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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 9th Nov 2015, 09:13
  #1861 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by pax2908 View Post
So if this was a bomb, how long before there is a fully reliable chemical proof ?
It's inconceivable that investigators don't already know whether it was or not.

But the announcement of their conclusions, whatever they may be, is now going to have to be carefully stage-managed, given the developments of the last nine days. Don't hold your breath.
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 09:33
  #1862 (permalink)  
 
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To date, only the intelligence services in the UK and US have suggested that there are strong indications that it may have been a bomb. They haven't actually ever said it was a bomb.

But that's the intel business, experts making a guess from limited and inadequate information at best, and indulging in outright fabrication at worst.

A bit like PPRuNe in many ways.
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 09:56
  #1863 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by FDMII View Post
Likely the RH HS as both wings/wing-tips are accounted for.

Agree - the HS sealing panel (as noted by Control Eng previously) visible at the top left. I particularly note the angle of the remaining attached piece of elevator.
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 10:43
  #1864 (permalink)  
 
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This traces on APU cone looks like exhaust leaks for me, not like hydraulic.
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 10:51
  #1865 (permalink)  
 
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If for some reason the jackscrew link to the HS broke. The HS is not going to suddenly turn 90 but is surely going to suffer from intense flutter as it is no longer rigid? That could explain the elevator damage and final departure of the HS parts?
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 10:51
  #1866 (permalink)  
 
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London confirms that it has passed intelligence data to Moscow which confirms that the likely cause of the A321 plane crash over the Sinai Peninsula was likely due to a terrorist act, the British Foreign Office told Sputnik on Monday.
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 10:53
  #1867 (permalink)  
 
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Ionagh, sounds reasonable but doesnt explain sudden loss of FDR data.
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 10:57
  #1868 (permalink)  
 
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Thanks Kulver.

In English:
Kremlin Confirms London Gave Moscow 'Certain Information' on A321 Crash

I guess more ducks in a row.
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 11:32
  #1869 (permalink)  
 
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Wanton,

Twisting it round makes it easier to compare:

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Old 9th Nov 2015, 11:55
  #1870 (permalink)  
 
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HS separation

A second effort to illustrate a possible interpretation of HS separation. I understand this possibility is contentious/debatable and, as with my previous suggestion that the HS assembly went 'straight out the back' as a result of near 90 degree breaking off the APU section completely as it went, some evidence appears to fit, some doesn't. For simplicity's sake I have ignored movement of the elevator relative to the HS in the diagram.

And as ever, irrespective of the plausibility of this scenario, the initiating factor remains unclear.


Last edited by Bertie Bonkers; 9th Nov 2015 at 12:03. Reason: Additional comment
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 12:04
  #1871 (permalink)  
Marodeur
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Quote
"But that's the intel business, experts making a guess from limited and inadequate information at best, and indulging in outright fabrication at worst.
A bit like PPRuNe in many ways".
Unquote

I think that statement is incorrect. The UK and USA Intelligence services are recognised as the best in the world in terms of global footprint and global reach. By sheer volume and diversity of (re)sources, the two biggest contributors to NATO is untouchable.
PPRuNe, members of PP Rumour Network, has thus far delivered some amazing analysis and knowledge on a very complex subject. This is the beauty of 21st Century communication, it is instantaneous, graphic and accessible by most almost anywhere.

Hiding and sweeping things under the carpet has become very difficult.
 
Old 9th Nov 2015, 12:07
  #1872 (permalink)  
 
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@ Bertie


The logic is not entirely flawed, but there are two things firmly against it:


The slots in the fuselage side conform to allowed HS up (max 5 deg) and down (12 deg) movements, and as we have seen on several photos it is framed by strong support beams. That would limit the possible downward movement of the HS in your scenario.


As the HS moves down, the aircraft nose pitches up, and this would be recorded on the FDR prior to loss of sgnal. As the FDR loss of signal was abrupt without anything but normal parameters, the tail separation had to be one of the first events.
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 12:11
  #1873 (permalink)  
 
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Bertie Bonkers

Why would HS drop down? Is there a drawing where you can compare HS areas front and aft of its horisontal axis along remaining joints ?

It should only do that if frontal area is bigger than that behind axis. AOA also has to be considered of course.
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 12:13
  #1874 (permalink)  
 
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PPRuNe, members of PP Rumour Network, has thus far delivered some amazing analysis and knowledge on a very complex subject.
Don't we need to know what really happened before deciding whether the above is true or not....
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 12:14
  #1875 (permalink)  
 
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Thank HundredPercentPlease
That helps...you can see that at least most the staining was previous...
Is it all skydrol or as Kulver says APU exhaust leaking from within the APU cone idk..?!

Here is another shot for ref..underside looks clean enough to me..no evidence of soot..,


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Old 9th Nov 2015, 12:47
  #1876 (permalink)  
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"Don't we need to know what really happened before deciding whether the above is true or not...."
Unquote

No we don't. This is where 21st Century style communication enters. PPRuNe, and others, fill a void whereby armchair 'detectives and analysers' can individually and collectively contribute knowledge in real time. The days of solely relying on 'others' to spoon feed us is long gone. Right here and now we have dozens of members contributing some very factual information and graphics. Your and my presence on this forum is proof of that quest for information

Welcome the future.
 
Old 9th Nov 2015, 13:06
  #1877 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Marodeur View Post
No we don't. This is where 21st Century style communication enters. PPRuNe, and others, fill a void whereby armchair 'detectives and analysers' can individually and collectively contribute knowledge in real time. The days of solely relying on 'others' to spoon feed us is long gone. Right here and now we have dozens of members contributing some very factual information and graphics. Your and my presence on this forum is proof of that quest for information

Welcome the future.
That all presupposes that the future doesn't show all PPRuNe crash speculation to be utterly specious twaddle spewn by fantasists, doesn't it....?

I may have missed the crash where PPRuNe armchair experts got there first, but I don't remember one.....
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 13:07
  #1878 (permalink)  
 
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Still missing update 7

Based on the photos that i have seen thus far:

Missing - outside view, major components - assuming that the section before the wing was destroyed in the post crash fire,
a. rudder (and associated GFRP 'strip'),
b. box structure of the vertical tail (VS),
c. any trace of the (below cabin floor) aft cargo hold from forward of that aft pax door to probably 1 or 2 frames forward of the large cargo door,
d. part of the left hand upper panel with windows of above the aft cargo hold (ergo, above cabin floor). I have noted the right hand panel as a 'probable' (in my definition).

Note on the tail cone "soot" views ... I would certainly change that into "staining" ... for a number of reasons (clean surfaces inside and out, minimal staining inside the tail cone components - even less than visible on a number of photos of the plane from the last 2 years). Origin of stains (next those from normal operations) could come from the remaining fuel in the broken APU fuel line (which runs along left hand fuselage side), perhaps additional stains (maybe soot) if the APU oil tank cracked, but these effects have been minimal.

I am working on some 3D reconstructions. What is striking is how many photos you need to get some certainty. The photos in general are of low resolution. And when you get a shot from another angle, it can make quite a difference.

My impression is that i can reconstruct at least one section segment over the full 360.

So photos of the missing components of any kind are welcome. And even better resolution pictures of the known items. Thanks to all the posters providing them :-)

Next to this i am interested in if the flight plan and cargo manifest have been published. Till now i have only seen passenger bags which appear to be only the smaller ones (hand luggage?). No big suitcases or anything that looks like cargo. The inside parts of the cargo holds appear pristine like the rest.

Last edited by A0283; 9th Nov 2015 at 13:23.
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 13:08
  #1879 (permalink)  
 
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As to the decision to limit flights and baggage......

This is, or should be, a very clean investigation with a quick determination. As noted above they have most of the aircraft and it was recovered quickly and in a dry environment. This should be easy.

In the event that the investigators with hands on the evidence don't yet know, can't find evidence of a bomb, or mechanical failure, then that must be a scary situation for all. Worst of all would be that the investigators are having the same discussions as go on here.

With no clear determination, then how do you stop this from repeating?

If that is the case then the abundance of caution makes perfect sense.

At this point I think most everyone would benefit from a clear determination, thus I'm guessing that they, the investigators, may be as stumped as we. Or worse, they could have contradictory and unreconcilable info.
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Old 9th Nov 2015, 13:13
  #1880 (permalink)  
 
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mitrosft & Bertie Bonkers,

It should only do that if frontal area is bigger than that behind axis. AOA also has to be considered of course.
for small AOA, CP is typically @ 1/4 to 1/3 of MAC, not 1/2.

I would expect Airbus engineers to have set the pivot point just forward of CP. Keeping this distance small would minimize the loads on the jackscrew, allowing it to be a bit larger would be more fail-safe, see next:

I would expect that shedding of the elevators/trailing edge of HS would have moved the CP further forward. Whether that was enough to bring the CP ahead of pivot point is impossible to say without as a minimum the HS plans and knowing what was missing.
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