage as plane broke up and sparks from cables.

Re FR24 simple even when back end breaking up engines still powering front end so data continues to be transmitted albeit it may be dodgy due to rapid erratic movements of plane.