BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR
Join Date: Dec 2013
Location: NN11
Posts: 13
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
A collection of 33 mostly high resolution structural images from a Greek site:
http://www.newsit.gr/files/Image/201...rash_egypt.JPG
http://www.newsit.gr/files/Image/201...ash_egypt1.JPG
...
http://www.newsit.gr/files/Image/201...sh_egypt32.JPG
Also:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-t9OtZFnYk
http://www.newsit.gr/files/Image/201...rash_egypt.JPG
http://www.newsit.gr/files/Image/201...ash_egypt1.JPG
...
http://www.newsit.gr/files/Image/201...sh_egypt32.JPG
Also:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A-t9OtZFnYk
Search extended to 30 square Km tomorrow
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
RBF and FDMII, quite agree nothing is certain from looking at a limited number of pictures showing less than they might.
Join Date: Apr 2013
Location: New Jersey USA
Age: 66
Posts: 49
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Factors beyond Aviation
1. Though it seems that most here have discounted the possibility of a surface-to-air missile strike, I want to underline that it is extremely unlikely. To covertly deploy the necessary equipment, crew and logistics in the Sinai, sufficient to strike an airliner at cruise altitude, would be a very tough undertaking. To single out a Russian flight among the substantial air traffic over the Sinai would be more difficult still. And as someone already observed, Israel likely would have detected and reported a SAM launch.
2. Major Russian air carriers seem to (generally) operate in accordance with international safety standards. However, the post-2000 record of smaller operators in the Russian Federation is scary.
3. The political effect of this crash may be more potent than any aviation incident in Russian political history.
3a. If investigation discloses evidence that deficiencies in quality and government oversight contributed to the crash, this will (I predict) strike a particularly raw nerve among the Russian people, and their confidence that government (or any institution at all) is protecting them. Russians often suffer from avoidable calamities (deadly hospital fires, to give one example) that would be really shocking in more prosperous countries.
Egypt is an enormously popular vacation spot for Russians. The list of countries you can easily enter on a Russian passport is a short one, and most of those are nobody's idea of a vacation spot. Accordingly, millions of Russians can easily visualize their own family as one of those returning on the doomed flight from a sunny holiday. My personal observation is that in Russian culture, events like this tend to be received rather more sentimentally and less analytically than in the West ... this one really hurts.
3b. If investigation discloses that a smuggled IED caused the crash, then this will react with Russia's abrupt initiation of attacks in Syria. I'm sure most Russians didn't see the Syria campaign coming, and there were no crowds on the streets in Moscow demanding the Kremlin to do such a thing.
Part of the political function of the Syrian campaign is to distract the populace from the dead-end of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. If you recall Orwell's "two minutes hate," and the instantaneous switch between war with Eurasia and war with Eastasia, you will have some picture of how the Kremlin communicates to the Russian people about its military adventures.
If the surprise -- and unasked-for -- gift of Russia killing people in Syria comes at the price of the worst air catastrophe in the history of Russian aviation, then the Kremlin will have an acute challenge of image management.
4. In light of my point 3, although Russia's air safety investigation arm (a commission of IAC/MAK) has a good reputation and track record, it could face unprecedented political pressure in the investigation of this accident. Russia is not an exotic variant of the West ... things are really different there.
2. Major Russian air carriers seem to (generally) operate in accordance with international safety standards. However, the post-2000 record of smaller operators in the Russian Federation is scary.
3. The political effect of this crash may be more potent than any aviation incident in Russian political history.
3a. If investigation discloses evidence that deficiencies in quality and government oversight contributed to the crash, this will (I predict) strike a particularly raw nerve among the Russian people, and their confidence that government (or any institution at all) is protecting them. Russians often suffer from avoidable calamities (deadly hospital fires, to give one example) that would be really shocking in more prosperous countries.
Egypt is an enormously popular vacation spot for Russians. The list of countries you can easily enter on a Russian passport is a short one, and most of those are nobody's idea of a vacation spot. Accordingly, millions of Russians can easily visualize their own family as one of those returning on the doomed flight from a sunny holiday. My personal observation is that in Russian culture, events like this tend to be received rather more sentimentally and less analytically than in the West ... this one really hurts.
3b. If investigation discloses that a smuggled IED caused the crash, then this will react with Russia's abrupt initiation of attacks in Syria. I'm sure most Russians didn't see the Syria campaign coming, and there were no crowds on the streets in Moscow demanding the Kremlin to do such a thing.
Part of the political function of the Syrian campaign is to distract the populace from the dead-end of Russia's aggression against Ukraine. If you recall Orwell's "two minutes hate," and the instantaneous switch between war with Eurasia and war with Eastasia, you will have some picture of how the Kremlin communicates to the Russian people about its military adventures.
If the surprise -- and unasked-for -- gift of Russia killing people in Syria comes at the price of the worst air catastrophe in the history of Russian aviation, then the Kremlin will have an acute challenge of image management.
4. In light of my point 3, although Russia's air safety investigation arm (a commission of IAC/MAK) has a good reputation and track record, it could face unprecedented political pressure in the investigation of this accident. Russia is not an exotic variant of the West ... things are really different there.
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: USA
Posts: 75
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
As far as further pockmarks, there are multiple marks on the panel forward of the pockmarked door.
Also, in the large version of the photo, there are lav parts that are well forward (into the seating area) of where they should be, looks to be port lav parts . They should be displaced to the rear with a rear pressure bulkhead failure.
Also, in the large version of the photo, there are lav parts that are well forward (into the seating area) of where they should be, looks to be port lav parts . They should be displaced to the rear with a rear pressure bulkhead failure.
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Maine USA
Age: 82
Posts: 199
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Something interesting about the holes in the door panel is that, when I use Photoshop to enlarge the image, they appear to be exit holes. Has anyone seen a photo of the outside of the door?
And damn all low-resolution images anyway!
And damn all low-resolution images anyway!
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: wales
Age: 81
Posts: 316
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Must say I hadn't seen it before
a) is that the rear PB?
b) what is that hose pipe, never seen that on any aircraft b4.
c) bottom left side is that outer skin melted?
D) pure interest what is the domestic radiator type structure
Doesn't have to. Just needs to heat them up enough to weaken them. Been through that with the 9-11 conspiracy nitwits.
While your question to Etud Lavia is well asked, anyone in the aviation business will be concerned about factors that may negatively influence the investigation into this tragic crash.
Note how Malaysia handles that disappearing 777 ... one could almost smell the political pressure and spin in that one.
One sincerely hopes that the Russian investigators are not given any "under the table" push, and that they are allowed to do their job. As etud notes, the investigators to date have a good rep.
While your question to Etud Lavia is well asked, anyone in the aviation business will be concerned about factors that may negatively influence the investigation into this tragic crash.
Note how Malaysia handles that disappearing 777 ... one could almost smell the political pressure and spin in that one.
One sincerely hopes that the Russian investigators are not given any "under the table" push, and that they are allowed to do their job. As etud notes, the investigators to date have a good rep.
I'm sure someone more knowledgeable will soon be along, but I think that's aft of the RPB and you can see the APU fuel line, the line from the fire bottle to the APU, plus the bleed air supply from APU to aircraft services.
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: USA
Posts: 75
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
"Re dots on the door, isn't there a hole directly above the opposite (port) door too, up by the VS?"
Aft of the port door, look under the skin panel that is displaced outward. There is a bulkhead that has multiple holes in it down low. Light is showing through the holes making them easy to see.
Aft of the port door, look under the skin panel that is displaced outward. There is a bulkhead that has multiple holes in it down low. Light is showing through the holes making them easy to see.
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: England
Posts: 9
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
oldoberon
In response to your questions. No that isn't the pressure bulkhead. That is a firewall separation the APU compartment from the horizontal stabiliser bay. The hose pipe is the APU fuel pipe and the radiator structure is just part of the structure of that sidewall. The area forward of that photo is unpressuried. The photo also shows the APU Fire bottle and the APU bleed duct in the lower left corner. Between that section and HS bay there will be a cutout allowing movement of the HS. The aft portion of the hozizontal stab would sit over the APU tail cone shown in that photo.
In response to your questions. No that isn't the pressure bulkhead. That is a firewall separation the APU compartment from the horizontal stabiliser bay. The hose pipe is the APU fuel pipe and the radiator structure is just part of the structure of that sidewall. The area forward of that photo is unpressuried. The photo also shows the APU Fire bottle and the APU bleed duct in the lower left corner. Between that section and HS bay there will be a cutout allowing movement of the HS. The aft portion of the hozizontal stab would sit over the APU tail cone shown in that photo.
Last edited by Islay; 2nd Nov 2015 at 22:00. Reason: Addition of text
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Midlands
Posts: 128
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Similar shaped "hole" on the same bulkhead of the Hudson A320.
http://www.barryontheroad.com/wp-con...lConeadj50.jpg
http://www.barryontheroad.com/wp-con...lConeadj50.jpg
Join Date: May 2005
Location: Milton Keynes
Posts: 1,070
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The focus here is moving towards the back of the aeroplane. The answer lies there I think
Someone must know now- because if it was an explosion in either the cabin or the lavatory or the baggage hold there will be tell tail signs of that explosion.
Otherwise it failure of the RPB (which doesn't look convincing) or some other structural failure at the rear of the aeroplane.
Don't think it is the RPB repair but am drawn to that skydrol which might be irrelevant. Still looking for answers as to whether it would need top up and whether that would be recorded in any kind of tech log. What are the consequences of Skydrol leak and where would it go- where would messy top ups go if they are needed. Still waiting for an engineer to tell me "there are no consequences worth note".
I sense some are looking for terrorist involvement when that is the least comfortable option for me as an outsider and doesn't seem likely really - a Jihadi from Syria straying to Sharm - well maybe but not really. A poorly maintained Russian aeroplane operated by a rogue operator is much more palatable. Means I can climb on to an Easy or Monarch A3xx to Sharm with more comfort.
And why is the operator wading in? It isn't their place - the independent investigation will determine. Dare I say the Egyptians would not like terrorism - I have the feeling Metrojet and Mr Putin might be more comfortable with it - though to his credit Mr Putin is remaining neutral at present.
Someone must know now- because if it was an explosion in either the cabin or the lavatory or the baggage hold there will be tell tail signs of that explosion.
Otherwise it failure of the RPB (which doesn't look convincing) or some other structural failure at the rear of the aeroplane.
Don't think it is the RPB repair but am drawn to that skydrol which might be irrelevant. Still looking for answers as to whether it would need top up and whether that would be recorded in any kind of tech log. What are the consequences of Skydrol leak and where would it go- where would messy top ups go if they are needed. Still waiting for an engineer to tell me "there are no consequences worth note".
I sense some are looking for terrorist involvement when that is the least comfortable option for me as an outsider and doesn't seem likely really - a Jihadi from Syria straying to Sharm - well maybe but not really. A poorly maintained Russian aeroplane operated by a rogue operator is much more palatable. Means I can climb on to an Easy or Monarch A3xx to Sharm with more comfort.
And why is the operator wading in? It isn't their place - the independent investigation will determine. Dare I say the Egyptians would not like terrorism - I have the feeling Metrojet and Mr Putin might be more comfortable with it - though to his credit Mr Putin is remaining neutral at present.
Join Date: Nov 2013
Location: California
Posts: 154
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Pretty sure that's not rear PB. Rear PB looks like this (A320): Photos: Airbus A320-212 Aircraft Pictures | Airliners.net
@Etud_lAvia, that's exactly my reading of the situation as well. That's why Kremlin was publicly denying possible terror involvement before even the wreckage was found.
@Etud_lAvia, that's exactly my reading of the situation as well. That's why Kremlin was publicly denying possible terror involvement before even the wreckage was found.
Join Date: Mar 2015
Location: USA
Posts: 75
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
22/04,
The skydrol is not a problem on aluminum. There is concern on the composite attach fittings on the VS, but the pics show that the VS failure was above them. So that is not the issue here.
If you search Airbus images on th net, you will see this is not uncommon.
Messy looking, not dangerous (on aluminum).
The skydrol is not a problem on aluminum. There is concern on the composite attach fittings on the VS, but the pics show that the VS failure was above them. So that is not the issue here.
If you search Airbus images on th net, you will see this is not uncommon.
Messy looking, not dangerous (on aluminum).
Resident insomniac
Join Date: Aug 2005
Location: N54 58 34 W02 01 21
Age: 79
Posts: 1,873
Likes: 0
Received 1 Like
on
1 Post
Sources close to the investigation say it was not struck from the outside, leaving a bomb as one of the most likely causes.
