MH17 down near Donetsk

[MAINJAFAD]

That would imply, the rocket actually exploded above and ahead of the aircraft, while all graphics shown so far seem to show an explosion in line of the approach from below (probably making use of the momentum the warhead already has approaching at supersonic speed).

It is quite possible that the missile did intercept the aircraft from above. Most Medium Range SAM is this day and age do not fly directly towards the target from launch in the case of a long range engagement, but will fly a programmed trajectory in altitude that gets the missile to a high altitude as quickly as possible, thus reducing drag and increasing range. The missile will also either fly to a pre-programmed point in the air via use of an autopilot (with a datalink to change that point in flight if required) or track and follow the target in azimuth only. If the later, the missile's proportional navigation system will be set to a reduced maneuver mode to reduce the amount of missile maneuvering which will have to do for the majority of its flight. Both of these mid course modes again reduces drag and increases missile range. At a certain point of the missile flying it will get a command from the ground to go into terminal homing and it will steer towards the target in both pitch and yaw in a lead intercept course with no limits on the Proportional Navigation 'k' factor (which means that the missile is aiming at a point around 5 to 6 degrees in front of the missile seeker sight line on the target in the direction of target movement).

An IFF system maybe fitted to the SA-11, but without the codebook for the returns from aircraft, a totally pointless system as far as the rebels go, plus the IFF system fitted to Soviet systems was not compatible with western IFF/SSR systems which may be the case with this system (The IFF systems on earlier Soviet SAMs definitely weren't).

They may had had the camera system on the missile launcher, but if its cloudy that isn't much use for identifying the target either.

[p2re]

BUK in Torez

Torez BUK analysis has gone pretty viral and seems to be quite reliable in its mature form, like this one: о сомнительном буке замолвите слово. It's in Russian, but the key items are photos, videos and links to Yandex maps.

[SLF305]

That would imply, the rocket actually exploded above and ahead of the aircraft, while all graphics shown so far seem to show an explosion in line of the approach from below (probably making use of the momentum the warhead already has approaching at supersonic speed).
It is quite possible that the missile did intercept the aircraft from above.

If that's true and the missile originated on the ground somewhere ahead of MH17, it's possible that the flight crew may have seen the missile (and it's smokey trail) rising and maneuvering ahead of them??? If so, the CVR becomes of increased interest.

[AreOut]

I think that the intercepted call is genuine which would mean that missile is fired and the plane went down, so do the math what would be the probability that it missed the plane and at the very same moment a planted bomb was activated...

[underfire]

If that's true and the missile originated on the ground somewhere ahead of MH17, it's possible that the flight crew may have seen the missile (and it's smokey trail) rising and maneuvering ahead of them??? If so, the CVR becomes of increased interest.

That missile flies at Mach 3, over 1000m/sec. So about 10 seconds from launch to impact.

Really doubt, the pilots were looking down, nor would see something coming straight at them.

[ZeBedie]

@ZeBedie

Quote:
Is there any chance that a Ukrainian military transport would be heading East into Russia, as MH17 was? Is the Ukrainian government on good enough terms with Moscow for that to be possible?
The strategy of Kiev gov was to surround the rebel cities and cut them of from supposed logistical support from Russia. The only way they could supply their troops was by air. See map: blue and yellow (flag of Ukraine) is the area controlled by Kiev gov. Clearly they were fighting the situtation where their yellow area of advancement on the Russian border was facing the danger of being surrounded.



Similarly, the Kiev troops had a reason to activate their SAMs because they made a claim that it is Russian jets that are shooting down their transports, and not rebel SAMs.

Russian jets shoot down Ukrainian warplane over Ukraine: Kiev military

Clearly, both sides had reasons to use SAMs in that mess.

Thanks sadpole. I guess you realise that a 777 at that height would want about 220km or more to descend into an airport, so clearly, it wasn't going to land in the Ukraine. Doesn't this point to an unskilled (Pro Russia separatist) operator, rather than a Russian specialist detached to the separatists?

Visually, it looked civilian, on radar, too high to land in Ukraine and ground speed double that of the An22 they thought they'd hit?

[Boudreaux Bob]

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...088400000&_r=3



Some photos of Shrapnel damage.

[porterhouse]

Doesn't this point to an unskilled (Pro Russia separatist) operator, rather than a Russian specialist detached to the separatists?

It is impossible to discern this based on available data. One could be a skilled operator of the system yet with poor command/analysis skills - this could apply to either a 'separatist' or a Russian specialist, both could fit the same profile.

[OleOle]

Us: No link to russian gov't in plane downing

US: No link to Russian gov't in plane downing

[TEEEJ]

KatSLF,

The following link is my post on Metabunk. The Ukrainian Minister of Internal Affairs claims that the video was taken in Lugansk.
If it was taken in Krasnoarmeysk then it should be relatively easy for journalists, etc to find the exact place of filming.

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cla...-3#post-117549

The claim of Krasnoarmeysk comes from the following on social media. See link for copy of the social media post.

Google translation

In the Ukrainian public servers distributed video where militias allegedly trafficked to the side Russian gunman Beech.
But the video Krasnoarmiysk city, visible billboard advertising dealership to Dnipropetrovsk, 34. May 11, and is still under the control of the city junta troops conducting ATO!
On Boquete lacks one rocket. Pictures and videos of the towing vehicle (the same) has a shop STROYDOM. Address: Krasnoarmiysk, Gorky 49. Beech

That is the shooter was on the territory controlled by the junta and still there. What issues? All clear as day - Boeing Ukrainian military shot down here it's the most Buck, and now to the network leaked video was not compromising just stupid they are cutting all the blame on others, such as this "militia driven". Remain true to their nature brehlivoy (Odessites themselves burned themselves luganchane blew air conditioning, DNR shoots itself on cities and so on)

https://www.metabunk.org/threads/cla...-2#post-117195

[SadPole]

@TEEEJ

Graphics at links you showed identify the place where BUK with missing missile is moving through as Luhansk. Google maps links to the exact place and all.

Problem is - this was where heavy fighting was going on for several days and per official news releases all of Luhansk was "liberated" around the time when the missile launcher was supposedly being moved without any escort though there.

Luhansk Offensive Liberation: Anti-terrorist Forces Took Control of the South-Eastern Part of Luhansk ? Defense Ministry - Presidential Administration, Alpha, fighter, Lugansk, min defense, Security Service of Ukraine, separatism, terrorism, Ukraine,

So, the rebels fired the missile and were moving it toward and through heavy concentration of Ukrainian troops and not away from it? This is completely bonkers. Obviously the photo is old, doctored, or it is Ukrainian troops moving the missile launcher.

All it proves, like others already suggested that there were/are BUK SAMs in Ukraine and is of the same significance as discovering that there are Ford Trucks in the US.

[Ornis]

There's a fair chance MH370 was taken by a rebel and MH17 was downed by rebels, the first action deliberate, demonstrating great competence; the second by accident, showing none.

I seriously question the ability of the authorities to predict or prevent these rare and random occurrences, or mitigate the risk at reasonable cost.

It all stems from governments. The Malaysian rulers antagonised opponents, jailing one for "sodomy". Some Ukrainians ousted their democratically elected government, possibly with help from the CIA, and a civil war ensued.

The loss of life in illegal or unnecessary wars waged by Baby Bush and Big Blair, was "democratic". This is "evil" and "criminal". Simple but no help.

[SaturnV]

U. S. intelligence graphic of missile trajectory, as published in Washington Post.
Perhaps the same image in a larger format will appear soon.

[KatSLF]

All it proves, like others already suggested that there were/are BUK SAMs in Ukraine and is of the same significance as discovering that there are Ford Trucks in the US.

Clearly not all the pictures are of the same one, either. Open, covered, flatbed, self-propelled -- not the same one.

But there is one with a missile missing. How many others have they been using, lately? that we know of? did someone casually video one with a missing missile weeks ago, then post it a day after the plane went down? was Luhansk bristling with Government troops by then? or just been recaptured and left alone? would anyone non-military go up and challenge a passing missile launcher as to who's driving it ? especially if they're in uniform? or even anyone military if not at a checkpoint?

OKAY let's say it was an official one, not a separatist one. How does that change the big picture?
* the pressure is off Russia
* the pressure is on Kiev big time
* very red faces for USA
* lot less excuse for official troops to make this mistake, as assumedly they'd have more command and control in place to identify it correctly

I absolutely can't see it being deliberate, ie a shot at a known civilian craft.

[Hyperveloce]

What could be learnt from the CVR/DFR ?

Some picts of debris (some being reinforced structural elements) peppered with a high density of small holes tell already so much...
Could the recorders collect data between the moment when the plane was riddled by high speed incandescent metal projectiles (detonation of the fragmentation warhead) and when the aircell integrity was compromised (the A/C dislocated) ? What could be the usefull data then ? the many subsequent failures, sudden inertial perturbations,...? Could the inertial data & modelling give an idea about the terminal trajectory of the missile ?

[SadPole]

@KatSLF

All I am saying this whole thing with the BUK launcher on a truck is a red herring, designed to get everyone excited.

Either I am completely dense or these guys who fired BUK are. See what I mean.

Suppose that US is right that the missile was fired from around Snizhne. This is a good location for it from the rebels perspective. The biggest thing they have to worry about is successful resupply of gov troops (ammo, equipment or paratroopers) advancing near Sverdlovsk.

Suppose you are a rebel, you know you screwed up and you want to cover up.

- Why not dump the whole thing into a river or a lake, or blow it up and dump it? The damn thing is a tracked vehicle so all you have to worry about is not leaving a complete trail if you don't want it found.

- If you really feel you need to take it back (south) to Russia, then Snizne is only some 20 km from the border with Russia. No good road connects advanced gov positions along Russian border near Anvorosiivka, Sverdlovsk and the boonies you need to cross to get to Russia.

- You have a tracked vehicle, you don't even need a road. 20 minutes and you are in Russia.

- If gov troops are on the road you can drive through fields, its night, small chances they will be ready with anti-armor weapons to chase after you through the fields.

- But no - you decide to load the damn thing on a truck, thus depriving it of combat value and combat maneuverability - and without any escort drive it more than 100 km north to Luhansk - and place of very heavy concentration of gov troops. Why?

Conclusion. It is all BS. Some kid saw BUK being moved around and decided he figured it out. Perhaps someone purposely moved them around to add confusion and even maybe ditched one of the missiles to get onlookers (and sat surveillance analyzers) excited. Then you "get caught" and produce the truck and the launcher that was on it and show it to be some old stripped down junk incapable of getting off the truck and firing. You were just trying to prevent those other bad guys from having it for missiles, and other spare parts, blah, blah. Falsely accused, blah blah. Meanwhile, the real thing went the other way.

Critical at this point where was the damn thing really fired from? If I were on the ground I would drive around looking for fresh armored vehicle tracks.

Now - I am not saying these idiots were all that smart. I am saying - don't expect them to be completely stupid.

https://maps.google.com/maps?q=Snizh...,+Ukraine&z=11

[toaddy]

Vitaly Nayda, Ukraine's director of informational security was on CNN saying they taped a conversation between Moscow and an officer minutes before the launch reporting that a plane was coming.

"We taped conversations" between a Russian officer and his office in Moscow, Nayda said. "We know for sure that several minutes before the missile was launched, there was a report" to a Russian officer that the plane was coming, he said.

Who knows what to believe anymore with so much misinformation, but this did seem to make some sense. I'd been wondering how the SA-11 operators initially acquired the plane with such a narrow beamed radar. It's a lot like looking through a soda straw trying to find something. It's great for tracking but lousey for searching. It can search the skies around it but it takes minutes for just one complete scan 360 degrees around. I believe it was too cloudy that day to see it and likely too high to hear. But, if they did get a heads-up report on the approaching aircraft then it would be much easier to scan a small sector in the expected direction to acquire and lock on.

[Mudman]

Some pics from the cockpit area on this twitter feed.

http://t.co/mQ9eViLNei

pic.twitter.com/wft8yJRcxL

[Heli-phile]

RH cockpit window frame

This image shows cockpit seat rails and rear centre consul. Note at bottom what appears to be RH / first officers windscreen frame with shrapnel egress.

https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...7595/lightbox/

https://www.flickr.com/photos/jeroen...ream/lightbox/

same windscreen from different angle amongst plant. *note what appears to be shrapnel damage to pilots seat back just below top inertia reel.

https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...7595/lightbox/

[KatSLF]

Cockpit photos

YEP there's going to be something on the CVR for sure.