Go Back  PPRuNe Forums > Flight Deck Forums > Rumours & News
Reload this Page >

BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Rumours & News Reporting Points that may affect our jobs or lives as professional pilots. Also, items that may be of interest to professional pilots.

BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR

Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:00
  #941 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Moscow, Russia
Posts: 1,022
I think we can't fully exclude structural causes
I don't name this event just because structural failure still not ruled off. On the other hand, I can't remember any similar case of almost immediate destruction of civil a/c in air at FL because of structural failure.

caused by initial destructive event on the left
Dear Prada, can you illustrate this conclusion? I'm not so familiar with A321 parts so for me it's difficult to locate debris pieces to complete picture.
Kulverstukas is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:01
  #942 (permalink)  
thf
 
Join Date: May 2014
Location: living room
Posts: 40
Reuters

Source from Egypt:

The cause of a Russian plane crash in Egypt is looking more like an explosion but it is not clear whether it was linked to a fuel or engine trouble or a bomb, an Egyptian source close to the investigation said on Wednesday.

(...) "It is believed to be an explosion but what kind is not clear. There is an examination of the sand at the crash site to try and determine if it was a bomb," the source, who is close to the team investigating the black boxes, told Reuters.

"There are forensic investigations under way at the crash site. That will help determine the cause, to see if traces of explosives are found."
Source from Russia:

An investigation into the crash of a Russian plane in Egypt last Saturday is looking into the possibility of an object stowed on board causing the disaster, a Russian aviation source said on Wednesday.

"There are two versions now under consideration: something stowed inside (the plane) and a technical fault. But the airplane could not just break apart in the air – there should be some action. A rocket is unlikely as there are no signs of that," the source said.
thf is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:09
  #943 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2010
Location: PLanet Earth
Posts: 793
Originally Posted by Leightman 957 View Post
I find it odd that the discovery of the HS pieces (I still haven't seen pics of both) has been met with quick general prune agreement that they failed in direct shear due to aerodynamic forces from tumbling at Speed
I doubt that once separated from the rest of the fuselage forces would be sufficient to shed the feathers. The tail assembly is very strong and the mass of that section behind the RPB is not very big. Moreover I don't see why that section should 'tumble' when separated. It is basically a dart and would probably stabilize quickly.
IMHO that shearing of the HS would only happen as long as it was still attached to the fuselage.

....while at the same time no one disputes a nose down rotation, negative G tuck by the fuselage minus tail at the very same airspeed, where the wings very apparently did NOT fold up....AND that forces on the wings were sufficient to strip of both engines off the wings. Why did the wings remain intact spanwise?
Relevant question!

So, let's have a look at it:
The Event started at ~250kts IAS but according to the FR24 data Speed dropped quickly to below 200kts. I don't know the exact max cl of the A321 wing in negative directions, but 1g stall Speed of the inverted wing should be somewehere around 150 - 160kts min. I don't know the max negative g the A321 wing will take but let's assume 2,5g. That would mean ít would reach its lift limit at 240 - 250kts. In other words: at the speeds we are talking about it is entirely conceivable that the wings didn't shear off even in case of a bunt over pretty quickly after the initiating Event.

So a possible Scenario remains: Something caused a rapid and massive excursion of the THS/Elevator. This causes the HS to fail. Aircraft starts to bunt over putting enormous load on the VS and rear fuselage, causing the fueslage directly aft of the CWB to collapse.
Possibly the otherwise historically almost undestructible VS hits parts of the fuselage/structure in this disintegration process. and fuel lines to the Center tank being severed (/the Auxiliary Center tank disintegrating -did this one have one installed?) releasing fuel into the open tube of the rear fuselage - being ignited by sparks from severed electrical lines.

Not saying this was the case, just it still appears to remain a conceivable Scenario within the limited Facts we have so far.
henra is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:10
  #944 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Hotel Sheets, Downtown Plunketville
Age: 72
Posts: 687
I would have thought time to call it a day on which bit came off when and how and why and what was turning and when it stopped and why. Could there now be much doubt and speculation left as to how this aircraft fell out of a clear blue sky.

No government takes a decision to suspend flights to such a popular destination lightly. There must be more than good reason for such a decision. The first admission of responsibility by ISIS was not accepted by Egypt, now after the second one and with more evidence having been examined by those in the know, how could the threat be ignored. The target must have been the Egyptian economy and its government. Naturally they wish to protect it. Our government must protect the lives of our citizens. In suspending all flights they have done precisely that.

I don`t know how many tourists of many different nationalities may be stuck there currently, but it sure looks a tough one to get them out of there quickly and bring them home safely. It looks like a busy week ahead to juggle all schedules in some semblance of order.

I wait to hear the outcome of the Cobra meeting, under way now.
Chronus is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:12
  #945 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Pittsburgh, PA, USA
Age: 47
Posts: 13
US Intelligence suggests bomb planted by ISIS

CNN)[Breaking news alert, posted at 3:08 p.m. ET Wednesday]

The latest U.S. intelligence suggests that the crash of Metrojet Flight 9268 was most likely caused by a bomb on the plane planted by ISIS or an ISIS affiliate, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter. The official stressed that there has not been a formal conclusion reached by the U.S. intelligence community. "There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," the official told CNN's Barbara Starr.
frankpgh is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:17
  #946 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Moscow, Russia
Age: 41
Posts: 9
With all due respect, I tend to disagree with my fellow armchair detective, if I may.

1) Plane was in relatively good condition and maintained adequately at least.
I'd rather state it as "aircraft-related paperwork was in good condition and maintained adequately". For a company that already had a hull loss due to inadequate maintenance (RA-85588, fire started by a short circuit), I wouldn't discount the possibility of taking some fatal shortcuts in maintaining their aircraft, as it did happen before.

2) Crew is experienced and rested
Experienced - yes, rested - how would you know for sure? I tend to agree though that crew action or inaction was, most likely, irrelevant to this particular accident.

3) No suspicious passengers onboard, no major delay or any other inconvenience through ground ops reported
4) T/O without issues and begin climbing OK
That's what we've been told so far, correct.

5) When reached about intended FL but before leveling something very brief (fraction of seconds) and violent happened INSIDE, plane was broken in parts and falls down.
Fair enough, although I wouldn't be so certain about the event taking "fraction of a second". It could just as well take, say, five or ten seconds, and again, one cannot really discount the possibility of a slowly developing, undetected malfunction that finally manifested itself as an in-flight breakup. (For once, imagine cargo hold smoke detectors inoperative.. not exactly an impossible scenario)

5.1) This event was so short that crew have no time to complete any action, so it's not stall or similar.
Or, alternatively, any actions of the crew were not enough to prevent the tragic outcome. Or, again, the crew could be unaware of a developing problem until it became too late. In any case, I agree that it's reasonable to discount the crew action as a direct cause of this event.

5.2) This even was followed (and possible is cause) of tail section detachment
Tail sections don't usually get detached by themselves, so this can't be attributed as a direct cause. An airplane that may, all of a sudden, shed its tail section by itself, is not exactly airworthy.

With all due respect, and no unconstructive criticism intended.
Iceheart is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:18
  #947 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: WA STATE
Age: 74
Posts: 1
Question A view- speculation

1) at normal level cruise- HS may have a slight leading edge elevation to provide tail lift- leverage to keep nose down. But during climb, leading edge of HS may be slightly lower than trailing edge to keep nose up.

2) At the time of leveling off, elevator trim changes from a few degrees nose up to nose down for level flight

3) At that time- something breaks, allowing HS to flip leading edge UP. Being uncontrolled, leading edge approaches vertical, putting tremendous loads on tal section aft of RPB, and virtually tearing off both HS fairly cleanly external to tail cone area.

IMO clues to the above are

1) both HS missing
2) said motion would put a major tensile load ( HS section just before separation ) on top half of fuselage and at the production join circumferential ahead of RPB and aft passenger exit door.

3) lower part would crumple in compression and eventually ( in a few seconds or less be torn off.

4) Plane absent HS makes rapid climb- and possible roll due to both HS not failing exactly as same time- thus damaging aft VS ( rudder )

At that point- the high g loads etc take over and tear off parts of fuselage, etc. - the rest is history

Summary- IMHO some sort of jackscrew, pin, clevis , or control failure of parts which normally keep the HS from flopping around was the instigator

One clue might be the condition of the RPB other than impact damage. IN my scenario, it is not a player. The tail cone would not rip off the bulhead simply because aft is not pressurised and skin stresses via rivets and bolts on the rim are much lower.

Comments ??

Last edited by CONSO; 4th Nov 2015 at 19:21. Reason: typos
CONSO is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:21
  #948 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 66
Reuters is saying that Egyptian sources close to the investigation believe there was an on-board explosion, although the cause is not confirmed.

Cause of Russian aeroplane crash looking more like explosion - source | Reuters
RTM Boy is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:24
  #949 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: Estonia
Posts: 71
which side engine

This is left side engine. you are watching at inner side of the pylon.



Video for comparision: Chances are that you are watching at the actual engine.
https://youtu.be/JmZ_Qc_J9bk?t=7s

Picture from video:

Last edited by Prada; 4th Nov 2015 at 21:13.
Prada is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:28
  #950 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2005
Location: Moscow, Russia
Posts: 1,022
Conso
3) At that time- something breaks, allowing HS to flip leading edge UP. Being uncontrolled, leading edge approaches vertical,
Again, I'm not familiar with construction but isn't here any natural limiters which prevent HS to travel more than allowed angle? As ex-engineer I will not allow any design without them.

Iceheart

1) Agreed about condition, still I'm sure this is not "живопырка airline" and not even close to condition of ill-fate RA-42434 so even if there was some issues I think we will newer found something major as for example total loss of thread on HS jack

5) I assume that preliminary CVR reading was done, that (looking at their photos) there was no technical loss of data and that real outcome from them was zero, no information of event which mean that CVR was lost before or in time of disaster and in sequence this mean that tail separation was inside of max couple seconds of event.
Kulverstukas is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:30
  #951 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Malta
Age: 51
Posts: 15
Why stop flights now

Hi All

Forgive me I am but an interested SLF

Can somebody pls tell me why the UK and others have suspended flights, downed plane was not from UK and attack not in UK

Could they have received a threat ???

Help I am confused

Chris
ExpatChris is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:32
  #952 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Sep 2014
Location: Canada
Posts: 1,257
Loss of confidence in the Sharm el-Sheikh airport security procedures, and Egyptian security capabilities in general.
peekay4 is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:38
  #953 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: UK
Posts: 66
A bomb on one plane at SSH could be on any plane - could have been a random act (ie to whichever plane the bomber could get access to) - we don't know - so anyone a possible target for all sorts of reasons
RTM Boy is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:38
  #954 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: Wellington,NZ
Age: 62
Posts: 1,631
Originally Posted by ExpatChris View Post
Hi All

Forgive me I am but an interested SLF

Can somebody pls tell me why the UK and others have suspended flights, downed plane was not from UK and attack not in UK

Could they have received a threat ???

Help I am confused

Chris
The news report I read this morning alluded to the possibility that airport security (vetting of bags, cargo etc) could not be guaranteed to be up to scratch.
The accident "fits'' with an onboard explosion, so until more is known this is a precautionary measure.
Makes sense to me.
Tarq57 is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:42
  #955 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Malta
Age: 51
Posts: 15
So a case of prevention better than cure then, thanks for info makes sense

Just being ultra cautious, author on Sky News states that IS could have infiltrated the ground crew
ExpatChris is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:42
  #956 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Germany
Posts: 36
Symmetry v/s bomb

So a possible Scenario remains: Something caused a rapid and massive excursion of the THS/Elevator. This causes the HS to fail. Aircraft starts to bunt over putting enormous load on the VS and rear fuselage, causing the fueslage directly aft of the CWB to collapse.
I think the same. Remarkable is the apparent symmetry of the damage overall. For me that speaks against a bomb, how probably would it be, that a bomb was placed in the center? (well, if somebody put it in the jackscrew or something like that, ok, but not if placed in baggage, loo, etc.).
I also think that the damage to the HS and VS could not happen once the tail was detached.
Mauersegler is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:43
  #957 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Location: EHAM
Posts: 41
CONSO:

That is also what I think. The decoloration in the HS torsion box and the fluid leaking outside point to an issue in this area. Also, the Metro Jet docs show that last year (in march) a C check was performed, not a D check.
StuntPilot is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:43
  #958 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Nov 2015
Location: Uk
Posts: 1
Engine failure followed by this kind of massive airframe failure would surely not occur in such a short timeframe that nothing is recorded on the FDRs? Engines are not bombs, they start to malfunction and then they disintegrate. Data would be recorded, and the pilots would see instruments recording odd parameters.

The lack of recorded info on the FDRs (I think we can assume there's nothing to be heard/recorded as they would have released details by now) is very reminiscent of the Ukraine Malaysia airlines incident... Massive loss of all system integrity caused by an explosion.

so if there is no trace of conventional explosive materials, what can cause such a loss of all systems that record what's happening in such a violent and instant way?
Toffee boy is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:43
  #959 (permalink)  
 
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: USA
Posts: 1
(CNN)[Breaking news alert, posted at 3:15 p.m. ET Wednesday]

The latest U.S. intelligence suggests that the crash of Metrojet Flight 9268 was most likely caused by a bomb on the plane planted by ISIS or an ISIS affiliate, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter. The official stressed that there has not been a formal conclusion reached by the U.S. intelligence community. "There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," the official told CNN's Barbara Starr.

The assessment was reached, the official said, by looking back at intelligence reports that had been gathered before Saturday's plane crash and intelligence gathered since then. The United States did not have credible or verified intelligence of a specific threat prior to the crash, however, the official said, prior to the incident, "there had been additional activity in Sinai that had caught our attention."
32bttln is offline  
Old 4th Nov 2015, 19:44
  #960 (permalink)  
I don't own this space under my name. I should have leased it while I still could
 
Join Date: Dec 2002
Location: Lincolnshire
Age: 76
Posts: 16,593
ExPatChris, it is a classic case of stable doors.

If there is one airport where you can be sure that security if top notch it will be SSH for at least the next week.
Pontius Navigator is offline  

Thread Tools
Search this Thread

Contact Us Archive Advertising Cookie Policy Privacy Statement Terms of Service

Copyright © 2018 MH Sub I, LLC dba Internet Brands. All rights reserved. Use of this site indicates your consent to the Terms of Use.