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MH17 down near Donetsk

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MH17 down near Donetsk

Old 23rd Jul 2014, 17:53
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One opposing rebel leader said the other groups had the BUK-1m at their disposal from Russia. Exclusive: Ukraine rebel commander acknowledges fighters had BUK missile | Reuters
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 18:31
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Huge respect to the Dutch people and nation for the dignity of the reception of the bodies in Holland
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 19:57
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A lot of accusations here there is.

I honestly don't care much about who shot the airliner down, if it was shot down that is (I'd sit tight and wait for the report).

What I do care about is giving the accident investigation team a chance to find out what happened, and recommendations about how to avoid it from happening again.

It's obviously a warzone, such a beautifull landscape and villages turned into a warzone in the 21. century is beyond me.

If it was shot down, it's the kind of mistakes, sad mistakes, that happen in a war/conflict, and there's no point in hiding for the party to blame, a part of me would actually prefer if the people who shot it down would openly say they did it and say "sorry".
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 20:14
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Does that mean that anti-radar counter measures should be a higher priority than anti-IR measures?
The effectiveness of chaff has been declining as progress in electronics has increased. Essentially the newer radar transmitters and receivers are better able to handle the chaff and the missile guidance systems have sufficient processing power to separate the chaff from the aircraft. The radar cross-sections of commercial aircraft, carbon fiber usage not withstanding, is huge for missile systems designed to cope with far smaller, high performance military aircraft with radar warning receivers, automatic threat identification and classification systems, flares, chaff, electronic countermeasures, electronic counter-countermeasures, towed decoys, etc.

More complex anti-radar measures would put the airline industry and commercial aircraft suppliers in an arms race against the combined power of the world's weapons designers. I submit that is an impossible task for technical, political, and economic reasons.

Modern airforces avoid known radar guided missile engagement zones or actively target the systems. Since no airline I know of is in the business of killing SAM sites, steering well clear is the only real option, imperfect is that will always be.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 20:24
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One opposing rebel leader said the other groups had the BUK-1m at their disposal from Russia. Exclusive: Ukraine rebel commander acknowledges fighters had BUK missile | Reuters
Already denied for what it is worth - Via google translate

ria.ru/world/20140723/1017273394.html

Donetsk, July 23 - RIA Novosti. battalion commander "East" Alexander Khodakovsky denies that he spoke in an interview with Reuters on the alleged use of militias in eastern Ukraine system "Buk", said RIA Novosti on Wednesday a source close to the commander.

"I did not say anything like" Reuters "and I have a recording of a conversation" - quoted the spokesman Khodakovskogo words.
Original Text:
ДОНЕЦК, 23 июл — РИА Новости. Командир батальона "Восток" Александр Ходаковский отрицает, что говорил в интервью агентству Рейтер о якобы применении ополченцами на востоке Украины системы "Бук", заявил в среду РИА Новости источник в окружении командира.

"Я не говорил ничего подобного "Рейтеру", и у меня есть запись разговора", — процитировал собеседник агентства слова Ходаковского.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 20:31
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MH17 victims being transported, person by person, from the airport to a forensic inst

MH17 victims being transported, person by person, from the airport to a forensic institute. Amazing display of respect.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CImFlhuSn40
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 20:42
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Call me unadventurous but I'd rather divert around SAM equipped war zones than tool up with chaff, flares and all the wizardry required to flag up quite when to lob them overboard with the least unlikelihood of success.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 20:51
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if you are flying over/to african/mideast countries sometimes you don't have that luxury to divert
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 20:51
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IanW,
I sincerely doubt the vertical restriction in the airspace thru the Ukraine area where MH17 met its fate had any calculations based on engine out driftdown performance for T7's..... Their are/were numerous aircraft types flying overhead with greatly differing driftdown performance, etc.

The decision to keep the airspace open was an economic one, keep the overflight fees flowing to Kiev from use of the Ukranian airspace by air traffic. Those fees add up to huge amounts over the course of a year. Users are particularly eager to pay those fees, rather the more enormous operating costs involved in routes avoiding the Ukraine........ It all looked good on paper......
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 20:56
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How close are folk operating to the east of the zone? Coming down last night over Kiev and Odessa the radio was almost silent.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 22:34
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Originally Posted by OleOle
The NYT says the perforated panels from the cockpit region were found here. It's like 9km/5nm west of the main debris field.
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...down.html?_r=0
Does this large separation (between the cockpit debris and the main debris field) suggest that the nose/cockpit was immediately severed from the rest of the airframe by the warhead detonation ?
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 22:38
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Last Seconds

Based on the photos and analyses on the metabunk site, I think that we can reasonably assess the sequence of the plane's last seconds.


The large number of missile fragments penetrating the aircraft's frame would have caused instantaneous depressurization. The pilots would have been mortally wounded by the fragments penetrating the cockpit. Likewise, many passengers. All that will be established in post mortem examinations.


The plane's systems would have been disabled and it would have been uncontrollable. It disintegrated in the air.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 23:02
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Article from French magazine Paris Match.

Trajectory analysis (map included) seems to show the front end of the plane (cockpit + business) was indeed detached at missile impact and falled down on ~ original trajectory, while the bigger middle/rear part (eco + wings + tails) veered left.

Exclusif-Notre enquête sur les lieux du crash. Comment le MH17 a été abattu - Paris Match

It's in French but I guess with images provided and Google Translate anyone can manage.

(click on picture for larger version)

Last edited by AlphaZuluRomeo; 24th Jul 2014 at 19:38. Reason: image too big for forum, providing a smaller one
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 23:02
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https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...ream/lightbox/

A close up picture of the Capt side cockpit frame rail. The main blast had to have been very near, you can see melted burn marks. A hit anywhere else and it might have had a chance. Very unfortunate.

One thing is certain , we have never seen photographic documentation of a major crash scene like this.

Last edited by cappt; 23rd Jul 2014 at 23:13.
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Old 23rd Jul 2014, 23:37
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I don't know if this is a repost...

But I must say it's very good work from the Malaysian government especially their Prime Minister...

KUALA LUMPUR (Reuters) - As Western leaders increasingly pointed the finger of blame at pro-Russian separatists, and Moscow itself, over the shooting down of a Malaysia Airlines plane in eastern Ukraine, the government in Kuala Lumpur said little.

The reasons for that reticence - which had drawn criticism at home - became clear on Tuesday, when Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak announced shortly after midnight that his government had negotiated the release of the remains of nearly 300 victims of Flight MH17 from separatist-held territory.

Najib, working through intermediaries to reach rebel leader Alexander Borodai, was a key figure in brokering the deal, according to two sources in Malaysia with direct knowledge of the negotiations.

The talks were kept under tight wraps, with Najib initiating the conversation and bringing only a handful of his closest confidants into the discussions.

"It was the Prime Minister’s project," one of the sources said.

"He was the main player and he kept this within a very, very, very tight circle. Even some of his closest advisers were not part of this circle, and were surprised by this deal."

The agreement was that Malaysia would receive the aircraft's "black box" voice and flight data recorders, which were in rebel hands after being recovered from the crash site near the Russian border.

The bodies would be moved from separatist-controlled territory so that international investigators could safely conduct DNA tests and later return the remains to families.

Intermediaries, whom the sources declined to identify, facilitated at least one telephone discussion between Najib and Borodai, via a translator, the sources said.

Malaysia wanted three things from the separatists: return the bodies, hand over the black boxes and assure safe access for investigators to the crash site.

Borodai’s people wanted a signed document acknowledging that the black boxes were not tampered with, the second source said.

They also insisted on handing over the black boxes to the Malaysians because they did not want the devices in the hands of the Ukrainian government. The voice and data recorders will be crucial for investigators to piece together exactly what brought down the plane as it flew over eastern Ukraine on Thursday en route from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur.

As negotiations advanced, Transport Minister Liow Tiong Lai, who had been appointed to the job only a few weeks earlier, and other representatives of the airline and government flew to Kiev over the weekend.

A broad agreement took shape on Monday, and Najib broke his silence, telling a small group of officials that a deal had been struck, the first source said.

A press conference he had scheduled for 5:30 p.m. was abruptly canceled. At 10 p.m., Najib assembled his advisers and press officials at his residence for a briefing.

The public announcement came just after midnight. By morning in Malaysia on Tuesday, the black boxes were in Malaysian possession and a train carrying the bodies was heading out of separatist-controlled territory.

PUBLIC ANGER

Including the 15 crew, 43 Malaysians were killed on the plane, and in the days before the deal was made public some of Najib's advisers were urging him to make a strong statement, noting that leaders of the United States, Australia and Britain had all expressed outrage.

At home, anger was building over the poor treatment of the victims' remains. In the Muslim faith, followed by the majority of Malaysians, funerals are supposed to be held within 48 hours of death.

"There was growing pressure on the PM to reflect some of this domestic anger," the first source said. "They felt that they needed the PM to make a strong statement to the country to address some of these building concerns, and some of them began to craft a statement on Sunday afternoon."

But Najib waited. Malaysian officials say a carefully cultivated neutrality was key to sealing a deal that had eluded Western powers.

"In recent days, there were times I wanted to give greater voice to the anger and grief that the Malaysian people feel, and that I feel," Najib said when he finally broke his silence on Tuesday. "But sometimes, we must work quietly in the service of a better outcome."

Najib has cast himself as a leading moderate voice, founding the Global Movement of Moderates at a United Nations General Assembly in 2010.

Transport Minister Liow took two days before acknowledging - without assigning any blame - that the Boeing 777 appeared to have been hit by a missile over eastern Ukraine on Thursday.

Not once did he or any other Malaysian officials publicly point the finger at Russia.

"That’s the position of the Malaysian government. Our priority is not to get involved politically. We just want to get the bodies and get investigators to the site," said a government official who spoke on condition of anonymity.

While President Barack Obama blamed Russia for supporting and arming rebels who the West accuses of firing a surface-to-air missile that took down the plane, Malaysia kept channels open to both Ukraine and Russia, eventually getting direct access to separatist leader Borodai.

That meant when an agreement was reached it did not look like the rebels, or their backers in Moscow, were bowing to Western pressure, said one analyst.

"It helps, definitely, that Malaysia is seen as a non-party to the ongoing conflict on the ground," said Alan Chong, associate professor at the Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

"Whereas NATO, the U.S., Britain, are definitely partial towards the Ukrainian government. They have posed particular difficulties to the rebels."
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Old 24th Jul 2014, 01:34
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BBC interview (video + transcript) with Alexander Borodai, prime minister of the self-declared Donetsk People's Republic, on the crash scene events: BBC News - MH17 plane crash: Ukraine rebel leader defends conduct
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Old 24th Jul 2014, 04:06
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mickjoebill:
I find it sadly ironic to see a heavy military overtone in the enactment of this ceremony.
You don't find it - including the sounding of the Last Post at the ceremony (reserved for those killed in military conflict) - strategic rather than ironic?
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Old 24th Jul 2014, 04:14
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Re Paris Match article and diagram: It's a bit wrong.

The tail section was well separated from the main body of the aircraft. What is apparent also is that there was significant mid-air disintegration as shown by the wide spread of bodies. A headless aircraft flying to ground is unlikely to show that pattern.

I think the Paris Match article may be paying 'omage to TWA-800 in their artist's impression rather than looking at the ground truth.
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Old 24th Jul 2014, 06:48
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Jet Jockey A4
Thank you for your interesting post. Quiet diplomacy usually obtains a better result than loud accusations.
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Old 24th Jul 2014, 07:23
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"The tail section was well separated from the main body of the aircraft"

Only by about 700m. The important separation was the cockpit, as it was the first, which Paris Match shows. There seems to be nothing much backward of row 11 at the western sites and nothing much forward of row 17 at the eastern ones.
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