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Flaperon washes up on Reunion Island

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Flaperon washes up on Reunion Island

Old 9th Dec 2015, 16:22
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Nothing new here

I agree with Mad (Flt) Scientist - the media story is just nonsense, as far as I can tell from reading the report. I see nothing new - just an explanation of the latest analysis.
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Old 9th Dec 2015, 16:50
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I am baffled as to how the writer comes to conclusions such as in the article. I have read the report, twice now, and find no indication about any knowledge of anything related to the flight other than what is already known.

I applaud the Australians for their effort. It is a true testament to courage and dedication to search like they do! As a side effect we also get to know stuff about our oceans... you never know when that may come in handy - the search for oil may benefit from lessons learned here!
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Old 9th Dec 2015, 19:17
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Captain Hardy's predicted position

didnt ATSB say only a few weeks ago that they were going to look at the above position? as I recall he reckons it is around 20nm outside the official search area. ATSB's latest report seems not to refer to it.
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Old 9th Dec 2015, 21:03
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captain hardy's position

further to above; From the centre of the hotspot on Peabody's chart, to Hardy's position of
S 39 22' 46'' E087 06' 20'' looks to be around 200km ie 108nm to the south west. It seems Hardys position was due to be included in the search around 3rd december but due to one of the Fugros having to leave with a sick crew member it has not yet occurred but may be, quite soon one assumes. stand by for Eureka sound.
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Old 10th Dec 2015, 02:48
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Portmanteau,



Have another look at the co-ords on the diagram; I think Hardy's predicted position has been covered.
Peabody
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Old 10th Dec 2015, 03:28
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you never know when that may come in handy - the search for oil may benefit from lessons learned here!
MrSnuggles,

Speaking as an oil explorer, I have to say this is extremely unlikely. Deep ocean basins like this one are not places that oil will be found - the geological history is wrong - and the technology being used in the search is not directly applicable to exploring for oil. Its main, well-established use in my industry is seabed mapping for pipeline routes and drilling platform locations.
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Old 10th Dec 2015, 10:28
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ExV238 . . .

I'm also familiar with the likely inaccuracy of a forecast QNH for an remote oceanic area hundreds of miles away and hours ahead; the speed at which an aircraft would be flying in clean configuration; the near impossibility that both engines would run out of fuel at the same instant, thus avoiding some sideslip on impact; the effect of crosswind on touchdown; the autopilot behaviour approaching the stall; the unpredictable pitch attitude on impact; the....ah, whatever!
Without splitting hairs over QNH, wind, crab angle, speed, flaps up or down or in between, simultaneous flame out or sequential flame out, . . . it's good that you are familiar and can fully comprehend the theory that a rogue pilot's programmed low speed, low altitude flame out would result in a significantly reduced airframe breakup than a flamed out jet at cruise speed spiraling down from high altitude. This theory might explain the lack of debris found so far.
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Old 10th Dec 2015, 12:07
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Glueball,

OK, but my post was in response to:

A programmed A/P ditching cannot be excluded.

A flight path with random waypoint crossings at 100 feet at slow speed could produce a low energy wings-level splashdown upon fuel exhaustion, long after the suicidal pilot had switched off the packs and leisurely asphyxiated himself and everyone else.
A 'programmed A/P ditching' is not a function available, and I was pointing out that a 'low energy wings level splashdown' cannot be achieved by pilotless 777 other than with unimaginable luck.
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Old 10th Dec 2015, 19:03
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The explanation is simple.

Glueball: "a rogue pilot's programmed low speed, low altitude flame out would result in a significantly reduced airframe breakup than a flamed out jet at cruise speed spiraling down from high altitude. This theory might explain the lack of debris found so far."

The "lack of debris" has a simple explanation, elaborate scenarios are not necessary. The aircraft went down in a remote part of a very large ocean. It was 10 days before they even shifted the search to the right ocean, and even then they had only a few search assets to cover an enormous swath of stormy ocean. The debris was there, but most of it sank before the search started, and the rest, including the flaperon was dispersed and displaced by wind and currents. As the search ramped up and the search area was refined, the sinking, dispersion, and displacement continued. Searching huge swaths of rough sea far from the nearest airport was a long shot, and when they did see floating debris they had no way to tell exactly what it was.

Compare that with AF447, where they found floating debris the next day, because they knew where it went down. If they had waited 10 days, and then started searching a huge swath of the South Atlantic it would have been a different story.
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Old 10th Dec 2015, 20:31
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... and then started searching a huge swath of the South Atlantic it would have been a different story.
It certainly would have been!

Since when has 3°33'N been in the South Atlantic?
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Old 10th Dec 2015, 22:22
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MM43: "Since when has 3°33'N been in the South Atlantic?"

Ah, but that's not where the last radio contact was, nor where the floating debris was found. Where was it found? Now extrapolate- where would it be in 10 days?
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Old 11th Dec 2015, 03:05
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Originally Posted by PrivtPilotRadarTech
... but that's not where the last radio contact was, nor where the floating debris was found.
Oops! A little stuff up - should have been 3° 03N.

01:33:15 INTOL 1°21.7S 32°49.9W via ATLANTICO HF
02:10:25 AOC...2°58.8N 30°35.4W via ACARS Rec'd 02:10:34

Found 3°03'57"N 30°33'42"W and 018.35°T / 5.448NM from LKP.

Always search from the Last Known Position.

Now lets look at MH370; should that be in the South China Sea [LKP - SSR], Andaman Sea [PSR?], South Indian Ocean [BTO/BFO], or try working back from Le Reunion Is.

However, in the case of AF447 the floating debris and bodies moved rapidly east then north, and the Vertical Stabilizer was recovered from 3°28.4N 30°40.9W on 2009-06-07 1825z. It was actually tracking to the SW at time of recovery.
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 09:25
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Image size

Kenyon, could you please edit your post to remove the image and post a smaller one, the page is now so wide it is unreadable on many screens.
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 13:46
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Here ???
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Old 7th Jan 2016, 13:46
  #875 (permalink)  
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Hi Kenyon,

You're welcomed to repost with an image size not exceeding 600 x 800...
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Old 8th Jan 2016, 20:42
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MH370 Flaperon Failure Analysis - Corrected Graphic

Hello Gysbreght, Thank you for pointing out my % surface error (a simple division error tripped me up) in your post referenced below:
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/565335-flaperon-washes-up-reunion-island-42.html#post9195314



My MH370 Flaperon Failure Analysis (Rev 2.0) report was updated and submitted to the IG team on December 7, 2014. It includes the following graphic with the corrected % surface area as well as other updates and failure analysis. The report also includes a reference to your notice of errata.


Thank you for contributing and helping to make the report more accurate. Public review and valued feedback was a goal of releasing the preliminary report... cheers, Tom
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Old 13th Jan 2016, 17:32
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Not directly pertinent, but it shows how good the sonar technology involved in the search for MH370 is.

MH370 searchers stumble across 200-year-old shipwreck, but no plane - Telegraph
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Old 14th Jan 2016, 03:02
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This was news to me:

"In the absence of credible new information that leads to the identification of a specific location of the aircraft, governments have agreed that there will be no further expansion of the search area," Australia's Joint Agency Coordination Centre (JACC), which is overseeing international search efforts, said in a statement.
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Old 14th Jan 2016, 03:49
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CD: would you have the search continue endlessly & aimlessly, with no new indications of possible areas?

If MH370 isn't found by mid-year, it won't be because of any lack of trying.

Dean
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Old 14th Jan 2016, 12:56
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Originally Posted by core_dump
This was news to me:
Pretty sure that's what they said last year when they agreed to expand the search area. Searching everywhere that the aircraft could have reached from the final arc would take ten years or more.
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