BREAKING NEWS: airliner missing within Egyptian FIR
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Dutch authorities have also suspended flight to/from SSH until at least Sunday. It is reported that the they will wait to see the findings of British investigation into security at SSH.
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I think we can't fully exclude structural causes
caused by initial destructive event on the left
Reuters
Source from Egypt:
Source from Russia:
The cause of a Russian plane crash in Egypt is looking more like an explosion but it is not clear whether it was linked to a fuel or engine trouble or a bomb, an Egyptian source close to the investigation said on Wednesday.
(...) "It is believed to be an explosion but what kind is not clear. There is an examination of the sand at the crash site to try and determine if it was a bomb," the source, who is close to the team investigating the black boxes, told Reuters.
"There are forensic investigations under way at the crash site. That will help determine the cause, to see if traces of explosives are found."
(...) "It is believed to be an explosion but what kind is not clear. There is an examination of the sand at the crash site to try and determine if it was a bomb," the source, who is close to the team investigating the black boxes, told Reuters.
"There are forensic investigations under way at the crash site. That will help determine the cause, to see if traces of explosives are found."
An investigation into the crash of a Russian plane in Egypt last Saturday is looking into the possibility of an object stowed on board causing the disaster, a Russian aviation source said on Wednesday.
"There are two versions now under consideration: something stowed inside (the plane) and a technical fault. But the airplane could not just break apart in the air – there should be some action. A rocket is unlikely as there are no signs of that," the source said.
"There are two versions now under consideration: something stowed inside (the plane) and a technical fault. But the airplane could not just break apart in the air – there should be some action. A rocket is unlikely as there are no signs of that," the source said.
IMHO that shearing of the HS would only happen as long as it was still attached to the fuselage.
....while at the same time no one disputes a nose down rotation, negative G tuck by the fuselage minus tail at the very same airspeed, where the wings very apparently did NOT fold up....AND that forces on the wings were sufficient to strip of both engines off the wings. Why did the wings remain intact spanwise?
So, let's have a look at it:
The Event started at ~250kts IAS but according to the FR24 data Speed dropped quickly to below 200kts. I don't know the exact max cl of the A321 wing in negative directions, but 1g stall Speed of the inverted wing should be somewehere around 150 - 160kts min. I don't know the max negative g the A321 wing will take but let's assume 2,5g. That would mean ít would reach its lift limit at 240 - 250kts. In other words: at the speeds we are talking about it is entirely conceivable that the wings didn't shear off even in case of a bunt over pretty quickly after the initiating Event.
So a possible Scenario remains: Something caused a rapid and massive excursion of the THS/Elevator. This causes the HS to fail. Aircraft starts to bunt over putting enormous load on the VS and rear fuselage, causing the fueslage directly aft of the CWB to collapse.
Possibly the otherwise historically almost undestructible VS hits parts of the fuselage/structure in this disintegration process. and fuel lines to the Center tank being severed (/the Auxiliary Center tank disintegrating -did this one have one installed?) releasing fuel into the open tube of the rear fuselage - being ignited by sparks from severed electrical lines.
Not saying this was the case, just it still appears to remain a conceivable Scenario within the limited Facts we have so far.
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I would have thought time to call it a day on which bit came off when and how and why and what was turning and when it stopped and why. Could there now be much doubt and speculation left as to how this aircraft fell out of a clear blue sky.
No government takes a decision to suspend flights to such a popular destination lightly. There must be more than good reason for such a decision. The first admission of responsibility by ISIS was not accepted by Egypt, now after the second one and with more evidence having been examined by those in the know, how could the threat be ignored. The target must have been the Egyptian economy and its government. Naturally they wish to protect it. Our government must protect the lives of our citizens. In suspending all flights they have done precisely that.
I don`t know how many tourists of many different nationalities may be stuck there currently, but it sure looks a tough one to get them out of there quickly and bring them home safely. It looks like a busy week ahead to juggle all schedules in some semblance of order.
I wait to hear the outcome of the Cobra meeting, under way now.
No government takes a decision to suspend flights to such a popular destination lightly. There must be more than good reason for such a decision. The first admission of responsibility by ISIS was not accepted by Egypt, now after the second one and with more evidence having been examined by those in the know, how could the threat be ignored. The target must have been the Egyptian economy and its government. Naturally they wish to protect it. Our government must protect the lives of our citizens. In suspending all flights they have done precisely that.
I don`t know how many tourists of many different nationalities may be stuck there currently, but it sure looks a tough one to get them out of there quickly and bring them home safely. It looks like a busy week ahead to juggle all schedules in some semblance of order.
I wait to hear the outcome of the Cobra meeting, under way now.
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US Intelligence suggests bomb planted by ISIS
CNN)[Breaking news alert, posted at 3:08 p.m. ET Wednesday]
The latest U.S. intelligence suggests that the crash of Metrojet Flight 9268 was most likely caused by a bomb on the plane planted by ISIS or an ISIS affiliate, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter. The official stressed that there has not been a formal conclusion reached by the U.S. intelligence community. "There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," the official told CNN's Barbara Starr.
The latest U.S. intelligence suggests that the crash of Metrojet Flight 9268 was most likely caused by a bomb on the plane planted by ISIS or an ISIS affiliate, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter. The official stressed that there has not been a formal conclusion reached by the U.S. intelligence community. "There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," the official told CNN's Barbara Starr.
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With all due respect, I tend to disagree with my fellow armchair detective, if I may.
I'd rather state it as "aircraft-related paperwork was in good condition and maintained adequately". For a company that already had a hull loss due to inadequate maintenance (RA-85588, fire started by a short circuit), I wouldn't discount the possibility of taking some fatal shortcuts in maintaining their aircraft, as it did happen before.
Experienced - yes, rested - how would you know for sure? I tend to agree though that crew action or inaction was, most likely, irrelevant to this particular accident.
That's what we've been told so far, correct.
Fair enough, although I wouldn't be so certain about the event taking "fraction of a second". It could just as well take, say, five or ten seconds, and again, one cannot really discount the possibility of a slowly developing, undetected malfunction that finally manifested itself as an in-flight breakup. (For once, imagine cargo hold smoke detectors inoperative.. not exactly an impossible scenario)
Or, alternatively, any actions of the crew were not enough to prevent the tragic outcome. Or, again, the crew could be unaware of a developing problem until it became too late. In any case, I agree that it's reasonable to discount the crew action as a direct cause of this event.
Tail sections don't usually get detached by themselves, so this can't be attributed as a direct cause. An airplane that may, all of a sudden, shed its tail section by itself, is not exactly airworthy.
With all due respect, and no unconstructive criticism intended.
1) Plane was in relatively good condition and maintained adequately at least.
2) Crew is experienced and rested
3) No suspicious passengers onboard, no major delay or any other inconvenience through ground ops reported
4) T/O without issues and begin climbing OK
4) T/O without issues and begin climbing OK
5) When reached about intended FL but before leveling something very brief (fraction of seconds) and violent happened INSIDE, plane was broken in parts and falls down.
5.1) This event was so short that crew have no time to complete any action, so it's not stall or similar.
5.2) This even was followed (and possible is cause) of tail section detachment
With all due respect, and no unconstructive criticism intended.
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A view- speculation
1) at normal level cruise- HS may have a slight leading edge elevation to provide tail lift- leverage to keep nose down. But during climb, leading edge of HS may be slightly lower than trailing edge to keep nose up.
2) At the time of leveling off, elevator trim changes from a few degrees nose up to nose down for level flight
3) At that time- something breaks, allowing HS to flip leading edge UP. Being uncontrolled, leading edge approaches vertical, putting tremendous loads on tal section aft of RPB, and virtually tearing off both HS fairly cleanly external to tail cone area.
IMO clues to the above are
1) both HS missing
2) said motion would put a major tensile load ( HS section just before separation ) on top half of fuselage and at the production join circumferential ahead of RPB and aft passenger exit door.
3) lower part would crumple in compression and eventually ( in a few seconds or less be torn off.
4) Plane absent HS makes rapid climb- and possible roll due to both HS not failing exactly as same time- thus damaging aft VS ( rudder )
At that point- the high g loads etc take over and tear off parts of fuselage, etc. - the rest is history
Summary- IMHO some sort of jackscrew, pin, clevis , or control failure of parts which normally keep the HS from flopping around was the instigator
One clue might be the condition of the RPB other than impact damage. IN my scenario, it is not a player. The tail cone would not rip off the bulhead simply because aft is not pressurised and skin stresses via rivets and bolts on the rim are much lower.
Comments ??
2) At the time of leveling off, elevator trim changes from a few degrees nose up to nose down for level flight
3) At that time- something breaks, allowing HS to flip leading edge UP. Being uncontrolled, leading edge approaches vertical, putting tremendous loads on tal section aft of RPB, and virtually tearing off both HS fairly cleanly external to tail cone area.
IMO clues to the above are
1) both HS missing
2) said motion would put a major tensile load ( HS section just before separation ) on top half of fuselage and at the production join circumferential ahead of RPB and aft passenger exit door.
3) lower part would crumple in compression and eventually ( in a few seconds or less be torn off.
4) Plane absent HS makes rapid climb- and possible roll due to both HS not failing exactly as same time- thus damaging aft VS ( rudder )
At that point- the high g loads etc take over and tear off parts of fuselage, etc. - the rest is history
Summary- IMHO some sort of jackscrew, pin, clevis , or control failure of parts which normally keep the HS from flopping around was the instigator
One clue might be the condition of the RPB other than impact damage. IN my scenario, it is not a player. The tail cone would not rip off the bulhead simply because aft is not pressurised and skin stresses via rivets and bolts on the rim are much lower.
Comments ??
Last edited by CONSO; 4th Nov 2015 at 19:21. Reason: typos
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Reuters is saying that Egyptian sources close to the investigation believe there was an on-board explosion, although the cause is not confirmed.
Cause of Russian aeroplane crash looking more like explosion - source | Reuters
Cause of Russian aeroplane crash looking more like explosion - source | Reuters
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which side engine
This is left side engine. you are watching at inner side of the pylon.
Video for comparision: Chances are that you are watching at the actual engine.
https://youtu.be/JmZ_Qc_J9bk?t=7s
Picture from video:
Video for comparision: Chances are that you are watching at the actual engine.
https://youtu.be/JmZ_Qc_J9bk?t=7s
Picture from video:
Last edited by Prada; 4th Nov 2015 at 21:13.
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Conso
Again, I'm not familiar with construction but isn't here any natural limiters which prevent HS to travel more than allowed angle? As ex-engineer I will not allow any design without them.
Iceheart
1) Agreed about condition, still I'm sure this is not "живопырка airline" and not even close to condition of ill-fate RA-42434 so even if there was some issues I think we will newer found something major as for example total loss of thread on HS jack
5) I assume that preliminary CVR reading was done, that (looking at their photos) there was no technical loss of data and that real outcome from them was zero, no information of event which mean that CVR was lost before or in time of disaster and in sequence this mean that tail separation was inside of max couple seconds of event.
3) At that time- something breaks, allowing HS to flip leading edge UP. Being uncontrolled, leading edge approaches vertical,
Iceheart
1) Agreed about condition, still I'm sure this is not "живопырка airline" and not even close to condition of ill-fate RA-42434 so even if there was some issues I think we will newer found something major as for example total loss of thread on HS jack
5) I assume that preliminary CVR reading was done, that (looking at their photos) there was no technical loss of data and that real outcome from them was zero, no information of event which mean that CVR was lost before or in time of disaster and in sequence this mean that tail separation was inside of max couple seconds of event.
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Why stop flights now
Hi All
Forgive me I am but an interested SLF
Can somebody pls tell me why the UK and others have suspended flights, downed plane was not from UK and attack not in UK
Could they have received a threat ???
Help I am confused
Chris
Forgive me I am but an interested SLF
Can somebody pls tell me why the UK and others have suspended flights, downed plane was not from UK and attack not in UK
Could they have received a threat ???
Help I am confused
Chris
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A bomb on one plane at SSH could be on any plane - could have been a random act (ie to whichever plane the bomber could get access to) - we don't know - so anyone a possible target for all sorts of reasons
The accident "fits'' with an onboard explosion, so until more is known this is a precautionary measure.
Makes sense to me.
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So a case of prevention better than cure then, thanks for info makes sense
Just being ultra cautious, author on Sky News states that IS could have infiltrated the ground crew
Just being ultra cautious, author on Sky News states that IS could have infiltrated the ground crew
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Symmetry v/s bomb
So a possible Scenario remains: Something caused a rapid and massive excursion of the THS/Elevator. This causes the HS to fail. Aircraft starts to bunt over putting enormous load on the VS and rear fuselage, causing the fueslage directly aft of the CWB to collapse.
I also think that the damage to the HS and VS could not happen once the tail was detached.
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CONSO:
That is also what I think. The decoloration in the HS torsion box and the fluid leaking outside point to an issue in this area. Also, the Metro Jet docs show that last year (in march) a C check was performed, not a D check.
That is also what I think. The decoloration in the HS torsion box and the fluid leaking outside point to an issue in this area. Also, the Metro Jet docs show that last year (in march) a C check was performed, not a D check.
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Engine failure followed by this kind of massive airframe failure would surely not occur in such a short timeframe that nothing is recorded on the FDRs? Engines are not bombs, they start to malfunction and then they disintegrate. Data would be recorded, and the pilots would see instruments recording odd parameters.
The lack of recorded info on the FDRs (I think we can assume there's nothing to be heard/recorded as they would have released details by now) is very reminiscent of the Ukraine Malaysia airlines incident... Massive loss of all system integrity caused by an explosion.
so if there is no trace of conventional explosive materials, what can cause such a loss of all systems that record what's happening in such a violent and instant way?
The lack of recorded info on the FDRs (I think we can assume there's nothing to be heard/recorded as they would have released details by now) is very reminiscent of the Ukraine Malaysia airlines incident... Massive loss of all system integrity caused by an explosion.
so if there is no trace of conventional explosive materials, what can cause such a loss of all systems that record what's happening in such a violent and instant way?
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(CNN)[Breaking news alert, posted at 3:15 p.m. ET Wednesday]
The latest U.S. intelligence suggests that the crash of Metrojet Flight 9268 was most likely caused by a bomb on the plane planted by ISIS or an ISIS affiliate, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter. The official stressed that there has not been a formal conclusion reached by the U.S. intelligence community. "There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," the official told CNN's Barbara Starr.
The assessment was reached, the official said, by looking back at intelligence reports that had been gathered before Saturday's plane crash and intelligence gathered since then. The United States did not have credible or verified intelligence of a specific threat prior to the crash, however, the official said, prior to the incident, "there had been additional activity in Sinai that had caught our attention."
The latest U.S. intelligence suggests that the crash of Metrojet Flight 9268 was most likely caused by a bomb on the plane planted by ISIS or an ISIS affiliate, according to a U.S. official familiar with the matter. The official stressed that there has not been a formal conclusion reached by the U.S. intelligence community. "There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," the official told CNN's Barbara Starr.
The assessment was reached, the official said, by looking back at intelligence reports that had been gathered before Saturday's plane crash and intelligence gathered since then. The United States did not have credible or verified intelligence of a specific threat prior to the crash, however, the official said, prior to the incident, "there had been additional activity in Sinai that had caught our attention."