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MH17 down near Donetsk

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MH17 down near Donetsk

Old 2nd Aug 2014, 05:32
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SA-11 warhead
http://i.imgur.com/wDXYVth.jpg
http://i.imgur.com/EwKyK92.jpg
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 13:50
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Found this image on a Russian forum. I couldn't read a word of it but thought the image was interesting. Can't vouch for accuracy. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-6...0%BE%D0%B5.PNG
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 13:54
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I noticed that there are several characteristic cuts through apparently massive structures like the window frames and spars:

Click on image for larger version:



Sources are the Akkermans images
Paris Match
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BtJZ75iIIAA6Ry-.jpg:large
http://ic.pics.livejournal.com/drugo...7_original.jpg
http://www.patrasevents.gr/imgsrv/f/full/889451.jpg

Edit:I agree with SAMPUBLIUS comment below. It looks more like breaks than cuts.

Last edited by OleOle; 2nd Aug 2014 at 20:40. Reason: agree with SAMPUBLIUS
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 14:07
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"I noticed that there are several characteristic cuts through apparently massive structures like the window frames and spars"

For me it's looks rather like points of breaking, not cuts.
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 14:19
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"Found this image on a Russian forum. I couldn't read a word of it but thought the image was interesting. Can't vouch for accuracy. https://lh5.googleusercontent.com/-6...0%BE%D0%B5.PNG"

The spread of debris is consistent with the radar picture of MH17 shotdown presented by Russian side on conference.
With the difference, that the target Russians called "an Ukrainian Su-25" that was hovering in place - was actually created by parts of MH17 falling down.

The light parts of fuselage broken by missile explosion or by explosive decompression & airflow, went nearly straight down, creating new "radar target" near the place of missile hit (the one called "Su-25")

The heavy part of lower nose and cockpit area, that broke off, flew ballistic a little further to south-east in direction of Rozsypne.

The main part of the plane turned a little to the left and continued to fly the east or north-east for several kilometers (as can be seen on Russian radar picture), then finally broke in flight (separated stabilisers and other parts found some distance from main wreckage) and has fallen near Grabove.
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 14:43
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Originally Posted by amizaur
"
For me it's looks rather like points of breaking, not cuts.
There isn't too much leverage on the window frames.
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 16:00
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re 2nd Aug 2014 06:43 ole ole

agree that window frame parts are broken, not cut. Either an aluminium machined forging or titanium machined forging. Had it been any kind of ' cut', the edges would be relatively smooth. The granular structure of the surface is the best clue to breakage. In other venues, a first look at the broken edge would also be somewhat typical of a fatigue break- which was obvioulsy NOT the cazse here.
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 17:02
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On the Russian version of the forums discussed downed Boeing missile air-to-air type R-27 (Su-27 or MiG-29). The version with the SA-11 improbable due to the absence of contrails and sound, which are difficult to hide, regardless of who produced the missile launch. United States promised, but did not provide the satellite picture rocket launch.

Although each version is certainly entitled to their existing.
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 17:07
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There are images from EOSDIS which show cloud cover at around 11:35 UTC but this is obviously not ideal. There may be other sources with a better time match.
https://earthdata.nasa.gov/labs/worl...5742,53.334961
This image was captured at approx 11:35 to the left of the central line and approx 9:55 UTC to the right.
As I said about 50 pages ago there were thunderstorms just to the South of MH17's path and along the path there was fairly consistent high cloud cover (up to around FL320).
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 18:48
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"On the Russian version of the forums discussed downed Boeing missile air-to-air type R-27 (Su-27 or MiG-29). The version with the SA-11 improbable due to the absence of contrails and sound, which are difficult to hide, regardless of who produced the missile launch. United States promised, but did not provide the satellite picture rocket launch. "

I wonder if on those Russian forums they can answer some very simple question about those theories:

- who could fire that R-27 missile ? Whose plane ? Russian plane would be most likely, because the missile would have to come on head-on course so be fired from south-east (!).

- why there is no such plane on radar data, even on radar data presented by Russian side on their conference ? If ukrainian fighter was there to shoot at MH17, Russians would be first to show radar data confirming that.

- doesn't the R-27 contain a continuos-rod type warhead ? The visible damage is consistent with fragmentation warhead.

citation: "All versions of the R-27 missile are equipped with the same 39kg Rod warhead initiated by radar-proximity and impact fuses."

- Why is the R-27 discussed ? Why is it a favorite, and not some other missile like R-33 ? I guess the R-27 is favorite because it's used by Ukrainian forces too.

- No contrails from SA-11 missile, right ? And shoudn't A2A R-27 missile leave a contrails too ? In the same way as Buk missile ?

By the way, there was a picture of column of smoke that was said to be smoke of the SAM missile going into the air, as seen in direction of Shizhne minutes after the shootdown.

edit: http://www.sat24.com/history.aspx choose date and time (17 July 2014, time 16:00 - that's 14:00 UTC) and you can see cloud cover at the very right edge of the map.

Last edited by amizaur; 2nd Aug 2014 at 19:04.
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 20:38
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@SAMPUBLIUS

Thanks for the professional answer! Point taken, it looks more like break than cut.
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 22:04
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More human remains found

More human remains recovered at Ukraine site
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 22:05
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Anything in cruise can form a contrail under certain conditions. It requires that the air be supercooled. I've seen contrails off propeller tips.
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Old 2nd Aug 2014, 23:00
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Passenger, the actual CVR recordings are seldom (if ever?) released to the public - only the transcript is released. I've listened to exactly one - and that because I was directly involved in the investigation. Suffice to say it wasn't a pleasant experience...


Even the transcripts (and FDR data) is generally kept tightly controlled until the investigation report is released - if there is something 'significant' it may be released to the public in a general sense during a press conference held by the investigating authority (e.g. the NTSB public statement a few days after Asiana that there was no evidence of an aircraft malfunction)
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Old 3rd Aug 2014, 01:41
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On the Russian version of the forums discussed downed Boeing missile air-to-air type R-27 (Su-27 or MiG-29). The version with the SA-11 improbable due to the absence of contrails and sound, which are difficult to hide, regardless of who produced the missile launch. United States promised, but did not provide the satellite picture rocket launch.



On Russian aviation forums there are about two dozen professionals. All of them laugh on the fighter and AAM theory.


R-27 (and R-73 just in case) has an expanded rod warhead.
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Old 3rd Aug 2014, 12:06
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Another leak on the CVR tape:
http://www.nst.com.my/node/19598

click img to enlarge:




The frame of the center port windshield is visible to the bottom right, and must have been detached at the time later images were shot.

Last edited by OleOle; 6th Aug 2014 at 14:05.
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Old 3rd Aug 2014, 13:09
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A friend just sent me these

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/e984n8mw8...oX0RsgkSjbfUna


Looks like the heads of the screws that secures the cockpit windows popped off.

Lots of pot marks and burn marks.

P5_030 shows some flight instrument panelling with distinctive shrapnel marks and some sooting.
I think its the Captain's side of the center pedestal, you can see the throttles and levers above it.
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Old 3rd Aug 2014, 13:54
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RE 3rd Aug 2014 05:09 cockpit windows (Livery man )

A friend just sent me these

https://www.dropbox.com/sh/e984n8mw8...oX0RsgkSjbfUna

Looks like the heads of the screws that secures the cockpit windows popped off.
Nope- look close at ' posts - screws '. the ' plus sign indentations ' are known as "Phillips head screw heads " commonly used in aircraft. Single slot screw heads are rarely used.

Just what and how they held anything is not too obvious, but most likely the glass/plastic/multiple layer windscreen.
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Old 3rd Aug 2014, 14:12
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Same images in higher resolution:
http://cdn-new-europe1.ladmedia.fr/v...red/P5_039.jpg
http://cdn-new-europe1.ladmedia.fr/v...red/P5_038.jpg
http://cdn-new-europe1.ladmedia.fr/v...red/P5_030.jpg

That same frame is visible still attached to the spar in the other image above.
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Old 3rd Aug 2014, 15:10
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WHOOOAAA-

U.S. official: Spy plane evaded Russian tracking - CNN.com

Note dates and timing and locations

Washington (CNN) -- The Cold War aerial games of chicken portrayed in the movie "Top Gun" are happening in real life again nearly 30 years later.
A U.S. Air Force spy plane evaded an encounter with the Russian military on July 18, just a day after Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 was downed by a suspected surface-to-air missile that Ukraine and the West allege was fired by pro-Russia rebels in eastern Ukraine.
The RC-135 Rivet Joint fled into nearby Swedish airspace without that country's permission, a U.S. military official told CNN. The airplane may have gone through other countries' airspace as well, though it's not clear if it had permission to do so.... goes on
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