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MH17 Update

Old 19th Aug 2015, 21:45
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"My belief is that the missile was stolen by them from Ukrainian military stocks in Eastern Ukraine, along with much other military hardware, and was fired at what was believed to be a Ukrainian military aircraft. There had been previous Ukraine military aircraft hit by these stolen Buks in the area as well. "

they bragged about stealing ukrainian BUKs, however I tend to believe Russia has delivered them

"A key question is why Malaysian were routing through this area when most other operators had rerouted away from it once these attacks became apparent."

That's the main problem, ATC has rerouted them without any plausible reason (that I could find). Now it's the material for conspiracy theorists...

"Meanwhile, other flights continue between Russia and Ukraine as normal; Moscow to Kiev is one of the busiest air routes in the former Soviet bloc, "

Yupp, just goes to prove how silly that war is.
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Old 20th Aug 2015, 16:40
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Where is the Source that MH17 was rerouted?
That was the Flightplan:
(FPL-MAS17-IS
-B772/H-SDFGHIJ3J5M1RWXY/LB1D1
-EHAM1000
-N0490F310 ARNEM UL620 SUVOX UZ713 OSN UL980 MOBSA DCT POVEL DCT SUI L980 UTOLU/N0490F330 L980 LDZ M70 BEMBI L980 PEKIT/N0480F350 L980 TAMAK/N0480F350 A87 TIROM/N0490F350 A87 MAMED B449 RANAH L750 ZB G201 BI DCT MURLI DCT TIGER/N0490F370 L333 KKJ L759 PUT R325 VIH A464 DAKUS DCT
-WMKK1137 WMSA WMKP
-EET/EDGG0017 EDWW0023 EDUU0036 EPWW0052 UKLV0135 UKBV0153 UKDV0225 URRV0255 UATT0347 UTAK0411 UTAA0432 UTAV0507 OAKX0518 OPLR0601 OPKR0616 VIDF0631 VABF0725 VECF0747 VYYF0926 VOMF0930 VTBB1013 WMFC1051 REG/9MMRD PBN/A1B1C1D1L1O1S2 SEL/QREJ DOF/140717 RMK/ACASII EQUIPPED)

TAMAK/N0480F350 A87 TIROM/N0490F350 A87 MAMED
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Old 20th Aug 2015, 18:23
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I've seen it on ukrainian aviation forum but can't remember exactly where now, maybe I didn't understand properly
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Old 21st Aug 2015, 05:30
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MH17 follows the Flight Plan, but can´t climb at PEKIT to FL350. Just before the downing, Rostov ATC wants a change to RND insteed of TAMAK.
The Reason was "we have three of them". But on this Vids there is nothing to see nearby Rostov about a Traffic problem
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aERAG7gFVs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hh06SqVx_1Q

So why wants Rostov ATC a Route Change? I heard from an UA ATC that a Route change is not normal from RND, normaly they want a change of FL.
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Old 17th Sep 2015, 15:57
  #25 (permalink)  
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The final report will be published on 13 October according the Dutch OVV ..
The report will only be technical they warn , not determining who did it.
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Old 10th Oct 2015, 01:34
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Russian Missile Maker to explain disaster...

Russian maker of missile that destroyed MH17 to explain disaster

Almaz-Antey, the maker of the BUK surface-to-air system that the West and Kiev believe downed MH17, said it would present its version of events at a press conference on Tuesday after holding an "experiment" that entailed detonating a missile next to a plane......
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Old 10th Oct 2015, 03:33
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Static test next to useless

There's an energy difference of a few mach between encountering warhead fragments with zero relative motion between the sample aircraft and warhead.

Atmospheric density at ground level will yield a smaller kill radius than at FL370.

A pressurised fuselage at M.8 will tend to tear itself apart when structurally damaged while an unpressurised fuselage at rest will just sit there.
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Old 11th Oct 2015, 11:32
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Sure, because a BUK missile with 75 kg of high explosive and fragments cannot shoot a passenger plane out of the sky and therefore we must conclude that MH-17 was downed by Elvis, right?

An exploding tape recorder can take down a 747. This is an entire book chapter on what flimsy MANPADS can do http://mercury.ethz.ch/serviceengine...ca88e/en/1.pdf . But a 5.5m long missile designed to shoot planes out of the sky at a 40 km range would never take down MH-17.
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 10:25
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I am waiting with excitement for the Dutch final report, coming later today, Tuesday 13th of Oct. Hopefully they will be more on time than the French and their AirAsia investigation, hmmmm...

Many newspapers have reported on the coming report lately, and Russian news have already tried to debunk claims from the not-yet-released report, LOL! One missile maker has concluded that the whole report is bollocks and of course they did not manufacture the offending non-missile that did not take down MH17.
Here is one English report on the missile manufacturers response: Russian Missile-Maker Contradicts Dutch MH17 Crash Report - ABC News

The Dutch Safety Board will publish on their English version of the site Dutch Safety Board in a few hours. Meanwhile you can read about monster trucks and shipping incidents....
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 10:42
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GorseFires Collectif ‏@GorseFires 4 minHá 4 minutos
The cockpit was hit first and and broke off from the rest of the plane #MH17 (Dutch Safety Board)

Russian Market Retweeted
Gordon Darroch ‏@GordonDarroch 4 minHá 4 minutos
Dutch Safety Board: Ukrainian airspace should have been closed at time of #MH17 crash, risk not properly evaluated.

Good they have mentioned it.
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 10:45
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"The results of our experiment contradict the Dutch report," said Yan Novikov, the general director of the company. "It can now be clearly said that if a rocket was used it was a Buk 9M38, not a Buk 9M38M1, fired from the area of Zaroshchensk.

"The only thing that we do not yet understand are why fragments of 9M38m1 are amongst the evidence."
Sounds like they have been told what to, "understand"!

Video: MH17: Russian missile company seeks to debunk official report into air disaster - Telegraph
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 11:52
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So we finally come full circle and can once again safely assume that navigating over an active war-zone can be really deleterious to the health and safety of one's passengers and crew. At least we can now confidently exclude the excited ramblings of the less mentally stable and/or more rabidly nationalistic among us. Any further discussion on this subject will most likely continue to be decidedly within the realm of the conspiracy theorists and political agitators who have come to infest this site.

Last edited by Aeroncabat; 13th Oct 2015 at 12:04.
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 12:21
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=163&v=KDiLEyT9spI

Looks like a thorough investigation at least.
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 13:47
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Given what happened to MS17, can I ask about any similar safety implications to all those aircraft routing Europe- Middle East?. I appreciate that most commercial carriers are avoiding Syria & Iraq and are routing Turkey-Iran airspace. I presume Russian missiles are being launched from the Caspian sea. Are risk assessments made about this airspace? - whereas in MH17 Ukraine this didn't take place.
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 13:49
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Post Info links to remain in the loop

Final report document: http://cdn.onderzoeksraad.nl/documen...7-crash-en.pdf

Final report summary from Aviation Herald (factual source without sensationalism): Crash: Malaysia B772 near Donetsk on Jul 17th 2014, aircraft was shot down

Video reconstruction of the flight (3 min): Animatie vlucht MH17 | NOS

Video reconstruction of the impact (2 min): Animatie neerhalen MH17 | NOS
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 14:04
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Originally Posted by Mr A Tis
Given what happened to MS17, can I ask about any similar safety implications to all those aircraft routing Europe- Middle East?. I appreciate that most commercial carriers are avoiding Syria & Iraq and are routing Turkey-Iran airspace. I presume Russian missiles are being launched from the Caspian sea. Are risk assessments made about this airspace? - whereas in MH17 Ukraine this didn't take place.
If the Russian cruise missiles are what you are referring to, they don't go up to FL altitudes. They go up in the air, and then tend to fly to their target at low level to take advantage of terrain masking. The most recent launch was a Russian Missile very similar to a Tomahawk. Those, at least, aren't a risk to commercial air carriers except in the terminal area during approach/landing, or takeoff/departure -- and that is if whomever launched it didn't do any mission planning.
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 14:23
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Apart from a reference in an image caption on page 127, no other credit or reference to Pprune which seems to have predicted everything on the luchtime TV news - in these pages, months ago.
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 14:36
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They have released a bunch of materials: the MH-17 report, a separate report about passenger information, an 'about the investigation' document, a brochure, videos and a media package consisting of photos and videos. It is all here: Dutch Safety Board
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 17:06
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Apart from a reference in an image caption on page 127, no other credit or reference to PPRuNe which seems to have predicted everything on the luchtime TV news - in these pages, months ago.
Shirley you're not serious?
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Old 13th Oct 2015, 17:16
  #40 (permalink)  

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Gridl0k - It was all fairly clear on the day itself mate. The rebels should not have bragged about downing an aircraft before checking what they had actually downed.

Go back to the original thread, or see my post from a couple of months ago.
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