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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 7th Jan 2015, 13:17
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Originally Posted by lapp
Really! Was it a kind of barstool conversation perhaps. Because, you know "listening devices" need to be powered on to listen to "encrypted signals".
Well no it wasn't. It was a phone call with my cousin who has spent the last 25+ years on/off ships deploying and repairing electronic equipment on certain vessels that "have certain capabilities to do very specific jobs" as he puts it.

His ship is in SEA now and is on standby to help with this search.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 14:06
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AirAsia Airlines press release Jan7, 2015

AirAsia Indonesia Flight QZ8501 UPDATE (as of 7th January 2015 8:00 PM (GMT+7)
SURABAYA, 7 JANUARY 2015 – The National Search and Rescue Agency (BASARNAS) Republic of Indonesia today confirmed that the SAR team retrieved a visual confirmation of the tail part of QZ 8501’s aircraft. The visual confirmation was made following underwater documentation of the aircraft’s tail and small wreckage, which showed the plane’s registration number (PK-AXC), captured by the SAR team’s sea divers.

The tail part was found in the additional focus search area (approx. 30 kms from the primary focus area). The SAR operation is still underway as the weather is reported to be clear with good underwater visibility for the divers to continue observation.

Sunu Widyatmoko, Chief Executive Officer AirAsia Indonesia commented, “We would like to extend our appreciation to all authorities and personnel that has been involved in the SAR operation. Today is the eleventh day and the latest finding is indeed an breakthrough for all of us who have been anxiously waiting for further development on the SAR operation.” Following the latest finding, BASARNAS confirmed that the later SAR operation will be focused in this area to see if there are any trapped remains that must be recovered as well as the continued search for the black box.

Earlier today, Indonesian Navy Commander of the KRI Bung Tomo-357, Lieutenant Colonel Ashari Alamsyah officially handed over the debris and passengers belongings of QZ 8501’s flight that were found in the search area to the Deputy Commander of Indonesian Naval Aviation Unit, Colonel Yuwono at SAR Operation center in Juanda International Airport. As for the next phase, debris will be transferred to Indonesia’s National Transportation Safety Committee (KNKT) for further investigation.

This morning, BASARNAS also confirmed to have recovered one more remain from the search area. The remain is still in Pangkalan Bun, waiting to be transported to Surabaya for further identification process. Meanwhile, the Disaster Victim Identification Police Department Republic of Indonesia (DVI POLRI) today announced that they have identified 8 more remains of QZ 8501 passengers as: Ratri Sri Andriani (female),Rudy Soetjipto (male), Jou Christine Yuanita (female), Soetikno Sia (male), Ruth Natalia Made Puspita Sari (female), Nico Giovani (male), Indahju Liangsih (female), Stephanie Yulianto (female). AirAsia Indonesia officially handed over the remains to the respective families at Bhayangkara Hospital, Surabaya this afternoon.

To date, BASARNAS confirmed to have recovered a total of 40 remains of which 24 remains have been identified by DVI POLRI and 16 remains are still being identified.

AirAsia would like to take this opportunity to urge the public seeking progress on the search and evacuation and identification process of QZ 8501 passengers to refer solely to official information from BASARNAS and DVI POLRI.

Our thoughts and prayers remain with the families and friends of our passengers and colleagues on board QZ 8501.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 14:33
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Ian W

Secondary radar is not normally attenuated by rain but primary radar is always attenuated by rain.
Modern phased array radars such as the types used by the Indonesian military are not significantly affected by weather. But you are right I should have said: "I don't believe it possible for even heavy rain to attenuate the return from either passive or primary radar to a significant degree."

Ministry of Defense Will Add Air Force Radar
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 14:40
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The photo of inside tells the most: it is taken inside aft fuselage looking from front towards the tail end and considering that light comes from the top of photo, I believe camera was held reasonably level. Therefore, this part of tail section probably rests leaning on vertical stabiliser with its right side on the bottom (left side exposed - photographed) Right half of horizontal stabiliser pushed into the mud or is (partially) broken away-fuselage rests half inverted to the right side-approx. 130 deg. from normal. Interior shows horizontal stabiliser (THS) and parts of THS mechanism, that moves-trims horizontal stabiliser via jackscrew. It appears it is in extreme position ANU, (leading edge to the bottom-aircraft nose up) but cannot say for sure as mechanism looks broken and fuselage skin severely distorted. Am surprised that CVR / DFDR were not found, as they are installed very close to position, from where the photo was taken. I assume that part of the fuselage is not in the same piece with the structure photographed.
There is a major difference in this wreckage and that from AF447 and the Perpignan A-320 accidents. The vertical stabilizer was not thrown forward by the impact! This implies that forward speed is much less than those two accidents. Low forward speed is a characteristic of spin in accidents. Rotation is another characteristic of spin in accidents-not enough information yet to make a determination on that point.

If the horizontal stabiliser is indeed run into the full nose up trim range I think I will have some bad things to say about the flight control laws.

We will find out soon.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 14:57
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QZ8501

If the horizontal stabiliser is indeed run into the full nose up trim range I think I will have some bad things to say about the flight control laws.
I think a large number of folk will share this view.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 15:26
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"If the horizontal stabiliser is indeed run into the full nose up trim range I think I will have some bad things to say about the flight control laws."

So the 7700 Airbus fbw planes must be falling like coconuts.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 15:55
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Originally Posted by AirScotia

Does Indonesia have the technical resources to deal with the FDR/ CVR? I assumed they'd send them to Australia.
I'm sure the NTSC has invested in the technical resources required to analyse the black boxes in Indonesia considering the number of accidents the country has had in recent time.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 16:08
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Debris photos

Thanks hoistop. Ref
http://www.pprune.org/rumours-news/5...ml#post8814500
I can't dispute your credentials but do admit confusion over dissimilarity between debris pic and purported A320 THS horiz jackscrew at:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/8353822@N02/2108746312/
I can find no others.
Orientation of latter pic apparently is looking upward with light entering via window at lower right.
I'm also uncertain of debris orientation vis your explanation of 130 deg counter clockwise from normal meaning “up” is on left side of pic.

Registration numbers of “EAX” or “FAX” on metal skin (rivets, adjacent panels parted at end), dark characters on white background located on fuselage sides fwd of rear pax door and below windows.
Indonesia AirAsia Airbus A320-200 » Juergen's paint hangar

All three pics at:
AirAsia Flight QZ8501 plane tail confirmed found
suggest tail is separated from main fuselage through or aft of rear pax door, ie at rear pressurization bulkhead which is close to the “Ai” vertical fin script in pic 3.

The apparent rapid descent of QZ8501 raises the question of pressurization effects at impact. I understand there are overpressurization vents; question is their flow capacity and what if any overpressure would remain after a 4 minute descent from FL29, and what additional effects that would have on how the aft airframe might come apart at impact.

I also note BG47's mention a couple posts down that the tail is 30km from what is still the primary search area...and recall that transponder and other data disappeared closer in time to the last pilot transmission than the probable time it would take the AC to descend from FL29, which unfortunately does not decrease the probability of inflight airframe failure.

Other comments regarding fwd component separation of the Vfin a la AF447 of course depend on relative fwd speeds, 447 being faster than AA debris so far suggests. Both may have been fully stalled but AA more horizontal, if intact.

Hoping for observations from others familiar with A320 stabilizer/bulkhead structure.

Last edited by Leightman 957; 7th Jan 2015 at 16:10. Reason: rem margin info
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 16:15
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Ok, I'll stick my neck out.
Wing failure in extreme turbulence caused the large paint removal scrapes just before it took the tail section off.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 16:23
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The apparent rapid descent of QZ8501 raises the question of pressurization effects at impact. I understand there are overpressurization vents; question is their flow capacity and what if any overpressure would remain after a 4 minute descent from FL29, and what additional effects that would have on how the aft airframe might come apart at impact.
No matter how fast you descend, there will never be positive pressure at impact, if anything, you would run into negative pressure relief issues.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 16:39
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Here is an imagine that shows how screw jack assembly looks like:
https://www.flickr.com/photos/8353822@N02/2147258443/
For NU the nut goes to the right side of picture
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 17:08
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Originally Posted by Leightman 957
Registration numbers of “EAX” or “FAX” on metal skin (rivets, adjacent panels parted at end), dark characters on white background located on fuselage sides fwd of rear pax door and below windows.
Not "EAX" or "FAX", the character preceding the "A" is a hyphen: (PK)-AX(C).
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 17:15
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LapSap

Good try but the letters are very small in comparison to the wing, so the damage is not consistent with a hit from a very large object. Maybe a passing aileron might have made a dent, but that's as far as I would speculate. SPECULATE, please, I am in no position to make definitive statements here...

A picture of the airplane in question, to put things in perspective. Sorry, this was the largest image I found that wouldn't distort the forum layout.

And yes, the registration number is PK-AXC.

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Old 7th Jan 2015, 17:45
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If the screw jack is wound all the way to the slow end of its travel, it reminds me of an accident to a light aircraft with a female pilot.
She had engaged the auto-pilot in altitude hold just before take-off. The AP had wound the trim fully UP before she accelerated for take-off, and the AAIB concluded that she would have been incapable of pushing on the stick with sufficient force to avert the disaster that occurred.
They concluded that the force required would have been over 50 pounds, meaning that she would not have been able to take one hand off the column to re-trim the aircraft, and so avoid the stall.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 17:54
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Fuselage "scrape", stab bulkhead, FDR

Thanks for the clarifications on registration characters.

I don't seen any clear indication that a dent or scrape occurred. There are no visible longitudinal waves in the metal as in the case of a scrape over length, and a dent requires a striking object which adds another level of conjecture. If anything the upper (in the pic) 'scrape' ridge appears outward from the interior, and the lower appears inward ie an accordion combination. Loss of paint can also be overextension in one direction or sequential bending in opposite directions (because the panel as photographed is close to original curved/planar shape. The axis of the paint loss could also be consistent with a flat landing of high vertical velocity.

Correction: FDR located aft of the pressurization bulkhead and though close in distance to the diver/photographer, not visible by diver. Absence of pings is odd unless no detectors had not yet been in place.. Mud doesn't appear to be a problem.

Last edited by Leightman 957; 7th Jan 2015 at 19:13. Reason: Revised FDR location
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 18:05
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How tall are the registration characters in real life? They look to be roughly the same height/width as the pax windows, so possibly 60cm x 40cm?
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 18:42
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direction of paint scrapes

As it appear on the picture, mainly from the smaller paint scrape and the next section of skin panels, they were made from the A toward the X. That assumption would indicate that we are seeing the left side of the tail section.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 19:13
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Canadian Airline First to Use Black Box Data Streaming

Just wanted to put this out there as the topic of real time data streaming for SAR purposes as well as aircraft operation management. Is this the thing all airlines should be legislated to implement in light of the recent disappearances? Costs are also identified.

First Air the only airline in the world with black box data streaming - North - CBC News
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 19:14
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Not as crazy as you think.

Really! Was it a kind of barstool conversation perhaps. Because, you know "listening devices" need to be powered on to listen to "encrypted signals".
A low-power standby mode, in which the only thing powered is a simple receiver without a lot of smarts, whose only job is to listen for a specific signal and then, when it hears it, turn on the rest of the circuitry (which includes fancy signal processing, data analysis and storage, reporting, two-way comms, etc.) is not at all a crazy design pattern; it's used all over the place.
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Old 7th Jan 2015, 19:19
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Leightman

Yes, an "accordion-effect" seems more plausible than any large object hitting this part of the plane. I'm not sure but if you find a highres version of this picture



and look closely at the smudgy dot in the bottom right in the photo, it looks like something bumped into the fuselage - something like a small rock or maybe hail?

ETA: Here is a-- link to a highres picture of the above. http://uk.businessinsider.com/crews-...01-2015-1?r=US

Just to reiterate what others have said, but with what could be some hint of proof: This picture shows the left side of the plane.



Notice the bending of the letters. This is where the tail meets the fuselage and on the right side the bend should be between letters s-i-a instead of A-i-r .

Last edited by MrSnuggles; 7th Jan 2015 at 19:26. Reason: adding link
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