BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=viFEgBW0VfU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pB3NSrXRyv0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QA0fiDFQTbM
EMERCOM: ...at about 3 or 4pm local we will transport some items we found by helicopter...
We have increased the area of the search operation and there are new factors that have emerged today...
We have increased the area of the search operation and there are new factors that have emerged today...
“Four groups have surveyed eight square kilometres. We plan to explore 20 square kilometres up until 22.00. In addition we will turn over large parts of the plane to see what is underneath."
Published on 2 Nov 2015
The head of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, Alexander Neradko, discussed the decoding of the crashed 7K9268 plane’s black box during a video address in Cairo, Monday.
SOT, Alexander Neradko, Head of the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (in Russian): "A second group of Russian investigators are now working at the Ministry of Civil Aviation of Egypt, working with the flight recorders. Today they managed to inspect the flight recorders, the recorder of the flight parameters and voice recorder. The apparent condition of the protective covers of these recorders is satisfactory, which allows us to hope that we will be able to decrypt the recordings of the flight records. But the decryption of the flight recorders will start only when all members of the investigation arrive at Egypt’s Ministry of Civil Aviation. The members involved in the investigation, besides the Egyptian specialists, include representatives from the countries where the plane was designed and manufactured – that is France and Germany, as well as representatives of countries where the aircraft was registered – that is representatives from Ireland. When all those specialists arrive in Cairo, the transcript of the flight recorders will start immediately. The decoding will apparently be held in Cairo."
The head of Russia’s Federal Air Transport Agency, Alexander Neradko, discussed the decoding of the crashed 7K9268 plane’s black box during a video address in Cairo, Monday.
SOT, Alexander Neradko, Head of the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (in Russian): "A second group of Russian investigators are now working at the Ministry of Civil Aviation of Egypt, working with the flight recorders. Today they managed to inspect the flight recorders, the recorder of the flight parameters and voice recorder. The apparent condition of the protective covers of these recorders is satisfactory, which allows us to hope that we will be able to decrypt the recordings of the flight records. But the decryption of the flight recorders will start only when all members of the investigation arrive at Egypt’s Ministry of Civil Aviation. The members involved in the investigation, besides the Egyptian specialists, include representatives from the countries where the plane was designed and manufactured – that is France and Germany, as well as representatives of countries where the aircraft was registered – that is representatives from Ireland. When all those specialists arrive in Cairo, the transcript of the flight recorders will start immediately. The decoding will apparently be held in Cairo."
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
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Kogalymavia official; "External Influence"
I wish I knew exactly what the Kogalymavia official meant by the statement "an External Influence". Very premature into the investigation to come out with such statements. It looks to me like a weak attempt to muddy the waters for legal purposes to absolve themselves from a less than stellar maintenance past.
The physical look and maintenance / history records of EI-ETJ would lead most away from the bomb/shoot down scenario until proved otherwise. RIP to passengers and crew, and sympathies to their loved ones.
The physical look and maintenance / history records of EI-ETJ would lead most away from the bomb/shoot down scenario until proved otherwise. RIP to passengers and crew, and sympathies to their loved ones.
Last edited by tlbrown350; 2nd Nov 2015 at 17:24.
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Regarding IS claim:
Not an Arabic speaker myself, but all of the translations I have seen use the word "downed," as opposed to "shot down." There was also some defensiveness today on their part about why everyone is assuming MANPAD. The implication they're putting out, FWIW, is an onboard device. They certainly haven't claimed to have "shot" the aircraft down. Also worth noting here is that, while Egypt's affiliate in the Sinai has had a maybe 75/25 ratio, or at least not-perfectly-accurate profile of responsibility claims, the Central HQ as it were has picked this up whole-heartedly, and they tend to be pretty reliable. They're certainly all-in on this.
Not an Arabic speaker myself, but all of the translations I have seen use the word "downed," as opposed to "shot down." There was also some defensiveness today on their part about why everyone is assuming MANPAD. The implication they're putting out, FWIW, is an onboard device. They certainly haven't claimed to have "shot" the aircraft down. Also worth noting here is that, while Egypt's affiliate in the Sinai has had a maybe 75/25 ratio, or at least not-perfectly-accurate profile of responsibility claims, the Central HQ as it were has picked this up whole-heartedly, and they tend to be pretty reliable. They're certainly all-in on this.
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A question for someone with airbus technical knowledge
It appears that the event happened as the aircraft approached TOC. Would the cabin altitude still have been increasing at that time?
The absence of a recognisable rear fuselage in the wreckage photos opens the possibility of the initial failure somewhere in that component.
What caused the failure remains open.
What caused the failure remains open.
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The cabin pressure would be at the highest level (attained during the flight) since the aircraft just reached cruising altitude when the "event" happened.
Edit: Pictures of the rear fuselage (taken from the air) show a complete absence of the horizontal stabilizers. The rudder is detached as well. This is a strong indication about problems in the tail area and pictures showing the aircraft with hydraulic leaks in the same section can be a clue as well.
My take based on available pictures is that the event involved a ruptured rear pressure bulkhead followed by a loss of the rudder and stabilizer separation (or failure of the stabilizers independent of the bulkhead).
Edit: Pictures of the rear fuselage (taken from the air) show a complete absence of the horizontal stabilizers. The rudder is detached as well. This is a strong indication about problems in the tail area and pictures showing the aircraft with hydraulic leaks in the same section can be a clue as well.
My take based on available pictures is that the event involved a ruptured rear pressure bulkhead followed by a loss of the rudder and stabilizer separation (or failure of the stabilizers independent of the bulkhead).
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ISIS/Sinai State did not say that they had 'shot the plane down' they said they had 'downed the plane'- leaving room for interpretation......
This French article in the Huffington Post has a whole host of 'experts' stacking up arguments for the bomb theory...
Crash en Egypte: un scénario semblable à l'attentat de Lockerbie en 1988 est évoqué par plusieurs experts
This French article in the Huffington Post has a whole host of 'experts' stacking up arguments for the bomb theory...
Crash en Egypte: un scénario semblable à l'attentat de Lockerbie en 1988 est évoqué par plusieurs experts
That leak
Once again, apologies for my non-professional perspective.
There seems to be an emerging trend (omitting for the moment the foul play options) in the analysis presented by knowledgeable commentators here which would tend to suggest that the locus of failure was somewhere at the rear of the aircraft, adjacent to the pressure bulkhead and stabilisers.
At the same time several photographs have been posted of this aircraft exhibiting very conspicuous hydraulic fluid leakage in the same area, extending - or so it looks to me - to a seam encircling the fuselage. Now back in the day when I operated and maintained heavy earth-moving and mining plant I'd have regarded a hydraulic leak like this as warranting a repair asap - on a bulldozer, much less an aircraft.
Having read most of the posts, including some which have been moderated away, there doesn't appear to be any informed comment suggesting that there may be a correlation between this manifestation and the accident. Which seems pretty surprising to an observer.
There seems to be an emerging trend (omitting for the moment the foul play options) in the analysis presented by knowledgeable commentators here which would tend to suggest that the locus of failure was somewhere at the rear of the aircraft, adjacent to the pressure bulkhead and stabilisers.
At the same time several photographs have been posted of this aircraft exhibiting very conspicuous hydraulic fluid leakage in the same area, extending - or so it looks to me - to a seam encircling the fuselage. Now back in the day when I operated and maintained heavy earth-moving and mining plant I'd have regarded a hydraulic leak like this as warranting a repair asap - on a bulldozer, much less an aircraft.
Having read most of the posts, including some which have been moderated away, there doesn't appear to be any informed comment suggesting that there may be a correlation between this manifestation and the accident. Which seems pretty surprising to an observer.
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A question for someone with airbus technical knowledge
It appears that the event happened as the aircraft approached TOC. Would the cabin altitude still have been increasing at that time?
It appears that the event happened as the aircraft approached TOC. Would the cabin altitude still have been increasing at that time?
The cabin pressure would be at the highest level (attained during the flight) since the aircraft just reached cruising altitude when the "event" happened.
Don't you mean to say that cabin differential is highest at level off?
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@LiamNCL
The French article I posted quotes a French 'expert' who argues:
"The ISIS claim is credible because the Egyptian branch has never lied about it's actions", confirmed the French expert on terrorism, Mathieu Guidère to AFP, author of 'Terror, the new age"(...)
"La revendication de l'EI est crédible parce que sa branche en Egypte n'a jamais menti sur ses actions", a aussi affirmé à l'AFP Mathieu Guidère, expert français du terrorisme et auteur de "Terreur, la nouvelle ère", résumant les commentaires de nombre de ses collègues".
The French article I posted quotes a French 'expert' who argues:
"The ISIS claim is credible because the Egyptian branch has never lied about it's actions", confirmed the French expert on terrorism, Mathieu Guidère to AFP, author of 'Terror, the new age"(...)
"La revendication de l'EI est crédible parce que sa branche en Egypte n'a jamais menti sur ses actions", a aussi affirmé à l'AFP Mathieu Guidère, expert français du terrorisme et auteur de "Terreur, la nouvelle ère", résumant les commentaires de nombre de ses collègues".
Last edited by gmorton; 2nd Nov 2015 at 17:53.
@ skridlov
Those streaks could equally be the traces of de-icing fluid which would accumulate there after the tail is sprayed. A hydraulic leak is taken seriously, and would not go unnoticed during walk-around or maintenance.
This being said, assuming sloppy maintenance would permit a leak to continue, I do not see any hydraulic failure scenario that would result in the catastrophic structural failure we are seeing.
Assuming worst case scenarios, a full deflection of the rudder would probably result in the entire VS snapping off at those speeds/altitudes, which clearly did not happen (the VS damage we see is due to ground impact). Full elevator deflection can be countered by the stab trim, which is not driven by hydraulics but by a servo/pulley system.
Those streaks could equally be the traces of de-icing fluid which would accumulate there after the tail is sprayed. A hydraulic leak is taken seriously, and would not go unnoticed during walk-around or maintenance.
This being said, assuming sloppy maintenance would permit a leak to continue, I do not see any hydraulic failure scenario that would result in the catastrophic structural failure we are seeing.
Assuming worst case scenarios, a full deflection of the rudder would probably result in the entire VS snapping off at those speeds/altitudes, which clearly did not happen (the VS damage we see is due to ground impact). Full elevator deflection can be countered by the stab trim, which is not driven by hydraulics but by a servo/pulley system.
First Question: Is a Mid Air Collision consistent with what (little) we know so far? Somehow seems to be about the only possible scenario not yet discussed.
Second Question: When the airline talks of an "external influence", could one interpretation be "the people - not us! - who repaired the tail-strike messed up"? If so, exactly who effected that major repair ten or so years ago?
Second Question: When the airline talks of an "external influence", could one interpretation be "the people - not us! - who repaired the tail-strike messed up"? If so, exactly who effected that major repair ten or so years ago?
Last edited by Gary Brown; 2nd Nov 2015 at 17:53. Reason: Second thoughts!
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Is a Mid Air Collision consistent with what (little) we know so far? Somehow seems to be about the only possible scenario not yet discussed.
Is a Mid Air Collision consistent with what (little) we know so far?
Thanks andrasz.
That's a succinct explanation.
Either way, I'm surprised that it was allowed to remain long enough stain the aircraft - there are at least two snaps showing the same symptoms and I assume they weren't shot at the same time. I wouldn't see this oversight (if it is) as evidence of a pride in the operation though.
That's a succinct explanation.
Either way, I'm surprised that it was allowed to remain long enough stain the aircraft - there are at least two snaps showing the same symptoms and I assume they weren't shot at the same time. I wouldn't see this oversight (if it is) as evidence of a pride in the operation though.
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@gmorton
I think its still a credible claim but we all know ISIS are a propaganda machine , They warned us about Sousse weeks before it happened i just think if it was really them who were responsible it would of been claimed instantly and even warned about in someway previous to it happening , They put out a video claiming that was the plane falling from the sky but why werent they first on site ? They could of been there destroying , taking things and god knows what else way before any emergency services got there
I think its still a credible claim but we all know ISIS are a propaganda machine , They warned us about Sousse weeks before it happened i just think if it was really them who were responsible it would of been claimed instantly and even warned about in someway previous to it happening , They put out a video claiming that was the plane falling from the sky but why werent they first on site ? They could of been there destroying , taking things and god knows what else way before any emergency services got there