MH17 down near Donetsk

[OleOle]

The wind profile may help to get an idea of the drift of falling debris:

34731 URRR Rostov-Na-Donu Sounding


Can't say much about the accuracy.

[FritsHoogsteden]

The dutch safety council sais it needs more time to investigate MH17 but it will not investigate who's quilty.
Is that standard/normal? Does anyone know?

[1978]

Based on the flight path given by flightradar24, on a heading of 118 for the last 5 minutes, MH17 was flying towards TAMAK with only 30 nm to go and definately not towards Rostov (RND). Could be there was communication about an alternative flight path and it would certainly be interesting to find out if there was more to it...

[DaveReidUK]

The dutch safety council sais it needs more time to investigate MH17 but it will not investigate who's quilty.
Is that standard/normal? Does anyone know?

Any AIB's job is to establish the probable cause of an incident/accident, and to make any safety recommendations it sees fit.

AIBs do not seek to apportion blame or guilt.

[Lena.Kiev]

Originally Posted by 1978

Based on the flight path given by flightradar24, on a heading of 118 for the last 5 minutes, MH17 was flying towards TAMAK

On the RND civilian radar playback, heading from TAMAK to MH17 was 300, i.e. 2° difference. The angle is visible when the person performing the playback applies measurement tool.

[1978]

If it were going to RND the heading of the plane would have been more like 135.

[mennie]

There is not much information about this but the Public Prosecution Office (Openbaar Ministerie) is conducting a criminal investigation into the plane crash.

Source:
OM onderzoekt moord en oorlogsmisdaden bij MH17 - AMSTERDAM - PAROOL

[KatSLF]

The bit that gets overlooked is the fact that the heading for the airway should have been about 106. The reason it's larger is because MH17 offset from the airway for a while and therefore had to fly a greater heading to reach TAMAK.

So, you're saying it was earlier heading more directly east? that would place it north of where it should be. Would that be enough deviation for them to scramble some fighters up to tell them to get back in their right lane? maybe not scramble, but if they already had some in the air?

[BOAC]

One assumes the CVR and FDR will contain reference to any such deviation.

[blackbird69]

I have a serious issue with what here and in many forums is considered elementary:

That explosive decompression would automaticaly lead to in flight break-up.

This is more exception than rule. In most cases the plane remains intact, even on higher altitude.

In this case the total area of holes would be the size of a cargo door. Not exceptionally large.

So what caused the breakup?

[LiveryMan]

Originally Posted by blackbird69

So what caused the breakup?

I'd imagine it had something to do with the shrapnel punching large holes and dozens of smaller ones in the flightdeck skin and possible weakening structural members that failed when put under load from the air stream screaming into the fuselage at 300 odd knots.

Just a hunch mind you!

[OleOle]

Apparently the part that was closest to the detonation and has most shrapnel traces - the cockpit - came down in almost one piece.

[toaddy]

Is it conceivable that with electrical wiring and possibly hydraulics destroyed that some of the control surfaces could be driven into the stops? Even if that is possible, could it cause the plane to break up at cruise speed?

[SAMPUBLIUS]

what caused the breakup ?

So what caused the breakup?

crude example- at 60 mph, put your hand out the window. face palm down like an airplane wing. Now twist palm 90 degrees so palm faces forward.

feel the difference ? Now multiply that force by 8 to 10 and thats for a small area of say 25 square inches. Now multiply that by say 800 for a approx body diameter closed tube into the ' wind "

In addition, plane losing control may dive or nose up or twist or turn

Forces above 3 to 4 g would exceed max design overload - ultimate - in a few seconds or less.

[KatSLF]

That explosive decompression would automaticaly lead to in flight break-up.

This is more exception than rule

It wasn't just a simple decompression. There was also a big blast wave from the missile detonation, as well as shrapnel from it.

There were perforations which a "normal" decompression would not have. So it would open up along those like tearing toilet paper along perforations. There is that one piece often photographed, which was just behind the cockpit, curled back before it tore off. It would loosen the next piece it is attached to, before totally separating. That gives the next piece a protruding edge (and distorted profile) to start peeling back from.

The cockpit came down more or less in one piece because it has a triple strengthened frame and skin (to resist bird strikes and hail). And the main fuselage damage started behind the cockpit, so the floor and right side still held it on, while the business class port wall and roof ripped off in one joined piece. The starboard wall came off later, and the floor twisted and broke next. With the plane "scooping" wind, port wing control surfaces damaged and port engine not running, it would have to be falling in a sharply banked dive, probably the first half of a spin dive. that would be enough Gs to separate the floor and drop the cockpit.

The sudden change of centre of gravity, coupled with more "scooping" would have levelled it off a bit and certainly turned it to port about 80 degrees. Possibly adding a last "flick" to the tail that would be the last straw/Gforce to break up the rear into 2 sections. It all broke roughly along the lines where the sections are joined together, as these are the weakest spots. Wing tips fell off, either shaken loose or being hit by other pieces of debris.

With 1 1/2 wings and one dead engine, the heaviest strongest wing section then continued on to crash at a flat low angle, probably no faster than a fast landing speed (it didn't go in deep and it didn't leave a skid furrow).

Oh and another thing -- in decompressions where the plane remained intact and flyable, there always were PILOTS left to fly it and controls left to take their commands. Here the pilots and the avionics were the first to go.

[infrequentflyer789]

Originally Posted by OleOle

Apparently the part that was closest to the detonation and has most shrapnel traces - the cockpit - came down in almost one piece.

I would be wary of assuming the cockpit was closest point. We don't have (I think) much in the way of info or wreckage photos about the port side behind the cockpit for a start, maybe it was shredded even smaller.

The Paris Match article that was quoted earlier in the thread (Exclusif-Notre enquête sur les lieux du crash. Comment le MH17 a été abattu - Paris Match) is one of the best looking analysis I have seen so far, and concludes that the detonation point was next to business class. Not sure they are exactly right, but it is worth reading (google translate will do a passable job for non french speakers, or poor/rusty/lazy french speakers like me).

[SKS777FLYER]

LE MISSILE A EXPLOSÉ DERRIÈRE LE SIÈGE 5A, missile exploded behind seat 5A


I pray (is that permitted to be expressed here?) that my post be within the limits allowed mere aviation mortals....that the words communicated fall within the permissible correct and approved narrative, so help me PPRUNE.

[short bus]

I think it is possible the rear steel rocket part of the missle impacted somewhere into (through?) MH17 as well. That tree sized piece moving at a very high velocity would do significant damage.

[anonymousdefender]

LE MISSILE A EXPLOSÉ DERRIÈRE LE SIÈGE 5A

Fow anyone who dont know french what talking about this source?
If something hit a plane near seat No 5A then Seeker and Fuse can continue fly after detonation of warhead (which hit by multiple strike elements a cabin).
Then it another fact about launch site Snezhnoe.

[Lena.Kiev]

Originally Posted by short bus

I think it is possible the rear steel rocket part of the missle impacted somewhere into (through?) MH17 as well. That tree sized piece moving at a very high velocity would do significant damage.

I suspect that it made the gash in the left wingtip near the "safety line attach point" red circle. Not significant damage, but a trace of missile trajectory (from the front).

https://secure.flickr.com/photos/jer...s/14714323731/
http://aviaforum.ru/showpost.php?p=1593510