Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore
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Really good discussion and points from everyone in this recent automation back-and-forth; wanted to say thanks because the respectful and knowledgable disagreements are a great service to all (and a great example to e.g. the media as to the "right" way to approach accident issues (with humility)).
@ekw -- Just couldn't let you leave it at "humans pushing the risk envelope, due to e.g. subtle economic pressures" without also mentioning that automation itself is a large factor in pilot (over?-)comfort in pushing that same envelope.
@Bloggs -- I'm pretty sure ekw meant "humans" in the larger sense, i.e. not just "pilots". Airline schedulers, ATC, and yes even PAX whose cross-Atlantic desires resulted in these pressures. Not blaming the victims, just saying planes would not even be in the air at all except for "humans put them there".
@ekw -- Just couldn't let you leave it at "humans pushing the risk envelope, due to e.g. subtle economic pressures" without also mentioning that automation itself is a large factor in pilot (over?-)comfort in pushing that same envelope.
@Bloggs -- I'm pretty sure ekw meant "humans" in the larger sense, i.e. not just "pilots". Airline schedulers, ATC, and yes even PAX whose cross-Atlantic desires resulted in these pressures. Not blaming the victims, just saying planes would not even be in the air at all except for "humans put them there".
Last edited by jientho; 31st Dec 2014 at 09:47.
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Ranger one:You're telling us what the crew did - even as the first bodies are being pulled from the water - AND you're repeatedly dissing Airbus with no justification.
Too much praise on Airbus planes. I am just real.
Exactly my words earlier on the forum:
"
Aviation expert Geoffrey Thomas spoke to several check captains and believes the pilot of QZ8501 encountered difficult weather conditions but flew too slow in his efforts to avoid it.
'The QZ8501 was flying too slow, about 100 knots which is about 160 km/h too slow. At that altitude that's exceedingly dangerous,' Mr Thomas said.
'Pilots believe that the crew, in trying to avoid the thunderstorm by climbing, somehow have found themselves flying too slow and thus induced an aerodynamic stall similar to the circumstances of the loss of Air France AF447 to crash in 2009.'
'I have a radar plot which shows him at 36,000 feet and climbing at a speed of 353 knots, which is approximately 100 knots too slow ... if the radar return is correct, he appears to be going too slow for the altitude he is flying at,' Mr Thomas said."
All the best.
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It's an interesting one but will have to wait and see, at least they found the thing this time, they were refused a climb to avoid bad weather but that shouldn't bring down an Airbus.
I quote "In the A320 family, accidents and incidents range from fan-cowl detachment, landing gear collapse, bird strikes right through to hull-losses through pilot error. Most aircraft have teething problems and in most cases these are eradicated. Very rarely, these issues cause disasters -- largely because of a culmination of factors that lead to the event."
It's the same with AFR447, not one single event brought down this aircraft out of the sky. But this seems a very sudden incident.
I quote "In the A320 family, accidents and incidents range from fan-cowl detachment, landing gear collapse, bird strikes right through to hull-losses through pilot error. Most aircraft have teething problems and in most cases these are eradicated. Very rarely, these issues cause disasters -- largely because of a culmination of factors that lead to the event."
It's the same with AFR447, not one single event brought down this aircraft out of the sky. But this seems a very sudden incident.
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How does bank angle limiting work in the bus at high altitude? On the 73, one has to manually select the bank limit in HDG SEL - I assume the bus is more sophisticated and does it automatically, or can one bank the aircraft into buffet at high altitude like you can in brand B?
The protection tightens to 45 degrees if High Speed protection mode is activated. Plus there is a separate AOA protection.
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nothing can be ruled out, BUT you can make a good assumption that it wasn't a ditching and therefore some may have got out, solely due to the fact that there was no further communication from the pilots. if you are struggling to regain control you don't bother trying to contact anyone. if you are going to try and ditch then you sure as h**l let someone know so you can have some help on the way.
so all this speculation that there may have been survivors after a ditching is
so all this speculation that there may have been survivors after a ditching is
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@-golf_seirra #726
@ Mr.Peabody #727
As I said Im not familiar with the A320 so thanks for info.
On the other hand I am very familiar with A330, A340 and A380. None of these have sliderafts that will still have the gas cylinder attached after disconnection. So it must be different on A320 from what you are saying.
Also, since you told me that A320 uses chemical generators for the cabin drop out oxygen system we can rule that out too.
From your info, to me it looks like that is indeed the gas cylinder responsible to provide the inflation of the evacuation device.
As I posted earlier, the authorities will be able to establish pretty fast if that slideraft was likely to have been deployed and inflated by human intervention or not. They for sure will check if any gas was released into the raft and if it was actuated or accidental upon impact.
@ Mr.Peabody #727
As I said Im not familiar with the A320 so thanks for info.
On the other hand I am very familiar with A330, A340 and A380. None of these have sliderafts that will still have the gas cylinder attached after disconnection. So it must be different on A320 from what you are saying.
Also, since you told me that A320 uses chemical generators for the cabin drop out oxygen system we can rule that out too.
From your info, to me it looks like that is indeed the gas cylinder responsible to provide the inflation of the evacuation device.
As I posted earlier, the authorities will be able to establish pretty fast if that slideraft was likely to have been deployed and inflated by human intervention or not. They for sure will check if any gas was released into the raft and if it was actuated or accidental upon impact.
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@highflyer re: possible "ditching". Ditch vs. Crash is a false dichotomy. Possible that pilots barely managed a barely-survivable touchdown. Also, lack of attempted comm is not a certainty. Blackboxes will tell.
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Chipping into the why cannot we track airliners reliably in the 21st century argument. I have a back of the cigarette packet idea that is in no way validated so be gentle...
How about a switch which forces FDRs and CVRs to start bleeping? They could even begin audibly/digitally broadcasting positional data on some defined frequency.
In fact go one step further, make it happen automatically and as soon as an "emergency" condition is sensed for at least the following:
A few stations tuned into the said frequency could then alert the authorities. In this day and age, I agree, it seems nonsensical that we must wait for impact before positional data or pings are broadcast. Better that position data is sent before impact whilst the aircraft still has the benefit of radio range, right?
How about a switch which forces FDRs and CVRs to start bleeping? They could even begin audibly/digitally broadcasting positional data on some defined frequency.
In fact go one step further, make it happen automatically and as soon as an "emergency" condition is sensed for at least the following:
- Stall condition (lasting more than 10 seconds)
- Engine Failure
- Overspeed (VMO + 30)
- VS below -7000fpm
- Transponder off or set to emergency codes
- Stuck mic (>2 minutes)
- etc
A few stations tuned into the said frequency could then alert the authorities. In this day and age, I agree, it seems nonsensical that we must wait for impact before positional data or pings are broadcast. Better that position data is sent before impact whilst the aircraft still has the benefit of radio range, right?
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Cb formation and the updrafts that cause them are far more rapid than most people understand. You may think that what you are looking at is a large stable storm, but it is more like a high speed lava lamp sometimes with a longer lasting core cell with shorter lived cells bubbling up around it and actually strengthening the core storm cell. The aircraft radar will show the rain that will be mainly in the downdraft part of the storm cells. It is perfectly possible for an aircraft to fly through an area with no or slight turbulence and a few minutes later a following aircraft experience severe turbulence. Updraft speeds can be of the order of 100Kts vertically. Put just one wing into a severe updraft and things can become too exciting rather rapidly. Unfortunately, the updraft is less likely to show as significant on radar and it may be associated with a short lived storm cell alongside the main storm, so the aircraft ahead had nothing remarkable and the one behind may not experience much either - you are the lucky one that found the updraft.
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jentho-
I disagree. any survivable ditching is going to require a fairly stable, fairly shallow glide to impact with the water, in which case one of the pilots would have been broadcasting a mayday and position report.
I seriously think the ditching theory can be put to bed.
I disagree. any survivable ditching is going to require a fairly stable, fairly shallow glide to impact with the water, in which case one of the pilots would have been broadcasting a mayday and position report.
I seriously think the ditching theory can be put to bed.
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After the Air France Flight 447 accident, the BEA recommended that EASA and the FAA should consider making it mandatory to have an angle of attack indicator directly accessible to pilots on board aeroplanes, has this happened????
Aviation safety expert and accident investigator C.B Sullenberger suggested that pilots would be able to better handle upsets of this type (Air France Flight 447) if they had an indication of the wing's angle of attack.
Aviation safety expert and accident investigator C.B Sullenberger suggested that pilots would be able to better handle upsets of this type (Air France Flight 447) if they had an indication of the wing's angle of attack.
I can't find it but on one of the documentaries about AF447 there was a company in Canada who were developing an onboard system which would screen all flight parameters and then start transmitting data if those parameters showed the aircraft going outside the normal envelope.
This would obviate the need for continuous transmission of data but would alert the relevant agencies that an aircraft was in difficulty together with GPS position.
This would obviate the need for continuous transmission of data but would alert the relevant agencies that an aircraft was in difficulty together with GPS position.
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Ian W.
I do agree. It would be interesting to understand why they flew in such weather in the first place. Why the dispatchers didn't reroute the flight plan, I mean ..they should be used to that kind of weather in that area.
I do agree. It would be interesting to understand why they flew in such weather in the first place. Why the dispatchers didn't reroute the flight plan, I mean ..they should be used to that kind of weather in that area.
Why the dispatchers didn't reroute the flight plan, I mean ..they should be used to that kind of weather in that area.
I'm no expert, I'm not a local, but I have flown across that part of the world more than once or twice going into/out of SIN. It's the tropics - it's pretty much a given that the sigmet chart will show a rather large area of Cbs/Turbulence/hail/dragons
somewhere across your route, in fact chances are the forecasters have covered their collective ***** and depicted it over most of Indonesia, Malaysia and quite possibly over your departure/destination airport....so how are you going to design a re-route at the planning stage?What's wrong with using the weather radar and making sure you carry the fuel to be flexible? The dispatcher (if your airline uses them) and/or the flight plan can't provide the solution to everything...I think the answer has to lie on the Flight Deck and the word I'm looking for is "Airmanship" (yeah, I'm that old..).
Last edited by wiggy; 31st Dec 2014 at 11:32.
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@Super re: pre-crash broadcasting. Attractive concept. I would refine it away from CVR audio (creepy, controversial) and even FDR (too much info) though. All you want is continuous (or very frequent) GPS data, to aid in (at least) locating FDR/CVR more quickly later. The biggest barrier to success that I see is "who's listening?" You'd really have to code it in to an existing comm or transponder channel rather than setting up some new worldwide listening system. And even then, would an AF scenario be in range of anything? Any existing "emergency (civilian) satellite bandwidth" that could be quickly and reliably grabbed? I have no idea really. 
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you don't just scrub the flight if the weather enroute is poor. you take extra fuel and plan for the worst and hope for the best.
this crew did take extra fuel I seem to recall?
this crew did take extra fuel I seem to recall?
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@highflyer -- We'll have to agree to disagree as to "stable" as a requirement I think. I'm positing a possible last-minute achievement of "shallow" (enough). (And again, lack of a comm attempt is not a certainty, and boxes will tell.)
Any discussion about the position of found debris and passangers ? I might have missed it...
avherald.com had a position for wreckage, and it seems to be about 50 Nm from last known position. (also saw what I took as a position note on the slide Picture in post #722)
Thats a quite long distance...
avherald.com had a position for wreckage, and it seems to be about 50 Nm from last known position. (also saw what I took as a position note on the slide Picture in post #722)
Thats a quite long distance...
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currents, wind, slight inaccuracies in the initial position report, very easy to be 50nm away after 3 days.
not to mention last position was when they were at 36000'. they could have gone in any direction and covered many NM while they were descending.
not to mention last position was when they were at 36000'. they could have gone in any direction and covered many NM while they were descending.
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Chipping into the why cannot we track airliners reliably in the 21st century argument. I have a back of the cigarette packet idea that is in no way validated so be gentle...
How about a switch which forces FDRs and CVRs to start bleeping? They could even begin audibly/digitally broadcasting positional data on some defined frequency.
How about a switch which forces FDRs and CVRs to start bleeping? They could even begin audibly/digitally broadcasting positional data on some defined frequency.