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Flaperon washes up on Reunion Island

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Flaperon washes up on Reunion Island

Old 1st Sep 2015, 10:27
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Press Conference in progress

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Old 1st Sep 2015, 10:41
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Please list the incidents where a Boeing 777 is reported to have lost (shed) ANY empennage, flaps, slats, spoilers, ailerons, landing gear doors, etc. Thank you. I await your edified and informed response.
Is it also acceptable to list all the Boeing 777 which have been scrapped, and all flaperons which have been scrapped because of damage, and can no longer be traced ?
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Old 1st Sep 2015, 10:42
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Quote from captains_log:
"Wait a minute i read here...not long ago, as long as the flaperon cannot be proved without doubt it belongs to MH370 then it stays with investigators in France?"

Yes, and I think most of us would be happier for it to stay in France for further examination than the alternative.

Quote from mm43:
"Let's be a little more positive and accept that a flaperon has been found, and at this time concede that there is possibly some doubt as to its origin, but proceed positively."

Yes, and no doubt the experts from various countries and organisations have been working on that basis. My guess is that it would be difficult to obtain a matching flaperon in serviceable condition and then expose it to forces successfully simulating a detachment either in flight or on an aircraft's impact with the sea, followed by over a year in the Indian Ocean. Sooner or later, expert examination would uncover anomalies. Fortunately, the two objectives of examination may not be mutually conflicting?
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Old 1st Sep 2015, 10:52
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To the Germans saying the search is in the wrong place, | Perth Now
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Old 1st Sep 2015, 12:49
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Is it time to reevaluate the search process ?

Find MH370 Using Autonomous Underwater Vehicles | Commercial Aviation content from Aviation Week

To do so, the Metron Bayesian framework could greatly help (like for the AF447 phase IV search): it enables to integrate all the search data whether positive (possibly, for the flaperon discovery*) or nagative/unsuccessful** (which is also a piece of information) which is the case for all the search paths done in the Indian Ocean (which is already a rich, large database).

* what was done in
https://www.dropbox.com/s/m6qknxrr7q...Aug%202015.pdf

** what was done in
https://metsci.com/Portals/0/Search%...20AF%20447.pdf

Other more complete drifting models, including wind forcing & wave interaction (ATSB, CSIRO, German modified Sebille's transport model, USCG, US Navy, ...) should also be tested under this same Bayesian framework.

Last edited by Hyperveloce; 1st Sep 2015 at 13:10. Reason: Adding drift models (USCG & US Navy), see the AF447 search
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Old 1st Sep 2015, 13:30
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A "probability map" from the German Scientists.
Looks like only the very northern part of the last arc matches the ocean drift simulation. And most of it is far away from the arc.
Maybe the flaperon is indeed from a third world junk yard where a non-recycleable part ended when a 777 was scrapped...
Or it is indeed impossible to track a floating item back to its origin.
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Old 1st Sep 2015, 16:00
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Close-up of the bonded on ID plate on a new flaperon.

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Old 1st Sep 2015, 17:15
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Refy Geomar map posted by Volume:

http://www.geomar.de/fileadmin/conte...reunion_de.pdf

Could the Flaperon have been lost at a previous stage of the A/C journey along the INMARSAT curve ?

Last edited by ettore; 1st Sep 2015 at 17:20. Reason: Source
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Old 1st Sep 2015, 17:56
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Originally Posted by ettore
Could the Flaperon have been lost at a previous stage of the A/C journey along the INMARSAT curve ?
The aircraft didn't fly along the Inmarsat curve(s). They aren't intended to represent its track.
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Old 1st Sep 2015, 18:53
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Originally Posted by DaveReidUK
The aircraft didn't fly along the Inmarsat curve(s). They aren't intended to represent its track.
... rephrasing the question: could the flaperon have been lost at a previous stage of the A/C journey toward the 7th INMARSAT curve ?
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Old 1st Sep 2015, 19:00
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Dave, thanks for taking the time to help me with the process. As you point out EADS-CASA – absent a data plate – can only provide indirect evidence. I'm sorry that I may have wasted your time. I'd worked out the logic – I just needed conformation, since I could not believe how daft the CNN news item was.


I await news (from France?) with some interest. If there where the expected correlation between the manufacturers data and the maintenance records, I should have expected an announcement long before now. I wonder if the silence indicates that all is not well in that regard?


Regards,


Bash.
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Old 1st Sep 2015, 19:01
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Talking

William of Occam was from "old Europe", too, but you wouldn't know it from reading this thread. First, a plane disappears without a peep, and while it's fairly obvious that somebody sitting in the cockpit made it happen, we must eliminate the CIA, Mossad, and Martians from the suspect list. Now a piece from a 777 washes up in the ocean in which we're fairly sure a 777 sank, but we need to make sure it wasn't, you know, tossed in the ocean at Diego Garcia by whoever is preparing the 777 and its zombie passengers for, eh, whatever nefarious purpose they must have!

Get a grip.
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Old 1st Sep 2015, 22:51
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While on the subject of Occam's Razor:

Originally Posted by Hyperveloce
could the flaperon have been lost at a previous stage of the A/C journey toward the 7th INMARSAT curve ?
Yes, it's possible.

But if we're talking about a flaperon from an aircraft that almost certainly went down in the ocean, then I'm sure you will agree that it's much more likely that the flaperon detached upon impact with the sea, rather than falling off in flight. I'm not aware of any recorded instances of the latter happening to a 777.
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Old 1st Sep 2015, 23:32
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I wonder if the silence indicates that all is not well in that regard?
The silence from the French investigation team is easily explained by the fact that at this time of year, the French as a whole, take their annual 4 or 5 weeks vacations, and head for the coast. I'm sure that in the fullness of time, all will be revealed.

Let's not forget, amongst all the wild theories of "other scrap B777 components" being the source of the flaperon - that a total of 1320 B777's (all variants) have been built to July 2015, and only 5 hull losses have been incurred by this model.
1265 B777's are currently in regular use by airlines, the remaining numbers can be tracked down and identified, and are either in storage, or in the process of sale, or undergoing maintenance/repair.
Of the 5 B777 hull losses, only 1 hasn't been recovered. That hull is MH370.

For a flaperon from the other 4 B777 hulls lost, to show up on the shores of Reunion Island, is about as likely as your chances of winning 1st prize in the EuroMillions lottery - particularly when MH370 disappeared in the Eastern part of the Indian Ocean, and flotsam from that area regularly washes up on Reunion.
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Old 2nd Sep 2015, 06:30
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.Let's not forget, amongst all the wild theories of "other scrap B777 components" being the source of the flaperon - that a total of 1320 B777's (all variants) have been built to July 2015, and only 5 hull losses have been incurred by this model.
At least 3 ADs about attachement issues were released.483 B777 are affected by this one only:

http://rgl.faa.gov/Regulatory_and_Guidance_Library/rgAD.nsf/0/eb53c736eb04bcb4862570d900590daf/$FILE/2005-25-24.pdf

A worn attachement might lead to damage due to vibration or overload of a flaperon.
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Old 2nd Sep 2015, 08:01
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Can anyone clear up my lack of understanding as to how the missing data plate was bonded to the component and how that entire bonding could have failed. I have not as yet seen that discussed here

Thanks. El G.
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Old 2nd Sep 2015, 08:33
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how that entire bonding could have failed

Oxygen rich seawater is highly corrosive. Even stainless steel will rust if exposed to such conditions for a long period. Add to it the possible effect of heating cycles by the tropical sun if seas are calm. Corrosion coupled with constant batter by waves will eventually dislodge anything that is not firmly bolted. Just look at the state of various flotsam that ends up on beaches.
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Old 2nd Sep 2015, 09:47
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Unfortunately, adding to the uncertainty, removing the data plate is also the first step in scrapping a traceable component.
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Old 2nd Sep 2015, 09:59
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Originally Posted by Lemain
TRF4EVR -- OK, so can you sketch out how one (or both) bods at the front could have made the flight disappear in the way it did, with no trace, no signals, no radar plot... If he/they wanted to, how could they possibly have done it? If you can find a rational answer to that you have come up with the most plausible theory to date

and later post

Not many recorded cases of a 777 exceeding Vne with no contact from the cockpit, either. Bomb or shot down cannot be ruled out. .
Go to the first thread where this was hammered to death.
The answer is it was thought one of the pilots taking control of the aircraft was the simplest therefore more likely explanation for all of the recorded facts.

Note that it was not "with no trace, no signals, no radar plot".

Summary: The aircraft was tracked by a military 3D radar while each of its cooperative surveillance systems stopped transmitting, ACARS stopped, no RT. It then (if reports are to be believed) climbed to close to its ceiling as it turned back then descended relatively low as it crossed the peninsula- following the Thai border. The aircraft then turned North along the Malacca Straits then around the top end of Indonesia North of Banda Aceh where it turned West till out of radar range. Meanwhile it was providing signals from a system that pilots did not (then) know about the SatCom antenna systems were shaking hands with the IMARSAT satellite. Due to doppler effects of the satellite and aircraft motion, INMARSAT could provide range rings from their satellite's position that matched the original primary radar plotted flight. Using maths that has been crawled over by world experts, it was shown that the aircraft stayed airborne for more than 6 hours with the INMARSAT system reporting ranges from the handshakes and an initial attempted call on SatCom. The only path that makes sense on these range rings is a flight South from the North West of Indonesia to around 1000 miles off Perth, Australia. The computed path and range rings do not match a flight to Diego Garcia or the Maldives. Now a flaperon from a 777 washes up on La Reunion an area that was forecast over a year ago to be the likely place to find any floating debris from MH370 had it ditched in the area computed from the INMARSAT range rings. Had a 777 done a 'Sullenbeger' controlled ditching in the ocean one of the parts most likely to be torn off in the ditching would be a flaperon. This flaperon has damage not inconsistent with being torn off by a ditching and has barnacles growing on it that are of the right age to match the time of a ditching.

Each of the above are high probabilities only, with a few being much higher probabilities than others. But taken as a set the probabilities add up to a high level of certainty that someone on board took control of the aircraft flew the aircraft out beyond Malaysian, Thai and Indonesian radar cover then turned South from its last radar contact and flew on for hours to the South Indian Ocean until close to, or at fuel exhaustion and ditched. All the other explanations fail to meet the other facts/probabilities of the case.
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Old 2nd Sep 2015, 10:51
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Very interesting

thanks for that no-hoper. These directives make it technically
possible for that flaperon to be from a different B777. But I think that Occam's razor would make it awfully unlikely for it to be from a different B777 that just happened to be flying over the Indian Ocean in the same general time frame. If such an in-flight event did happen one would guess there would be lot of documentation about it, not the least of which would be an order to replace such a part from said airline to Boeing or to an "after-market" supplier.

I do think that it is important to keep ones confirmation bias in check and be thorough in the workup of this flaperon. One would presume that this is exactly what the French are doing.
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