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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

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BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:18
  #1241 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by CONSO View Post

Or in the possible alternate the HS was twisted/rotated into the airstream such that aeroloads snapped it off

Comments ?
For me, that.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:18
  #1242 (permalink)  
 
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FDR battery backup

Kulverstukas,
I get it as signal cables was broken. I hope there is some kind of backup batteries inside recorders.
To my knowledge there is no battery backup for CVR or FDR.
It is a long debated issue. Power gone - recording stops.
In most cases it means that for pilots there is nothing much to save anymore.

Here it means initial event was quick and violent enegh for subsequent events to happen almost instantly. In seconds. like firestorm in aft compartment and falling apart.

I wonder why wings are still attached and not broken off in sudden nosedive as tail broke off? Or was there enough time to decelerate before tail broke off?
It could easily be the case. just power cables to FDR were snapped in initial event, while tail break along with rear fuselage falling apart happened later. Thus we need to know which parts were found first along the flight path. Small parts perhaps?
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:19
  #1243 (permalink)  
 
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Originally Posted by Kulverstukas View Post
FDR shows totally normal flight parameters until sudden loss of any signal.

(c) Ъ

So FDR seems of no use, as will be CVR (because of possible cable break in moment of disaster). Only hope now on QAR...
Hi Kulverstukas,

May we ask the source of this "breaking news"? I'm afraid I don't get "(c) Ъ"
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:22
  #1244 (permalink)  
 
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"Thus we need to know which parts were found first along the flight path. Small parts perhaps?"


As far as reported here, I believe the toddler found 20 - 25 miles from the cockpit is the first thing found along the flightpath.

http://www.newsunited.com/could-todd...news/19560581/

Last edited by oleostrut; 5th Nov 2015 at 22:30. Reason: link
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:28
  #1245 (permalink)  
 
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Still missing

Still waiting for the rudder and at least half the THS as far as i know.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:30
  #1246 (permalink)  
 
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first pieces

Then, there must be at least some pieces of aircraft close to toddler. What pieces? from where?
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:31
  #1247 (permalink)  
 
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Fear spreading fast:

KLM is currently informing passengers in Cairo that traveling with KL554 Cairo-Amsterdam on November 6, will be allowed if traveling with handluggage only.

Based on national and international information and out of precaution KLM will not allow checkin luggage.

There are no restrictions regarding flying to and from the airport of Cairo. Flight KL553 will be executed according to flight schedule. KLM offers passengers the opportunity to rebook their trip and travel with another airline if opportunities are available.

KLM is monitoring the situation closely.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:33
  #1248 (permalink)  
 
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rudder

"Still waiting for the rudder and at least half the THS as far as i know.:

There was a mention from investigators that all major components had been recovered. We do not have photos of everything there.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:33
  #1249 (permalink)  
 
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@CONSO

I read your post way back in the 900s suggesting something similar - IIRC you suggested the HS deflected leading edge upward into the airflow. To me, the evidence suggests a deflection downward (though possibly both occurred).

I have no idea how plausible this scenario is, but this was my thinking:

https://twitter.com/shadwell_NTT/sta...72599498604544

Basically:

HS deflects down - effectively converting it to an airbrake.

Internal front edge of HS takes out all connections to both flight recorders as it rotates downward.

Front apex of HS hits supporting frame below.

Aerodrag pulls HS straight out the back, taking the lower supporting frame with it, knocking off the APU cone as it goes & ripping out the fuel line.

Escaping fuel from broken fuel line ignited by severed electrical connections to tail.

Last edited by Bertie Bonkers; 5th Nov 2015 at 22:50. Reason: Speeling & gramer
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:38
  #1250 (permalink)  
 
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[QUOTE=Bertie Bonkers;9170935]For me, that.[/QUOT

Is the jackscrew holding leading edge UP?, or DOWN? in 400 knot cruise??
Then, not a runaway, but a complete failure (ie disconnect of HS ) could let leading edge go beyond any stops to practically 90 degrees......
instant departure of HS and all that follows...?.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:39
  #1251 (permalink)  
 
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So if we focus on the events as we know them.

What initial event could have ejected the young child and taken out the CVR and FDR.

We I think here highly suspect failure in the HS/VS area but still need evidence whether this was device mediated or structural failure. I am still drawn to the discoloration around the base of the fin. Not deicing fluid for sure unless anyone can show me similar on an Aeroflot aeroplane for example

HMG now out on a limb- even our greatest ally is leaving DC there.

This is a fascinating but tragic tale.

Can I also thank our Russian posters for the information stream and say that I am sure I speak for most in the UK when I say that we bear no issues over this whole affair- we are all just keen to know what happened so that the correct action is taken to protect innocent people
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:42
  #1252 (permalink)  
 
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@CONSO #2

Regarding the possibility of both upward & downward deflection of HS -

Again, no idea if this is plausible, but:

HS detaches from jackscrew/jackscrew fails

HS leading edge deflects upward, pushing jackscrew & actuator up into the VS assembly (as seen in photo)

As a result the tail goes up, the nose goes down (bunt?), until HS goes "over the top" (ie past horizontal relative to the airflow) at which point it is slammed down by aerodrag and events proceed as outlined in my previous post.

Last edited by Bertie Bonkers; 5th Nov 2015 at 22:43. Reason: speeeling
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:44
  #1253 (permalink)  
 
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Well at least they have a time stamp for the event. This will give a position from which to bind the search and also the ads-b/mode-s data after the event will give some clues.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:46
  #1254 (permalink)  
 
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when exactly FDR stops

It would be interesting to know when exactly FDR stops on known flightpath. Before the events FR24 recorded? Exactly at that time?
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:51
  #1255 (permalink)  
 
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Cell phones

Interesting thought about the videos, OLEOSTRUT. A lot of phones also have accelerometers and gyroscopes in them these days. Not good enough for an INS app yet, but it's in your future. One of the reasons they are inaccurate is because of slow refresh rates, but if you had several of them, maybe the data could be integrated.

http://www.mouser.com/applications/s...olutions_mems/

Last edited by thcrozier; 5th Nov 2015 at 23:21.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:54
  #1256 (permalink)  
 
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@ Prada on TCAS power

Prada is it possible to post the FR24 data or statements that you are referring to?

What you suggest could lead one to conclude that the power distribution between a. the engines//generators and b. the aft fuselage (read tail and flight recorders) failed first.

And that 26 sec later the power between c. engines/generators and d. avionics bay/MEC failed thereafter.

Which would suggest an 'aft fuselage and/or tail event' first. And subsequent aerodynamic breakup later.

Question then is what is the '26 sec later moment' in sync with ... is that a complete loss of communications ... or loss of SSR data (because of comms failure or dropping below the horizon of the SSR or ADS-B receivers... or hitting the deck)?

+++
Or is it just a 26 sec 'extrapolation' by the FR24 'processors'.
Am going to read the Kommersant article now - thanks @thf.

Last edited by A0283; 6th Nov 2015 at 00:14. Reason: +++
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:56
  #1257 (permalink)  
 
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Question HS issue

I read your post way back in the 900s suggesting something similar - IIRC you suggested the HS deflected leading edge upward into the airflow. To me, the evidence suggests a deflection downward (though possibly both occurred).
My point then was that the HS would have to rotate enough to provide a downward( from level flight aspect ) load to tear the upper fuselage apart starting at the circumferential production joint ( highest stress area ) ahead of the PB. before then breaking off. IF at that time ( milliseconds ? ) one HS broke off slightly before the other, a major side load from the resulting roll and side force on the VS could tear off the aft portion behind the VS front spar.

Hopefully recovery of the jack screw and internal HS structural box will help determine the sequence- and possibly the cause.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 22:57
  #1258 (permalink)  
thf
 
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Originally Posted by AlphaZuluRomeo View Post
May we ask the source of this "breaking news"? I'm afraid I don't get "(c) Ъ"
Kommersant (the Financial Times of Russia): Черный ящик оказался пустым
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 23:09
  #1259 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
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UK SIS and other countries' threat responses

Most intelligence gathering operations are long term exercises. The UK's various Secret Intelligence Services co-ordinate threat analyses over different timeframes; short term/immediate threats are usually identified as a result of significant activity on nodes of interest (cell phones, emails, skype, tor activity etc).
My wild speculation is that the UK response is based on massive increased node activity in the region leading to perception of a credible threat to leverage on the existing disaster.
Perhaps perversely, I continue to suspect this was not a terrorist act. I don't subscribe to the APB theory (after JAL123 that ain't going to happen again) or most other theories based on prior events (the purpose of accident investigations is to prevent recurrence, unless there's a serious cock up like DC10 cargo doors).
The strongest part of a fuselage is supposedly the bonded/riveted joints around stringers. Skin is designed to rip in the event of overpressure (eg by explosion) whilst structural integrity is maintained.
I just cannot understand the relatively clean unzip along rivet lines at the tail before the PB in front of the leading edge of the VS. This looks like a fatigue fracture, and its location is spot on for an overcompression of the joint following a tail scrape.
Explosive decompression following a rip explains particle velocity dents.
Aft fire damage is more problematic, but the APU fuel line appears to have been severed some way back into the aft cabin (there's a long length of hose still attached), and I can imagine a few sparks flying around from severed electrics.
In my full scenario, the floor structure means the tail does not separate immediately, leading to the relatively slow descent, rapid deceleration, and lowish impact v.

Last edited by peabrain; 6th Nov 2015 at 00:59.
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Old 5th Nov 2015, 23:18
  #1260 (permalink)  
 
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Possible sequence of events...
.
Tail section separates...cause under debate
Rest of aircraft eventually goes into flat spin.
Sheds engines and fuselage aft of wings and lands inverted with little forward speed.
Nose cone separates and remainder of fuselage and wings catch fire.
Wreckage still smouldering a couple of hours later.
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