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MH17 down near Donetsk

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MH17 down near Donetsk

Old 8th Aug 2014, 09:35
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ATC Tapes

Malaysia wants the ?missing? Ukrainian ATC tapes | New Straits Times
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Old 8th Aug 2014, 14:00
  #1142 (permalink)  
 
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And, again, it doesn't fit with the initial story - far more believable - about the rebels assuming they were hitting a military aircraft. The whole story is as laughable as the poor Russian explanation.
I find even more risible the idea that the Russians shot it down. There is no motive.
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Old 8th Aug 2014, 14:32
  #1143 (permalink)  
 
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"I find even more risible the idea that the Russians shot it down. There is no motive."


There are only two logical motives:

1) the rebels shot it down thinking it was a military aircraft
2) some element within Ukraine shot it down deliberately to use as a modern version of the Lusitania

Taking the first as the simplest of those two logical options then the question becomes why they thought it was a military aircraft?

(Specifically an Il-76?)


Obviously there are a lot of possible illogical explanations as well for example the missile missed its original target and locked onto the airliner which is apparently what happened in 2001 with Siberian Airlines 1812.
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Old 8th Aug 2014, 15:43
  #1144 (permalink)  
 
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"The intercept reads:

"A bird is flying towards you"
"A bird is flying to us?"
"Yes. One so far"
"A scout [recon plane] or a big one?"
"Can't see because of the clouds - too high"
"Roger"

This sounds much more like a spotter reporting a visual observation of an incoming plane (assumed to be either a recon plane or a militar transport), than an order to be ready to shoot down an incoming civilian plane."

yupp, they didn't have auxiliary radar vehicle so had to rely on spotters, it's quite clear they didn't have any intention and it's quite clear it wasn't any conspiracy being it from russian or ukrainian side
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Old 8th Aug 2014, 22:07
  #1145 (permalink)  
 
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Forensic investigators identify 23 MH17 crash victims using fingerprints and dental records
176 "mostly complete" bodies were found.

Two of the victims were identified using fingerprints while dental records were used to help identify the other 21.
Article says DNA will be used to identify the majority of victims.
As mentioned earlier in this thread, visual ID by relatives is not reliable so leaving bodies in situ to aide investigators does not compromise identification at a later time.
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Old 8th Aug 2014, 22:15
  #1146 (permalink)  
 
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. We'll probably never know who fired it
Have we discounted the claims of responsibility, with video, that were quickly removed after discovering it to be a civilian plane.

Or the intercepted conversations alerting the missile crew of the approaching plane.

Or the 'Oh crap' intercept explaining that the plane was full of civilians with documentation.

Or the interview with the local commander explaining where the Buk came from.
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Old 9th Aug 2014, 01:02
  #1147 (permalink)  
 
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Basic trigonometry will tell you that the apparent size, elevation and speed of a high-altitude airliner and a lower-altitude turboprop are virtually indistinguishable from the ground. That's before you throw in cloud cover, sun position, distances involved, and the fact that MH17 was approaching head-on, all of which blur the ability to tell one from the other.

Basic trigonometry immediately tells you the altitude if you know the angle and distance (the two parameters Buk operator always sees).

Last edited by ASIP; 9th Aug 2014 at 01:52.
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Old 9th Aug 2014, 02:53
  #1148 (permalink)  
 
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Never know ????

I am sure that eventually the truth will out.


There is sure to be a very large number of people right now who know exactly what happened.


Just because no one yet is putting their hand up does not mean that they never will.


It is highly unlikely that those who know will remain tight lipped to the grave.
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Old 9th Aug 2014, 04:17
  #1149 (permalink)  
 
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Only one!

I agree...there is only one logical and factual event...the Russian supported rebels shot the plane out of the sky! They up. Period.

Gaud. The facts have been laid out in this forum daily. Pay attention.

The propaganda that has bucketed into this forum is disgraceful. Do we have to mount a daily fight against it? Please moderate the obvious.

A massive loss of life occurred in skies thought to be quiet. Honor that first.

Put something into this forum that is not speculation, driven by whom you fear or love or are paid by. It is disgusting to read the drivel of finger-pointing.

This is not some mass forum, it is for and by people paid to fly other people, a daunting and frankly damned heroic thing lately. Stop the propaganda and
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Old 9th Aug 2014, 09:57
  #1150 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by ASIP
Basic trigonometry will tell you that the apparent size, elevation and speed of a high-altitude airliner and a lower-altitude turboprop are virtually indistinguishable from the ground.
Basic trigonometry immediately tells you the altitude if you know the angle and distance (the two parameters Buk operator always sees).
A quick calculation shows angles of 18 or 21 degrees; not a lot in it for an inexperienced operator.

Speed, or rather rate of closure, might be measured by the system or alternatively left of operator assessment.

As we don't know (I think) if the launcher/operator was fully exploited and trained or only semi-trained the differentiation may not have been that obvious.
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Old 9th Aug 2014, 11:40
  #1151 (permalink)  
 
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Much as I mourn my friend and everyone else who was murdered in this event:
I still think we are dealing with a "Moron with a Missile " who, along with anyone in his crew, is in a ditch with 20 shots to the head.
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Old 10th Aug 2014, 10:30
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New debris map from the Dutch Rijksoverheid:

http://www.rijksoverheid.nl/bestande...ering-1600.gif

Northwesternmost debris on this map has a distance of 16 km from the main impact site and a distance of 35 km from the BUK launch site alleged by the SBU. The mapping is cut off there, so probably debris can be found even further to the north west.

According to my calculations that would take the engagement distance to at least 44 km from the alleged launch site.

Last edited by OleOle; 10th Aug 2014 at 10:40. Reason: typo
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Old 10th Aug 2014, 12:09
  #1153 (permalink)  
 
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what sort of debris, personal belongings or plane.

which way was the high altitude wind blowing that day

any photos of this debris.
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Old 10th Aug 2014, 13:23
  #1154 (permalink)  
 
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Northwesternmost debris on this map has a distance of 16 km from the main impact site and a distance of 35 km from the BUK launch site alleged by the SBU. The mapping is cut off there, so probably debris can be found even further to the north west.
More likely the NorthWest Plume of debris is light airborne debris from the impact location. The Eastern leg is more likely ballistic debris on or near the flight-path

Wind records at the time are roughly South-East i.e. light debris will fall North-West. The planned track has a significant Easterly component.
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Old 10th Aug 2014, 14:06
  #1155 (permalink)  
 
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OleOle's map appears to have come from here....where more info from the search team can be found: https://translate.google.com/transla...%2F&edit-text=
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Old 10th Aug 2014, 19:20
  #1156 (permalink)  
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Originally Posted by OleOle
According to my calculations that would take the engagement distance to at least 44 km from the alleged launch site.
Just to clarify terms:

The engagement range or engagement zone is that distance from the launcher where the launch sequence starts to achieve a successful engagement.

This distance is greater than the range of the missile. It varies by target aspect t o t he missile and the velocity toward the launcher.

Assuming head on and a speed ratio of 1:4, the missile can be launched when the target is at max range x 1.20
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Old 10th Aug 2014, 19:50
  #1157 (permalink)  
 
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The video from Russian Ministry of Defense includes playback of Russian civilian radar record. Based on it, a participant of aviaforum.ru determined coordinates of the missile strike:
http://sf.uploads.ru/cUoK2.jpg
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=ru&lat=48...7&z=12&m=b&v=2
Meteo: 757.2 mm Hg at sea level. Flight level 33000 feet = 10058 m, pressure correction 2,8 mm Hg = 34 m, altitude 10024 m (please check my calculations).

Geolocation of Buk missile launch site from several photos and testimonies:
http://avva.livejournal.com/2788606.html
It's betwen Snezhnoe town and Saur-Mogila hill, near Pervomajskoe village, Pervomajskij township, Chervonyj Zhovten/Krasnyj Oktjabr hamlet (AKA Beregis hamlet), Saurovka airstrip:
http://wikimapia.org/#lang=ru&lat=47...1&z=12&m=b&v=2
Elevation 231 m (from Google Earth 47.98245N 38.754101E).

Distance between launch and strike 22.5 km, altitude difference 9793 m, slant range 24.5 km, elevation angle atan(9793/22500)= 23.5.

The SAM suspected is the single radar+launcher vehicle from 9K37M1 (Buk-M1, SA-11 Gadfly) system, missile range 35 km distance, 22 km altitude.

I suppose that the radar+launcher vehicle crew expected a military transport plane similar to the An-26 hit at altitude 6.2 km 3 days before that. For elevation 6.2 km and distance 22.5 km, elevation angle is 15.4, elevation angle difference 8.1. But that's at the strike. The crew saw the dot on the radar screen earlier, at farther distance. In case of distance 35 km, elevation angle difference would be 5.6. 56 km - 3.6. 80 km - 2.5. I think that so little angle difference is quite difficult to notice.

If the SBU (Security Service of Ukraine) version is to be believed then I think that the Buk crew might be not informed that the target is a Russian civilian plane. They could believe that the target is a military transport.
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Old 10th Aug 2014, 23:40
  #1158 (permalink)  
 
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The map is a result of the dutch governmental reply to an independent investigation by rtlnieuws (a dutch commercial news agency).

RTLnieuws bought satelite images of about 137 km2 of the area where MH17 had crashed. They bought images from 16th of july and the 26th july both taken around 09:00 in the morning. These images were analyzed by a company named NEO. This company used software to determine relevant differences between the two images. These differences were judged twice by experts to determine if these were trivial or not (i.e. moved garbage can, livestock, etc). The debris attributed to MH17 is on the map. From the satelite images it cannot be determined what the debris is.

RTL nieuws published the map, and the dutch government reacted by a fact sheet which includes the map mentioned in the post above. The colors mean: GREEN: inspected by investigation teams. RED: Areas forbidden by the rebels to be entered : ORANGE: Uninvestigated area.

The link to the RTLnieuws article is here (dutch):
Groot deel rampgebied niet onderzocht door missie | RTL Nieuws

Here is the actual images used to identify debris:
MH17

The dutch investigation teams mentioned before in an interview that they were using satelite images.

RTLnieuws is trying to get reporters in the unsearched north-west area, but has not yet been successfull. It is unclear who has control of the area of the crash site.

The news agency also interviewed a refugee who claims to have seen the plane intact but burning breaking through the clouds and see it break into two. Couldn't find a link on internet.
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Old 11th Aug 2014, 05:42
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I wonder why russian ministry of defense keeps in secret that MH17 was flying NOT to TAMAK, but directly to RND VOR/DME. MH17 was diverted there minutes before crash, by request from Rostov's atc. They defiantly could knew that, because all telephone conversations between controllers are recorded.
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Old 11th Aug 2014, 06:01
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Originally Posted by TC_Ukraine
I wonder why russian ministry of defense keeps in secret that MH17 was flying NOT to TAMAK, but directly to RND VOR/DME. MH17 was diverted there minutes before crash, by request from Rostov's atc. They defiantly could knew that, because all telephone conversations between controllers are recorded.


And your source is?
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