Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

[ZAGORFLY]

"expert"

Responding to Red Bull GMW: Write to that excellence in aviation Knowledge of Richard Quest..
and a question for the board:
do you think this unfortunate incident has anything to do with the crew's capacity/understanding to manage properly the weather radar?

[Curlew2012]

I guess Inmarsat are checking for handshakes.

I hope they are - will make useful calibration for MH370 estimates

[Flyright12]

Irrespective of the cause of this event, why was there no rescue/search aircraft/ship on site within a short space of time? If last contact was at 0724, that leaves at least 12 hours of daylight.

[safelife]

Inmarsat on an A320? Unusual.

[bunk exceeder]

Last winter, I wrote here wondering why we don't just put one of those little $100 Spidertracks or Spot GPS things in airliners that GA planes, sailors, etc. use as an interim measure in the wake of MH 370. With no further reference to that flight, it seems absurd that we don't know where hundreds of people are in a quarter billion dollar piece of metal at all times. Now here we are a year later wondering where a plane is, although they'll find this sad flight very quickly, but n the age of tracking your spouse's phone to determine if they are having an affair, the airline industry is still writing SOS on a beach somewhere. Come to think of it, if airline pilots are increasingly getting iPads, can Apple track Capt X's or FO Y's ipad?

[mseyfang]

@ZAGORFLY You're implying an inadvertent thunderstorm encounter with an ensuing inflight breakup, which is certainly within the realm of possibility. The crew's ability in operating the weather radar is something an investigation would likely look into if that indeed turns out to be a cause, but given the region in which they fly, I'd be disinclined to presume that they were less than competent in operating it.

[peekay4]

Last winter, I wrote here wondering why we don't just put one of those little $100 Spidertracks or Spot GPS things in airliners that GA planes, sailors, etc. use as an interim measure in the wake of MH 370. With no further reference to that flight, it seems absurd that we don't know where hundreds of people are in a quarter billion dollar piece of metal at all times. Now here we are a year later wondering where a plane is, although they'll find this sad flight very quickly, but n the age of tracking your spouse's phone to determine if they are having an affair, the airline industry is still writing SOS on a beach somewhere. Come to think of it, if airline pilots are increasingly getting iPads, can Apple track Cpat X's or FO Y's ipad?

Umm, this plane had ADS-B which was transmitting GPS data in real-time to ATC. Not to mention it was being actively tracked on primary radar, and the pilot was communicating with a controller less than a minute before contact was lost.

[andrasz]

why we don't just put one of those little $100 Spidertracks or Spot GPS things in airliners

We do. They are called Mode-S transponder...

In most cases last known position is a pretty good indication on where to start looking for the wreckage. LKP in this case is 150kms from land and a good 350km from Jakarta, closest main S/R base. With stormy weather a/c are of little use, and it will take a day for dedicated surface vessels to reach the site.

[bobdxb]

@lost in saigon

Qoute:
Climbing 38,000' doesn't necessarily mean they wanted to fly above the storm. I can think of lots of reasons for the climb:

1) turbulence at lower levels
2) more fuel efficient altitude
3) better visual reference to maneuver around the weather

Maybe it was a combination of all three.

with respect to your view I might add few things here:
1/ I have flown in this area for about 15 yrs and wx is known to be as severe as it could be for monsoon season
2/ Crew was probably briefed before the flight about it
3/ Sophisticated glass cockpit environment
4/ Captain probably flying most of his career in the same area


I can't justify your answers as best option to do mainly coz:
a/ FL380 is very close to Max FL for A320,
b/ what kind of fuel efficiency would you expect for a flight of below 2 hrs and would as PIC think of efficiency when you have severe wx conditions
c/ Visual reference in IMC???

[Airbubba]

The crew's ability in operating the weather radar is something an investigation would likely look into if that indeed turns out to be a cause, but given the region in which they fly, I'd be disinclined to presume that they were less than competent in operating it.

I fly that area fairly often. Due to the amount of moisture, droplet size or whatever, down low everything can look red and just be rain with little turbulence. And, up at altitude, huge buildups can sometimes paint very little. I often climb not to get above the cells but to get on top of the layers to visually assess the structure of the 'isolated embedded CB's' and their overhangs which can be extensive.

One peek is definitely worth a thousand radar scans on the way to Singapore in my experience. Then, safely on the ground, follow the greens...

[peekay4]

There is no way a plane can crash into the sea from FL360 in 'less than a minute', which seems to indicate a mid air break up.

I didn't write that the plane 'crashed' in a minute.

ATC was in contact with the flight and observed it on radar at 6:16.

At 6:17, radar contact was lost, and radio contact was also lost.

[mach92]

I also have flown in this area often. It does appear a solid line of storms probably topping 50,000 was in the path to Singapore. My guess the boys got into something and said "oh ****" they tried to climb to FL380 and turn 120 degrees. By that time it was too late! The plane broke a apart inside a monster storm.

[bille1319]

Only speculation.

To loose contact so fast suggests mid air break up with no time to declare an emergency. Hopefully data from ACARS continued transmitting engineering telegrams as in AF447 to give some intial clues until confirmed by recorders when recovered.

[highflyer40]

in the Asian mindset might it be that they are apt not to declare an emergency to "save face" if they think they have a chance of recovering the situation?

[rog747]

inmarsat

inmarsat has stated they have no equipment on this a/c

[flt001]

This flight was on primary radar when lost. Hence this is nothing like MH 370.

[Sop_Monkey]

Airbubba

"One peek is definitely worth a thousand radar scans on the way to Singapore in my experience."

Couldn't agree more! Mark one eye ball is still a good piece of kit.

[Downwind Lander]

Net logging of FDR and CVR data.

Apols if anyone has commented on this - MH370 taught the world that there is merit in flight data going to the FDR and CVR, but ALSO to an Internet based repository (- just in case). Can it be, almost a year on, that nothing has been done about this?

[lomapaseo]

To loose contact so fast suggests mid air break up with no time to declare an emergency ....

Other possibilities are that they ceased to use their working radio after the last communication.

Much information still to be released, like radar returns from altitude to sea floor

[ATC Watcher]

It would seem many here do not understand how an ATS system works . In general erratic behaviors / mode S SSR extreme returns are filtered out . So that could explain why the aircraft was maybe not " visible " but the data is in the system and can be retrieved . It just takes time .
Recordings to be recovered and evaluated also take time and need specialists . Their first action is generally not to call the press . So a bit of patience before going into establishing " facts " and deducting wild theories .