BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

[Plastic787]

We were "Able to down" is an interesting turn of phrase because it covers all bases, doesn't it? It could even cover an act of God.

I think we all heard "I'm not telling you" in the playground as a child. This is strikingly similar in my opinion. All it is is just psychological warfare from ISIS and doesn't necessarily follow that they had anything to do with it at all.

[Ruimte Aap]

Not trusting the video posted earlier of a burning aeroplane, and reading someone’s claim it to be an old video of 2003 anyway, I searched for proof only to find this: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China_Airlines_Flight_611 link.
It seems remaining damage from a badly repaired tail strike can cause a similar situation, even after many years.

[Basil]

Cazalet33, re the kid's little automatic, about 35 years ago a toy muzzle loading pistol was taken from our elder son by security at a US airport.
They kindly gave it to the captain who returned it on arrival.
S1 thought it was great as it gave street cred to his gun.

As you say, wouldn't carry one of those around now.

[lowca]

Something definitely does not sum up.

Girl's body found 20 miles from wreckage. We are assuming she was taken to the aft loo. Or maybe her parents were not sitting 9DEF as in pax list? If I remember, there were free seats here and there? Maybe they exchanged places with some friends?

Anyway, girl's body is found 20 miles from main wreckage.

According to FR24 data, plane lost control and dived almost vertically. Between 'accident' at 4:13 UTC and the actual crash airplane travelled (vs ground) no more then few miles.

Yet some 10-15 miles earlier, there was a hole big enough to allow little girl to fall off the plane. And still hole was so small/untetectable, and structure of plane so complete, that it's flight was undisturbed (as FR24 suggest).

I didn't notice that anybody confirmed the exact timestamp that FDR recordings stop - was it 4:13 UTC (when plane started to behave abnormally) ? Or was it earlier?

If FDR stops at the same moment as FR24 data shows incident, then we have 'all is OK' from FDR till the end. So I cannot imagine any way that girl may be ejected out of plane before.

It may mean that FDR stops (how much time?) before FR24 drop. So there has happened something so severe in the aft section, that cut the transmit lines to FDR and CVR, opened hole big enough to force off girl - and still has virtually none impact on plane ability to fly undisturbed, at least for some miles.

I cannot sum this up.

[EternalNY1]

"Brought down" is an interesting turn of phrase because it covers all bases, doesn't it? It could even cover an act of God.

The problem is they released this immediately after the incident and this was from a wing of ISIS that only has released information in the past that has been verified as being true.

Also, all this confirmation from governments saying they overhead "chatter" and were warning other countries lends credibility to this.

[oleostrut]

Photo of similar tailstrike

This is the kind of damage from a tailstrike. Not the same airplane, but supposedly same model

[StickMonkey3]

"brought down" is just an attempt to garner publicity among the faithful.
If they'd really done it, they would be clear on how they'd downed it.

[Pontius Navigator]

Security

Just seen on BBC News two women go through security at SSH. First was freaked while still wearing a jacket. Second, carrying a babe wrapped in blanket also searched but no attempt to examine blanket.

Saw security man "watching" luggage scanner. He was sitting well back and reclining back as well, model of an alert guard.

[Kulverstukas]

"The problem is they released this immediately after the incident "

At the second day is immediate?

[edmundronald]

With a lead article on CNN reporting a "consensus about a bomb in the hold", it seems that there is a political will to use the unfortunate deceased in this crash to make Putin domestically pay the price of his intervention in Syria, and give ISIL ideas, if they don't yet have them. "Chatter" is now presented as proof. It's the old story of "we know, but we cannot tell you because the proof needs to be kept secret..."

Emerging consensus: bomb in hold downed Russian plane - CNN.com

As for me, I'm just a humble engineer SLF, and I will be avoiding antique cycle-fatigued A321 airframes in the future, especially those which might have seen unreported tailstrikes and heavy landings. I hope someone will be smart enough to get an inspection régime going. One set of corpses is more than enough.

Edmund

[funfly]

this website is populated by idiots

Why do some posters have to say things like this about other people?
I think you will find that virtually all the posts (after moderation) are quite interesting and most of us are intelligent enough to make our own minds up.
A thread of this importance is bound to attract those who may not be 'professional' pilots but most will have some sort of interest and involvement in flying - and often different viewpoints.
I do think the mods do a good job in threads like this so I suggest all of us interested enough to contribute to this thread carry on and ignore derogatory remarks by some who think only they have the right to post.

[Pontius Navigator]

Originally Posted by edmundronald

With a lead article on CNN reporting a "consensus about a bomb in the hold", it seems that there is a political will to use the unfortunate deceased in this crash to make Putin domestically pay the price of his intervention in Syria, and give ISIL ideas, if they don't yet have them. "Chatter" is now presented as proof.
Edmund

All the CNN article does is repeats the BBC. It is a media self-confirming merry go round with ever more credible news agencies repeating the original report thus lending authority to the original report. The original source remains UK communications monitoring.

While accepting the validity of this single source there has yet to be discovery of physical confirmation AFAIK.

PS

Latest hardening of cause is "Strong suspicion"

[Blake777]

Very few photos of the seats are available, with good reason. No doubt many are burnt/destroyed, or in distressing condition. However, there are a few around.

I am posting the pic below, reported to be from the cabin rear. Please note that out of respect I have changed the colouring to black and white, which makes it harder to study.

There are definite shrapnel holes passing through the seat on the right of the picture. I will leave you all to surmise whether from front, back, or both directions - my observation is that at least some have gone through from the rear of the seat. This backs up reports that passengers to the rear of the cabin were "peppered with shrapnel".

Proof of nothing on its own as this may have resulted from either disintegration of the airframe or from explosive device. The salient point is that investigators will no doubt have many more seats for examination which will assist with pointing to an explosive device or otherwise. Most of the seats have been unavailable to the press to photograph. On top of any other evidence, this, along with the condition of those autopsied, combines with the airframe damage and any terrorist communication chatter picked up to suggest that the cause is no doubt reasonably clear to investigators already.

I therefore view the apparent "hysteria" over flights over Sinai and transport of luggage or passengers in and out of Sharm as well founded. Still only "looks like a duck", and obviously my opinion only.

https://flic.kr/ps/35XV77

[WNTT]

Very few photos of the seats are available, with good reason. No doubt many are burnt/destroyed, or in distressing condition. However, there are a few around.

quite a few close ups of seats towards the end of the video here;

https://youtu.be/yQCVLAlkYVE

it seems that there is limited shrapnel or burn damage to them (not sure where they came from in the plane), the most striking thing is that these seats seem to be in the middle of nowhere and spread out like the plane was shedding them over time.

What is the latest on the size/extent of the debris field if any, and locations of key items? (VS, HS)

[flightradar]

I can see 3 Monarch flights heading towards SSH at the moment on FL24. Presumably they are empty and are going take pax back?

4 now... they are avoiding Siani and heading in via Cairo.

Strangley, SSH arrivals does not list these aircraft...

SSH ARRIVALS Date: Fri 06-Nov-2015 Time Period:
Departures Arrivals Airport: (SSH) Sharm El Sheikh Airport Sharm el Sheikh, EG Flight Carrier Origin Arrival Status GM* 3100 Germania Flug (ZRH) Zurich 12:10 PM Cancelled RJ 6307 Royal Jordanian (AMM) Amman 1:00 PM Scheduled MS 305 EgyptAir (CAI) Cairo 1:45 PM Landed R2 5902 ORENAIR (DME) Moscow 2:25 PM En Route R2 5912 ORENAIR (SVO) Moscow 2:35 PM En Route MS 307 EgyptAir (CAI) Cairo 2:45 PM Landed DX 480 Danish Air (CPH) Copenhagen 2:50 PM Scheduled EDW 140 Edelweiss Air (ZRH) Zurich 2:50 PM En Route LX 8140 ^ SWISS (ZRH) Zurich 2:50 PM En Route

Seems like someone is blocking out the flights when descent below FL100 as they then disapear.

[rog747]

pax seats scorched?

i posted this yesterday re burnt seats

http://www.pprune.org/9170242-post1096.html sorry i cannot find the video though


also in the RT video in above post https://youtu.be/yQCVLAlkYVE
the pairs of 3 seats note the rear row is an exit row as the tray tables are stored in the armrests - they may come from door 3L/R

these seats are not the ones i saw on the RT news yesterday that are scorched

[mach411]

With respect to the position the toddler was found, I think RYFQB solved the mystery in post #1359. When the body was found, it appears that according to TASS the most recent search area completed was 33 square kilometres. 33 kilometres is 20.51 miles, so the most likely explanation is the information was misreported as direct distance of 20 miles from the main crash site.

Given the 33 km^2 area, if we assume a circle, the body was actually found no more than 3.24 km away from the main crash site.

[A0283]

Still missing - update5

We are now getting better images of especially seats. Till now i have not seen anything - holes, fragmentation, fragments - that point to an explosion of the intentional kind. In fact, the more you see the more you are surprised how clean it all looks. Something which i posted before and also surprises other posters.
I do not know where people see scorching on the seats. I see a number of stains but there are multiple other explanations for them.
We also see Russian searchers checking the seats, and either moving or turning them. So as stated earlier. Interpretation of photos has to include this.

The rudder and rest of the vertical stabilizer are still missing as far as i know. Some suggest that everything has been found. But i do not know which source is the primairy publication channel. Nor have i heard any statements of the Egyptian leaders of the investigation.

So, still a lot of questions.

[andrasz]

ground appears sufficiently hard

This kind of compacted gravel desert terrain is very firm, driving over it feels like being on asphalt. Below the top 1-2 cm loose gravel the substrate consists of mud consolidated gravel, almost as hard as concrete (unless wet after a rare rainfall). Very clearly only the engines have managed to penetrate it to any significant depth.

[WNTT]

the pairs of 3 seats note the rear row is an exit row as the tray tables are stored in the armrests - they may come from door 3L/R

good point on the exit row (which one is to be determined), isn't row 9 (toddlers location if seated) around an exit? from the location of the outer tray table in the arm rest aren't these from the right side of the plane (D, E, F)?

The structure under the two pairs of three that supports them is pretty bulky and how that came detached (not just the chairs by themselves) seems suspicious.