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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

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Air Asia Indonesia Lost Contact from Surabaya to Singapore

Old 29th Dec 2014, 11:51
  #361 (permalink)  
 
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Correct one?

PK-AXC - Indonesia AirAsia - Aircraft info and flight history - Flightradar24
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 11:56
  #362 (permalink)  
 
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Joe public must be thinking flying is getting to be a risky business. you can bet that irrational or not, he IS comparing the mobile phone versus aircraft and is not impressed to learn that apparently the desired safety level comes at too high a cost. might not market forces drive a change before long?
Yep. And reinsurers must be thinking that insuring planes is becoming risky. Allianz were the lead reinsurer for MH370 as well as this plane (and also MH17). If this one is not found, they may start to insist on real time tracking. If airlines chose not to implement this, then insurers may chose not to offer cover.

If tracking is possible, then insurers will may not continue to simply accept claims for planes that disappear without trace.
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:06
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Yep. And reinsurers must be thinking that insuring planes is becoming risky. Allianz were the lead reinsurer for MH370 as well as this plane (and also MH17). If this one is not found, they may start to insist on real time tracking.
Seriously ?

Insurers work on statistics my friend.

As I've already highlighted on this thread .... how many flights occur every year ? How many flights have occurred over the last 10 years ? 20 years ?

How many of these millions of flights have been affected by a problem that would be solved by some expensive solution ??

A quick Google suggests the three major passenger airline alliances did a combined total estimated 50,000 flights per day in 2014, that's 18,250,000 fights in 2014 !

So the POTENTIALLY "untraceable" loss of 2 or 3 aircraft, whilst obviously sad, is a mere needle in a haystack at 0.00001643835616438356%. And that's just the number for the "alliances", if you consider the other non-alliance airlines, that percentage becomes even smaller !

Obviously 2014 was a "bad" year,some years you may have no "untraceable" losses at all.

That's why you need to evaluate the risk vs reward in business, and quite frankly the risk just is not sufficient to start running around like headless chickens spending money deploying technology across entire fleets !

I also suggest you go read post #340 from PT6Driver which further reinforces the pointlessness of such tracking solutions.

The only thing the reinsurers would do is laugh your idea out of the room ! The insurers are in the business of dealing with risks !

Aviation remains one of the safest and least risky modes of transport on earth, and the insurers/reinsurers know that !

Last edited by mixture; 29th Dec 2014 at 12:25.
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:12
  #364 (permalink)  
 
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So do we actually know what its final altitude was? Reports it was around FL360 but they didn't even have permission to climb to FL340 - as that was giving when they didn't respond.......
Quite a bit of info and related links on the wikipedia page for this flight

Indonesia AirAsia Flight 8501 - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Last edited by mmurray; 29th Dec 2014 at 12:13. Reason: [Added in quote I was replying to]
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:21
  #365 (permalink)  
 
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The only thing the reinsurers would do is laugh your idea out of the room !
Time will tell I guess.

You can bet that Allianz are not laughing right now.

Communication technology continues to evolve rapidly. What seems expensive or not practical or not justified on a cost:benefit analysis today may (probably will) soon become routine.

Even today there are handheld units that cost a few hundred $ (e.g. Spider tracks) that determine GPS location every minute and transmit it via Iridium at a few cents a message.
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:23
  #366 (permalink)  
 
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With 100% Hindsight, should they have routed via Jakata?


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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:30
  #367 (permalink)  
 
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Without any basis of fact I, like everyone else, is "assuming" that this is a weather related incident. Specifically, a possible inadvertent cell penetration.

So here's my pet peeve regarding the serviceability of weather radar.

Most MEL's allows for the weather radar to be unserviceable for 10 days (Category C) albeit with certain exceptions. These exceptions are open to interpretation.

And as we know, whenever there are commercial pressures, interpretation of any exceptions pertaining to safety never ends well for the crews.

The MEL for Radar needs to be changed to Category A. And the exceptions tightened up to minimize a "relaxed" interpretation for commercial reasons.

The thing that really angers me is that in contrast, the CVR, which does absolutely nothing for the immediate safety of the aircraft in which it's installed is allowed to be unserviceable for only 3 days.
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:31
  #368 (permalink)  
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With 100% Hindsight, should they have routed via Jakata?
EK 409 was a few miles ahead, a bit further left of track, but that was a 777.
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:32
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Mixture:
Aviation remains one of the safest and least risky modes of transport on earth, and the insurers/reinsurers know that !
This is not disputed.
All it will take is a Class Action by relatives of victims under US jurisdiction for distress. It is a matter of time, and the industry must and will change its practices. The industry is living in the comfort zone of the (Montreal) past.
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:35
  #370 (permalink)  
 
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You can bet that Allianz are not laughing right now.
Why do you think Allianz is referred to as "lead insurer" ?

That's because aviation insurance involves spreading the risk across a consortium of different insurance companies, that's what Lloyd's does, it provides a market for the insurers to do deals between themselves and package out risk obligations.

Whilst Allianz refuse to comment, when the numbers do emerge you'll probably find their own direct exposure to the two MH instances and this event is only a fraction of the total sums insured !

Lloyd's has been around for 300 years. So whilst insurers are in the business of taking on risk, they're not stupid, they know how to minimise their own risk too !
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:40
  #371 (permalink)  
 
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Again, I am not a pilot, I am an EE by training.

@Mahatma Kote
though why aren't technologies like doppler airspeed used instead of pitot?

Normal radar doppler only reflects off airborne particles like dust, water and ice. It passes right through air, so it cannot directly measure airspeed. If it gets reflected by air, then it would not be able to measure anything at all, as it will get absorbed the instant it leaves the instrument before reaching the air you want to measure. The same reason why those probes protrude out of the fuselage of the aircraft.

I did a google search and found Calibrating airborne measurements of airspeed, pressure and temperature using a Doppler [email protected] air-motion sensor | OpenSky - Providing free and open access to the scholarship of UCAR, NCAR, and the UCP which uses [email protected] to measure airspeed, but considering that the paper was only written this year, it is not likely to reach the aircraft for at least a couple of decades, even if it gets there.
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:41
  #372 (permalink)  
 
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@training wheels

don't understand what makes diff if B777 or A320?


speaking of my experience in similar situation years back from sin to jkt, you need to act quickly when you hit CB and have very little margin of speed change, not climb but descent (speed tape with vls and max almost touching each other is not a comfortable area to fly in such wx)

Last edited by bobdxb; 29th Dec 2014 at 12:47. Reason: add more info
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:44
  #373 (permalink)  
 
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Obie
You are obviously not a pilot or one of the new computer breed that crashed the air France. Fmgc limits are not for flying through storms they are advisory for good conditions. Remember the airbus is an aeroplane and should be flown as such. WE CAN NEVER BEAT THE LAW OF PHYSICS.
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:50
  #374 (permalink)  
 
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Most MEL's allows for the weather radar to be unserviceable for 10 days
Huh? I don't care, don't know, and don't even want to know what the MEL says about radar: After 20K+ long haul hours, I still DO NOT depart with inoperative radar.
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 12:57
  #375 (permalink)  
 
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Well said GlueBall
Airmanship over manuals, a dirty phrase in the modern world but it works.
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 13:00
  #376 (permalink)  
 
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I hope ppl like news reporters will stop comparing flying hrs of a pilot...


eg pilot working and limited to European airspace will never encounter same wx like someone who flies in asia or africa where you have limited resources of info and support
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 13:00
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MEL's also have stipulations about convective weather not being present as well..
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 13:03
  #378 (permalink)  
 
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Details on Copilot's background

French Press confirms he got his ATPL at the age of 42.
Le copilote français de l'avion disparu débutait sa carrière
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 13:04
  #379 (permalink)  
 
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Should not the possibility of the plane crashing in the Belitung forests be considered?
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Old 29th Dec 2014, 13:09
  #380 (permalink)  
 
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A quick Google suggests the three major passenger airline alliances did a combined total estimated 50,000 flights per day in 2014, that's 18,250,000 fights in 2014 !

So the POTENTIALLY "untraceable" loss of 2 or 3 aircraft, whilst obviously sad, is a mere needle in a haystack at 0.00001643835616438356%. And that's just the number for the "alliances", if you consider the other non-alliance airlines, that percentage becomes even smaller !
It does not matter in this case how many flights a given plane makes. What matters to insurance is that X airframes out of Y insured are gone. The number of actual planes is a percentage of flights a day, as most are in the air daily and several times. According to Boeing ther were 20000 commercial aircraft in the world in 2012. 3 of those are 0.015%. Perhaps that seems small, but it sure has a lot fewer zeroes past the decimal point.
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