Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore
Join Date: Jan 1999
Posts: 275
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
island_airphoto
Are you sure the super-cell would not be black on a new radar too? Very early on with the monochrome digital radar we had back in the day, we learne the black blobs in the middle of the green returns were the worst areas to fly, not holes in the storms. The physics of extreme rain absorbing the radio waves has not changed.
Are you sure the super-cell would not be black on a new radar too? Very early on with the monochrome digital radar we had back in the day, we learne the black blobs in the middle of the green returns were the worst areas to fly, not holes in the storms. The physics of extreme rain absorbing the radio waves has not changed.
With a modern contoured radar what would you expect to see in the same scenario?
A green contour, followed by a yellow contour, followed by a red contour, maybe some purple - then, what? A hole? Blackness?
Well it might depend on your radar set, but my suggestion is you don't go near RED or PURPLE, and try your best to avoid YELLOW and GREEN too.
That'll keep you safe.
No guesswork or black art required.
PS Radar attenuation is part and parcel of the system. If a sufficiently strong beam is emitted it could pass through all weather giving no returns. Not much good for WX spotting.
The signal needs to be of just the right strength to be partially reflected thus showing the WX. The snag is the weaker beam also suffers attenuation.
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: UK
Posts: 24
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Stormscope
Island Airphoto:
Yes, I remember flying around with a Stormscope, they detect static electricity from moving air currents, not necessarily lightning, and so are pretty good at telling you where the rough air might be... especially at low level, but I would expect a Stormscope would be overworked in an area of multiple active CBs - just too many dots! They were mostly intended for light - non radar - aircraft. I never flew a heavy aircraft with one.
Yes, I remember flying around with a Stormscope, they detect static electricity from moving air currents, not necessarily lightning, and so are pretty good at telling you where the rough air might be... especially at low level, but I would expect a Stormscope would be overworked in an area of multiple active CBs - just too many dots! They were mostly intended for light - non radar - aircraft. I never flew a heavy aircraft with one.
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Found in Toronto
Posts: 615
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Tail section carried 3km is believable only if the tail was down current from the FDR. When we see current direction overlaid on a map of FDR and tail section locations it will be clear enough. Or more puzzling if the tail was cross stream or upstream.
I don't know anyone who does not with hindsight regret their choice of words from time to time, especially when in front of a crowd or on camera. I don't yet see anything contradictory in the 'explosive..air pressure' statement'. Sounds may be mis-interpreted, so must be considered separately. But a high volume, high velocity intrusion of seawater midpoint into a mostly horizontal fuselage could be expected to result in some cabin air overpressure. The paper bag analogy remains viable. Do recall also the fuselage frame pic of the skin neatly unzipped from the intact frame. The most likely cause of that is a sudden, very large, very uniform internal pressure. One must come up with an alternate cause for the unzipped skins to be able to disregard a fuselage overpressure. The video of the fuselage in situ which also shows virtually all cabin contents absent suggests a significant force having removed them.
I don't know anyone who does not with hindsight regret their choice of words from time to time, especially when in front of a crowd or on camera. I don't yet see anything contradictory in the 'explosive..air pressure' statement'. Sounds may be mis-interpreted, so must be considered separately. But a high volume, high velocity intrusion of seawater midpoint into a mostly horizontal fuselage could be expected to result in some cabin air overpressure. The paper bag analogy remains viable. Do recall also the fuselage frame pic of the skin neatly unzipped from the intact frame. The most likely cause of that is a sudden, very large, very uniform internal pressure. One must come up with an alternate cause for the unzipped skins to be able to disregard a fuselage overpressure. The video of the fuselage in situ which also shows virtually all cabin contents absent suggests a significant force having removed them.
Join Date: Jul 2013
Location: Maryland USA
Posts: 133
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Algol - we used to try and get a ground return on the far side of the storm to see if it was a hole or heavy rain and then tilt up to get an idea how hight the tops were. It was far from foolproof with the small antennas on a piston twin, sometimes you just had to keep away from all of it or heavy rain where you were would blind you to what was coming. I suspect that is still true - heavy enough precip where you are right now won't let you see very well if even worse is in front of you.
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Found in Toronto
Posts: 615
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Has this been posted before? Video that shows a rear door on the tail: BBC News - Navy releases new underwater footage of AirAsia plane
Last edited by Lost in Saigon; 12th Jan 2015 at 17:14.
Lessons from AF447
I don't yet see anything contradictory in the 'explosive..air pressure' statement'. Sounds may be mis-interpreted, so must be considered separately. But a high volume, high velocity intrusion of seawater midpoint into a mostly horizontal fuselage could be expected to result in some cabin air overpressure. The paper bag analogy remains viable. Do recall also the fuselage frame pic of the skin neatly unzipped from the intact frame. The most likely cause of that is a sudden, very large, very uniform internal pressure. One must come up with an alternate cause for the unzipped skins to be able to disregard a fuselage overpressure.
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: Clinton WA
Age: 75
Posts: 74
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Impact comparison to AF447
Garage Years: Surely the impact that occurred with AF447 would be a good model for an intact aircraft hitting the ocean at relative high vertical speed?
The comparative issues of 8501 forward and vertical impact speeds are very much current conjecture. Despite the extreme depth of 447 wreckage, drift during descent still resulted in a debris field that was not gigantic. The degree of fragmentation of AF447 both by map and underwater photos compared to what little we know of 8501 debris at this early stage of recovery, and based on much conjecture, suggests relatively similar impacts might result in much different debris characteristics. The large area of 8501 tail section skin is about our only clue at present that suggests impact differences, but its large area is persuasive toward some causes.
AF447: Map of the debris field - Flight International
The comparative issues of 8501 forward and vertical impact speeds are very much current conjecture. Despite the extreme depth of 447 wreckage, drift during descent still resulted in a debris field that was not gigantic. The degree of fragmentation of AF447 both by map and underwater photos compared to what little we know of 8501 debris at this early stage of recovery, and based on much conjecture, suggests relatively similar impacts might result in much different debris characteristics. The large area of 8501 tail section skin is about our only clue at present that suggests impact differences, but its large area is persuasive toward some causes.
AF447: Map of the debris field - Flight International
Join Date: Jan 2015
Location: US
Posts: 64
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
I am hoping that the black box manufacture and the Australian ATSB are helping the Indonesia Govt retrieve the data from the boxes & right now they are just behind the scene on the deck of the ship during the news photo ops.
Mr S...that’s what I am worried about too...Airbus will want to place the blame solely on the pilots and not on any potential recalls/redesign/liability claims/potential loss of orders.
Googled “australia ATSB Airasia 8501” and this came up:
"The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has agreed to an Indonesian request to provide a flight recorder specialist when needed."
Mr S...that’s what I am worried about too...Airbus will want to place the blame solely on the pilots and not on any potential recalls/redesign/liability claims/potential loss of orders.
Googled “australia ATSB Airasia 8501” and this came up:
"The Australian Transport Safety Bureau (ATSB) has agreed to an Indonesian request to provide a flight recorder specialist when needed."
Last edited by BG47; 12th Jan 2015 at 21:20.
Join Date: Mar 2014
Location: froggylandia
Age: 74
Posts: 28
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
The french are there alright
Airbus and the BEA are both heavily represented. Photos of their people near the wreckage are evident in the press. Let's hope someone will be looking very closely over their shoulders to make sure the full and complete data from both from the FDR the CVR (when it is recovered) is made known and public. Whatever the data/conversations tell us about pitot tubes, FBW, direct vs alternate laws, crew training, P2F, decision making, cockpit resource management, etc, etc.
Join Date: Feb 2000
Location: Pacific
Posts: 731
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Algol: I did not ask for the return to the older radars, what would be the point? You demonstrate that modern pilots would not be able to use it anyway.
If I am coming up on a large area of activity and need to find the best way through (and I don't have the luxury of a super-airliner like you obviously fly so cannot go over it) I could, using the old equipment, find the route I wanted. Since you don't know what I am talking about there is no point my explaining it to you as to how to go about this, but believe me it was possible.
Modern radar makes all those decisions for me and for a modern pilot that is fine and dandy. Quite often though, the modern radar is wrong.
If I am coming up on a large area of activity and need to find the best way through (and I don't have the luxury of a super-airliner like you obviously fly so cannot go over it) I could, using the old equipment, find the route I wanted. Since you don't know what I am talking about there is no point my explaining it to you as to how to go about this, but believe me it was possible.
Modern radar makes all those decisions for me and for a modern pilot that is fine and dandy. Quite often though, the modern radar is wrong.
Join Date: Jun 2008
Location: Cambridge UK
Posts: 192
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
PS Radar attenuation is part and parcel of the system. If a sufficiently strong beam is emitted it could pass through all weather giving no returns. Not much good for WX spotting.
The signal needs to be of just the right strength to be partially reflected thus showing the WX. The snag is the weaker beam also suffers attenuation.
The signal needs to be of just the right strength to be partially reflected thus showing the WX. The snag is the weaker beam also suffers attenuation.
Join Date: Oct 2011
Location: Lower Skunk Cabbageland, WA
Age: 74
Posts: 354
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Dr. Phillipa wrote:
Would you care to spell that out in so many words, Dr.?
I am sure that the Seattle branch of the agency have them permanently in their sights, so do not worry.
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: California
Age: 54
Posts: 203
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
McCloaked
At 6kt that distance represents about 20 minutes - if one of two pieces sinks straight away after surface impact and disruption, and the other floats for 20 minutes before sinking carried by a current flowing at that speed, that does not seem particularly unrealistic?
@Livesinafield: "I think 3km is a lot I'm sure a 6kt current can't move 20kilos of metal that's sat in the sand"
Join Date: Jun 2009
Location: MURDO
Posts: 35
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Do any airliners fit stormscopes or equivalent technology? One of their selling points was that lightning was found in turbulent air, heavy rain or not. I liked the one I had way back when. Not as accurate as radar, but it worked.
Join Date: May 2006
Location: London
Age: 69
Posts: 237
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
There seems to have quite some time taken to find the wreckage, have their been any statements on whether the sonar transponders worked properly, and if they do why the search was so long ?
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: United States
Posts: 105
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
Several other explanations have already been offered:
1. It was not know where the airplane went down
2. The strong currents spread out the wreckage
3. Some of the wreckage was buried in silt
4. There is a lot of other junk on the sea floor, for example wreckage from the battle of the Java Sea in World War II and other wrecks happening on these heavily traveled sea lanes.
1. It was not know where the airplane went down
2. The strong currents spread out the wreckage
3. Some of the wreckage was buried in silt
4. There is a lot of other junk on the sea floor, for example wreckage from the battle of the Java Sea in World War II and other wrecks happening on these heavily traveled sea lanes.
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: Schiphol
Posts: 475
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
On Phil Gollin ... time to locate the recorders
There seems to have quite some time taken to find the wreckage, have their been any statements on whether the sonar transponders worked properly, and if they do why the search was so long ?
If they were on the edge then you should have to know the effective range of the listening devices. Ranges mentioned during recent investigations are between 500-2000 meters.
During the MH370 search I read a comment which stated reduced effectiveness in shallow water. Next to the fact that in general in shallow areas there is more traffic and vessel noise. This is quite a busy area. It suprised me that only now they have closed a sector for traffic for better listening. A few days ago a big vessel was sailing right through the area (if you may believe that tracking site). So to better answer your question, we need someone who can say something about effective range in shallow water. The floor here was sand according to an official statement. Depth at the location was 30-32 meters.
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: It used to be an island...
Posts: 244
Likes: 0
Received 0 Likes
on
0 Posts
This BBC article on the black box recovery contains a video segment in the middle showing the (presumably) AAIB CVR/FDR analysis room and a short interview with an accident investigator about recorder analysis.