BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR
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Wondering re CVR " explosion " meme
Egypt, France, and other media now claiming sound of ' explosion' at end of recording.
But I wonder if the wording/translation/ versus media interest isperhaps a bit out of hand.
Why ?
1) I believe expert analysis can determine if the ' explosion ' was simply the result of the aft section in front of the pressure bulkhead separating thus a loud bang- decompression - shutoff power resulting from a HS hard over scenario.
2) OR the " shock wave" typical of an real explosion followed by a rapid decompression and break-off of aft section which would happen a small bit later- IOW two possible ' bangs' on the CVR.
A documented expert analysis could probably determine the difference.
The media cannot- especially from anon sources leaked.
But I wonder if the wording/translation/ versus media interest isperhaps a bit out of hand.
Why ?
1) I believe expert analysis can determine if the ' explosion ' was simply the result of the aft section in front of the pressure bulkhead separating thus a loud bang- decompression - shutoff power resulting from a HS hard over scenario.
2) OR the " shock wave" typical of an real explosion followed by a rapid decompression and break-off of aft section which would happen a small bit later- IOW two possible ' bangs' on the CVR.
A documented expert analysis could probably determine the difference.
The media cannot- especially from anon sources leaked.
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The vignetting effect in the videos is typical of copyright material uploaded to YouTube in an attempt to bypass automatic copyright take down programs. Pretty much the whole Air Accident Investigation series is displayed in this format along with several similar series. Quite possibly the video is a clip from one of these many programs.
A loud bang at the end of any CVR playback would be expected whether it was a bomb or an explosive decompression as the tail broke away from the aircraft. Not conclusive proof that an explosive device was involved, in the absence of other corroborating evidence such as explosive residue and recovery of components near the centre of the blast, allowing particle trajectories to be calculated.
A loud bang at the end of any CVR playback would be expected whether it was a bomb or an explosive decompression as the tail broke away from the aircraft. Not conclusive proof that an explosive device was involved, in the absence of other corroborating evidence such as explosive residue and recovery of components near the centre of the blast, allowing particle trajectories to be calculated.
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And I was always told, that if I do not show at plane after getting boarding pass, my luggage will be thrown off.
When this rule was cancelled?
When this rule was cancelled?
Can't speak for all the countries in the world, but here in France, this rule doesn't exist.
I was recently unable to board a plane in a big Parisian airport as a pax. The plane did leave with my luggage. I complained about the safety issue it could cause to the DGAC (Direction Générale de l'Aviation Civile, a French authority who deals with everything regarding safety at air), and I have been told that there is [in France] no rule that forces airline to remove lugage when a passenger doesn't board the plane. It is even the opposite.
I have been astonished by that information, and of course my first thought was "Wow, you can put a bomb in your luggage, purposely miss the plane and boum..."
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Just been revisiting the report into PA103 over Lockerbie. Interesting reading in terms of effects and break up sequences. The following is very similar:
CVR
It was possible to establish that a loud sound was heard on the CVR cockpit area microphone channel at (19:01:50) +/- 1 second. The tape record ended, at (19:02:50) +/- 1 second, with a sudden loud sound followed almost immediately by the cessation of the recording.
FDR
Decoding and reduction of the data from the accident flight showed that no abnormal behaviour of the data sensors had been recorded and that the recorder had simply stopped at (19:02:51) +/- 1 second
CVR
It was possible to establish that a loud sound was heard on the CVR cockpit area microphone channel at (19:01:50) +/- 1 second. The tape record ended, at (19:02:50) +/- 1 second, with a sudden loud sound followed almost immediately by the cessation of the recording.
FDR
Decoding and reduction of the data from the accident flight showed that no abnormal behaviour of the data sensors had been recorded and that the recorder had simply stopped at (19:02:51) +/- 1 second
Interesting read at the current context.
Was this later implemented in modern black boxes?
in «AIR CRASH INVESTIGATIONS: LOCKERBIE, The Bombing of PANAM Flight 103»
https://goo.gl/vLVH32
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France24/Le Point/AFP
Just to follow up on this, the original AFP source refers to a "sudden, brutal sound" recorded by the cvr. By the time it gets to France24 via Le Point it has become the sound of an explosion.
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re rather be flying 6nov 2015 1500
You raise the same issue- reasons I stated in my post
#1306 (permalink)
but more terse and simple.
IF aft section torn off by explosion and pressure issues ahead of PB, then HS and VS would be a relatively complete unit and as it fell would generally align itself to minimum drag or if not would not develop enough " leverage" ( opposite force ) to rip off HS external to tail section- thus landing almost intact but for impact damage. But photos to date do not support this analysis.
I note that CVR and FDR were ' recovered ' and probably were part of tail cone aft of PB since that was the location- but NO- repeat NO photos of nearby jackcrew and internal HS ' wing" Box which is more massive than the nearby skin/stringer attachments/shelves holding the CVR-FDR.
Something is still missing from released info
#1306 (permalink)
but more terse and simple.
IF aft section torn off by explosion and pressure issues ahead of PB, then HS and VS would be a relatively complete unit and as it fell would generally align itself to minimum drag or if not would not develop enough " leverage" ( opposite force ) to rip off HS external to tail section- thus landing almost intact but for impact damage. But photos to date do not support this analysis.
I note that CVR and FDR were ' recovered ' and probably were part of tail cone aft of PB since that was the location- but NO- repeat NO photos of nearby jackcrew and internal HS ' wing" Box which is more massive than the nearby skin/stringer attachments/shelves holding the CVR-FDR.
Something is still missing from released info
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I have a feeling that the truth will be out tomorrow, after the Egyptian's press conference. I think they are feeling stuck between a rock and a hard place. Come out with what they know to be true so far, or continue to have a rapid demise/disrupt in their tourist industry / country.
I still don't feel that a bomb is responsible. An explosive decompression would sound the same as an explosion caused by a bomb no doubt?
Secondly, a bomb that would clearly have to be located in the rear of the aircraft - either on the passenger section, or below in cargo. I find it impossible to believe that a bomb could be placed in the cargo hold and not damage any luggage / suitcases etc. The pictures we have seen so far, they have looked in pretty good condition despite what's happened.
A bomb on the upper deck would surely demonstrate more shrapnel damage and/or leave behind a trace that any fully trained investigator would be able to spot?
My money is still on the tail strike incident. I imagine a charter plane would be treated in a similar manner as a courtesy car would be. Maintained to the bare minimum/legal requirement and slightly lax care/consideration for it.
I still don't feel that a bomb is responsible. An explosive decompression would sound the same as an explosion caused by a bomb no doubt?
Secondly, a bomb that would clearly have to be located in the rear of the aircraft - either on the passenger section, or below in cargo. I find it impossible to believe that a bomb could be placed in the cargo hold and not damage any luggage / suitcases etc. The pictures we have seen so far, they have looked in pretty good condition despite what's happened.
A bomb on the upper deck would surely demonstrate more shrapnel damage and/or leave behind a trace that any fully trained investigator would be able to spot?
My money is still on the tail strike incident. I imagine a charter plane would be treated in a similar manner as a courtesy car would be. Maintained to the bare minimum/legal requirement and slightly lax care/consideration for it.
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True. But looking back at Kulverstuka's photo of the internal HS assembly & seeing how close the front edge sits to the back of the recorders where the connections go in, if that front edge took out those connections it would be a #very# short interval. There might be a brief period of continued recording life while any capacitors in discharged, but then factor in buffering...
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So, discounting a SAM, as I think is consensus anyway, the other option is a bomb. Seems to me there are three ways to detonate it:
a. pressure/altitude
b. timer
c. remote from the ground.
Now, in order to film this event the camera would have to be extremely close to the flight path.
For a. they'd have had to be directly under the aircraft just as the nominated altitude was reached, possibly needing to know QNH at that point? Implausible.
For b. they'd have had to be directly under the aircraft just as the timer reached its appointed moment. Implausible, given the unpredictability of actual departure time, weather and winds, routing, etc.
For c. they'd have had to be directly under the flight path (how hard is this to predict within a margin of 2-3 miles? I don't know but I'd imagine quite tricky) and known which flight was overhead and had the technology to detonate the bomb remotely from about 6 or 7 miles, which, again, I've read elsewhere is not necessarily easy. For mine, also implausible.
Getting within 10 miles of the flight path is not a big deal, since it follows predetermined flight points. Timing the explosion is the real challenge, if it's on a timer rather than remotely detonated: their margin of error is +/-2 minutes, tops (if the departure is delayed even for 5 min, the explosion will be too far to film.)
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Why are there not two sets of CVR and FDR, one at each end of the aeroplane ? There are backups for lots of other systems.
The recorders are usually powered by normal aircraft power (not batteries). Even if you made the CVR/FDR battery powered, you still need power to the other 1001 components to get all data.
*Probably to minimise length of databus wiring.
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Cubemaster, I understand that but these CVR and FDR seem to go missing or be damaged to be unreadable or inop while a/c continues on before eventual end. A 2nd set in this case would potentially have more data.
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If this crash was the result of a bomb (as the French media asserts), it is absurd for the authorities to claim the investigation "has to run its course." If they have sufficient evidence that it was a bomb, then it becomes primarily a criminal investigation, in which case the information should be released by law enforcement without the full press of an accident investigation.
The accident investigation should continue, of course. But, in parallel with the criminal investigation.
At least that is the way it would work in many countries, including the U.S.
The accident investigation should continue, of course. But, in parallel with the criminal investigation.
At least that is the way it would work in many countries, including the U.S.
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More about the black boxes.
And PLEASE note the wording in the original text, my translation is only a translation.
Crash dans le Sinaï : l'attentat confirmé par les boîtes noires - Le Point
My translation:
The source* cited by AFP expressed that the photos of debris had certain impact damages on the interior versus the exterior of the airframe << that very well could credit the hypothesis of a pyrotechnic event** >>.
*in context, this source seems to be the same source cited earlier, I made a translation of that a few pages ago.
**engin can mean both "engine" and "method by which something is driven/propulsed in the wanted direction"
And PLEASE note the wording in the original text, my translation is only a translation.
Crash dans le Sinaï : l'attentat confirmé par les boîtes noires - Le Point
Selon la source citée par l'Agence France-Presse, les photos des débris montrent que certains sont criblés d'impacts allant de l'intérieur vers l'extérieur de l'appareil, « ce qui accrédite plutôt la thèse d'un engin pyrotechnique ».
The source* cited by AFP expressed that the photos of debris had certain impact damages on the interior versus the exterior of the airframe << that very well could credit the hypothesis of a pyrotechnic event** >>.
*in context, this source seems to be the same source cited earlier, I made a translation of that a few pages ago.
**engin can mean both "engine" and "method by which something is driven/propulsed in the wanted direction"
Last edited by MrSnuggles; 6th Nov 2015 at 22:38. Reason: double stars not showing
Video fake
My professional view of the video is that it is a fake.
1/ the black smoke trail and the aircraft werenot shot at the same time and so have been composited.
The composite is then played on a TV and recorded on a cellphone with some eggagerated wobble.
The frequency of the wobble is not characteristic of footage taken with a long lens of a subject at least 7 miles away.
2/ The deep smoke should exhibit the same tones as the underside of the fusalege, but it does not, it is far cleaner and a deep black without any atmospheric haze or lens distortion. Refer to the black on-screen logo top right as a reference, the black smoke is the same clean and deep black as the logo.
3/ Perspective of the smoke trail is also wrong.
It appears to be taken from a following aircraft and could be a doctored shot of a white contrail or even footage from a gun camera of an unrelated explosive event.
4/ Given the time of day (full sun) and subject to camera distance the initial flash is unlikely to be registered by the camera as a clean, well defined, pure white.
5/ where is the shot of the aircraft falling to earth?
Mickjoebill
1/ the black smoke trail and the aircraft werenot shot at the same time and so have been composited.
The composite is then played on a TV and recorded on a cellphone with some eggagerated wobble.
The frequency of the wobble is not characteristic of footage taken with a long lens of a subject at least 7 miles away.
2/ The deep smoke should exhibit the same tones as the underside of the fusalege, but it does not, it is far cleaner and a deep black without any atmospheric haze or lens distortion. Refer to the black on-screen logo top right as a reference, the black smoke is the same clean and deep black as the logo.
3/ Perspective of the smoke trail is also wrong.
It appears to be taken from a following aircraft and could be a doctored shot of a white contrail or even footage from a gun camera of an unrelated explosive event.
4/ Given the time of day (full sun) and subject to camera distance the initial flash is unlikely to be registered by the camera as a clean, well defined, pure white.
5/ where is the shot of the aircraft falling to earth?
Mickjoebill
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Of relevance to Sharm safety...
Daily Mail (front page) tomorrow reporting that the cockpit crew of a Thompson flight on August 23rdsaw a missile pass within 1000 ft of their aircraft whilst near SES.
No altitude given..
Suggests Egyptian military admitted a test firing... which UK Govt. accepted
Cockpit crew kept quiet until now...
Daily Mail (front page) tomorrow reporting that the cockpit crew of a Thompson flight on August 23rdsaw a missile pass within 1000 ft of their aircraft whilst near SES.
No altitude given..
Suggests Egyptian military admitted a test firing... which UK Govt. accepted
Cockpit crew kept quiet until now...
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Are there any skydivers on this forum?
Looking at the girl's picture at LED airport, I'd guess she weighed about 15 pounds (7 kg). As such she'd probably be ranked as a "slow" faller in skydiving parlance.
Can someone with the right knowledge, and a winds aloft report, compute how far she might have drifted in a 31,000 foot fall?
Looking at the girl's picture at LED airport, I'd guess she weighed about 15 pounds (7 kg). As such she'd probably be ranked as a "slow" faller in skydiving parlance.
Can someone with the right knowledge, and a winds aloft report, compute how far she might have drifted in a 31,000 foot fall?
mach411 post 1360_
With respect to the position the toddler was found, I think RYFQB solved the mystery in post #1359. When the body was found, it appears that according to TASS the most recent search area completed was 33 square kilometres. 33 kilometres is 20.51 miles, so the most likely explanation is the information was misreported as direct distance of 20 miles from the main crash site.
Given the 33 km^2 area, if we assume a circle, the body was actually found no more than 3.24 km away from the main crash site.
With respect to the position the toddler was found, I think RYFQB solved the mystery in post #1359. When the body was found, it appears that according to TASS the most recent search area completed was 33 square kilometres. 33 kilometres is 20.51 miles, so the most likely explanation is the information was misreported as direct distance of 20 miles from the main crash site.
Given the 33 km^2 area, if we assume a circle, the body was actually found no more than 3.24 km away from the main crash site.
OTOH
Oleostrut says
"Given the 33 km^2 area, if we assume a circle, the body was actually found no more than 3.24 km away from the main crash site."
Reports on finding the toddler were very clear she was found a great distance from the crash site. Greater than 21 miles was what was reported, and investigators needed to greatly expand their search area, especially along the earlier flightpath.
Nowhere in any of the reports was there any ambiguity as to the child being found distant from the crash site.
Reports on finding the toddler were very clear she was found a great distance from the crash site. Greater than 21 miles was what was reported, and investigators needed to greatly expand their search area, especially along the earlier flightpath.
Nowhere in any of the reports was there any ambiguity as to the child being found distant from the crash site.
Last edited by oldoberon; 6th Nov 2015 at 23:40.
Harrymann....
I heard a rumour on our company website that this also happened to Thomsonfly at DLM but there was no further mention until I saw the media article today. I think there are some very serious questions to be asked of the authorities.
I heard a rumour on our company website that this also happened to Thomsonfly at DLM but there was no further mention until I saw the media article today. I think there are some very serious questions to be asked of the authorities.
Last edited by Right Way Up; 8th Nov 2015 at 08:46.
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Pilotsresearch.......
I have an image of a geeky teenager with no social skills......REALLY?
Harrymann....
I heard a rumour on our company website that this also happened to Thomsonfly at DLM but there was no further mention until I saw the media article today. I think there are some very serious questions to be asked of the authorities.
I have an image of a geeky teenager with no social skills......REALLY?
Harrymann....
I heard a rumour on our company website that this also happened to Thomsonfly at DLM but there was no further mention until I saw the media article today. I think there are some very serious questions to be asked of the authorities.